BC ECONOMY

Larry Schweikart
@LarrySchweikart 5 years, 7 months ago 928 views

1) Well, also there is this:

For 400 years inflation has NOT been in a "mountain range" of up and down, but rather stair-stepped in giant increases, always associated with major transformations in economic arrangements.

The only way that debt comes down is if rest of world flips to trade deficit status w/US (I.e., trades accumulates $USD from prior trade surpluses w/US for actual goods & services). Not likely anytime soon. $USD as global reserve currency requires massive public debt.
— David "Most Vicious Dogs & Ominous Weapons" Herr (@davidcherr) January 15, 2021

More from Larry Schweikart

Larry Schweikart
@LarrySchweikart

@Garrett_Archer Let me suggest something, in love.

Earlier, you said and I agreed with you, that the Trump side should be looking to poke holes in their case. It would only make it stronger. I wanted you to be a part of the hearings here.

Now, I think you need to do the same.

I'd like to see you approach the state's case--that there's no fraud--with the ferver of a full Tumper.

Earlier you admitted that, yes, if 35,000 votes were programmed as a baseline in Pima, it would be possible if 35,000 paper ballots were inserted there.

That wouldn't . . .

be hard to do. In fact, while I agree with you that it would be almost impossible to do it statewide, it would NOT be impossible to do it in several select locations. When a few thousand votes decide an election, this would do it.

So I challenge you to start again.

Start with the eyes of someone who sees fraud (cuz is sure as HELL looks that way). For example, pollsters are wrong. But Richard Baris is rarely wrong. When he misses, it's by a half a point.

His AZ poll was "off" by over 4. Maybe he just erred. Maybe not.

Give it a try.

Show everyone that indeed you ARE the AZ Data Guru and mount the most substantive case you can for fraud before you set to knocking it down.

I think both sides should be represented before the full AZ legislature, under oath, questioned by both sides (NOT ACCUSED but questioned)

Larry Schweikart
@LarrySchweikart

1) 538 walks it back:
Right now, in fact, the polls are not showing a Democratic turnout advantage. Instead, based on a comparison of likely-voter and registered-voter polls, they’re projecting roughly equal turnout between the parties,

2) with Republicans’ demographic advantages (older, whiter voters typically vote at higher rates at the midterms) counteracting Democrats’ seemingly higher enthusiasm.”

3) Give little Natey a week and he'll see what we see: An R turnout advantage.

Larry Schweikart
@LarrySchweikart

1) A little story about "exit polls."

2) The year was 2004. Kerry was supposedly leading W.

3) I was active in a key precinct in Dayton, OH, a true bellwether for ALL of OH.

4) Rs knew if their voters turned out (due to R registration edge) W would win.

5) I was assigned to do "poll flushing." This is when you go to the precinct at 10:00 am and 4:00 pm and check off all the Republicans who had voted.

Then callers will get on the phone to those who haven't yet voted & try to get them out.

6) The first poll flushing was normal and expected #s.

7) I went home and hear Rush going on and on about the exit polling showing a Kerry win.

8) Some of the conservative websites were melting down. "It's over!"

9) Drudge was going crazy with "exit polls" showing a BIG Kerry win, especially in OH which he had to have to win.

10) A little puzzled, I did my 4:00 flushing. Fully 90% of all Republicans had ALREADY VOTED . . . with three hours to go!

11) Remember, if our voters turned out, nothing Lurch could do. We had the #s.

12) I got back home, went on the boards and told people to cool down, that W would win OH and thereby the election. (He was up in FL, unlike 2000).

13) Sure enough, the exit polls were ALL wrong.

Larry Schweikart
@LarrySchweikart

1) All of us are disgusted & fed up with the Republican Party (except a few perpetual grifters in DC).

2) There are calls for a new "Patriot" or "MAGA" Party. I get it. Good intentions. But there are structural reasons why a new party will fail & why we have to take over the GOP

3) When I say "structural" some people gloss over that as if it's unimportant.

It's fundamental. You don't build a house on a bad foundation. If you set up a commerce site, you have a structure as to how you take payments.

You may wish you could go outside that structure . . .

3) contd . . . but if you want your money, you have to either work in the structure or completely obliterate the site. You can't have two competing sites for your money.

4) Likewise if you want to get in your house, you may have 20 keys, but the car key usually won't let you in

5) The structural basis of parties is unchangeable. It was set in the 1820s by Martin Van Buren as a way to protect slavery with the DemoKKKrat Party. But it's also embedded in the Constitution with the "winner take all/single member district" system of representation.

6) This has resulted in a 200-year-old system that is set in place. First, Van Buren, to get people to support a party that would protect slavery, had to reward them with something big.

Jobs.

He created the "spoils system" of rewarding loyalists with party & gubment jobs.

Larry Schweikart
@LarrySchweikart

1) FL absentees, early voting:

*Dems as expected ("souls to the polls Sunday") had a good day and FINALLY take the early walk-in vote lead by 6,100 votes.

Rs total: 1,151,593
Ds total: 1,092,547

Rs +59,046 combined lead. This is very good for this point in the campaign.

2) At this point in 2016, Rs only led by 40,000. I could be mistaken but I think yesterday was the last day polls were open on Sunday, so the final "souls to the polls" Sunday.

3) As of yesterday, four red counties were yet to report. That would likely boost the lead back to 70k

4) I don't think the FL Rs in their wildest dreams expected to lead this late in the campaign.

5) Likewise in NV:
Clark (with its union "encouragement" for members turned out big yesterday and added net 6,000 voters.

However---big however---neither Washoe nor the rurals . . .

(5) contd. . . were open yesterday. My guesstimate is that would slice that number in half.

While this helped, the NV Ds are still looking at a significant--to potentially massive--shortfall from their 2016 numbers coming out of early voting.

6) Gotta make sure you compare days to days. Calendars and voting days differ.

More from Economy

Brian Wesbury
@wesbury

Inflation Is Coming!

Some say: Inflation didn’t rise after 2008-2015 Fed QE, so it won’t rise this time. Here are the problems with that argument.

1) From 2008-2015 regulators hammered the banks, so while the Fed’s balance sheet expanded, M2 did not accelerate.

2) In 2020, we used the banks to push out money, the opposite of the first round of QE. PPP loans were financed through banks and unemployment checks were direct-deposited.
3) The M2 measure of money is up more than 25% in the past 12 months.

4) That alone, 25%+ M2 growth, is enough, but we are compounding the problems.
5) Regulating fossil fuel production drives energy prices up.
6) Ag, industrial & transportation are energy intensive, and many claim they are bad for the environment. Result: higher prices.

7) Federal government borrowing and deficit spending encourages more Fed money printing, and artificially lifts demand.
8) Higher tax rates, rising minimum wage, and big government crowd out the private sector; reducing supply.
9) Demand up; Supply down! Inflation is coming.

$Cem Karsan \U0001f950$

Cem Karsan 🥐
@jam_croissant

1/x The market continues to try & shake out weak hands from overextended positioning by both HF & Retail...After a strong Vanna run up overnight, as expected, retail exuberance exploded on the open in the form of retail call buying, this fragility, paired w/a)Mean reverting flows

2/x from pinned Index Vol b) well documented, risk parity rebalancing flows & c) selling flows tied to bank EOY liquidity constraints. In combination, these flows have together have amounted to substantive selling pressures, strong enough to counteract the positive vanna/ charm

3/x flows, & point to continued likely index RVol an IVol pinning...Historically, the week of quarterly OpEx markets are notoriously volatile intraday, but also mean reverting like we saw today. I think it is fair to expect continued IVol compression & more of the same underlying

4/x chop. Vanna/Charm flows will lose their oomph after Wed 12/16 vixperation morning. There’s a window of weakness which I’ve spoken to for a month that falls 12/16-12/23. That could open a brief window that could lead to revaluation of the real risk & short interest,post 1/6...

5/x but the overwhelming 10k 🦍 of index Vol compression should still hold any correction in time & price in check in the shortterm and it’ll be hard to have anything blow up too bad in SPX land given how cheap & abundant Xmas Vol is 12/23-12/24. NTM, a stim deal & potential Fed

Katya
@ThatKatyaGirl

I have read through the grooming report from the Home Office.

Here, in this thread, I will take you through the mathematical hoops they have jumped through in this deeply flawed analysis.

Thread 👇

It is, quite literally, a whitewash. It uses all the standard statistical tricks to avoid concluding a stark and glaring conclusion, which is otherwise plain to see. That there was a sustained, targeted and focussed attack by Pakistani men on white working class and Sikh girls.

**Choose limited data points**

One way to force a conclusion is to only range over a small and carefully chosen set of data points. In this case, the report used a limited number of use cases which largely ignored the high profile grooming gangs of Pakistani origin.

Only Rotherham was considered in earnest, as it could hardly be ignored as the start of it all.

A typical data trick is to only use one troublesome dataset - generally the most high profile one. This gives plausible denial on accusations of manipulation of source data.

_This is what we call “the domain trick”_

Jem Collins
@Jem_Collins

🧵THREAD 🧵As it's the start of a new year, there seems to be a lot more calls for freelance pitches about. If you're thinking of pitching for the first time, or wanted a refresher, here are some of the things I find useful. /1

First up, finding work – here's what I use to find calls for pitches each week. But you can easily search these yourself or set them up as columns in your TweetDeck. Use quote marks so it searches for the exact phrasing. /2

I also try to keep a note of places making call outs that I don't immediately have ideas for – they're probably going to be swamped fairly quickly, but now you know they have budget – and they'll be less swamped if you come back to them in a month with a belter of an idea. /3

In weird Covid times, this is also a really helpful spreadsheet from @studyhallxyz on who is and isn't accepting pitches atm. This kind of stuff is often just useful to give you ideas of places you didn't realise you could pitch. /4

If you can't find an editor's email address, my favourite tool is @EmailHunter which shows you the format of an email address at any organisation, so you can take a best guess. 50 free searches a month. /5

artisanal fun-ruiner
@makokaazo

"if you demand more pay, we will replace you with robots" is not a reason to pay people less than it costs them to work for you, it is a reason to have your corporation taken over by the state, or dismantle an unwilling state and rebuild one that does.

corporations and governments are out here accelerating your deaths so they can monetize your remains while some of you assholes go "well $15 is too much"

$15 was insufficient 20 years ago, and it's insufficient now. pay people enough to feed their babies or they will kill you.

if people have nothing left to lose they will act like people with nothing left to lose

i cannot make it clearer than this

capitalism only "works" if you have enough police per so many thousand desperately poor individuals.

capitalism only "works" if you employ enough human beings to be the face of your blatant exploitation.

go ahead and automate and watch how fast people sabotage your shit.

if your government does not keep you fed, healthy, and safe, it has no reason to exist.

government - leadership of any kind, tbh - only exists to centralise the management of common needs, so we don't all have to individually scrabble to survive every day, on our own.

According to the Mahabharata, Ashwatthama means the sacred sound associated with the sound of a horse. He was given the name Ashwatthama because when he was born, he cried like a horse.

Here are some interesting facts about Ashwatthama.

- Ashwathama is one of the Ashta Chiranjeevi, Eight Immortals. Ashwatthama was born with a jewel on his forehead, giving him power over all living beings lower than humans. The jewel protected him from hunger, thirst, and fatigue.

- His strength is almost equal to Arjuna’s, especially in archery. Among the Kuru princes, he was good friends with Duryodhan, the eldest son of Dhritarashtra. They both have jealousy towards the Pandavas.

Duryodhan felt that Yudhisthir was his obstacle in inheriting the throne of Hastinapur, while Arjun’s talent made Ashwatthama jealous because he felt that his father’s love had been divided. After all, Arjuna was Drona’s favourite student.

Katie Mack
@AstroKatie

Light travels at about 1 foot per nanosecond.

Hold your hand up 12 inches from your face: you’re seeing your hand as it was a nanosecond ago. Everything you look at is, to one degree or another, in the past. The farther away in space, the more ancient in time.

You can’t see the Sun as it is now, but you can see it as it was about 8 minutes ago. You can’t see Alpha Centauri now, but you can see it 4.4 years ago. You can see the Andromeda Galaxy as it was 2.5 million years in the past. And so on.

With powerful telescopes, we can see galaxies whose light has been traveling to us for more than 13 billion years. We see them shining in a universe that’s still young, where gravity has just begun to pull matter together into stars and galaxies.

We can see something even more distant, and more ancient, than the first galaxies. If we peer out far enough, in between the galaxies, we can see parts of the Universe that are so far away, it has taken the light from that distance almost the entire age of the cosmos to reach us.

libertyandjusticeforal...
@Mark923to25

1. #Qanon told us that Saudi Arabia is a central piece of the puzzle in taking out the Deep State...we are watching the Deep State attempt to remove Crown Prince MBS and disrupt Pres Trump's administration's ties with MBS and the "new" Saudi/US coalition. Early in his admin,

2....@Potus sent Jared Kushner (JK) to SA on an undisclosed trip and told King Salman that business as usual was over, and if he wanted Pres Trump's support, Prince Alwaleed would have to be divested of $ and power; Alwaleed is one of top Deep State $ men and was tied to HRC.

3. @Potus knew that before he could begin cleansing the US and the rest of the world of the DS, he would have to cut one of the financial head's off the snake (Alwaleed). After JK met w/ King Salman, Alwaleed was arrested and divested of billions; MBS became leader of SA.

4. SA loves Pres Trump because he's a man of his word; SA could not trust Hussein or Clintons because they use SA for oil and leverage; SA has many factions, but essentially you have the new and upcoming SA that is attempting to modernize through Crown Prince MBS, and then you

5...have the old guard represented by Alwaleed who was one of the Deep State financial heads and loyal to the DS more than SA; SA knew Hussein was financing Iran to hold western world hostage, and SA was caught in middle of Deep State black mail; this is why @Potus was celebrated

UN Watch
@UNWatch

The UN just voted to condemn Israel 9 times, and the rest of the world 0.

View the resolutions and voting results here:

The resolution titled "The occupied Syrian Golan," which condemns Israel for "repressive measures" against Syrian citizens in the Golan Heights, was adopted by a vote of 151 - 2 - 14.

Israel and the U.S. voted 'No' https://t.co/HoO7oz0dwr

The resolution titled "Israeli practices affecting the human rights of the Palestinian people..." was adopted by a vote of 153 - 6 - 9.

Australia, Canada, Israel, Marshall Islands, Micronesia, and the U.S. voted 'No' https://t.co/1Ntpi7Vqab

The resolution titled "Israeli settlements in the Occupied Palestinian Territory, including East Jerusalem, and the occupied Syrian Golan" was adopted by a vote of 153 – 5 – 10.

Canada, Israel, Marshall Islands, Micronesia, and the U.S. voted 'No'
https://t.co/REumYgyRuF

The resolution titled "Applicability of the Geneva Convention... to the
Occupied Palestinian Territory..." was adopted by a vote of 154 - 5 - 8.

Canada, Israel, Marshall Islands, Micronesia, and the U.S. voted 'No'
https://t.co/xDAeS9K1kW

AKASH
@AKASHBH95801446

THE SCIENCE BEHIND YAJNA

Fire is, of course, one of the greatest discovery of mankind. Our control over the fire dramatically changed the entire human habits; earlier it was used to cook food, protection from animals and to stay warm.

Among the many applications of fire, one is Yajna (यज्ञ, yajña); also called as Havana (हवन) or Agnihotra (अग्निहोत्र).
Yajna is elaborately described in Yajurveda. In Yajurveda, Yajna is the greatest among all works (Karman). One can purify his /her soul by performing Yajna.

In Vedic culture, it is thought that the holy fire is the mediator between Gods and us; when the offerings are made to Yajna with chanting mantras, it directly reaches the Gods, who bless the people with rains, food, health, and good luck.

According to Apastamba Sutra, the definition of Yajna is Vedic sacrifice; an act by which we surrender something for gods e.g. grains (Anna), pulse, milk and milk product (ghee, butter, curd) fruits, plant juice (soma), etc.

As we said; Yajna is the contact medium for gods and

to seek their blessings.

There are many types of Yajna performed by Hindus for e.g.,

1. Rajsuya Yajna
2. Ashwamedha Yajna
3. Chaaturmasya Yajna
4. Vaajpey Yajna
5. Purushmedha Yajna
6. Sarvamedha Yajna

1) Well, also there is this:For 400 years inflation has NOT been in a "mountain range" of up and down, but rather stair-stepped in giant increases, always associated with major transformations in economic arrangements.

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1) Well, also there is this:

For 400 years inflation has NOT been in a "mountain range" of up and down, but rather stair-stepped in giant increases, always associated with major transformations in economic arrangements.