Someone tosses a coin ten times; it comes up heads every time. What's the probability it comes up heads on the next toss? (Pretty darn high—part of @nntaleb's work is unprogramming you from your high-school rules of thumb.) Now consider the (related) Gambler's fallacy...
Very interesting thread. For more general cases (\U0001f447) I proposed skin in the game as \u201cwhat makes imitation work\u201d but didn\u2019t consider professional scammers incl. casinos— Luca Dellanna (@DellAnnaLuca) January 18, 2021
Both scammers and casinos artificially inflate the crowd to provide an illusion of \u201cI can\u2019t be the only idiot.\u201d https://t.co/cMUrQpxc15
More from Simon DeDeo
One thing that’s always struck me is how *late* probability theory came in intellectual history. We had integral calculus before we had probability. And probability is insanely simple, mathematically!
I’m tempted to say that probability theory is not, in fact, Lindy. Frequentist probability is (for all the usual reasons) best understood as a heuristic. Bayesian interpretations, by contrast, take the remarkable step of tying it to mental states.
You have to work very hard to convince yourself that beliefs really are “degrees of belief in sets of events” (or whatever). It’s not natural—and I won’t rehearse the whole story about rational choice and decision theory...
So with those critiques in the back of my mind, when I read David Wallace’s decision-theoretic account of the Born Rule I was rather primed to say, hey, so what? Meaning...
It was pretty simple to do—Apple Time Machine backups let me do it with one click.
That first tweet captures, in two pictures, how badly Apple has “lost the plot” (to quote @wylieprof). On the right is the Apple MagSafe adapter, from 2013. On the left, what I had “upgraded” to.
Thanks, Apple! I really was nostalgic for worrying about yanking my computer off the table.
Oh and I really appreciated not knowing if my computer was charging. What was great was the little whoop sound you used, so that the speaker before me could be informed I was charging my laptop.
As a dean of a major academic institution, I could not have said this. But I will now. Requiring such statements in applications for appointments and promotions is an affront to academic freedom, and diminishes the true value of diversity, equity of inclusion by trivializing it. https://t.co/NfcI5VLODi— Jeffrey Flier (@jflier) November 10, 2018
We know that elite institutions like the one Flier was in (partial) charge of rely on irrelevant status markers like private school education, whiteness, legacy, and ability to charm an old white guy at an interview.
Harvard's discriminatory policies are becoming increasingly well known, across the political spectrum (see, e.g., the recent lawsuit on discrimination against East Asian applications.)
It's refreshing to hear a senior administrator admits to personally opposing policies that attempt to remedy these basic flaws. These are flaws that harm his institution's ability to do cutting-edge research and to serve the public.
Harvard is being eclipsed by institutions that have different ideas about how to run a 21st Century institution. Stanford, for one; the UC system; the "public Ivys".
Imagine for a moment the most obscurantist, jargon-filled, po-mo article the politically correct academy might produce. Pure SJW nonsense. Got it? Chances are you're imagining something like the infamous "Feminist Glaciology" article from a few years back.https://t.co/NRaWNREBvR pic.twitter.com/qtSFBYY80S— Jeffrey Sachs (@JeffreyASachs) October 13, 2018
The article is, at heart, deeply weird, even essentialist. Here, for example, is the claim that proposing climate engineering is a "man" thing. Also a "man" thing: attempting to get distance from a topic, approaching it in a disinterested fashion.
Also a "man" thing—physical courage. (I guess, not quite: physical courage "co-constitutes" masculinist glaciology along with nationalism and colonialism.)
There's criticism of a New York Times article that talks about glaciology adventures, which makes a similar point.
At the heart of this chunk is the claim that glaciology excludes women because of a narrative of scientific objectivity and physical adventure. This is a strong claim! It's not enough to say, hey, sure, sounds good. Is it true?
This is the first deletion, back in 2014. A bit hard to read between the lines, but the basic story that an admin had Stickland's page "speedy deleted"—i.e., deleted without debate. The method was something called Copyright Jujitsu.
In particular, the admin had the page deleted not because of notability, but because it included a photograph of Strickland that had ambiguous copyright status. This is a method that people developed to get rid of content they didn't want, but also didn't want to debate.
"Copyright Jujitsu" because it is usually used against spam from companies; a PR officer uploads promotional material to Wikipedia. Instead of debating whether it's neutral, the admin can say "we'd love to have it, but the material appears to violate your company's copyright".
Usually the PR office and the IP office are separate in a company, and the idea of releasing promotional material under public domain is such a legal nightmare that the PR person goes away.
More from Crypto
The NFT token you bought either points to a URL on the internet, or an IPFS hash. In most circumstances it references an IPFS gateway on the internet run by the startup you bought the NFT from.
Oh, and that URL is not the media. That URL is a JSON metadata file
Here's an example. This artwork is by Beeple and sold via Nifty:
The NFT token is for this JSON file hosted directly on Nifty's servers:
THAT file refers to the actual media you just "bought". Which in this case is hosted via a @cloudinary CDN, served by Nifty's servers again.
So if Nifty goes bust, your token is now worthless. It refers to nothing. This can't be changed.
"But you said some use IPFS!"
Let's look at the $65m Beeple, sold by Christies. Fancy.
That NFT token refers directly to an IPFS hash (https://t.co/QUdtdgtssH). We can take that IPFS hash and fetch the JSON metadata using a public gateway:
(warning 100's of hrs of content)
2. @CalBlockchain 's Spring 2021 fundamentals course: slides and
3. @tferriss @naval and @NickSzabo4 's podcast about crypto and
4. Similar one to previous but @tferriss, @naval and @VitalikButerin 's podcast on scaling, ETH, NFTs and
5. @a16z Crypto startup
The vast majority of its success was fueled by #DeFi.
Here's what happened in 5 Tweets 🔽
1) Governance Tokens 🪙
Projects gave complete ownership of billion dollar protocols to their users, often using retroactive airdrops.
Early adopters earned tokens for past usage, and token-based voting now dictates all technical
It pays to be a web3 power user.— Coopahtroopa \U0001f525_\U0001f525 (@Cooopahtroopa) December 9, 2020
Five networks that issued retroactive airdrops to value added actors \U0001f4dd
2) Liquidity Mining ⛏️
Power users were the first to earn on-going distribution by providing liquidity.
$COMP sparked the wave, with $BAL coining the term a few weeks
3) Yield Faming 🌾
Projects coupled liquidity mining and governance tokens to boost 'yields' by combining lending rates with an incentive layer.
APYs peaked as high as 1M% during 'DeFi summer', leading to a 'food coin' craze like $YAM and
Check out @Cooopahtroopa's latest post for all the #DeFi farmers out there \U0001f468\u200d\U0001f33e— Zerion \U0001f3e6 (@zerion_io) June 26, 2020
Turns out @synthetix_io & @CurveFinance were ploughing the fields long before $COMP & $BAL came along.
Learn how to put your #crypto to work with this #yieldfarming 101 \U0001f4b8
4) Fair Launches ✅
Who needs investment when you can launch using yield farming?
@iearnfinance debuted $YFI with no formal funding, seeding a community treasury for self-sustainability.
The notion of a core team and community became one and the
2/ What is a Fair Launch?— fair launch capital (@fairlaunchcap) August 26, 2020
A FL enables founders to bootstrap new crypto networks that are earned, owned, and governed by their community from the outset.
In this dynamic, everyone participates on equal footing\u2014there is no early access, pre-mine, or allocation of tokens.
Let's make it easier.
Here's Crypto Terminology 101: 🧵
Any coin that's not #Bitcoin
Ether (#ETH) is the second most popular coin overall and the most well-known Altcoin.
Ether is the native cryptocurrency on the Ethereum blockchain.
There are thousands of other altcoins, but for now, this is the one to know.
The first decentralized digital currency.
Launched in 2009 by an unknown person or organization known only as "Satoshi Nakamoto."
It is the most famous, and most valuable cryptocurrency.
The core tech behind Bitcoin and most other cryptocurrencies.
An open, distributed, general ledger where transactions are organized into blocks which are then connected using cryptography.
A store of digital value that lives on a blockchain.
Some blockchains, such as Bitcoin, use the same name for both the network and the coin.
Stable coins are another type of cryptocurrency which are backed by fiat currency (e.g the US dollar) or commodities such as Gold.
Let's talk about how interest-bearing cash on a blockchain is going to revolutionise boring corporate treasury management that concerns every company is is a larger business than all crypto trading in the world.
Enter the thread
2/ Blockchain community is often seen as toxic maxis and redditors who shill other their weekly favourite shitcoin in the hope of getting Lambo.
Sometimes we also do things that progress humanity towards the better future and interest-bearing cash is one of those things.
3/ Less chad and more things that actually matter:
My incomplete theory of interest-bearing cash is also available also as a blog post:
It is 15 pages. Pick your slow poison or die fast by continue reading here.
4/ First time in the history we have an ability to create interest-bearing cash-like instruments.
Interest-bearing cash ticks up dollar (euro) balance real-time in your wallet.
Here is a demonstration using @aaveaave aDAI, based on @makerdao DAI, and @TrustWalletApp
5/ Interest-bearing cash is not like your bank's saving account. Your money in a bank is not yours, but bank's. There are some flaws in the current banking system causing a headache for Chief Financial Officers (CFOs)
You May Also Like
He has been wrong (or lying) so often that it will be nearly impossible for me to track every grift, lie, deceit, manipulation he has pulled. I will use...
... other sources who have been trying to shine on light on this grifter (as I have tried to do, time and again:
Example #1: "Still not seeing Sweden signal versus Denmark really"... There it was (Images attached).
19 to 80 is an over 300% difference.
Example #2 - "Yes, I'm comparing the Noridcs / No, you cannot compare the Nordics."
I wonder why...
Tweets: https://t.co/XLfoX4rpck / https://t.co/vjE1ctLU5x
Example #3 - "I'm only looking at what makes the data fit in my favour" a.k.a moving the goalposts.
Tweets: https://t.co/vcDpTu3qyj / https://t.co/CA3N6hC2Lq
1. People's Justice Courts to be set up worldwide
2. Citizens' arrests of all Identified Suspects
3. Lab Inspections
3. Harsh interrogation using MKULTRA
4. Public Show Trials video streamed live
5. Cross Questioning of suspects via Twitter & Zoom
A growing list of suspects to be interrogated
Foul Traitors, Charlatans, Frauds, Bat Molesters! Frankensteins, Well Poisoners, Plotters, Deceivers!
Dr. Shipmans, Saboteurs, Devils in White Coats!
Organisations to be Investigated
Wuhan University IMA
Nanjing Military Lab
LAURIMA GOV SERVICES
Major General Chen Wei
Bannari Amman Kshetram is dedicated to Mariamman, known as the goddess of Rain. This divine place is located at the foothill of Thimbam.
Bannari Amman is a form of Shakti. The murti is swayambhu (self-manifested).
Some 300 years ago, cowherds used to leave cattle here for grazing. One day, a cow was seen shedding her milk under a Vengai tree. Next day also, the cow did the same thing. Villagers removed the thickly grown grass and found a sand-hill and Swayambu Linga near it.
It is believed that a deity protected traders from Kerala who travelled through this place to Mysore. Fascinated by the beautiful surroundings, she decided to stay here to protect devotees. A shrine was built and Bannari Mariamman is worshipped here since then.
Bannari Amman is the only shrine that faces the south direction. Instead of Vibhuti and Kumkuma, Bannari soil is given to the devotees. The Kundam festival (fire walk on heated charcoal) is most famous here.
The environment that Ousmane Dembélé grew up in and the environment that FC Barcelona seeks to engulf its youngsters with could not be more different.
The Great Gatsby starts with a life lesson.
"Whenever you feel like criticizing any one, just remember that all the people in this world haven't had the advantages that you've had."
Ousmane hasn’t had the advantages that La Masia youngsters have had. That’s why he’s Ousmane.
Like every La Masia youngster, Ousmane grew up with a dream: playing for Barça.
Like every youngster, he fought to stand out amid a talented group of players, the majority of which would fail to go pro.
However, his football education was the polar opposite to that of La Masia.
Ousmane did not reside in one of the most expensive academies in Europe: he lived in a low-cost public housing unit in Normandy. He did not play in the well-trimmed pitches of La Masia, he played in the concrete jungles of Évreux. These disadvantages made him the man he is today.
While street soccer encourages individuality & creative freedom, academy-based training like La Masia encourages unselfishness & teamwork.
That’s why Barça produce certain types of 20-year-olds like a factory line. It’s also why Barça spent €145m on a 20-year-old Ousmane.
Rishi Bhringi was a devoted bhakt of Mahadev. However, in his devotion to Shiva, he ignored Mata Parvati.
Once, he visited Kailasha along with other Rishis. All the Rishis did parikrama of Shiva and Parvati both except Rishi Bhringi.
The same situation continued whenever Rishi Bhringi visited Kailasha. Mata Parvati decided to teach him that Shiva and Parvati are one and inseparable.
So on one such visit, Mata Parvati sat on the left lap of Mahadev when Rishi Bhringi came.
Seeing this, Rishi Bhringi took the form of a bee(some say bird) and did pradakshina/ parikrama only around Shiva’s head and ignored Ma Parvati.
Angered Mata took away the Shakti from his body. Rishi lost his blood and flesh and was left with a bare skeletal form.
Seeing him in such a situation where he was unable to support himself, Shiva granted a third leg to him.
Shiva then fused one half of his body with that of Ma Parvati and appeared as Ardha Nareeshwar.
Rishi Bhringi finally realised that Shiv and Shakti are one and the same.