BC BREXIT

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David Henig
@DavidHenigUK 4 years, 4 months ago 553 views

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Just bringing together my various bits and pieces on the UK-EU. The first reactions - a significant agreement...

Winners and losers of the UK-EU deal. https://t.co/WeQDLXdokr

Why this was always going to be a problem - regulatory soverignty v free trade involves trade offs... https://t.co/DloE0sQeDh

Going back to mid-2019, why the deal the UK wanted from the EU, the same benefits with none of the costs, couldn't be available. https://t.co/LHZyPEj8qt

More recently, why the Brexit dream is dying - because it wasn't designed to deal with a situation where we had to choose between trade with the EU and freedom. https://t.co/UTSoqH8Cgi

And from my most recent thread - how the PM squares the circle - by telling stories of triumph that don't match the reality of what is actually happening between the UK and EU. Which is now the next challenge. https://t.co/ujnF144sOa

The fracturing of UK politics into the comic book version of heroes and villains, and the real one of trade-offs and choices. But the first is more fun, and the PM plays it well. The second one is dull by comparison.
— David Henig (@DavidHenigUK) December 27, 2020

PS a reader usefully suggests an incongruity between my first piece on the deal (the UK didn't just roll over) and second (the UK conceded to get the deal). Timing mostly. The UK didn't just roll over from day one. But did at the end. My bad though for not being clear enough.

More from David Henig

David Henig
@DavidHenigUK

The first working day of the new UK-EU relationship. We're going to hear a lot this year from all sides (remain and Brexit in UK, EU, etc) using any possible scrap of evidence. But what we need to look for is trends, over time, so a few to think about in this thread... 1/

Obvious disruption or reduction to UK-EU trade flow. Here we may be thinking e.g. of a permanent 10% fall in traffic, or regular queues, or indeed no change. And apart from goods, the same with individual travel, for work, residence etc... 2/

As a reminder we're not expecting permanent scenes like those of the week before Christmas when borders were closed. But 5-10% reductions in UK-EU traffic would not seem to be out of line with economic forecasts of a hit to the UK economy. 3/

Then we'll need to look at whether UK-EU trade is being substituted by UK-non EU trade. This probably should happen to a degree, and in theory efficiencies could come this way. But its also possible that all UK trade falls, with the UK no longer an EU entry point. 4/

Inward investment is another key post-Brexit indicator. There isn't a single obvious data set here, but the impression of the last four years has been a fall off in manufacturing, but not in services, particularly tech. Continuation would suggest economy tilting to services. 5/

David Henig
@DavidHenigUK

So, deal or no-deal? I'm afraid it looks gloomy. Too many outstanding issues, a political context that is not conducive to compromise, and a tunnel leaking like mad. Quite possibly forming between them a vicious cycle. So, is this it? I suspect not... 1/n

Recall, this UK-EU negotiation is attempting to put in place an agreement unusually extensive (haulage, aviation, security, as well as trade) in a record timescale (9 months start to implementation) at a time of pandemic. That was always optimistic. 2/

A process driven EU against a naive yet overconfident UK in a short timeframe was also never going to be easy. In particular the UK's sole evident negotiating strategy, to say we'll walk away, is still in overdrive, making compromise harder. 3/

On the up side the UK has been inching slowly away from the purist notions of sovereignty which would prevent any deal towards a more realistic haggle over details, but possibly too late to resolve them, barring unexpected deep late concessions from either side. 4/

Geography isn't changing, and trading more with neighbours isn't either. Virtually all countries in the world have deals with their neighbours. It is unrealistic for the UK to be the sole developed country exception. Even if it takes a while. 5/

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David Henig
@DavidHenigUK

Ten days in and it seems the government's post-Brexit economic policy is to ignore reality, priority and choice, and just claim with no evidence that everything is going to be great. This, needless to say, is dangerous territory. Exhibit 1... 1/

Here's a good example of what is currently passing for UK economic policy. The theory the UK can be 'nimble' in regulations has been present since 2016. In 5 years nobody has found the detail. We presume others might have a similar idea. And trade needs regulations to align 2/

There will of course always be someone to blame. Usually the EU. Because they do indeed want to compete with the UK. This is not exactly surprising. A vague UK idea versus the bigger next door market (or indeed a big one over the pond). Who's going to win? 3/

Next, 'Global Britain' and specifically the Liz Truss speech in the Commons yesterday. To summarise, we are going to do trade deals on everything with everyone while still protecting UK industry and poor countries. Yup, more warm words and no priorities.

Useful example here. The long running EU-US trade battle over food, one claiming to be about quality, the other science. The UK solution. We'll do both! Fabulous, why did nobody think of this before? Unless they did, and found they still had to choose. Note other warm words 5/

David Henig
@DavidHenigUK

Today's UK-EU trade deal reflection - what is rarely stated in discussions about the deal's shortcomings is that they reflect UK government policy choices - in particular that control of immigration and a US trade deal are a higher priority than an EU deal.

Thus, why was it not a UK government priority to secure for UK musicians the rights to tour the EU? Because that would probably have required a reciprocal right to be given to those in the EU, which we didn't want to give. Choice.

Meanwhile why did the UK government not seek or secure a reduction in food inspections for GB products going to the EU? Because that would probably have required fixing food regulations in a way that might have been an obstacle to a US trade deal.

Works the other way as well. Why did the EU refuse UK requests on mutual recognition of industrial testing? In part at least because of UK lack of commitment on maintaining the previous EU system of standards and conformity assessment which might be a problem in a US deal.

One of the strangest opinions in the London politics bubble is that the UK government isn't that bothered about a US trade deal, as it so obviously goes against the evidence. There might be domestic opposition, but this was to be Brexit Dividend Number 1.

David Henig
@DavidHenigUK

How to make sense of the increasing number of UK-EU trade disruption stories?

In short - outside of a single market product checks and people working restrictions are inevitable. And outside a customs union you will have tariffs and / or rules of origin.

Detail ---> 1/

The UK decided to leave a Customs Union. Within that Customs Union, no tariffs, just a common external tariff or preferential rates for bilateral deals or developing countries. Hence, distribution hubs in one country for all make a lot of sense. 2/

Outside a Customs Union our choice was tariffs under WTO rules or remove them subject to rules of origin with a deal. We chose the latter, but it means we can't just import from China, rebadge, and get zero tariffs from the EU. As we could until December 31. 3/

Net result of being outside of the Customs Union - it no longer makes sense for the UK to be a distribution hub for the whole of Europe. Particularly when so many neighbouring countries remain in it. No trade deal changes that. 4/

Now, product checks, of the sort causing problems for food exporters (see Scottish seafood). In the single market, we shared regulations, so a safe product in the UK was safe in France. No inspections. We chose to leave that system, as we want to change some regulations. 5/

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Helene von Bismarck
@HeleneBismarck

While we await white smoke signalling a #Brexit deal, let us consider what the end of the transition period on 31 Dec (deal or no deal) will mean for the future of UK politics. Will the end of the Brexit process lead to the end of British #populism? I am very sceptical.
Thread 1/

This thread serves as an English summary and translation of a long essay I published in the Swiss @RepublikMagazin last week. Contrary to its title, it is not just about @BorisJohnson

British populism is a political method, not an ideology. It is not identical with Trumpism, even if it shares some of its traits. The populist method in the UK does not become redundant with #Brexit, because its use hasn't been limited to the UK's relationship with the EU.
3/

The populist method in the UK consists of two key elements:
1) the emotionalization and over-simplification of highly complex issues (such as Brexit, the pandemic, migration, culture or history)
2) the reliance on bogeymen ('enemies') both abroad and at home

4/

Populists depend on enemies, real or imagined, to legitimize their actions and deflect from their own shortcomings. There has been an obvious candidate for the enemy abroad since 2016: the EU. But once transition is over, this may, in the long term, become more difficult.
5/

Simon Usherwood
@Usherwood

Your regular reminder that Brexit is going badly because the UK has still to decide what the purpose of leaving the EU is

1/

#EUref came about as piece of party mgt by Cameron, rather than as culmination of considered and structured debate about UK's place in the world

2/

Yes, we talked a lot (A LOT) about 'Europe' and the EU, but primarily as a function of lots of other things

A touchstone of dissent, if you will (h/t @PaulAdamTaggart)

3/

Referendum campaigns on both sides were simply about getting people to vote their way, not efforts to set out settled plans of What Comes Next

"Vote for us and everything will be dandy" is not a plan

4/

That might have been alright if post-vote there had been a national discussion on how to proceed in an inclusive manner, but instead the political logic pointed to trying to capture the meaning of it all to serve particular agendas

All very majoritarian, as per

5/

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Bobby McDonagh
@BobbyMcDonagh1

A Christmas Carol. My Brexit “take” on a popular seasonal tale. Happy Christmas everyone @mrjamesob @campbellclaret @chrisgreybrexit @rafaelbehr

It was Christmas Eve in Downing Street. PM Ebenezer Johnson was sitting alone in his office, colouring in a picture of sunny uplands. He was looking forward to a jolly Christmas and a glorious future for his country.

Suddenly there was a knock at the door and a wraith materialised in the semi-darkness. “I am”, he announced, “the Ghost of Christmas Past”. “What ho”, replied the PM, “what can I do for you? “

The ghost explained that he had been living in the attic of Number 10 since Winston Churchill’s day. Ever since It has been his practice to appear every Christmas Eve to update the PM on the country’s progress.

Over many decades, the ghost had been able to report on the great influence the UK had come to wield, in Europe and beyond, by working closely with its European neighbours; and on how the UK had used its sovereignty effectively to advance its interests.

Dr Matt Prescott
@mattprescott

As someone whose been researching BREXT, TRUMP + RUSSIA for a couple of years, it's pretty amazing to see the media suddenly starting to ring alarm bells - after yesterday's FASCIST COUP attempt! Too many have been positively incurious or complicit with boosting TRUMP + BREXIT.

The number of JOURNALISTS and CITIZEN RESEARCHERS who have been trying to investigate the links between TRUMP, BREXIT and RUSSIA is remarkably small, and so tiny that we have all more or less found each other on Twitter... I think this is shameful.

Below I will try to credit some of the people who have made important contributions and tried to explore different aspects of this terrifying, sophisticated and wide-ranging attack on democracy... Some won't want public acknowledgement because of the associated attacks + dangers.

Carole CADWALLADR : @carolecadwalla : has done more than anyone else to highlight the role of social media, data mining and profiling in attacking DEMOCRACY. Her warnings and scoops have been studiously ignored by many in power.

... a library of Carole's articles can be found here :

$Ronnie MB \U0001f1eb\U0001f1f0 (Ronnie MacLennan Baird)$

Ronnie MB 🇫🇰 (Ronnie M...
@RMBFLK

I've been tweeting a lot about UK #OverseasTerritories not being part of the #Brexit deal and a bit more has emerged ...

#Falklands MLA @teslynbark has answered a q about #Brexit and the #Falklands on fb - highlights:

1 Original UK EU mandate didn't include OTs except for Gibraltar.

2 In May, EU said they didn't have a mandate to negotiate for their OTs and wouldn't negotiate on UK OT issues.

(2 possibly explains what @BorisJohnson said about EU "intransigence" in his Christmas message to the #Falklands, but wasn't mentioned when he replied to a pmq from @DerekTwiggMP earlier in the month)

3 @teslynbark says that @falklandsgov held that the new spirit of negotiations that evolved through the year gave space for #Falklands interests to be raised in #BrexitDeal talks and asking for detail on how they were raised by UK Government ...

4 @teslynbark says future negotiations with the EU aren't held to the same mandate as before so @falklandsgov to keep pushing to have #Falklands trade concerns raised

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Simon DeDeo
@SimonDeDeo

So, today, for the first time in 25 (!) years of Apple, I downgraded. From the 2016 MacBook Pro to my 2013, which I had kept in a drawer...

It was pretty simple to do—Apple Time Machine backups let me do it with one click.

That first tweet captures, in two pictures, how badly Apple has “lost the plot” (to quote @wylieprof). On the right is the Apple MagSafe adapter, from 2013. On the left, what I had “upgraded” to.

Thanks, Apple! I really was nostalgic for worrying about yanking my computer off the table.

Oh and I really appreciated not knowing if my computer was charging. What was great was the little whoop sound you used, so that the speaker before me could be informed I was charging my laptop.

Anu Satheesh
@AnuSatheesh5

Beautiful story of Shri Krishna, Mata Rukmini & Satyabhama which teaches the importance of Bhakthi.
Devotion is important than anything.
#bhakthi
🕉
Satyabhama, royal princess was very proud of herself. Rukmini was very humble, her devotion was pure to Shri Krishna.

One day, Rishi Narada( Kalahapriya) arrived in Dwaraka and met Sathyabhama. In between the conversation he hinted that Krishna exhibits affection more to Rukmini than her. Worried Sathyabhama asked what can should be done to gain Krishna's undivided attention.
@SriramKannan77

Narada asked Satyabhama to make a vow, that she will hand over Krishna to him as a slave, if she cannot trade wealth equivalent to Krishna's weight. Narada thus convinces Sathyabhama that Krishna will admire her for sacrificing all her wealth for him.

Sathyabhama was sure that she have enough wealth to balance Krishna.

She went to Krishna and told about her vow to Narada. Krishna patiently listened to her and accepted the challenge. Satyabhama arranged to bring large scales to weigh and brought all her precious jewels.

Krishna patiently sat on one plate of the Scales (tula). Sathyabhama started piling up the gold, jewels on the other plate. She kept adding more and more wealth, but the pan with Krishna did not even budge. Even after keeping all her jewels the scale did not move a little

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Vibhu Vashisth
@VIBHU_Tweet

RANI GAIDINLIU:THE LESSER KNOWN FREEDOM FIGHTER

Rani Gaidinliu joined the freedom struggle at 13 &was sentenced to life imprisonment at 16."We r free people—the White should not rule over us.”Thus calling out to her Zeliangrong tribesmen was the voice of 13yr-old Rani Gaidinliu.

She joined the freedom struggle in the present-day Northeast India. Today, her struggle is lost in history as most of her countrymen wouldn’t even have heard her name. B'coz our history textbooks tell us that only Mahatma Gandhi &Pandit Nehru got India its Independence.

At 16 yrs of age, this valiant girl was sentenced to life imprisonment for leading a movement to drive out the colonial rulers from Manipur and Nagaland. Nevertheless, she was released in 1947 after India’s independence and was given the title ,"Rani of Nagas".

EARLY LIFE AND HERAKA MOVEMENT

Gaidinliu belonged to the Rongmei clan of the Zeliangrong tribe in the Tamenglong district of western Manipur. Born on January 26, 1915, she was fifth among eight children.

Her native village was Nungkao, which is present day Tamenglong distt. Brought up in a specially backward region,she couldn't receive any formal education. However,this didn't stop her from joining the freedom struggle. At the age of 10 she came under the influence of her cousin.

Mitesh Patel
@Mitesh_Engr

Again sharing bank nifty intraday weekly straddle. How to play by selling straddle.
Mostly will work on Monday to Wednesday. Sometimes on Friday.
Why to pay your money to learn this if u can get it here.
U need only practice.
Let’s go.

Say bank nifty future is at 32000.
Sell both 32000 call and put.
Considering current volatile market lest say premium on Monday morning is 350 on both sides.
Sold with 700 points combine premium.
If bank nifty will trade in narrow range say +\- 100 hold it.
If moving 200 points

then exit previous sold straddle. Sell new one. Let’s say BN moved +200
Now sell 32200. If bank nifty will move here within range then u will get profit through theta decay. Follow same procedure for next 150-200 pts move.

This is only for single straddle sell position.

Now in second case sell three straddle. 31900/32000/32100
In case of 100 points move no need to change.
If 200 + then future is 32200.
Exit 31900 and sell 31200 straddle.
If moving another 100 then exit 32000 and sell 32300. Continue same with 100 points move.
If no move then

it will consolidate between 32000-32200 or 32100 to 32300 and u will get theta decay.

This is for normal move. Sudden big move may come anytime. So keep SL in system.
If u r selling at 350-350 then keep SL in system 475 for both legs.
Practice it. No need to attend webinar.

Jig's Patel
@jigspatel1988

What is best way to sell strangle in Banknifty on an intraday basis
Simple
at 9:45 Open Option chain and check In which strike highest OI change in call side and put side

Sell both option with combine SL
Enjoy easy and simple intraday trading strategy
Today 35000CE and 34500PE