🚨🚨🚚🚛🚨🚨email from Robert Hardy @RobHardyFR8 whose Customs Clearance Consortium is part of govt’s £200m scheme for GB-NI border warns of “huge shortage” of customs agents. Via @SJAMcBride /1

https://t.co/WoLWdI8LoF

BREAK: The UK drops all its 'law breaking' clauses - including plans for more in forthcoming taxation bill - after @michaelgove
and @MarosSefcovic agree deal on terms of implementing Northern Irish Protocol. 1/

https://t.co/MdBbcI8vjd

@MarosSefcovic This is obviously very good news - recalling that it relates to the implementation of last autumn's deal to allow #Brexit to happen without returning a trade border to island of Ireland...but leaving one in the Irish Sea. /2

@MarosSefcovic The statement says that the two sides have determined "criteria for goods to be considered 'not at risk' of entering the EU" - though the extent to which goods pay tariffs UK-EU will depend on whether we get an FTA with the EU. (Even if we do, some still will) /3

@MarosSefcovic The two sides have also agreed on the 'reachback' of Article 10 or the "application of State aid under the terms of the Protocol" which the UK govt feared could be used to constrain UK govt subsidy decisions after January 1 /4

@MarosSefcovic This was because EU state aid law applied to UK in respect of NI Goods - so risk of 'catching' a UK decision to, say, give a bank a tax break if it had NI Clients...thereby blowing hole in @BorisJohnson 'sovereign' Brexit. An understanding has been reached here. /5

NEW. 🚨🚨🚛🇬🇧🙄🚛🚚🚨🚨 clear signs govt is preparing for coming #brexit turbulence - consulting on new fast-track scheme for food lorries returning to Europe /1



The idea is that 300 lorries a day will be granted 'fast track' permits so they can go back EU and replenish supplies...this is because (see below) the gov fears that potential for disruption is "high" /2

The 8-page consultation document notes this is both because of #Brexit but also because of #COVID19 and continued French insistence on checks on all drivers from UK. /3

Lots arriving in Kent without clear tests SO separately Dept for Transport is considering £150 fines for drivers that don't have clean tests before entering Kent - problem, say hauliers, is that this requires communicating with EU-based drivers (85% from EU) /4

The govt is worried that disruptions will risk the kind of panic-buying we saw in early #COVID19 pandemic /5

🚨🇬🇧🇪🇺🏴󠁧󠁢󠁥󠁮󠁧󠁿🇮🇪🚚🚚🇬🇧🇪🇺🚨

As #brexit talks drift towards the rocks, trade groups say plans for Irish Sea trade border after Brexit are ‘in a mess’ via, my latest via @FT ...this is an issue coming deal or no deal. Stay with me 1/


So to recap, under Northern Ireland protocol negotiated in the Withdrawal Agreement all goods going from Great Britain to NI must confirm with EU customs code. To avoid new border in Ireland, that means trade border in Irish Sea - new paperwork, new systems. Operational Jan 1/2

The problem is that because the FTA negotiations are stuck, the negotiations in the Joint Committee on how to implement the Protoocl (and @michaelgove is with @MarosSefcovic talking today) haven't yet born fruit. That means a LOT of uncertainty. /3

@michaelgove @MarosSefcovic How much uncertainty? Well, as @MichaelAodhan tells me, a lot. Research by the Northern Ireland Business Brexit Working Group (NIBBWG) found only 20% of members were ready. And its not their fault: need info on tarifs, computer systems etc. And are not getting answers /3

@michaelgove @MarosSefcovic @MichaelAodhan Now. The Government has earmarked £200m for the Trade Support Service run by Fujitsu and the Customs Clearance Consortium with @ShankerASingham @RobHardyFR8 to help business process new paperwork...BUT even it cannot answer lots of Qs, and won't help with animal/SPS issues. /4

1/ Thread: $GOOG 4Q'20 Update

For the first time, GOOG segmented its cloud revenues/income separately, and overall revenue was >20% in 4Q which led to +7% after-hours reaction yesterday.

Here are my notes from earnings/press release.

2/ In the last quarter, here is the segment-wise growth:

Search +17.4%
YouTube ads +46.0%
Google Network Members +22.9%
Cloud +46.6%

Cloud more than doubled in the last two years.
Other bets losses $4.5 Bn in 2020 (vs $4.8 Bn in 2019)

3/ Operating margin in Q4 ~28%
FCF margin in Q4 ~30%

One of the big takeaways was the core business was even MORE profitable than most investors thought since cloud had -42.9% operating margin.

$GOOG's search business is a good comp for Fed in terms of "printing" money. JK.

4/ "you can track takeout and delivery orders when you book or order from Google Maps"

"More than 0.5 million channels livestreamed on YouTube for the first time in 2020"

"videos in our new Shorts player are receiving 3.5 billion daily views."

5/ Google Pay app is now used by >150 mn people in 30 countries.

Cloud backlog $30 Bn now (from $19 Bn in Q3)

# of Deals >$250 Mn became >3x

Waymo is providing hundreds of fully AV rides per week

Retail searches >3x YoY

Cloud operating losses flat YoY

Some interesting snippets from @MotilalOswalLtd 25th Wealth Creation Study:

(A Short thread)

1. Consumer/Retail is the biggest wealth-creating sector over 25 years.

2. Almost 60 of the top 100 market cap companies in 1995 did not make it to the Wealth Creators list.

3.Corporate profit to GDP at all-time lows + Market cap to GDP close to an all-time high.

4. Permanent change in the long term interest rate band is leading to a change in valuation expectations.

5. Twenty-five stocks for the next twenty-five years. Read the Disclaimer.

The payments wars in Japan are heating up and one of the battlegrounds is convenience store coffee.

“Coffee? What does that have to do with payments?” I’m glad you asked.

Convenience stores are low net margin businesses, which sell some high gross margin goods/services but a lot of low ones, and have high fixed costs and a low ticket size. The typical transaction is under 500 yen ($5) and many are about $1.

They need repeat custom.

A few years ago, all of the chains had a good idea for increasing frequency of use: make a minor capital investment in automatic coffee machines. Sell access to them for the price of a cup / ice; customers self-serve with the machine.

The price point is $1 to about $2.

Coffee quickly became one of the most frequently repurchased items at convenience stores, in no small part because it’s the one thing they can sell which is phameceutically habit forming but totally unregulated. (Just telling it like it is.)

But the coffee is not very defensible

The problem, such that it is, is that competing chains are everywhere and *all* of them serve Thoroughly Adequate Coffee at similar prices, so you’re back into the brutal economics of “Who is 3 meters closer to 40 customers at 1 office?”

Enter payment apps.

A potential problem is looming, and the media are pursuing a new story that builds on the following chain of reasoning: 1) higher inflation is coming;2) if CBs increase interest rates debts will explode and recession may ensue; 3) CBs are caught in an impossible dilemma 1/12

It´s perhaps too complex for some tweets, but.. Registered inflation this year is bound to be higher than present forecasts, resulting from one-off price spikes and base effects That will not start a sustained high inflation process, but temporary higher inflation is possible 2/

For example, Euro Area inflation increased suddenly from several months at -0.3% to +0.9% in Jan. This jump resulted mostly from several base effects, especially the change to German VAT. Inflation expectations increasing but higher in the US than in the EA 3/

The major one-off base effect will come from oil prices that decreased abysmally in March 2020 and have recovered. Some estimates put US inflation in April reaching 4%! After vaccinations, later in the year, pent-up consumer demand will also increase prices.4/

Despite the increased spending of accumulated savings, the savings rate will remain higher than before Covid for precautionary reasons (Fig 1). No permanent spending spree will materialise. Wages will remain subdued for a while (Fig2). Higher but not high inflation is coming.5/

Everything You Need To Know about Emergency Funds

A Thread 🧵👇

1/ Let’s understand the meaning of Emergency Fund, it is a fund that will help you at the time of financial crisis or unplanned scenarios. It is also known as contingency funds.

An Emergency Fund is the first step towards financial freedom.

2/ For example, when the Covid-19 hits many people lose their jobs which results in loss of financial support and people find difficulties buying basic necessities for themselves. So, having emergency funds helps you to sustain the period.

3/ Now the question arises, how to build an Emergency Fund?

An emergency fund cannot be built overnight but it can be done gradually. Firstly, you need to analyse your monthly expenses and then, you need to set aside a particular amount every month.

4/ Say, you have decided to have an emergency fund of ₹3 lakhs. In this case, you can set aside ₹45000 or ₹50000 every month to accumulate the corpus you need. It is fine to even cut down on your investments to build this amount.