Hancock: "It's your actions now which can make a difference."

Plays down prospect of immediate introduction of new restrictions.

Trump’s doctor: “This morning, the President is doing very well.”

Conley: “the team and I are extremely pleased with how the President is doing.” Says that Trump’s symptoms are now improving.

Second doctor says that President’s kidney function, heart function are both normal. Says that he’s not on oxygen and in “exceptionally good spirits.” Says that Trump said “it feels I could walk out of this today.” Says he’s walking around the medical unit.

Doctor is repeatedly asked about whether Trump is on oxygen. Says he’s not on oxygen “now” or “today”. Sidesteps question about whether he’s received it up to now.

Doctor says “since Friday morning” Trump hasn’t had a fever

BREAK: Joe Biden is inaugurated as the 46th President of the United States.

The Trump administration is over.

Technically another 9 mins to go for the official handover. But it’s a formality.

Biden: "This is America's day. This is democracy's day. A day of history and hope....Today we triumph not of a candidate but of a cause. The cause of democracy. The people, the will of the people has been heard. And the will of the people has been heeded."

"At this hour my friends, democracy has prevailed."

Biden thanks his predecessors from both parties "from the bottom of my heart."

With, perhaps, the exception of one.

Biden addresses the pandemic and its economic consequences: "Few people in our nation's history have found themselves in a moment as challenging as the one we're in now...but the dream of justice for all will be deferred no longer."

Earlier when asked about why the govt didn't act earlier the PM said “I think we were told about the new variant and the way it was taking off on 18th December and we went into T4 across the vast bulk of the country pretty much in the next 24 hours.”

This isn't entirely correct.

The new variant was identified in early December after genome data was paired with a curiosity that the rates of infection in Kent were not falling despite national restrictions and then T3.

So there was indicative sense that the variant may be playing its part as early as that and perhaps sport greater transmissibility.

On December 14th Matt Hancock informed the Commons, saying the new variant was in at least 60 local authorities already.

He told MPs in that over that week, there had been sharp, exponential rises in coronavirus infections across London, Kent, parts of Essex and Hertfordshire.

He said they couldn't be sure whether that was due to the new variant but that caution was required.

As a result, London and several other places in the South East were moved to T3.

On 18th December NERVTAG reported that they believed the new variant was indeed more transmissible.

On the 19th, the govt acted. This is the action I assume the PM referred to today.

Weird feeling. After 10.5 years and roughly £21,000 of debt- I finally paid off the last instalment of my student loan today.

Next month, for the first time- I’ll receive my full post tax salary, for the first time since I graduated.

Sharing as an example of how the system works in practice. In truth I only seriously started paying off the capital in the last few years, when I started to earn a good salary, paying roughly £400 a month off. I suspect many will never significantly eat into the capital.

That’s especially the case for those those under the new regime, who have over £50k of debt. I was lucky in a) lower fees (3k not 9k) and maintenance grant (not loan) still existed.

Indeed IFS forecasts that 83% of students from PST 2012 reforms won’t fully pay back their loan.

Of course those who don’t pay off their fees, the cost will eventually have to be absorbed by the Treasury. Having 17% pay back all and the rest some will still be cheaper for HMT than no loans at all. But we should recognise the a) odd conceit that we have a system of loans...

...which the vast maj will never pay back and that instead b) that graduates are paying in effect a topped up rate of income tax for many, many years.

Charles Walker, Vice Chair of the 1922 Tory backbench committee in the Commons tells TWTW that he thinks the government knew it intended to “cancel” Christmas on Wednesday or Thursday but waited for Parliament to rise to do it. Says many of his colleagues find this “egregious.”

When put to Walker that Matt Hancock said this morning that wasn’t the case, it was the briefing on Friday which prompted the decision, Walker says: “Hmm yeah...well I’d have to disagree with the SoS on that.” So he’s either saying Hancock isn’t being truthful or is misinformed.

Walker: “Surely at some stage a senior government minister has say I’ve offered my resignation to the Prime Minister and the Prime Minister has to say- very early I’ve had to accept this.”

Reminder- Charles Walker is Vice Chair of the Tory backbench committee.

Walker heavily implies it’s Matt Hancock he wants to see resign: “I’m not asking for the government to collapse. I’m asking for a Secretary of State to take some responsibility.”

The Charles Walker interview is extraordinary in what he is inferring. A senior Conservative MP is essentially accusing his govt and ministers of deceit about what they knew about the new strain and when and by implication the timing of the new lockdown.

1/ In @RayDalio's perspective, we are at the very late stages of the long term debt cycle. These long term debt cycles typically take 50-75 years to play out. This cycle began in 1945 when World War II ended and we began the US dollar-dominated world order.

2/ In the words of @RayDalio, "Right now, the world’s major central banks have the least fuel in their tanks since the late 1930s so are now in the later stages of the long-term debt cycle. Because they come along about once in a lifetime most people aren’t aware of them."

3/ Central banks have spent the last decade in a race to see who could devalue their currency the fastest. Near 0% interest rates have meant increased printing of the dollar, euro, and yen. Central banks no longer have the ability to tighten credit so they print money.

4/ Being towards the later stages of the long-term debt cycle there is a global sovereign debt bubble similar to what we saw in the 20's & 30's. In 2019, global debt-to-gdp hit 322% with total debt reaching a new all-time high of $253 Trillion.

5/ The wealth gap has also expanded to levels last seen in the 30's. Historically, inequality and large wealth gaps have eventually led to dire consequences. Periods of conflict and social unrest often marked by taxes, revolutions, or wars.

Inflation Is Coming!

Some say: Inflation didn’t rise after 2008-2015 Fed QE, so it won’t rise this time. Here are the problems with that argument.

1) From 2008-2015 regulators hammered the banks, so while the Fed’s balance sheet expanded, M2 did not accelerate.

2) In 2020, we used the banks to push out money, the opposite of the first round of QE. PPP loans were financed through banks and unemployment checks were direct-deposited.
3) The M2 measure of money is up more than 25% in the past 12 months.

4) That alone, 25%+ M2 growth, is enough, but we are compounding the problems.
5) Regulating fossil fuel production drives energy prices up.
6) Ag, industrial & transportation are energy intensive, and many claim they are bad for the environment. Result: higher prices.

7) Federal government borrowing and deficit spending encourages more Fed money printing, and artificially lifts demand.
8) Higher tax rates, rising minimum wage, and big government crowd out the private sector; reducing supply.
9) Demand up; Supply down! Inflation is coming.

Thread – Why the Latest Pelosi-backed $2T Stimulus Bill Went Nowhere

1. The Dementiacrats have been holding more virus relief hostage in order to force Republicans to cave and vote for another $2T Dementiacrat porkulus bill instead.

2. Senate Dementiacrats have voted against the Republican’s $500B relief bill targeted at REAL PEOPLE (small business and the jobless) multiple times.

3. A $2T virus relief bill was ramrodded through by House Democrats in March through July when it was signed into law by the President. It contained junk that had nothing to do with virus relief but was the price that Republicans had to pay to get relief to suffering Americans.

4. Dementiacrat bill that San Fran Nan wants to push down our throats now contains $2T more of this crap, as well as relief directly targeted at Blue states to cover pension shortfalls and other past Dementiacrat mismanagement.

5. It’s no wonder why Republicans are telling her to “piss off” on the latest $2T porkulus bill.

1. Been excited about @JoeNBC's sustained convo today about @KBAndersen's new book Evil Geniuses: The Unmaking of America which explains how the Republican Party radicalized OVER ECONOMICS over the past 30 years. It was launched w the radical tax cuts in Reagan's presidency, but

2. as the GOP evolved through the 90s & 2000s they became dogmatic about their economic philosophy- until it became a radical litmus test/position the party followed even when conditions screamed for different policy. It was a MIRACLE the party acted to stabilize the economy at

3. at the end of 2008 when it was crashing down around us (though they just barely did & some didn't and that's bc it was before the Great Purges of 2010,2012, & 2014). America doesn't know the hit job the GOP did on the American economy as they dogmatically pursued tax cuts to

4. the exclusion of everything else while denying any policy that could grow wages or improve the economic lives of the bottom 80% aside from the 2 or 3 times Ds managed to squeeze through policy while in charge (minimum wage increase in 2007-which was the 1st time in a decade

5. and now, of course, its been another decade. It's actually a miracle wages (all wages bc when the min wage is artificially low it affects all the wages above it, that's how you end up w $10 per hr EMTs & teachers) aren't even more out of wack w inflation. As @JoeNBC points out