And they said don't worry, it's just teething problems
First they came for the ๐
And John Redwood said the ๐ฌ๐ง fishing industry would adjust
And they said don't worry, it's just teething problems
And there the Minister wrote a letter saying ๐ช๐บ was wrong, when his officials knew ๐ช๐บ was right
They're still waiting
We do not recognise the numbers, the ๐ฌ๐ง Government says
They cannot even send the potatoes to Northern Ireland
So they set up operations in ๐ช๐บ countries, something ๐ฌ๐ง Department for International Trade acknowledged was a good idea
So they put on half a dozen ๐ฎ๐ช-๐ซ๐ท โด routes to avoid ๐ฌ๐ง altogether
And so the boss of the ๐ด๓ ง๓ ข๓ ฅ๓ ฎ๓ ง๓ ฟ๐ฆ "warns" ๐ช๐บ they are being unfair, but has no solution
No one knows who will do the jobs these people did once the economy recovers somewhat post-COVID
However you look at it, this makes *no sense*
It's not if you're pro-Brexit or not. It's about having a sensible view of the economic future of the country. Where is it?
/ends
More from Jon Worth
This is perhaps the most complex ๐งต on #Brexit I've ever attempted. But this issue really matters.
Business, possibly even lives, depend on getting this stuff right.
It is about the complexity of Brexit delay, and what to do about it.
1/25
If negotiations had gone to plan, it would have worked thus:
1๏ธโฃ ๐ฌ๐ง&๐ช๐บ agree a Deal, politically
2๏ธโฃ That is then turned into a legally ratifiable text
3๏ธโฃ Both sides then ratify - on ๐ช๐บ side Member States and the EP, ๐ฌ๐ง side the Houses of Parliament
4๏ธโฃ Deal in force 1.1.2021
2/25
The problem: we do not have 1๏ธโฃ yet.
And with just over 16 days to go - including ๐ฒ - we do not have time for 2๏ธโฃ and 3๏ธโฃ and hence no 4๏ธโฃ.
We *might* have time for 2๏ธโฃ - and that could prove to be significant (see tweet 7 below), but definitely not 3๏ธโฃ on ๐ช๐บ side.
3/25
*Essential* problem: by having spent so long talking (I think ๐ฌ๐ง tactic has been to run down the clock - https://t.co/8EJZAJZHqz ) the path to a normal ratification is now โ๏ธ.
Now ratification becomes harder - legally, politically, practically - with every passing hour.
4/25
The most obvious stumbling block is...
๐ฅ๐ฅ๐ฅ
... the European Parliament!
Parliamentary sovereignty, eh? A topic for another time.
Anyway, the EP has said it will not vote on a Brexit Deal this
Pretty clear again speaking to Mep's they won't countenance debating or ratifying any EU-UK trade agreement before December 31st #Brexit
— Shona Murray (@ShonaMurray_) December 15, 2020
Mep's are pretty annoyed at the very suggestion that it would be provisionally applied and the ratification would be a simple rubber stamp.
A short ๐งต
1/
Public health is not my thing
But Brexit is
And throughout 2019 and 2020 I have been trying to make predictions as to what will happen in that story. Lives do not depend on this, only my professional reputation (marginally) does
2/12
The three series of #BrexitDiagram I made in 2019 were extraordinarily accurate
Series 1/2
https://t.co/wOSzIXxJ2M
Series 3
https://t.co/E4fKeGoa5n
Series 4
https://t.co/yRsQ8mLGj1
Each series got that stage of Brexit right
3/12
The 2020 series was nowhere near as good - at one stage I had No Deal Brexit at 78% chance in early December - and that was not what
I own this error - I was wrong
I know *why* I was wrong - I thought the European Parliament would fight more on Provisional Application, and I thought agreeing everything in a week wouldn't work. I wasn't right
The Manston crisis / borders closing changed something too
5/12
The transport ministers from ๐ฉ๐ช๐ฆ๐น๐ซ๐ท๐จ๐ญ, and the CEOs of the state-owned ๐ operators in each (DB, รBB, SNCF, SBB), held a press conference about night trains today...
This slide summarises what they'd agreed

Don't get me wrong: night trains are *good*, and the trains on these routes will be รBB NightJet services, and รBB runs the best night trains there are in Europe.
I personally will be very happy to take these trains.
But so much for the good news.
Most of these routes have *already* been announced (Zรผrich to BCN, Rome, Amsterdam) - see https://t.co/7JnAo74tIX
Or have been even trialled (Vienna-Brussels) - see
That means only really the parts of the trains going to Paris and Berlin are in some way new - and even then we don't know how this will work (old Berlin-Paris night train went *through* Brussels)
In short: we're talking today about something like 4-6 new train services a day
In comparison: DB has 400 ICE units, SNCF 600 TGVs.
All of this is a *drop in the ocean*.
It all revolves around parliamentary sovereignty, Tory party shenanigans, and Johnson's need to survive and if that contradicts with doing the right thing
Bear with me - this is messy but important
1/12
Why will it be hellish?
We *know* that there will be a vote on Coronavirus Tier system on Tue 1 Dec, with the system to come into force from the end of 2 Dec
There *might* be a Brexit Deal at the start of next week as well, and Johnson having to OK it or not
2/12
Coronavirus first
I am not well placed to judge whether the Tier system is right (don't @ - reply me about that), but it's enough to say there are 3 grounds for critique
- do lockdowns work?
- does THIS lockdown system work?
- has my town/region been harshly treated?
3/12
Those are enough grounds for plenty of parliamentary opposition on the Tory benches, and on opposition benches too.
Labour could easily justify voting against in that some of the judgments on Tiers are not strictly based on the science
But what does voting *against* mean?
4/12
Were the vote lost, there would be little or no actual practical consequence regarding the Coronavirus restrictions - as discussed with Adam Wagner the government would almost certainly table Regulations using its emergency powers
Yes they could table new regulations and could use the emergency procedure so that parliament doesn't have to vote on them until 4 weeks later. So the govt has a lot of leeway (legally if not politically)
— Adam Wagner (@AdamWagner1) November 27, 2020
More from Finance
https://t.co/eGLqvb28o5

Loans are provided to borrowers for gold deposits or other guarantees, to the association's members and to unsecured applicants.
AQAH had a carried forward loan balance of $450 million as of December 31, 2019. This balance has been increasing at a yearly rate of 13.4%.

AQAH laundered around $475 million in 2019 in the form of disbursed loans paid to more than 20,000 borrower accounts; mostly to borrowers with gold deposits.
Deposits accounts have been offered to 307,000 members of the association, 83,000 contributors as well as to 600 companies. AQAH closed 2019 with an overall depositors accounts balance of around $500 million.
/THREAD/
1. Review your expenses and make a budget
It will help you see where you overspend, make a plan to save, pay down debt and start
Budgeting, the 50-30-20 rule, and the envelope method
— Kostas \U0001f468\u200d\U0001f4bc \U0001f4c8 \U0001f4b8 (@itsKostasWithK) January 6, 2021
Your first step towards financial independence
/THREAD/ pic.twitter.com/Tmuc3Itca5
2. Set your investing and retirement goals
How much do you need to support yourself in retirement and when do you want to
The most important number for your retirement: The 4% rule
— Kostas \U0001f468\u200d\U0001f4bc \U0001f4c8 \U0001f4b8 (@itsKostasWithK) January 7, 2021
What Is the Four Percent Rule?
/THREAD/ pic.twitter.com/8n1R1UZI5c
3. The earlier you start investing, the better.
Here's why and how time and compounding can become your
The Miracle of Compound Interest and the Rule of 72
— Kostas \U0001f468\u200d\U0001f4bc \U0001f4c8 \U0001f4b8 (@itsKostasWithK) January 2, 2021
//THREAD// pic.twitter.com/AOqd3kL6cn
4. Invest in an index fund
It's easy, safe, cheap, and the best choice for a beginner in investing, with not much time for
Jack Bogle, the Father of Indexing
— Kostas \U0001f468\u200d\U0001f4bc \U0001f4c8 \U0001f4b8 (@itsKostasWithK) January 8, 2021
How John "Jack" Bogle's creation impacted investors more than Bill Gates, Steve Jobs, and Warren Buffett combined
/THREAD/ pic.twitter.com/4wPi8x3cXn