1/ Thread: "A Silicon Valley Ponzi Scheme"
Thanks to @chamath for laying this out in Social Capital's 2018 annual letter.
I've always appreciated his outspokenness.
This is creating a big bill that will soon come due...
But it's not who you think (that does), and the dynamics we’ve entered is in many ways creating a dangerous, high stakes Ponzi scheme.
Someone has to pay for the outrageous costs of this style of growth. Will it be VCs?
Eg: VCs habitually invest in one another’s companies during later rounds, bidding up rounds to valuations that allow for generous markups on their funds' performance.
if you’re a VC with a $200 million dollar fund, you’re able to draw $4million each year in fees.
Most funds never return enough profit for managers to see a dime of carried interest.
If u can show marked up paper returns & then parlay those returns into a newer, larger fund—say $500 million—you now have a fresh $10 million a year to use as you see fit.
There’s some deep misalignment here...
Partly why American healthcare is so expensive is bcos insurers, who play a key middleman role in setting prices for medical care, have a 2-sided biz model:
High costs allow them to charge higher premiums, allowing them to pull steadily more and more money out of patients’ and payers’ pockets.
In the end, both, patients and payers are the ones who end up as bag holders footing the bill.
The same thing is happening in today’s venture world.
Just as insurers’ biz model translates to higher costs of patient care,
So if its not VCs, who ends up holding the bag?
It’s still not who you’d expect.
In some cases, high prices may even work to their advantage.
Unlike the other pass-the-buck schemes
The real bill ends up getting shuffled outta sight to 2 other groups.
The 1st as u may guess are early stage funds’ limited partners, particularly future limited partners investing into the next fund.
Marking up Fund IV to raise money for more mgmt fees out of Fund V is so effective bcos fundraising can happen much faster than the long & difficult job of building businesses & creating real enterprise value
The second group of people left holding the bag is far more tragic: the employees at startups.
Although originally helpful as a way to incentivize and reward employees for working hard for an uncertain outcome,
Overall, you can understand how this arrangement endures:
Those companies then go spend the money on more user growth, often in zero-sum competition w/ one another.
What is the antidote here? Its 2-fold.
The 2nd is to break away from the MLM scheme that the VC-LP-user growth game has become.
It’s time to wait patiently, as the air is slowly let out of this bizarre Ponzi balloon created by the venture capital industry.
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Q: How will I know if I am getting paid?
A: You will get a message from Team Snapchat that looks like the below message 2-3 weeks after the snap has gone live. At this point it important that you verify your email address.
Q: How long after I’ve been notified I qualify, will I know for how much?
A: my experience is that usually 7-10 days after you get the qualifying message, you get a message with the amount, it will look like this. This message will include a unique access code for HyperWallet.
Q: How do I set up my HyperWallet?
A: Around three weeks after you get the payment amount you will get an email to your verified email from Snapchat Pay. It will look like this and will require you to fill out some tax forms, takes like 10 min.
Q: How long does it take to actually get the money in my account?
A: it took me like 7 days from when I had my HyperWallet approved before I got the money into my HyperWallet account. I recommend you set up auto withdraw. You can send money to PayPal, Venmo or bank account.
You are interviewed for multiple skills simultaneously. Cognitive skills, communication, leadership are a few to name. If the point is not finding a solution, then what is it? Let me explain.
Your interviewers try to understand what it feels like to work with you on a daily basis. An interview question is just a tool in achieving that, it is not there to specifically measure your skills on a topic but a tool to understand the depth of your thinking.
Before the interview starts, ask them what they want to get out of this interview. Good interviewers should already have a plan and a set of expectations. Ask them what you should do. Don't start coding yet. Ask them you should produce. Discussion, diagrams, pseudo code, code?
Then, start cracking the question. List whatever questions you think it is important to solve this question, ask your edge cases. Get to a point where you are discussing about pros/cons of the solutions. These steps are critical. Don't just start coding. Have a consensus first.
📸 Social disposable camera app
Create a digital "roll" with friends. Take pictures from the roll. You can't see them until: the roll is used up, a time limit expires, or you get to a specific location.
🎙 Asynch interview platform
Send a guest a video or audio clip asking a question. Guest replies when able with same medium. Repeat. When done, share produced video/podcast.
✅ 24 Hour Startup Checklist/Overlay
A web app to track the progress of your project: ideation, naming, shipping code, launching.
Page can also be a dynamic browser overlay for live streaming.
Have tools for polls, surveys, sharing, launching to various outlets, etc.
👩⚖️ Healthcare "Lawyers"
If health insurance screws you over, no one has your back but you. Instead, can pay a small monthly fee to a service to take care of BS like this for you should issues arise.
Take the first sentence of this paragraph. Now, technically the clause--"who proposed a link between race and IQ"--could simply modify "Murray" and have nothing to do w/ SSC.
But 99% of readers are going to assume that the clause actually defines SSC's alignment with Murray. In other words, the author is strongly implying that SSC shares Murray's racist beliefs.
And that would be big(!)...if it were at all true. It is not. Indeed, if you go to the hyperlink, you'll find that SSC's purported "alignment" has nothing to do with Murray's "Bell Curve."
What SSC & Murray agree about is that poverty is partly hereditable and thus very sticky, so much so that the proposition job retraining programs will meaningfully address mass economic disruption is a pie-in-the-sky fantasy.
But now, Amazon’s ad business is huge: it’s on a $30B+ annual run rate (more than 2x the combined sales of Twitter, Snap and Pinterest).
Here’s how it happened 🧵
1/ Amazon doesn’t break out its ad business separately in financial filings. However, most analyst believe ads make up the majority of its “Other” revenue segment.
This figure has exploded from $1B in 2015 to a current annual run rate of ~$32B.
2/ In 2009, Bezos said “ads are the price you pay for a crappy product”.
But the business is so lucrative that Amazon’s interface has been swamped with ads:
◻️ First 3-7 search results (left in red)
◻️ Most of the product page (right in blue)
3/ Prior to the rise of ads, Amazon set out to build the ultimate organic customer recommendations engine.
The approach was codified in a famed 2003 research paper: “Amazon Recommendations: Item-to-Item Collaborative Filtering.”
4/ In recent years, Amazon organic recommendations:
◻️"Customers who bought this also bought this"
◻️"Customers who viewed also viewed"
Have been replaced w/ ads:
◻️ "Sponsored products related to"
◻️ "Brands related to this category"
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Recently, Harsimrat Kaur @HarsimratBadal_ claimed in parliament that Guru Tegh Bahadur protected the religion of Hindus despite of being a Non-Hindu. And Hindus owe a huge favor to others.
In this thread, I will show that Guru Tegh Bahadur was every inch a Hindu!
Let us begin with some contemporary sources.
Guru Tegh Bahadur visited the holy Triveni at Prayaga in 1662 CE.
This visit is documented in contemporary Bhat Vahi records.
Unlike those unpublished "bhat vahis", this one was published by Sikh historian Madanjit Kaur (1978)
This Bhat Vahi was signed by Guru Tegh Bahadur.
The content of the letter is particularly striking.
Guru Tegh Bahadur calls himself a devotee of Naina Devi.
Note. A devotee of Naina Devi. He does not mention Akal Purakh or Waheguru.
In the record, Guru Tegh Bahadur identifies himself as Sodhi Khatri by Varna and Kaushish by gotra.
This is exactly how the followers of orthodox Hinduism identify themselves to this date!
Further, Guru Tegh Bahadur appoints a brahmin purohit named Bhoj Raj.
He orders Sodhis of his line and all his Sikh followers to obey the aforementioned Brahmin Purohit.
This practice of appointing purohits is just what is referred to by some people as "Brahmanical Hinduism"
Today I'm going to expose these so called reviver of Sanatan dharma.
Arya samaj's main book which they treat as their bible is Satyarth Prakasha. Which was written by "Maharishi" Dayanand Saraswati.
Dayanand Condemned Idol worship and blamed it on jains . like really??
The book peddles hate against several Hindu sects.
here is hate against Vaishnavas
Decoded his way of analysis/logics for everyone to easily understand.
1. Analysis of volatility, how to foresee/signs.
3. When to sell options
4. Diff category of days
5. How movement of option prices tell us what will happen
1. Keeps following volatility super closely.
Makes 7-8 different strategies to give him a sense of what's going on.
Whichever gives highest profit he trades in.
I am quite different from your style. I follow the market's volatility very closely. I have mock positions in 7-8 different strategies which allows me to stay connected. Whichever gives best profit is usually the one i trade in.— Sarang Sood (@SarangSood) August 13, 2019
2. Theta falls when market moves.
Falls where market is headed towards not on our original position.
Anilji most of the time these days Theta only falls when market moves. So the Theta actually falls where market has moved to, not where our position was in the first place. By shifting we can come close to capturing the Theta fall but not always.— Sarang Sood (@SarangSood) June 24, 2019
3. If you're an options seller then sell only when volatility is dropping, there is a high probability of you making the right trade and getting profit as a result
He believes in a market operator, if market mover sells volatility Sarang Sir joins him.
This week has been great so far. The main aim is to be in the right side of the volatility, rest the market will reward.— Sarang Sood (@SarangSood) July 3, 2019
4. Theta decay vs Fall in vega
Sell when Vega is falling rather than for theta decay. You won't be trapped and higher probability of making profit.
There is a difference between theta decay & fall in vega. Decay is certain but there is no guaranteed profit as delta moves can increase cost. Fall in vega on the other hand is backed by a powerful force that sells options and gives handsome returns. Our job is to identify them.— Sarang Sood (@SarangSood) February 12, 2020
🕵️🔎 Politicians, Musicians, Clergy, Bankers, Journalists, Human Rights, Artificial Intelligence, Sustainability, Corporations & Agriculture
2. In previous threads I have looked at 🇮🇪 key players in the Trilateral Commission as well as 🇮🇪 people who have attended the Bilderberger meetings. I also looked at the 🇮🇪 in the Young Global Leaders which is a site run by the WEF. You will see a lot of crossover between them.
3. The purpose of this thread is to compile all the Irish members into one thread for ease of access and reading rather than having to dive through the WEF site. This is by no means definitive and I will be adding more over time when they pop out of the woodwork.
4. Ireland’s WEF members are drawn from all walks of life but can be split into 2 separate areas. The WEF calls the first category “people” and the 2nd one “agenda contributors”. In total Ireland has a minimum of 61 members. Some of the names will be familiar and others will not
5. In this thread I’m just going to concentrate on the 21 people (there are probably a lot more). There are also 40 “agenda contributors” which I will cover in a separate thread. The agenda contributors are those who write articles or do research for the WEF site.
These are my observations based on what I saw and the evidence that’s been collected so far. I reserve the right to adjust my analysis as needed.
Let’s talk about the organization of the coup first. Seeing some people insist that the coup must have been highly planned and coordinated.
Yes and no. This was a #StochasticCoup. We’ll see little evidence of direct communication between Trump and the insurrectionists.
Within the insurrectionists, there was not one group that executed the storming of the Capitol.
Rather, there were a number of smaller groups working independently towards the same goal. I expect you’ll see little evidence that these various groups communicated with each other.
What you will see is detailed planning and coordination within these small groups.
Then there were the joyriders, those Trump supporters who weren’t directly involved in any plotting but who were more than happy to go along for the ride once the coup was in motion.
After four years, the insurrectionists were carefully attuned to Trump’s messaging.
Every tweet and statement of his was treated as marching orders and carefully dissected for meaning.
It’s why shutting down Trump’s Twitter account was so important.