Someone tosses a coin ten times; it comes up heads every time. What's the probability it comes up heads on the next toss? (Pretty darn high—part of @nntaleb's work is unprogramming you from your high-school rules of thumb.) Now consider the (related) Gambler's fallacy...
Very interesting thread. For more general cases (\U0001f447) I proposed skin in the game as \u201cwhat makes imitation work\u201d but didn\u2019t consider professional scammers incl. casinos— Luca Dellanna (@DellAnnaLuca) January 18, 2021
Both scammers and casinos artificially inflate the crowd to provide an illusion of \u201cI can\u2019t be the only idiot.\u201d https://t.co/cMUrQpxc15
More from Simon DeDeo
As a dean of a major academic institution, I could not have said this. But I will now. Requiring such statements in applications for appointments and promotions is an affront to academic freedom, and diminishes the true value of diversity, equity of inclusion by trivializing it. https://t.co/NfcI5VLODi— Jeffrey Flier (@jflier) November 10, 2018
We know that elite institutions like the one Flier was in (partial) charge of rely on irrelevant status markers like private school education, whiteness, legacy, and ability to charm an old white guy at an interview.
Harvard's discriminatory policies are becoming increasingly well known, across the political spectrum (see, e.g., the recent lawsuit on discrimination against East Asian applications.)
It's refreshing to hear a senior administrator admits to personally opposing policies that attempt to remedy these basic flaws. These are flaws that harm his institution's ability to do cutting-edge research and to serve the public.
Harvard is being eclipsed by institutions that have different ideas about how to run a 21st Century institution. Stanford, for one; the UC system; the "public Ivys".
One thing that’s always struck me is how *late* probability theory came in intellectual history. We had integral calculus before we had probability. And probability is insanely simple, mathematically!
I’m tempted to say that probability theory is not, in fact, Lindy. Frequentist probability is (for all the usual reasons) best understood as a heuristic. Bayesian interpretations, by contrast, take the remarkable step of tying it to mental states.
You have to work very hard to convince yourself that beliefs really are “degrees of belief in sets of events” (or whatever). It’s not natural—and I won’t rehearse the whole story about rational choice and decision theory...
So with those critiques in the back of my mind, when I read David Wallace’s decision-theoretic account of the Born Rule I was rather primed to say, hey, so what? Meaning...
Imagine for a moment the most obscurantist, jargon-filled, po-mo article the politically correct academy might produce. Pure SJW nonsense. Got it? Chances are you're imagining something like the infamous "Feminist Glaciology" article from a few years back.https://t.co/NRaWNREBvR pic.twitter.com/qtSFBYY80S— Jeffrey Sachs (@JeffreyASachs) October 13, 2018
The article is, at heart, deeply weird, even essentialist. Here, for example, is the claim that proposing climate engineering is a "man" thing. Also a "man" thing: attempting to get distance from a topic, approaching it in a disinterested fashion.
Also a "man" thing—physical courage. (I guess, not quite: physical courage "co-constitutes" masculinist glaciology along with nationalism and colonialism.)
There's criticism of a New York Times article that talks about glaciology adventures, which makes a similar point.
At the heart of this chunk is the claim that glaciology excludes women because of a narrative of scientific objectivity and physical adventure. This is a strong claim! It's not enough to say, hey, sure, sounds good. Is it true?
Some thoughts worked out in a letter to a friend, which is the kind of thing you do when off Twitter for a glorious week. (🧵)
“Chance is ignorance”—the Bayesian story; all probabilities represent states of mind, not states of the world. One *could* put (some) chances “in the world”, but let’s take Occam’s Razor seriously...
That the probability of a fair coin coming up heads is 50% simply means that marginalizing (tracing, as the physicists say) over the hidden facts leaves you, nearly, maximally ignorant of the outcome.
Quantum uncertainty (access below!) poses an apparent challenge to this story. There seems to be nothing to be ignorant about when it comes to (say) electron spin—there is nothing “inside” the
The electron is a simple object, in other words. So where does the uncertainty come from? One could follow David Wallace’s wonderful interpretation in terms of chaotic dynamics and decoherence, but let’s see if we can take another route...
This is the first deletion, back in 2014. A bit hard to read between the lines, but the basic story that an admin had Stickland's page "speedy deleted"—i.e., deleted without debate. The method was something called Copyright Jujitsu.
In particular, the admin had the page deleted not because of notability, but because it included a photograph of Strickland that had ambiguous copyright status. This is a method that people developed to get rid of content they didn't want, but also didn't want to debate.
"Copyright Jujitsu" because it is usually used against spam from companies; a PR officer uploads promotional material to Wikipedia. Instead of debating whether it's neutral, the admin can say "we'd love to have it, but the material appears to violate your company's copyright".
Usually the PR office and the IP office are separate in a company, and the idea of releasing promotional material under public domain is such a legal nightmare that the PR person goes away.
More from Crypto
This has been a challenging year all around, but we’ve witnessed incredible commitment to building on Lightning.
The #bitcoin gaming community specifically used this year as an opportunity to bring people together through gaming.
2/ This year we’ve seen the #bitcoin gaming experiment:
- Onboard new entrants to #btc
- Make microearning for play possible
- Create new ad models to engage audiences
- Complete the in-game circular economy
- Add value to esports, connecting streamers & influencers
3/ With the cancellation of numerous IRL confs and meetups, the #bitcoin gaming community transitioned to online demos and tournaments.
@MintGox, a next gen esports tournament powered by Bitcoin, was born to showcase companies building games on LN.
4/ Over the past 9 mo, @MintGox featured FPS, fighting, racing, battle royale, mobile games, & more.
The streaming dashboard intro'd a novel way to break the fourth wall, letting viewers interact directly with the gameplay, using sats to drop powerups, inc. bounty, & send tips.
5/ Since inception, @MintGox witnessed incredible growth (over 20% MOM inc. engagement) reaching global audiences and building a dedicated community. 🌏
The most recent MintGox event saw over 5,200 viewers, 10,000+ LN txs, and over 10 million sats (0.1 $BTC) in prizes.
@Scaramucci 's SkyBridge Capital released their investment thesis for their new Bitcoin Fund LP. They go a step further than other investors in why they are actively choosing bitcoin over gold
A thread 👇
2/ SkyBridge Capital’s main fund, with $9.3B AUM, had invested ~$182M in BTC. In Dec., they announced they were raising a new, separate Bitcoin only fund and already transferring ~$25M of BTC into it
3/ Today they opened to accredited investors w/ min invstmnt of at $50K. This Bitcoin LP won’t trade BUT you only pay 0.75% annual fee and no premium, the portfolio is priced by Bloomberg’s fixed rate (XBT). In contrast, GBTC trades OTC, a 2% yr fee, and a premium to BTC’s price
4/ Their website is a vast library of info. Not just their Offering Memo, pres. & investment thesis. It also includes:
- FAQ videos (Michael Saylor features and Scaramucci has cited him as a major influence)
- Readings on Bitcoin (@real_vijay The Bullish Case for Bitcoin)
5/ Towards the bottom of the page, they also take a dig at GBTC’s premium and offer to walk through a “GBTC swap” to their fund. They understand the hurdles that many traditional investors face in investing into BTC and lean into it
From there it’s easy to layout how Ethereum is the foundation for a variety of digital institutions (protocols) built upon the same principles of decentralization as Bitcoin.
With “Bitcoin : Digital Gold :: Ethereum : Digital Economy” as the framing its then much easier to describe what a bet on ETH is.
I first explain DeFi (the new Wall Street), NFTs, Web3, and all the other mind blowing projects built on Ethereum...
...then illuminate how ETH is at the center of all it.
If BTC is like gold - an asset that people store value in but don’t use as money.
Then ETH is like money - the most liquid asset in Ethereum’s on-chain economy that is demanded for a wide range of economic uses.
If I get pressed on the semantics of “money” I explain how ETH is used as a medium of exchange, store of value, and unit of account...
...but also eventually as the ultimate source of security for the Ethereum blockchain, stretching the idea of what money is.
A lot these ideas are what we attempted to express and put numbers behind in our latest ETH 2.0
(Video version @ https://t.co/VIHEoHLYpN)
A thread. 👇
2/22 Despite last night's major Bitcoin correction, it still sits at $33k, well above the last bull run's all time high. With XRP currently at $0.28, it may seem rather ridiculous to think XRP will ever become #1.
3/22 However, it's important to compare Bitcoin and XRP not in terms of price, but market cap. That's because there are 100 billion XRP (and will never be more) and 19 million circulating Bitcoin (21 million max). So comparing the price of individual tokens doesn't work.
4/22 XRP's market cap is $12.6 billion. Bitcoin's is $623 (roughly 50x more, 55x if you factor in the 2 million Bitcoin not yet mined). That's a huge lead, but not as big as the 119,000x lead if you compare token price!
5/22 Bitcoin's primary advantage is its early adoption. It caught on earlier and became the front runner of crypto. Don't underestimate the power of being first. It gives a massive advantage. But it doesn't GUARANTEE being the winner long-term.
[2/13] Initial setup (simplified): on L1 we have SyntheticBridgeToOptimism from Synthetic and OVM_L1CrossDomainManager from Optimism contracts. On L2 we have SynthetixBridgeToBase and OVM_L2_CrossDomainManager contracts.
[3/13] Additionally we have Sequencer (L2 mining node) that verifies all L2 transactions and submits them in batches to L1 for future reference and Relayer that is responsible for relaying messages from L2 —> L1
[4/13] Step 1 - Alice wants to deposit $SNX to L2. To do that she calls initiateDeposit() method on the L1 SyntheticBridgeToOptimism which takes her $SNX, puts it in the escrow and calls OVM_L1CrossDomainManager sendMessage() method.
[5/13] The CrossDomainManager puts this request to CanonicalTransactionChain (this is an “official” and “unmutable” list of all L2 transactions on L1). As a consequence the Sequencer (L2 mining node) will need to execute this transaction on L2.
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Over and over again, judges have gone out of their way to listen to the evidence and dismantle it, enjoy the carnage!
Bowyer v. Ducey (Sidney Powell's case in Arizona)
"Plaintiffs have not moved the
needle for their fraud theory from conceivable to plausible"
This is a great opinion to start with. The Judge completely dismantles the nonsense brought before her.
King vs. Whitmer (Michigan, Sidney Powell case)
"Nothing but speculation and conjecture"
This is a good one to show people who think affidavits are good evidence. Notice how the affidavits don't actually say they saw fraud happen in Detroit.
Trump v. Benson (Michigan)
"hearsay within hearsay"
Another good one to show people who think affidavits are absolute proof.
Stoddard v. City Election Commission (Michigan)
these have been sold as a way to stop infection as though this were science.
this was never true and that fact was known and knowable.
above is the plot of social restriction and NPI vs total death per million. there is 0 R2. this means that the variables play no role in explaining one another.
we can see this same relationship between NPI and all cause deaths.
this is devastating to the case for NPI.
clearly, correlation is not proof of causality, but a total lack of correlation IS proof that there was no material causality.
barring massive and implausible coincidence, it's essentially impossible to cause something and not correlate to it, especially 51 times.
this would seem to pose some very serious questions for those claiming that lockdowns work, those basing policy upon them, and those claiming this is the side of science.
there is no science here nor any data. this is the febrile imaginings of discredited modelers.
this has been clear and obvious from all over the world since the beginning and had been proven so clearly by may that it's hard to imagine anyone who is actually conversant with the data still believing in these responses.
everyone got the same R
this methodology is a little complex, so let me explain what i did.— el gato malo (@boriquagato) May 30, 2020
a few EU countries provide real day of death data. this lets us plot meaningful curves to show rate of disease change.
what struck me is how similar all the curves were.
everyone got the same shape. pic.twitter.com/bN0hILzoSl
Write a tweet, tell your friends, and move on.
Once you own it, you fix it.
99% of people on Twitter/social media/internet won't do this.
Being radically transparent and honest is a competitive (and life) advantage.
From @RayDalio's Principles:
My new product has 14 users and <$400 monthly revenue. I've spent the last 4 months on it.
I'm going through a lot of pain to validate and grow it.
But if anyone asks me how it's going I will tell them exactly that.
If I asked them, I would hope they would give me the raw truth as well. Truth builds trust.
I think that goes for your internet audience as well. Authenticity is attractive.
I see this with @starter_story all the time - people don't want to share their revenue yet because they don't have any, or it's not high enough (not all cases but often).
I wish I could tell them that getting the cat out of the bag would actually fix the problem itself!!
Simple and effective way 2 make Money
Idea 1:- Use pivot level like 14800 in case of nifty and sell 14800straddle monthly expiry (365+335) exit if nifty closes on daily basis below S1 or above R1
After closing below S1 if it closes above S1 next day or any day enter the same position again vice versa for R1
Idea2:- Use R1 and S1 corresponding strikes multiple
Incase of R1 15337 take 15300ce
N in case of S1 14221 use 14200pe
Sell both and hold till expiry or exit if nifty closes below S1 or above R1 around closing
If the same bounces above S1 and falls below R1 re-enfer same strikes
Use same criteria for nifty, usdinr and banknifty
(This is must)Use this margin rule for 1lot banknifty pair keep 4Lax margin
For nifty one lot keep 3Lax
For usdinr 100lots keep 4Lax
I bet you if you do this on consistent basis your ROI will be more than 70% on yearly basis.
Couldn't explain easier than this
Criticisms are most welcomed.
THE WINNERS OF THE 24 HOUR STARTUP CHALLENGE
Remember, this money is just fun. If you launched a product (or even attempted a launch) - you did something worth MUCH more than $1,000.
The winners 👇
Lattes For Change - Skip a latte and save a life.
@frantzfries built a platform where you can see how skipping your morning latte could do for the world.
A great product for a great cause.
Congrats Chris on winning $250!
Instaland - Create amazing landing pages for your followers.
A team project! @bpmct and @BaileyPumfleet built a tool for social media influencers to create simple "swipe up" landing pages for followers.
Really impressive for 24 hours. Congrats!
SayHenlo - Chat without distractions
Built by @DaltonEdwards, it's a platform for combatting conversation overload. This product was also coded exclusively from an iPad 😲
Dalton is a beast. I'm so excited he placed in the top 10.
CoderStory - Learn to code from developers across the globe!
Built by @jesswallaceuk, the project is focused on highlighting the experience of developers and people learning to code.
I wish this existed when I learned to code! Congrats on $250!!