1/ In @RayDalio's perspective, we are at the very late stages of the long term debt cycle. These long term debt cycles typically take 50-75 years to play out. This cycle began in 1945 when World War II ended and we began the US dollar-dominated world order.

2/ In the words of @RayDalio, "Right now, the world’s major central banks have the least fuel in their tanks since the late 1930s so are now in the later stages of the long-term debt cycle. Because they come along about once in a lifetime most people aren’t aware of them."
3/ Central banks have spent the last decade in a race to see who could devalue their currency the fastest. Near 0% interest rates have meant increased printing of the dollar, euro, and yen. Central banks no longer have the ability to tighten credit so they print money.
4/ Being towards the later stages of the long-term debt cycle there is a global sovereign debt bubble similar to what we saw in the 20's & 30's. In 2019, global debt-to-gdp hit 322% with total debt reaching a new all-time high of $253 Trillion.
5/ The wealth gap has also expanded to levels last seen in the 30's. Historically, inequality and large wealth gaps have eventually led to dire consequences. Periods of conflict and social unrest often marked by taxes, revolutions, or wars.
6/ As unrest spreads, the corporate media will find ways to get Americans to point the finger at one another. To divide us by race, religion, politics, class, etc. But it's important to remember that a broad systemic debt cycle lies beneath the surface of this social unrest.
7/ The years of anger & social unrest have only made their way onto the streets after decades of the bottom 300,000,000 Americans losing their wealth to the top 330,000 Americans. And after decades of CEO pay skyrocketing as fast as the homeless populations rose in LA & NY.
8/ In a capitalist society, this unrest manifest in mistrust of institutions which no longer serve the "common people"; government, media, banks, etc. The "common people" vote against the "elite establishment" thus you get the rise of Brexit & President @realDonaldTrump.
9/ Covid-19 stomped on the gas pedal of all of these systemic problems. The fed printed more money in three months ($4.3 Trillion) of covid-19 than it did in the seven years following the 2008 financial crisis. The wealthiest got even wealthier while the poorest got even poorer.
10/ The corporate media will turn us against one another while using the virus as a scapegoat. Remember, the virus did not make the debt bubble & we did not create social unrest. Nonetheless, as Americans, we are all in this same boat facing the end of this long-term debt cycle.

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Interesting thread, but I don't think ecosocialists or degrowthers are arguing that if German socialists had come to power the world would be green by now. Socialism is not automatically green. Eco-socialism is what it says - a green version of socialism - to be tested /1


The historical counterfactual also in not totally convincing. So let's assume Germany and Europe went socialist. The world economy would have evolved exactly the same way it did? 🤔 I doubt it, this is too deterministic. Examples: /2

We do not know if the transition from coal to oil would have taken place when it took place, the way it did. From Timothy Mitchell we know that oil was a fix for capitalism to bypass the labour strikes of coal workers. One would think that socialists would treat workers better /3

We also do not know if socialist governments would strong arm the Middle East the way capitalists did, starting wars to secure cheap oil, and setting up puppet governments. One would want to think that Rosa Luxembourg would not go down that path..../4

We also do not know if they would have continued colonial unequal exchange, extracting raw materials as cheap as possible from the rest of the world. Without cheap oil and cheap materials, it is anyone's guess if GDP and CO2 would be where it is now. /5

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