BC BREXIT
Saved by @CodyyyGardner

It's OUT! The first #Brexit Briefing of 2021...which explores how unrealistic some industry expectations are about 'fixes' to the current deal, now the penny is dropping about what it means for supply chains and UK position vis-a-vis EU

 So take the example this week, where the @Foodanddrinkfed raised the issue that UK-hubs for food and drink were "unworkable" since goods that came in from the EU were attracting full tariffs when the were spun back into Ireland or other EU members /2

https://t.co/PY0ernQ73u
@Foodanddrinkfed They were backed by other EU associations - and both said they would lobby UK govt and @EU_Commission to 'fix' what they presumed was an "unintended consequence" of the deal....except that both EU officials and UK govt have basically shrugged. The deal is the deal. /3
@Foodanddrinkfed @EU_Commission This is in no way confined to food industry - clothes and retailers are also hard-hit.

But lots of industry has wrongly bet that 'common sense' and 'self interest' would prevail once the nasty negotiations phase was out the way...but that's not the signal being sent. /4
As one EU official puts it: “You can’t expect the UK to remain the food import hub for the EU. It’s not sustainable, and makes no sense in the mid-to-longer run." And that applies to financial services, clothing, retail goods....a bureaucratic curtain has descended. /4
So what does that mean?

Well on the 'micro' front it means that businesses will start to split their supply lines between the EU and the UK...shrinking their UK footprint as a result. Take @AstonChemicals which supplies chems to cosmetics industry.... /5
@AstonChemicals As @DanilLoughran tells me, they shipped their last UK-EU load on Dec 18....now all the EU product will go into Poland. As a result her UK warehousing staff headcount has shrunk by one third. /6
@AstonChemicals @DanilLoughran Why? Because importing all the chemicals into the UK for distribution to EU makes no sense - they need dual registration, risk tariffs because of rules of origin + all the border delays and paperwork. So she hubs from Poland. /7

https://t.co/KwtJIWTNoa
@AstonChemicals @DanilLoughran It's a similar issue for Premium Plus UK, but as a dental devices importer, their issue is medical services directive that means EU importers must be responsible for goods them import (a legacy of bursting breast implants)...but makes it non-viable to hub from UK too. /8
@AstonChemicals @DanilLoughran For others like @reneewatson77 of Curiosity Box science kits, it's more wait and see if it makes sense to pay for dual certification - EU 'CE' mark and the UK's UKCA mark - which will cost her £20,000 her small business doesn't have. /9
@AstonChemicals @DanilLoughran @reneewatson77 Others like Kiran Tawadey of @hampsteadtea will get through by shift processes - more warehousing in German, but that means bigger loads and £65k-£75k to her base costs. How long she keeps basing of out the UK she isn't sure /10

https://t.co/4DIjZB00bX
@AstonChemicals @DanilLoughran @reneewatson77 @hampsteadtea All this will make life very interesting (to put it mildly) for those at the sharp end like Paul Jackson's @ChilternDist which has invested £1m in recent years in temperature-controlled distribution...and now waits to see how the border shakes down in practice. /11
@AstonChemicals @DanilLoughran @reneewatson77 @hampsteadtea @ChilternDist Which is to say that #Brexit impact is not really about 'delays at the border'...it's the permanent, structural disadvantage of UK businesses vis-a-vis EU counterparts. i.e Those 'non-tariff barriers' that @BorisJohnson said did not exist (in a universe of alternative facts)/12
@AstonChemicals @DanilLoughran @reneewatson77 @hampsteadtea @ChilternDist @BorisJohnson And the idea that UK business can 'just do more exporting to the rest of the world' overlooks the basic fact that they could do that as an EU member - but didn't, for a variety of existing reason. viz someone else doing it cheaper usually. /13
@AstonChemicals @DanilLoughran @reneewatson77 @hampsteadtea @ChilternDist @BorisJohnson Brexiters love to defy economic gravity (particularly when it comes to services) but the economic reality is that competing with advanced economies on your door step is what keeps you productive - it provides economic muscle tone, because you have to compete /14
@AstonChemicals @DanilLoughran @reneewatson77 @hampsteadtea @ChilternDist @BorisJohnson As @JohnSpringford explains to me beautifully, it is about specialisation and exchange: “The UK provides advertising to big business in Germany and big business provides the UK with cars" and it that process that we’re weakening by #Brexit /15
@AstonChemicals @DanilLoughran @reneewatson77 @hampsteadtea @ChilternDist @BorisJohnson @JohnSpringford The net result is that UK workers shift into lower paid, less productive jobs over time and the UK will end up poorer relative to its EU peer-economies. That may even happen without anyone noticing - we don't live the counterfactual. /16
@AstonChemicals @DanilLoughran @reneewatson77 @hampsteadtea @ChilternDist @BorisJohnson @JohnSpringford It may even be that the politicians who rode to power on the back of a bus emblazoned with alternative facts will continue to prosper politically, but you can't escape that they have signed essentially a reverse-cooperation agreement with the EU. Truly unique thing to do. 17/ENDS

More from Peter Foster

Peter Foster
Peter Foster
@pmdfoster
It's OUT! My latest #Brexit Briefing for @FinancialTimes - examining @BorisJohnson
"buy now, pay later" Northern Ireland Protocol, why the EU-UK trust deficit is killing it, how that can be restored - because it needs to work. /1

@BorisJohnson The danger here is that lingering animus over the opportunistic nature Johnson's Faustian bargain - dividing his Kingdom in order to 'get #Brexit done' and win an 80-seat majority - is clouding judgement on both sides of the Channel /2

@BorisJohnson The facts of the Protocol are no less true for Johnson's constant denial of them - that there would be checks, that there really is a trade border that now prevents plants and pets from travelling freely from Bedford to Ballymena as M.Gove reminds us. But these are other facts/3

@BorisJohnson Firstly, NI remains part of UK, even if it is now has EU customs rules.

Secondly, NI remains politically divided and fragile; the Good Friday Agreement is a constant work in progress.

Thirdly, both the EU and the UK agreed to this unsatisfactory arrangement jointly. /4

@BorisJohnson Fourthly, therefore, they have a joint responsibility to make it work because

Fifthly - and most importantly — there is no alternative to it. /5
BREXIT
Peter Foster
Peter Foster
@pmdfoster
So. The hunt is on in Whitehall for #brexit dividends...to show some clear value in the freedoms given by Brexit.

As we report today one area being looked at is workers' rights...but it is politically difficult territory.

No cabinet decisions have been taken, but per sources, three potential areas been identified in Business Dept...

- the 48 Hour Week
- holiday pay/overtime calculations
- new EU rules on reporting hours worked...

All potentially possible post #brexit /2

The government says it has no intention of “lowering” workers’ rights....and notes that UK has actually gold-plated many EU regulations...BUT (think of government saying it won't "lower" animal welfare standards)...the devil will all be in the detail, if and when it comes /3

So the government likes to talk about ensuring workers’ rights are protected but ALSO making sure businesses has freedoms and flexibility to grow...so one man's reduction in rights is another freedom to get richer/work harder/be more prosperous. It depends how you sell it. /4

So take this 2017 story from The Sun on the cash bonanza that will be rained down on hardworking families by Brexiteers' (long standing) desire to scrap the 48-hour week. Overtime booooom..../5

https://t.co/QLqQ7rCzkv
BREXIT
Advertisement
Peter Foster
Peter Foster
@pmdfoster
🚨🇬🇧🇪🇺🚛🍤🐟🥬📦✈️🇬🇧🇪🇺🚨
So here it is. After the euphoria, the @FinancialTimes @FTMag long read of how @BorisJohnson did his Trade deal with the EU. Tl:dr...not so much “build back better”, more “build back the borders” - stay with me/1.

@FTMag @BorisJohnson The really under-appreciated part of this story is the extent to which the Johnson government, having won its 80 seat majority promising to "Get Brexit Done" then explicitly and actively chose the hardest possible version of #brexit in defiance of commercial interests /2

@FTMag @BorisJohnson Our story begins in January last year when David Frost commenced what Whitehall insiders call a "Star Chamber" process to strip away anything that might be considered more than a "Canada-style" deal - regardless of the fact that UK doesn't trade with EU like Canada! /3


@FTMag @BorisJohnson So what did that mean in practice?

Well, for example leaving EU aviation safety agency (EASA); Chemicals agency (ECHA), not getting a waiver of 'safety and security' declarations for hauliers, not seeking special arrangements for animal products...on and on it goes /4

@FTMag @BorisJohnson Didn't industry object? Well yes it did - but those who yelled too hard found themselves shut out of the door.

Did Whitehall object? Yes it did - Defra and Beis and Treasury all tried at some level to temper the revolutionary fury. But mostly failed. /5
BREXIT
Peter Foster
Peter Foster
@pmdfoster
🚨🚨🚚🚛🚨🚨email from Robert Hardy @RobHardyFR8 whose Customs Clearance Consortium is part of govt’s £200m scheme for GB-NI border warns of “huge shortage” of customs agents. Via @SJAMcBride /1

https://t.co/WoLWdI8LoF


He adds: “Export from GB with import to Ireland [is] amongst the most complicated...We expect heavy volumes at Dover from tonight as GB exports start to ramp up and many transporters do not have transit and EU clearance in place.” ...remember @BrandonLewis ‘no border’ tweet 🙄/2


He then warns - as @RHARichardB had warned - that the issue is companies providing poorly cleansed/matched data...and announces CCC doesn’t have capacity to raise docs in mainland EU/3


This is example of what Biz needs to do when moving agri foods - hauliers and vets tell me there is still no solution from Defra/Daera on how to do multiple pickups that require export health certificates at each stop (not uncommon) /4


In the next week or two we’ll see how these issue play into supply chains - and the issue that trucks flow in a cycle, GB-NI/IE-GB...so you need enough returning to keep the flow going. /5
FINANCE
Peter Foster
Peter Foster
@pmdfoster
The UK refusing to give full diplomatic status the EU's mission in London is baffling at at time when @BorisJohnson is trying to connect with @JoeBiden - because it recalls what Trump administration did to the EU ambassador back in 2019. Stay with

@JoeBiden The spat has been going for a while - we reported it in May, when the #Brexit trade talks were getting testy and - I assumed - it was the UK seeking a bit of leverage as the talks progressed. But we have a deal...and still no deal on the EU

@JoeBiden Essentially the UK government wants to treat the @EUdelegationUK as a "international organisation based in London" - and not accord it full diplomatic status, as almost every other country in the world does, including the United States /3

@JoeBiden @EUdelegationUK Indeed when EU formed it's External Action Service (EEAS) the UK supported the idea that EU representatives should be full ambassadors - a fact reflected in the Treaty of Lisbon which we signed - and which reflected on fact EU had a currency, made laws etc. /4

@JoeBiden @EUdelegationUK It took some time for everyone to recognise this, but after @BarackObama came to power in 2016 even the USA did the same....then along came Donald Trump and in 2019 surreptitiously downgraded the status of the EU ambassador @D0Sullivan /4
BREXIT

More from Brexit

Howard Goodall
Howard Goodall
@Howard_Goodall
Dear fellow musicians, performers, technicians etc. Here’s a thread about how our lives are going to change re touring/working in the EU in 50 days time. Think of it as a kind of Bad News Advent calendar. Here goes 1/

First things first, you’ll need a passport with at least 6 months left on it. And you’ll need full travel/third party/health insurance, since if you get ill or have an accident every penny of your care will have to be paid for 2/

To work or do a gig you’re going to need a work visa, just like you do for the USA. But here’s the thing. Work permits & visas and the conditions attached are a matter not for the EU but for the member states themselves 3/

Yes, every member state controls who comes in and who doesn’t and what the rules will be for work and residency. It’s almost as if the Brexiters have been lying about this ALL ALONG. EU members CONTROL THEIR OWN BORDERS 4/

So you’ll need to get a work permit for every country you’re intending to work or gig in and the rules are often different, as are the rules on eg taxation of that work (eg Spain has a withholding tax, France does not) 5/
EU , BREXIT
Ronnie MB \U0001f1eb\U0001f1f0 (Ronnie MacLennan Baird)
Ronnie MB 🇫🇰 (Ronnie M...
@RMBFLK
I've been tweeting a lot about UK #OverseasTerritories not being part of the #Brexit deal and a bit more has emerged ...

#Falklands MLA @teslynbark has answered a q about #Brexit and the #Falklands on fb - highlights:

1 Original UK EU mandate didn't include OTs except for Gibraltar.

2 In May, EU said they didn't have a mandate to negotiate for their OTs and wouldn't negotiate on UK OT issues.

(2 possibly explains what @BorisJohnson said about EU "intransigence" in his Christmas message to the #Falklands, but wasn't mentioned when he replied to a pmq from @DerekTwiggMP earlier in the month)

3 @teslynbark says that @falklandsgov held that the new spirit of negotiations that evolved through the year gave space for #Falklands interests to be raised in #BrexitDeal talks and asking for detail on how they were raised by UK Government ...

4 @teslynbark says future negotiations with the EU aren't held to the same mandate as before so @falklandsgov to keep pushing to have #Falklands trade concerns raised
BREXIT
Advertisement
Buck Frexit! \U0001f1ea\U0001f1fa\U0001f49c\U0001f499\U0001f30d #FBPE #ElectoralReform
Buck Frexit! 🇪🇺💜💙🌍 #FB...
@Beany_1
Project fear - a media friendly term which at one stroke, mocked the expertise of those at many of the coal faces of Brexit and dismissed it with a sneer. Yet, just 9 days in, it looks very much like project fear predictions were true and should have been heeded.

Thread

Project fear was not a myth. It was the truth.


Project fear was not a myth. It was the truth.


Project fear was not a myth. It was the truth.


Project fear was not a myth. It was the truth.
BREXIT
VIADUCT
VIADUCT
@viaduct_eu
As we continue to recap our work for the #VIADUCT_EU project over the years, take a look below at our thirteen VIADUCT Newsletters!

These are where we kept our network and you up to date of all our activities

/THREAD


Our first newsletter kicked off the #VIADUCT_EU project with an editorial from our project leaders @FundaTekin17 of @IEP_Berlin and Wolfgang Wessels of @UniCologne

➡️

In this early newsletter, @tomas_weiss wrote a fascinating piece on relations between the EU and Turkey after PESCO

➡️

Check out Meltem Müftüler Baç's editorial here on the future of the EU-Turkey partnership in the early days of the #VIADUCT_EU project

➡️

"Arranging EU-Turkey cooperation in the era of transactional leadership" was the title of the @FIIA_fi Senior Research Fellow @ToniAlaranta's editorial in this #VIADUCT_EU Newsletter

➡️
BREXIT
David Henig
David Henig
@DavidHenigUK
So many stories of new barriers to trade between UK and EU, but you might be thinking at some point these will run out. The government is certainly hoping so. Well they may slow down, but trade relations and regulations are not static, and changes will lead to further problems.

The likelihood of continued trade problems for a £650 bn trade relationship is why there should be a huge cross-government effort led by the Foreign Office and Department for International Trade to put in place the necessary resources to seek best results.

There isn't.

So the UK's relationship with the EU currently consists of two not particularly good deals and no consistent effort to manage current problems or prevent future ones. Joint committees are a second order problem to putting in place the right internal structures.

But that's been the consistent UK problem in relations with the EU since 2016. Lack of focus on getting the right internal structures, people, asks, strategy, too much attention on being tough and a single leader.

News just in. This doesn't necessarily mean the right structure being put into UK-EU relations. I suspect Frost's main role is to ensure no renegotiations with the EU.

Also, wonder what this says about the PM's trust in Michael Gove?
BREXIT

You May Also Like

Invest Like the Best
Invest Like the Best
@InvestLikeBest
In 1937, a trucker got frustrated waiting for his cargo to be unloaded. He later sold his company for $1.1 billion.

Here’s the story of how Malcom McLean made a billion dollars and which startup could be following in his footsteps. (Inspired by our episode with @laurabehrenswu)


In the early 1950s, the shipping industry was a dying business.

New York’s docks were handling half as much domestic cargo in the early 1950s as they had been in the depressed 1930s.

In thirty years, no one had invested significant money in coastal shipping.

Why?

As McLean found out, loading ships was difficult and slow.

A truck or train would deliver items to the port. Each item was unloaded separately, recorded, and carried to storage.

When a ship was ready, each item was taken from storage, counted again, and hauled on-board.


The cost of this labor was significant. As one expert at the time explained:

“A four-thousand-mile voyage for a shipment might consume 50 percent of its costs in covering just the two ten-mile movements through two ports.”


Yet, despite the industry’s issues, it felt little pressure to change.

Foreigners were barred from operating domestically. Cartels ran international routes. And gov. subsidies eased the pain of labor costs.

Reshaping the industry needed an outsider.

Enter Malcolm McLean.
HISTORY
Sam Rocha
Sam Rocha
@SamRochadotcom
THREAD

I get asked for writing tips a lot. Of all the ones I’ve given, here are a few of the ones that seem to hold true and remain somewhat universal or at least mostly unobjectionable:

#amwriting #writingtips

1. If you are a fast writer (i.e., if you compose first drafts very quickly) then you absolutely must become a slow editor. Much of what I call “writing” is really, for me, editing.

2. If you don’t read you cannot write a lot or well. Sure, maybe you can read like a maniac for a decade and then read less after that, but without some large volume of intake, there will never be a meaningful output.

2.1 I sometimes say that I feel like writing without reading is like trying to run a marathan on a cracker. And sadly I see many students struggling to write when they have simply never read enough to fuel that demand of the task at hand.

3. All writing is writing if one decides to treat it that way. If one takes some degree of intentional will when sending emails, posting on social media and writing notes and marginalia, then all of that can count as meaningful daily writing.
ALL
Advertisement
Marina Amaral
Marina Amaral
@marinamaral2
Rio de Janeiro, 1920. 🇧🇷


São Paulo, 1910. 🇧🇷


“Arpoador”, Rio de Janeiro, 1900. 🇧🇷


“Avenida Paulista”, São Paulo, 1902. 🇧🇷


Recife, 1885. 🇧🇷
HISTORY
Vibhu Vashisth
Vibhu Vashisth
@VIBHU_Tweet
Santkumaras-The four adorable kids of the Universe.

The Kumaras r the four sages who roam the Universe as children from the Puranic texts of Hinduism named,Sanaka, Sanatana,Sanandana& Sanatkumara.They r described as the first mind-born creations &sons of the creator God Brahma.


Brahma,who had received the knowledge of Puranas from the Universal being(God Himself), imbibed this to his 4 Kumaras.
Sanat Kumaras then taught the Puranas to Narada.Narada transmitted it to Krishna Dwaipayana who in turn scripted them in monumental epic documents of 18 Puranas.

The Vishnu Purana is recorded in two parts,the Vishnu Purana & Naradiya Purana.The teachings of Sanaka of the Kumara brothers r contained in the Naradiya Purana which is also divided in two parts, the first part containing the teachings of Sanaka &second part,teachings of others.


Born from Brahma's mind,4 Kumars took lifelong vows of celibacy against their father's wishes.They r said to wander throughout materialistic &spiritualistic universe without any desire but with the aim to teach.All 4 brothers studied Vedas from their Childhood&travelled together.


The Bhagwata Purana lists the Kumaras among the 12 Mahajanas(great devotees or bhaktas) who although being eternally liberated souls from birth, still became attracted to the devotional service of Vishnu from their already enlightened state.
ALL
Andrew Chen
Andrew Chen
@andrewchen
1/ new essay: What's next for marketplace startups? Reinventing the $10 trillion service economy, that's what. Co-authored with @ljin18 https://t.co/fgKbrHTnH5. A short thread 👇

2/ Marketplace startups have done incredibly well over the first few decades of the internet, reinventing the way we shop for goods, but have been less successful services. It's bc services are complex, subjective, fragmented, and often in real life. Makes it hard

3/ There's been 4 major eras at making the service economy work online. The Listings Era, the unbundled Craiglist era, the Uber for X era, and the Managed Marketplace era


4/ Each era has added more value than the last, and utilized technology innovations, from internet to social / "read/write web" to mobile. The "Unbundling Craigslist" era was particularly epic at generating startup ideas


5/ The problem is, all the low-hanging fruit has been picked off. The techniques that got us to here won't get us to the next phase. So we have to do some pretty different things. That's why "Managed Marketplaces" have been a big deal - hire folks as W-2s, certify quality, etc.
STARTUPS