BC CATEGORY C19
Saved by @vliscony

1/: Scientific integrity is a valuable commodity. What happens when external funders take influence on both scientific™ findings and media coverage can be seen in the current global crisis. It is time to return to the fundamental principles of science: ⬇️A thread⬇️

 2/: In this thread, I will roughly explain why #empiricism and #repeatability are important factors for science and why model approaches should be interpreted with caution (and that is what I am saying as a modeller).
3/: I am aware that the principle of science is far more profound than explained in this thread, but this thread is written for laymen on @twitter and not for the lecture room. Also, within the scientific community, there is no clear consensus about this topic either.
4/: In recent years, I have been working on complex food production systems that increase food production and show high nutrient and water use efficiencies. I have thus been involved in plant growth experiments and holistic system modelling activities (@MATLAB, @AnyLogicCo).
5/: The plant growth experiments included environmental factors, #metagenomics (i.e. microbial genome sequencing), flow regulations etc. and the modelling covered the prediction on non-existing systems based on experimental and literature data.
6/: The IMHO most important principle of science is #empiricism. Empirical evidence is information that verifies the truth (which accurately corresponds to reality) or falsity (inaccuracy) of a claim. However, experiments and observations usually do not represent the "truth".
7/: There can be many intervening factors that have an impact on the observations. The less the conditions are controlled, the higher the deviations. So in order to “find the truth”, one wants to conduct an experiment in an environment with as few as possible inference factors.
8/: I will explain this through the example of my plant growth experiments. One can conduct the experiment in a greenhouse; solar radiation, humidity, temperature etc., are no stable factors. However, in a “climate chamber”, all of these factors can be standardized.
9/: This allows us to compare experiments with one another much easier. But there are also other factors that are not easy to control. These are (often) the genetic diversity of plant species, microbiological characteristics of the process water etc.
10/: This brings us to the point to talk about #repeatability. First of all, it’s essential that an experiment should contain several replications (or, if not possible repetitions) and control groups to ensure a high statistical relevance with respect to the made observations.
11/: However, the results are fundamentally dependent on the many factors, which have a decisive influence on the experiment’s outcome. I will give you two examples to explain what I mean: (a) my experiences with plant growth experiments; (b) vitamin D #COVID trials.
12/: In one experiment, we observed that lettuce grew much faster (40%) when being grown in aquaculture-derived water that contained many bacteria (i.e. which was not sterile such as it is the case for hydroponics systems). https://t.co/WBMyfb5v8k
13/: I repeated this experiment in different locations repeatedly, and the results seem to differ (still, we always see a growth advantage). This has to do with environmental conditions, different microbial strains in the process water, different seed material/quality etc.
14/: So what’s the truth? I don’t know. Why don’t I know? Because it depends. What does it depend on? Well, many factors.

And plant growth experiment cannot be considered complex compared to the field of epidemiology or alike, where it’s even harder to control conditions.
15/: I was able to make similar observations regarding vitamin D studies. Many studies have been conducted in this field, and they are everything but uniform, also due to different hypotheses. An overview of conducted vitamin D studies can be found here: https://t.co/zhzTWwF9br
16/: In general, we can see that vitamin D has a high impact on the severity of the course of COVID, the death rate etc. And yet, meta-analyses generally compare apples and oranges (which is often unavoidable, so there is nobody to blame). https://t.co/YgJJNwMfzE
17/: The approach of every study differs in the following approaches: (1) amount IU of vitamin D administered; (2) time of administration; (3) physical characteristics of the patients; (4) selection of individuals; (5) dietary co-factors; etc. just to name some.
18/: There are, for example, studies out there that claim that vitamin D doesn't have an impact on COVID. Those studies, however, assume that a sufficient vitamin D blood serum level lays around 20 ng/mL, which is a completely faulty assumption. Still made it through peer review.
19/: Such drawn conclusions can cause confusions, and it’s the scientific community’s job to analyse, verify, and discuss findings. Such open discussions (which should include transparent peer-review processes) would help us to reduce biases. https://t.co/c1ONzsVMWC
20/: After having given you a brief insight into #empiricism and #repeatability, I want to talk about the field of modelling. During this 'pandemic', the outcome of models, again and again, justify political restrictions. But how does modelling work?
21/: The objective of a prediction model is to predict the future on the basis of available or predicted data. Often, complex situations have to be simplified for a model to work.
22/: In the last couple of months, we came across many modelled predictions: almost all of them were completely wrong (remark: don’t let physicists work in the field of epidemiology). Issues such as #seasonality have been purposely neglected, which is a methodological failure.
23/: Comparing the model prediction with the actual observations is called “model validation”. Every serious scientist should validate their models and publicly discuss why the model failed or was able to predict the future. This is somehow not the case anymore.
24/: It would be exciting to get to know why @ViolaPriesemann, @EricTopiol, @CorneliusRoemer, @neil_ferguson, or @VSPTUBerlin (who are traffic planners lol) do not validate their COVID-models but instead keep on publishing doomsday scenarios with their faulty work.
25/: It is also useful to illustrate complex relationships in so-called causal-loop diagrams prior to blindly modelling a situation. That is at least what I do (see graphic for Kombucha).
26/: A holistic causal loop diagram demonstrating the complexity of the pandemic environmental–health–socio–economic system can be found in this publication: https://t.co/CpCL4wMq2b. This could for example be a solid basis for a holistic model (consisting of several submodels).
27/: Every serious scientist should keep on questioning the “reality” and his/her own work. I can only recommend the mentioned “scientists” and many other modellers to read the following article. https://t.co/UBoPEliLiL
28/: I also have another shout-out to the media: why do you keep on giving scientists a platform that have been wrong several times.
29/: … are openly lying... https://t.co/nPKyuGTr63
30/: … committed scientific fraud… (hello @Eurosurveillanc & @StephenABustin)
https://t.co/1m7rpVqYFQ
31/: … let their bachelor students do the modelling job…
https://t.co/5hLDktlvf8
32/: … lack of a scientific degrees…
https://t.co/pMIGbbKrLU
33/: … make false statements… (plus get funded by #Soros, @wef and @WHO; i.e. conflict of interests)
https://t.co/nElSOLHMUd
34/: … defame genuine colleagues…
https://t.co/h78oX9Ah3a
35/: … have conflicts of interests… (best wishes to the @gatesfoundation). etc.
https://t.co/2AzbGs4KDT
36: Also, the #TeamScience that the media talks about is much bigger than assumed. Critical voices are disregarded or discredited. Instead, those who are in line with the agenda (no matter how unscientific their approach is) are presented as “THE SCIENCE™” we should listen to.
37/: Last but not least, John Ioannidis wrote one of the most important publications of the last decades about this topic: “Why Most Published Research Findings Are False”. Give it a go because he is part of the real #TeamScience. https://t.co/LeGCfIMHFf

More from Dr. Simon ツ

Dr. Simon \u30c4
Dr. Simon ツ
@goddeketal
Substantial analysis of @BenMarten regarding the mortality in Germany. Particularly noticeable is the "excess mortality" in December. Ben states that "lockdown deaths" could play an important role here. I would like to elaborate my thoughts on that. ⬇️Mini-Thread⬇️


Factor 1: Vitamin D deficiency.

Many people (especially elderly) have been locked in during the summer. Also the majority of holiday trips have been cancelled, leading to a lower 25(OH)D blood serum level as usual. The body can store vitamin D up to several months.


As vitamin D is a hormon that modulates the immune responses, we can assume that the lockdown measures had some adverse effect on our immune system. Especially elderly people in retirement homes must have been severely affected.

Factor 2: Loneliness

"Loneliness, it seems, can lead to long-term "fight-or-flight" stress signaling, which negatively affects immune system functioning. Simply put, people who feel lonely have less immunity and more inflammation than people who

Factor 3: Hyper Hygiene

Constant disinfections and high hygienic standards weaken the immune system. It gets literally "out of
WORLD
Dr. Simon \u30c4
Dr. Simon ツ
@goddeketal
1/ Happy to announce that we have submitted our #paper ‘Bayes Lines Tool (BLT) - A SQL-script for analyzing diagnostic test results with an application to SARS-CoV-2-testing’.

In this ⬇️thread⬇️, I will explain why our tool is that powerful for decision makers. #UnbiasedScience


2/ In the meantime, the submitted paper is available on the preprint platform @zenodo_org. Factual criticism is highly desired and encouraged. The publication itself presents a seminal Bayesian calculator, the Bayes Lines Tool (BLT). (Petje af, @waukema!)

3/ The Bayes Line Tool (available on https://t.co/jIomSIxOd9) is able to back-solve disease #prevalence, test #sensitivity, test #specificity, and therefore, true positive, false positive, true negative and false negative numbers from official governmental test outcome reports.

4/ This is done by creating confusion matrices with four variables. Namely: TP, FP, TN, FN. In order to calculate the matrices, we need prevalence, specificity, and sensitivity as well as the number of people that got tested (within a given period) and the number of positives.


5/ The number of positives and the number of tests are given by the government. Prevalence, specificity, and sensitivity are unknown. So we assume any combination of them ranging from 0-99%. These three combinations can amount up to #millions of #combinations.
TECH
Advertisement
Dr. Simon \u30c4
Dr. Simon ツ
@goddeketal
1/ One year of destroyed economies, social isolation & deep social splits calls for an anniversary ⬇️thread ⬇️ to celebrate the RT-qPCR manuscript by Christian Drosten (@c_drosten) & Victor Corman (@vmcorman), submitted on 21st Jan 2020 to @Eurosurveillanc. #UnbiasedScience


2/ Before this very publication, virologists were neither treated like superstars, nor were they considered icons or half-gods. In 2009, Drosten almost succeeded in installing the false premise virology could supersede holistic medical sciences as discussed in this thread.

3/ Drosten is a virologist. He neither has any background in epidemiology, nor has he ever worked in the civil service. He also doesn’t have a background in public health. Yet he and his colleagues affect our daily lives to the level of whom to meet up or how to flush the toilet.


4/ Before January 2020, Drosten and Corman were common virologists at Charité Berlin, whenever they were not involved in economic implications (https://t.co/UTDwG8U7Du). Other than that, they looked at coronaviruses in dromedary calves in the Middle East or Africa. 😍 #cute


5/ Finally in Jan 2020, the published paper laid the theoretical grounds for the current pandemic, the RT-qPCR mass testing-religion, for which he was awarded his second German Federal Cross of Merit (he received the first one in 2005 for developing the SARS-CoV PCR test).
SOCIETY
Dr. Simon \u30c4
Dr. Simon ツ
@goddeketal
1/: The Nuremberg Code is a set of research ethics principles for human experimentation created as a result of the Nuremberg trials at the end of the Second World War. In light of the current events, they are more actual than ever before. ⬇️an important thread⬇️


2/: These so-called ‘Doctors’ Trial’ focused on physicians who conducted #inhumane and #unethical human experiments in German concentration camps, in addition to those who were involved in over 3,500,000 sterilizations of German citizens. (the picture shows doctors/criminals)


3/: Ten points of the code were given in the section of the verdict entitled "Permissible Medical Experiments". They can be found in detail on the following website:

4/: Point #1 means that the person involved should have legal capacity to give consent; should be so situated as to be able to exercise free power of choice, without the intervention of any element of force, fraud, or deceit.


5/: Using an insufficiently-tested vaccine on humans is unethical. However, as long as people voluntarily consent to receive the vaccine, being informed about all risks, everything is OK. Doing this with force, however, is against the Nuremberg Code.
CATEGORY C19
Dr. Simon \u30c4
Dr. Simon ツ
@goddeketal
1/: The inventor of the corona PCR-Test @c_drosten is one of the #protagonists of the current crisis. He is known for involving himself in contradictions. In 2014, he gave a legendary #interview to @wiwo (https://t.co/jzTRh5Suhc) that I will address in this ⬇️short thread⬇️.


2/: The interview is significant because @c_drosten made totally sane statements back then that follow the principle of common sense. Considering his involvement in the "genesis of the current pandemic", his assertions appear in an entirely different


3/: In 2014, for instance, washing the hands was sufficient against being infected by coronaviruses. Several years he demands measures that destroy national economies and social life worldwide.


4/: Young @c_drosten also severely criticized the fact that Saudi Arabia used the PCR method to detect potential infections. From his point of view, that specific method could lead to many irrelevant cases. Nowadays, his view shifted his opinion towards 'collective punishment'.


5/: Whereas he demands "testing, testing, testing" nowadays and spreads panic and fear via (social) media, he heavily condemned that behaviour of Saudi media in 2014. On top of that, he expressed his concern that medial panic could increase the number of lab tests significantly.
CATEGORY C19

More from Category c19

Dr. Simon \u30c4
Dr. Simon ツ
@goddeketal
1/: The Nuremberg Code is a set of research ethics principles for human experimentation created as a result of the Nuremberg trials at the end of the Second World War. In light of the current events, they are more actual than ever before. ⬇️an important thread⬇️


2/: These so-called ‘Doctors’ Trial’ focused on physicians who conducted #inhumane and #unethical human experiments in German concentration camps, in addition to those who were involved in over 3,500,000 sterilizations of German citizens. (the picture shows doctors/criminals)


3/: Ten points of the code were given in the section of the verdict entitled "Permissible Medical Experiments". They can be found in detail on the following website:

4/: Point #1 means that the person involved should have legal capacity to give consent; should be so situated as to be able to exercise free power of choice, without the intervention of any element of force, fraud, or deceit.


5/: Using an insufficiently-tested vaccine on humans is unethical. However, as long as people voluntarily consent to receive the vaccine, being informed about all risks, everything is OK. Doing this with force, however, is against the Nuremberg Code.
CATEGORY C19
Bobby Rajesh Malhotra \u30c4
Bobby Rajesh Malhotra ...
@Bobby_Network
@welt published an article today on the “panic paper”-scandal in Germany.

Title is "Maximum collaboration”, showing @BMI_Bund / Horst Seehofer had a secret paper drafted in the 1st COVID-19 wave that dramatically depicted the threat.

A scandal of gigantic proportions. Thread⬇️


2/: @welt released 2 versions: long version as print, short-edit, online.

This thread focuses on the long version. It's of crucial importance-people around the globe understand this earthshaking scandal. Share.

English: https://t.co/qAbU6D8c0P

German: https://t.co/W2i1FtVrCg


3/: Mid-March 2020: Federal Minister of the Interior-Horst Seehofer (@BMI_Bund, @cducsubt) was on the edge: Christian Drosten (@c_drosten) & Lothar Wieler (@RKI) urgently warned: Germany was threatened w/ dramatic consequences if the country returned to everyday life too quickly.


4/: Horst Seehofer sent his Secretary of State Markus Kerber into the lane. The plan was to bring together leading scientists: they should produce a paper that would then serve as legitimation for further tough political measures, beyond Easter - now known as the “panic paper”.


5/: Markus Kerber launched a corresponding call to researchers via e-mail, 4 days later, the request was fulfilled: A classified paper, which presented the danger posed by the virus as dramatically as possible, and which quickly spread through the media.
CATEGORY C19
Advertisement
Dr. Simon \u30c4
Dr. Simon ツ
@goddeketal
1/: Avicenna was a Persian scientist, who lived 1000 years ago. He put two lambs in separate cages, which had the same health conditions. But only one lamb could see a wolf that was put in a third cage. The observations were astounding. (h/t @farmer_student) ⬇️a thread⬇️


2/: Both lambs were provided with the same feed. Also, the weight was exactly the same when the experiment started. Several months later, the lamb with sight on the wolf became cranky, restless, weak, and showed a significant weight loss and signs of poor development.

3/: The lamb that was under chronic stress as it was placed in a situation of constant apparent danger died eventually. 🐑🪦 In fact, the wolf did not pose a danger at all, but this was beyond the lamb's perception.

4/: This experiment showed that increased levels of the stress hormone cortisol have a bad impact on the metabolism of mammals. And 1000 years after this experiment, we are facing a similar situation again but with the difference that we are aware of the impact of stress.

5/: Currently, we are overwhelmed with medial and governmental propaganda with respect to a common cold virus (that might hypothetically be more lethal though) that doesn't do harm to the majority of the people. Extreme global measures are taken.
CATEGORY C19
Robin Monotti FRSA MA BSc
Robin Monotti FRSA MA ...
@robinmonotti
BAYES' THEOREM: The basic reason we get so many false positives to COVID19. The disease is so rare that the number of false positives greatly outnumbers the people who truly have the disease: THE MATHS:
https://t.co/oLHyxYJW9H


"Suppose that you are worried that you might have a rare disease. You decide to get tested, and suppose that the testing methods for this disease are correct 99 percent of the time"

"Suppose this disease is actually quite rare, occurring randomly in the general population in only one of every 10,000 people. If your test results come back POSITIVE, what are your chances that you actually have the disease? LESS THAN 1% chance that you have the disease!"


"The basic reason we get such a surprising result is because the disease is so rare that the number of false positives greatly outnumbers the people who truly have the disease"


Say mass testing of the contagious virus was done to 1 million people. In that million, 100 will really have the disease, 99 will be correctly diagnosed as having it. 999,900 of the million will not have the disease, but of those about 9,999 will be false positives! #BayesTheorem
CATEGORY C19
Robin Monotti FRSA \u2b50
Robin Monotti FRSA ⭐...
@robinmonotti
Italian researchers: vaccines will not work against SARSCoV2 because this virus does not only replicate in human cells like other viruses, this one replicates through bacteria too. This is the fundamental reason why antibiotics work & vaccines will not:

Here is the Italian-EU scientific study indicating SARSCoV2 replicates in bacteria, not only human cells, and that is why antibiotics work and these vaccines will not:

"The preliminary results suggest that SARS-CoV-2 replicates in bacterial

2 of the 4 authors of the study work at the European Commission. Another works at an Italian medical research facility called Craniomed: https://t.co/EETSM3nb3T


You can find all of CRANIOMED's Carlo Brogna's published scientific research articles here, take a look:
CATEGORY C19

You May Also Like

Vibhu Vashisth
Vibhu Vashisth
@VIBHU_Tweet
राम-रावण युद्ध समाप्त हो चुका था। जगत को त्रास देने वाला रावण अपने कुटुम्ब सहित नष्ट हो चुका था।श्रीराम का राज्याभिषेक हुआ और अयोध्या नरेश श्री राम के नेतृत्व में चारों दिशाओं में शन्ति थी।
अंगद को विदा करते समय राम रो पड़े थे ।हनुमान को विदा करने की शक्ति तो राम में थी ही नहीं ।


माता सीता भी हनुमान को पुत्रवत मानती थी। अत: हनुमान अयोध्या में ही रह गए ।राम दिनभर दरबार में, शासन व्यवस्था में व्यस्त रहते थे। संध्या को जब शासकीय कार्यों में छूट मिलती तो गुरु और माताओं का कुशल-मंगल पूछ अपने कक्ष में जाते थे। परंतु हनुमान जी हमेशा उनके पीछे-पीछे ही रहते थे ।


उनकी उपस्थिति में ही सारा परिवार बहुत देर तक जी भर बातें करता ।फिर भरत को ध्यान आया कि भैया-भाभी को भी एकांत मिलना चाहिए ।उर्मिला को देख भी उनके मन में हूक उठती थी कि इस पतिव्रता को भी अपने पति का सानिध्य चाहिए ।

एक दिन भरत ने हनुमान जी से कहा,"हे पवनपुत्र! सीता भाभी को राम भैया के साथ एकांत में रहने का भी अधिकार प्राप्त है ।क्या आपको उनके माथे पर सिन्दूर नहीं दिखता?इसलिए संध्या पश्चात आप राम भैया को कृप्या अकेला छोड़ दिया करें "।
ये सुनकर हनुमान आश्चर्यचकित रह गए और सीता माता के पास गए ।


माता से हनुमान ने पूछा,"माता आप अपने माथे पर सिन्दूर क्यों लगाती हैं।" यह सुनकर सीता माता बोलीं,"स्त्री अपने माथे पर सिन्दूर लगाती है तो उसके पति की आयु में वृद्धि होती है और वह स्वस्थ रहते हैं "। फिर हनुमान जी प्रभु राम के पास गए ।
ALL
James Felton
James Felton
@JimMFelton
Butt plugs were originally sold as a miracle cure for headaches, acne, and insanity

Thread, article here and h/t: @qikipedia :
https://t.co/Ts84xnmWKJ


For a long time, medicine was pre-occupied with the question "can this be solved by putting something in the butt?"

Take, for example, tobacco smoke enemas, in which 18th Century physicians saw drowning victims and attempted to de-deadify them by blowing tobacco smoke up their rectums with a pipe.


Despite having no medical benefit whatsoever, the practice was popular, and enema kits lined the Thames like lifebelts, ready to be used as one final humiliation for somebody who was crap at swimming.

This practice ended sometime after 1800 when it became apparent that it didn't really work, given how the anus famously isn't really connected to the lungs, but doctors weren't quite finished with having a poke around in the old anus to see what happens just yet.
TECH
Advertisement
Priyanka (Astrology Guidance)
Priyanka (Astrology Gu...
@AstroAmigo
1

From today, we will memorize the names of 27 Nakshatras in Vedic Jyotish to never forget in life.

I will write 4 names. Repeat them in SAME sequence twice in morning, noon, evening. Each day, revise new names + recall all previously learnt names.

Pls RT if you are in.

2

Today's Nakshatras are:-

1. Ashwini - अश्विनी

2. Bharani - भरणी

3. Krittika - कृत्तिका

4. Rohini - रोहिणी

Ashwini - अश्विनी is the FIRST Nakshatra.

Repeat these names TWICE now, tomorrow morning, noon and evening. Like this tweet if you have revised 8 times as told.

3

Today's Nakshatras are:-

5. Mrigashira - मृगशिरा

6. Ardra - आर्द्रा

7. Punarvasu - पुनर्वसु

8. Pushya - पुष्य

First recall previously learnt Nakshatras twice. Then recite these TWICE now, tomorrow morning, noon & evening in SAME order. Like this tweet only after doing so.

4

Today's Nakshatras are:-

9. Ashlesha - अश्लेषा

10. Magha - मघा

11. Purvaphalguni - पूर्वाफाल्गुनी

12. Uttaraphalguni - उत्तराफाल्गुनी

Purva means that comes before (P se Purva, P se pehele), and Uttara comes later.

Read next tweet too.

5

Purva, Uttara prefixes come in other Nakshatras too. Purva= pehele wala. Remember.

First recall previously learnt 8 Nakshatras twice. Then recite those in Tweet #4 TWICE now, tomorrow morning, noon & evening in SAME order. Like this tweet if you have read Tweets #4 & 5, both.
VEDICNAKSHATRA
f1talks.pl
f1talks.pl
@f1talks
Oleg Karpov pisze, że gdyby Siergiej Sirotkin zdobył w pierwszej części sezonu więcej punktów od Strolla, to jego kontrakt z automatu zostałby przedłużony na kolejny sezon. Tak się nie stało i Williams ma możliwość szukania innych opcji i to właśnie robi. #F1pl

Czego w artykule brakuje, to informacji, że SMP prawdopodobnie przekazało Williamsowi część środków na sfinansowanie sezonu 2019. W przypadku zakończenia współpracy ekipa z Grove będzie musiała zwrócić te środki. #F1pl

To tłumaczy wysokie kwoty jakich Williams ma oczekiwać za fotel od nowego kierowcy. Jest pewnie próg opłacalności i dopóki nie zostanie osiągnięty, to zmiana z finansowego punktu widzenia nie będzie się zwyczajnie opłacała. #F1pl

Tyle można znaleźć w oświadczeniach prasowych... 😂😂😂
SPORT
Jim O'Shaughnessy
Jim O'Shaughnessy
@jposhaughnessy
I’m torn on how to approach the idea of luck. I’m the first to admit that I am one of the luckiest people on the planet. To be born into a prosperous American family in 1960 with smart parents is to start life on third base. The odds against my very existence are astronomical.


I’ve always felt that the luckiest people I know had a talent for recognizing circumstances, not of their own making, that were conducive to a favorable outcome and their ability to quickly take advantage of them.

In other words, dumb luck was just that, it required no awareness on the person’s part, whereas “smart” luck involved awareness followed by action before the circumstances changed.

So, was I “lucky” to be born when I was—nothing I had any control over—and that I came of age just as huge databases and computers were advancing to the point where I could use those tools to write “What Works on Wall Street?” Absolutely.

Was I lucky to start my stock market investments near the peak of interest rates which allowed me to spend the majority of my adult life in a falling rate environment? Yup.
ALL