FELIXSTOWE, England (Reuters) -

In just one month of post-Brexit trading, British logistics expert Jon Swallow has seen exports dive, prices rise and customers so desperate that he is practically offering a counselling service.

Public notice from Hannants: UK's biggest model kit & accessories supplier

"There are still problems with sending parcels to the EU. To date only 3 parcels we sent have been delivered. Some are still in England. Some are in europe. We cannot find out what the problems are but .

suspect it is incorrect paperwork.
We are very sorry but we cannot start taking orders knowing that these problems exist. We are going to have to wait longer before we can re-open for EU orders but we cannot say when that will be. We cannot feed 100s of orders a day into a system

that is not working knowing they may not go anywhere.
Also bizarrely the new Royal Mail system can only accept parcels with 20 items or less in them. More than half the orders we send have more than 21 items in them. Parcelforce can take packages with any quantity of contents.

So somehow our website now needs to be modified so that if customer wants 20 items they see the Royal Mail/Parcelforce postage options but if there are more than 20 items they only get the Parcelforce option. We do not want to start work on that change at the moment.

We are no longer able to reply to emails asking when we will be opening up for EU orders. We are sorry but we do not know and we have no way to find out. Please see the message on the home page for the latest information.
DPD is still a problem and there has been little progress.

TRAGIC..
"And so it came to pass that alleged Prime Minister Alexander Boris de Pfeffel Johnson travelled to Brussels to personally take charge of the Brexit trade deal negotiations. He alone could break the deadlock, put the dastardly Eurocrats in their place and snatch victory

"It is day eight in a depot in Lymm just outside Warrington, Cheshire and a lorry carrying frozen carrots and mixed herbs is still waiting for clearance to board a ferry from Birkenhead to Belfast".
"because the paperwork for a single pallet of carrots is missing key information"

**Guardian Report**

Hundreds of miles away in Lisburn in Northern Ireland, the haulage firm’s operations team have had no luck in persuading the British supplier that the carrots that were ordered on 27 December are now, in the third week in January, classed as an export

and must be accompanied by a litany of documents and certificates before the trailer can be cleared to board the ferry at Birkenhead.
Another supplier on the lorry had been struggling with the documentation requiring it to supply what is known as an “Incoterms”, which determines

who pays the duty in any tariff but also establishes a specific record as to who is the importer. But that was resolved on day seven.
Then there was also the supplier who had provided a commodity code that was two digits short. A simple key stroke mistake could be difference

between the lorry getting the red or the green light for entry to NI.
“It took half a day yesterday for me to clear the supply chain. I’ve got one more issue to go,” says the visibly stressed operations man simultaneously dealing with a sheaf of about 30 documents for

Brexit. UK-EU talks. Let's try to explain why we're in such a state, of increased risk of no deal, moving away from the fish and playing fields which are the detail but not the answer, to differing philosophies and divorce parallels that might just help... 1/

First, with apologies to those concerned, we need to go beyond those saying this is the inevitable path to deal / no-deal. Half of them will be right and I'll definitely be wrong (don't worry, I'm hedged in wine bets), but it wasn't inevitable, typical, or necessary. 2/

I'll also ignore the content of any deal, which has been clear for months, the UK compromises on level playing field, the EU on fish. Something so obvious really isn't the fundamental issue. Could, as some not noted for their perspicacity have said, be done in an afternoon. 3/

Some truth in the idea that flounces and playing the tough cop are a part of trade negotiations. But equally as we're in about the 5th pass of these, I think it has ceased to be helpful. Either side could already have cut the deal having shown their toughness. 4/

Some fundamentals then, that we've forgotten. First, the trade deal that will lead to much less free trade than before. The incentive structures, the ability to create a win-win, are inevitably going to be different to a normal deal. 5/

I’m going to reproduce @3days3nights posts here for backup and to do a full unroll afterwards. All credit goes to him! - P1

Fish thread.
Having read the Brexit deal, I believe B. Johnson misled the nation on Thurs when he said Britain could catch “all the fish that it wants ” in UK waters in 5 years’ time. The clear presumption in the text is that EU fleets will have similar access after 2026.1/12

The UK fish industry will have to pay a high price in EU import tariffs if that access is withdrawn. Overall… the deal falls far short of the exaggerated “sea of opportunity” promises made to UK fishermen. 2/12

The headline quota compromise - reducing EU catches in the UK 200 mile zone by 25% over five and a half years – is balanced enough. But different fishers will study the small-print with delight OR anger. Some EU quotas will be cut more than others. 3/12

Fisheries, we were told, would be a big Brexit winner. No it won’t. On this deal, the UK industry will certainly lose more from Brexit (no more frictionless access to the EU market) than it gains (incremental, extra quotas over the next 5 years). 4/12

First…the length of the deal. The 5 and 1/2 years of cuts in EU quotas/increases in UK quotas, are laid out in annexes to the main treaty. The last column says “2026 onwards” In other words, the presumption is there will be no further cuts in EU quotas after that date. 5/12

When we had a [Brexit] deal, I thought, we're saved all the rigmarole and hassle, it'll work sweet as a nut, but it hasn't happened," says Mr Flannigan. Instead, he says, it feels like the clock's been turned back 30 years
People really don't have a "sweet as a nut" clue do they?

Yes "30 years" and worse ..because you are now outside the Single Market & "worse" outside the Customs Union too . You're now trading under conditions more like Belarussia into EU without the customs & logistical capacity to handle the volumes. Your business will most likely fail

This was always so ..regardless of the "deal" esp with "87% of Berwick Shellfish's £1.7m sales go to France, Spain and Germany"
Next....
"The real test for me is the next two to three weeks, as inventory is depleted and orders increase," says Mr Munro.

"He thinks there's a window of opportunity now, for the authorities to fine tune the system before volumes are ramped up" .. "fine tune" Oh FFS...!! wake up.

The BBC report a litany of businesses not understanding the "deal" was always going to mean being outside the SM/CU

"Mr Dormer fears the "massive amount of aggravation" could mean business partners on the continent start to look elsewhere.".....errrr ...yes.

Note how though the report leads with a suggestion of EU "pettiness"

At today's Future Relationship with the European Union Committee - we're hearing from @CSBarnard24 that the deal has a slightly "alice in wonderland quality" about it - nothing really appears quite as it first looks. If you compare to what we had until 1 Jan, it falls short. 1/

For example, there's a statement that the dispute resolution mechanisms doesn’t apply, but if you plough on until the end you see that some chunks of the DSM are actually incorporated over non-regression provisions. @CSBarnard24 2/

From @SamuelMarcLowe: "the premise of this agreement [is] to remove tariffs & do v little to remove barriers to trade and services. If you’re prioritising the economic status quo and economic integration with Europe then of course this deal is going to disappoint you." 3/

"This deal is actually very unstable", says @CSBarnard24. "One of the problems is that this constant contestation of the deal creates quite a lot of difficulties for businesses." 4/

"If you’re a car manufacturer that wants to invest in a new plant, you don’t know whether tariffs are going to be imposed either because the deal is brought to an end or due to potential govt retaliation - this is the main concern of this deal." @CSBarnard24 5/