1) Well, also there is this:
For 400 years inflation has NOT been in a "mountain range" of up and down, but rather stair-stepped in giant increases, always associated with major transformations in economic arrangements.
The only way that debt comes down is if rest of world flips to trade deficit status w/US (I.e., trades accumulates $USD from prior trade surpluses w/US for actual goods & services). Not likely anytime soon. $USD as global reserve currency requires massive public debt.— David "Most Vicious Dogs & Ominous Weapons" Herr (@davidcherr) January 15, 2021
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First the Hill/Cook, now this. Folks, they are aware they are losing or have already lost the House. The last big vote suppression push is on.
Yesterday, two NC polls basically put all the "at risk" NC seats out of reach.
Before that, TX and OH's vulnerable seats were pretty much off the board (Sessions is ahead but close).
NY now down to two vulnerable seats with the R leading in one. Both are red.
3) UNLIKE THE LIBS, I will tell you . . .
But I'm not seeing a DemoKKKrat takeover of the House. At most I have them with 19 flips---but that is really stretching it and that's them running the table.
4) Meanwhile, we had news of a D-R potential flip in AZ1, where Wendy Rogers has gotten out to a surprising lead.
This goes along with the expected two flips from MN. There are at least two others out there, possibly three.
5) Meanwhile, in the world of real voting, in blue Montgomery Co., OH we have the following in absentee balloting: R=11,041, D=7,087, I/U=12,609
Well, you say, all those indies may vote D.
They didn't in 2016. Based on 2016 votes and voting history of EVERY SINGLE HOUSE . . .
Remember how much abuse we took for that?
We now have Justice Kavanaugh largely because both Trump and K fought.
2) Trump had every opportunity to bail on Judge K. I'm sure he asked the Judge, "Do you want to keep going through this? Cuz I'll stand by you if you do."
3) Either of the Bushes, McTurd, Minion,ANY other leading R would have bailed on Judge K the first time Balless Edsel talked
3) Do you RINOs, you neverTrumpers get it yet?
It is ONLY because Trump "fights" that ANYTHING gets done--trade treaties, tax cuts, immigration control, denuking Korea.
You can't have Falstaff and have him thin. You can't have victories & play nice with Commies or DemoKKKrats
Every single one was showing GOP turnout higher than midterm levels of 2014 and all but one (a county) showing turnout above 2016.
2) If I recall all the data correctly, D turnout/performance was below that of 2016 and, in the case of IA, below that of 2014.
3) Now we have two more data points to add: news out of WY that a net of 10k switched from D/other to R in last six months & turnout #s in Knox Co. TN
3) Out of 12 MEASURABLE data points--not polls which are opinions of what people "might" do in the future---every single one is favors the Rs.
4) I'll admit, I got a tad depressed for a minute yesterday when the latest Siena/NYT polls came out . . . before I was reminded . . .
4) . . they were making 60,000 calls to reach a mere 300 respondents.
5) Who do you think is NOT responding?
Conservatives, Republicans, people with families & jobs.
6) That means these NYT polls are utterly worthless with a margin of error of 20% or more
7) So once again, we have real world data about what has ALREADY HAPPENED, stuff we can count . . .
and unreliable polls of the opinions of people who won't even vote about what they might do if it doesn't rain or if they don't have a hangnail that day.
Right now, in fact, the polls are not showing a Democratic turnout advantage. Instead, based on a comparison of likely-voter and registered-voter polls, they’re projecting roughly equal turnout between the parties,
2) with Republicans’ demographic advantages (older, whiter voters typically vote at higher rates at the midterms) counteracting Democrats’ seemingly higher enthusiasm.”
3) Give little Natey a week and he'll see what we see: An R turnout advantage.
2) Bad news right?
3) Er, no. "And increases are coming from Republicans and unaffiliated voters."
4) Now, we have to watch unaffiliated voters, but my OH guys--"The Accountant" and "Ohio Wan" developed a statistical model in 2016 that appears to be holding for assessing how Us will vote.
5) It's not bad for us at all.
6) So, here are the raw numbers:
Eighteen days out in 2018:
D 68,760 (44 %)
R 39,080 (25%)
Us 48,206 (30 %)
D 75,675 (55 %)
Rs 33,964 (25 %)
•Us 26,854 (19 5)
"Republicans appear energized" due to the Kavanaugh
More from Economy
Here, in this thread, I will take you through the mathematical hoops they have jumped through in this deeply flawed analysis.
It is, quite literally, a whitewash. It uses all the standard statistical tricks to avoid concluding a stark and glaring conclusion, which is otherwise plain to see. That there was a sustained, targeted and focussed attack by Pakistani men on white working class and Sikh girls.
**Choose limited data points**
One way to force a conclusion is to only range over a small and carefully chosen set of data points. In this case, the report used a limited number of use cases which largely ignored the high profile grooming gangs of Pakistani origin.
Only Rotherham was considered in earnest, as it could hardly be ignored as the start of it all.
A typical data trick is to only use one troublesome dataset - generally the most high profile one. This gives plausible denial on accusations of manipulation of source data.
_This is what we call “the domain trick”_
of coronavirus is at large. We were told, in no uncertain terms, that this new virus CAUSES a brand new, deadly disease called Covid-19, the like of which we had never seen before. A disease so horrific that doctors were having emotional breakdowns after treating it. That is what
all of this is based on. The reasoning behind a global reaction which may well lead to the permanent destruction of all the things that make life a worthwhile experience.
In nine months of being immersed in this swamp of information, I have still not found an explanation of what
it is about Covid-19 that makes it so different from other respiratory illnesses.
I think the most important question is this:
What scientific or medical reasoning prevented the message to the public being something along these lines:
'There is a new strain of coronavirus spreading around the world. For the vast majority, it's asymptomatic. Most who have symptoms will experience a mild cold. A tiny number will suffer longer-term fatigue (as is the case with many other viruses). However, for the elderly,
Student debt is more concentrated amongst high earners, but disproportionately amongst Black borrowers. The plot below plots the average within Income Quartiles.
But those are the averages. What's the share that's above 10k? (This is the Biden current cutoff for debt forgiveness, so a useful benchmark).
For comparison, 20% of white Americans have student debt, and 31% of Black Americans.
Let's contrast that with say, above 20k. I was surprised at how high the share remains.
When we get to 50k of student debt, or more, we see it's only about 5% of the US, and around 8% of Black Americans. Strikingly, it's a huge share of high income Black Americans (this is a known fact in the education literature, I believe).
So what does this look like put together? Overall, we see a higher share of Americans with debt above 10k, and 20k. We would cover a decent amount with 10k, but miss Black Americans especially.
UK’s £35bn fashion industry warns of “decimation” from #brexit - big names sign open letter to @BorisJohnson urging action. Many of 50,000 SMEs on the rack due to VAT, customs and work permit issues. Stay with me/1
You can read the full text of the letter here, co-ordinated by Fashion Round Table @FashionRoundTab, but tl;dr it says that #Brexit has left a "gaping hole" in an industry that relies of free movement of professionals. It's a familiar cry /2
@FashionRoundTab The industry, already whacked by #COVID19, is now discovering that cross-border sales are a horror (VAT, Customs, long delays) and models, stylists, photographers that used to blat around Europe can't any more. They need permits, for themselves, for their gear /3
It is on one level amazing that this is only just fully dawning - as the musician industry found out recently - but fashion is not just big names and big companies. It's actually a mountain of small companies and sole traders often that feed into a huge (£35bn) industry /4
I've written about fashion models issue before (they need tier-5 sponsorship visas) and how that will erode London's status as a hub, but this goes so much wider than this - hence the #dontmakefashionhistory campaign - and comes down the lack of a mobility chapter in the deal /5
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Story 21 - it is about how stone elephant came to life and ate sugarcane - When Raja Abhisheka Pandyan met Ellam Valla Siddhar
கல்யானைக்கு கரும்பருத்திய படலம்
Raja Abhisheka Pandiyan went ahead to meet Ellam Valla Siddhar on the premises of the temple.On seeing the arrival of Raja, people surrounding Siddhar moved back. Abhisheka Pandiyan introduced himself to Siddhar &asked about his whereabouts.Also his purpose of visit to Madurai.
Raja asked why he performed magical acts, does he expect anything from him or people of Madurai.
Siddhar laughed & replied to Raja that he was from Kasi. He had heard a lot about Madurai in Kashi.Also told that this place is a Mukti Kshetram,so he had come to stay here.
Siddhar asked Raja if he has the capability &power to give anything that he asks for. Siddhar told King that he has power to do things even if he think of it.Siddhar asked King to ask whatever he wants & it would be provided, whatever these people had asked, they were granted.
Abhisheka Pandyan was shocked to receive such a reply from Siddhar,& he decided to test the power of this Siddhar. By that time, Raja saw a person in crowd having Sugarcane.
Raja took Sugarcane from that person.
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Sri Devi Karumariamman mandir is in Thiruverkadu, a suburb of Chennai. It is said that God Muruga came here and obtained the 'Vel' (spear) from His mother, Goddess Karumari (an avatar of Parvathi) 1/n
to fight the demon Suran and hence this place was called as 'Vel kadu' and became as Verkadu. As per legend Devi Karumariamman once disguised as a soothsayer visited Bhagwan Surya, the Sun God, to predict His future. 2/n
Not realising that the soothsayer is none other than Sakthi Matha, Surya ignored Her. Angered by his indifference, Devi Karumariamman immediately retreated. Bhagwan Surya lost His glory and the earth plunged into darkness. 3/n
Bhagwan Surya then realised His folly and pleaded forgiveness from Devi Karumariamman. In order to pacify mother Karumariamman, Suryadev said that His rays would fall on Her directly twice in a year and touch her feet. (in the month of Panguni (March- April) & during (Sep - Oct)
Mother Karumari Amman is worshipped here in two forms.A swayambu (self manifested) with only head visible above the ground and another one in a graceful sitting posture with all Parasakthi features,with four arms holding skull, sword, trishul, udukkai (damru). 5/n
For three years I have wanted to write an article on moral panics. I have collected anecdotes and similarities between today\u2019s moral panic and those of the past - particularly the Satanic Panic of the 80s.— Ashe Schow (@AsheSchow) September 29, 2018
This is my finished product: https://t.co/otcM1uuUDk
The 3 big things that made the 1980's/early 1990's surreal for me.
1) Satanic Panic - satanism in the day cares ahhhh!
2) "Repressed memory" syndrome
3) Facilitated Communication [FC]
All 3 led to massive abuse.
"Therapists" -and I use the term to describe these quacks loosely - would hypnotize people & convince they they were 'reliving' past memories of Mom & Dad killing babies in Satanic rituals in the basement while they were growing up.
Other 'therapists' would badger kids until they invented stories about watching alligators eat babies dropped into a lake from a hot air balloon. Kids would deny anything happened for hours until the therapist 'broke through' and 'found' the 'truth'.
FC was a movement that started with the claim severely handicapped individuals were able to 'type' legible sentences & communicate if a 'helper' guided their hands over a keyboard.
The answer is artist Will Hulsey...
Will Hulsey was the undisputed king of the animal attack pulp cover. You name it, he'd paint it attacking you in a pool of stagnant water.
Very little is known about Will Hulsey, but he worked on a number of men's pulp magazines in the 1950s and early 1960s including Man's Life, True Men, Guilty, Trapped and Peril.
Their audience was ex-GIs: during WWII the US Council of Books in Wartime had given away over 122 million books to American servicemen to read; this led to a post-war surge in paperback and magazine sales amongst these newly enthusiastic readers.
As a result the 1950s saw a raft of men's pulp magazines being published to tap into this market - almost 200 different titles!