BC BREXIT
Saved by @CodyyyGardner

As @michaelgove admitted yesterday we are expecting significant disruption in our #trade flows with the EU in coming days. The fact he is willing to say this confirms what most of us feel, that problems are building. This thread is a summary of what I have learnt in the past week

 DISCLAIMER I run a trade body and spent the week in my back bedroom on the phone to members, reading the media and on zoom calls. I’m not on the ground and I am not in the operation rooms. So my info is second hand and partial. No one has a complete view. IT IS HIDEOUSLY COMPLEX
The first obvious problem is the number of different actors involved. On the commercial side - within 1 exporter there are multiple depts. There is also the buying company and the logistics company. They all have to sync. 1 load of goods involves multiple commercial actors.
On the government side its even more complex. In UK there are dozens of departments and agencies involved, and the same if not more in every member state of the EU. there are hundreds of thousands of decision makers involved.
They all have the same rule book though - YES true but its 1200 pages long and it's 15 days old - also - here's the thing with red tape, it's open to interpretation. (It's why lawyers tend to drive nice cars) and so being BORDER READY means different things to different actors.
Millions of people, working to the policies and objectives of thousands of organisations, learning how to meet and enforce rules for the first time.

Also when it comes to border paperwork - it is not one piece of paper or process it can be dozens.
One major thing from this week is seeing in practice the reality we knew in theory, that the border isn't one physical place.

1/ Hauliers are now a 'border' having to refuse to carry loads for unready customers

2/ customs agents are a 'border' - not enough and overworked
3/ vets are now a 'border' having to complete complex paperwork

4/gov agencies like APHA are now a 'border' as they have to issue paperwork

Everyone has either got a new job, or one that is exponentially bigger than it was last week - each one can stop or slow goods
The reality of this week is that people have done their best and have learnt a lot, but in many cases they haven't got it 100% and that will have been masked because 'non-compliant' loads has been waved through with a warning (did the warning get back to the right people?)
As the pressure mounts, the ‘get through the news cycle’ approach of UK ministers will be to play things down, (see the first 12 hours of the covid French border crisis – 172 lorries 😡) and if and when that is not possible the shift will be to blame non-ready traders
They will be right to this extent - a business choosing to sell into a foreign market must meet the rules of the market they want to sell to. UK Gov can advise, but as has been proven many times recently there is a point where gov admits that the trader is on their own.
I admit to have made a mistake myself. I have spent endless hours debating and finetuning government advice and policy approaches with UK authorities. I have gone through the Border Operating Model (BOM) with a fine tooth comb…. but https://t.co/oQLuvFhEO7
the reality is that the UK BOM - comprehensive, daunting and complex read that it is - is essentially the UK Government’s hope of how things will work.

My briefing to members yesterday relied on documents like this
https://t.co/rjEWfpiC8V
and this from French authorities https://t.co/dZ2XvXL2YK
For trade bodies like ours our focus has to shift fast to a practical dialogue with the EU authorities on the ground. We have to (1) understand what they want, (2) where possible persuade them on interpretation changes and (3) help members do what they want.
Hopefully that will be enough and we will get through the next fortnight. However if not we are going to have to essentially plead for more unilateral action by EU authorities to extend informal 'grace periods'. like this one from Irish Customs https://t.co/lKuvTrUxLu
Again I know they don't have to - I know it's the law - and I know it was the UKs choice to leave. But this type of time limited, grace period on the enforcement of the rules will lead to better compliance and better outcomes for EU business too. Grey areas present all the time
Over the next few weeks we will see the birthpangs of our new trading reality. Boris Johnson is fond of the Australia model of trade. A core part of that is a business culture focused on opening up markets it requires responsiveness, persuasion, empathy and humility
The negative political relationship we inherit from the negotiations, goes deep into the regulatory and commercial links between UK and EU. It's not going to be easy and our ministers can probably do more harm than good right now.
So in coming days, as the blame game kicks in, we will have to work hard not to rise to the bait. A row with UK Ministers won't move a single lorry.

Our overriding question from here - what does the EU require and how do we make it happen?

That's what control looks like.

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John Lichfield
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Scoop...Britain faces dearer electricity and occasional black-outs if it bans EU fishing boats from its waters after 2026. This de facto power over the UK power market is handed to the EU in the post-Brexit deal which MP’s will wave almost unread through parliament today. 1/10

The trade deal enshrines a link between continued EU access to British waters and UK frictionless access to the EU power grid and gas network. This has scarcely been noticed though it was mentioned and brushed aside by last night’s statement by the ultra-Brexiteer ERG. 2/10

The link – drawn to my attention by a senior EU source – is spelled out in dates, not words. The fisheries part of the deal grants EU boats continued access with a 25% cut in quotas over five and a half years until 30 June 2026. After that there are “annual negotiations” 3/10

The energy part of the agreement allows the UK virtually unchanged access to the continental electricity and gas markets. But that expires on exactly the same date as the fish deal - 30 June, 2026. After that (guess what?) there are “annual negotiations". 4/10

Coincidence? Not at all, my source says. The link is “more than implicit”. The energy deal “ends by default” unless both sides agree to extend it.
If the UK bans, or severely restricts, EU boats in British waters from June 30, 2026….easy access to EU energy will also end. 5/10
BREXIT
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Ben W. Ansell
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🇬🇧🇪🇺 Who caused Hard Brexit? Some thoughts from the perspective of a social scientist. In the last few days we have seen an interminable debate on whether Remainers, Soft Brexiters, or Hard Brexiters are responsible for Hard Brexit. And it’s a false debate. Why? 1/n

People are confusing 'causes of effects' with 'effects of causes'. What this means is that we are all interested in - the former - why Hard Brexit happened - but using arguments about how one actor did something - the latter - as our explanation. These are different! 2/n

It is completely possible that Remainers not accepting a customs union increased the probability of Hard Brexit - that's an effect of a cause. But that does not imply responsibility. Because there are lots of other causes producing the same effect. 3/n

When most of us think about 'responsibility' we have clear lines of cause and effect. This one person did this one thing thus they are responsible. But with Brexit we have lots and lots of actors doing lots of things and we have ended up at this one historical moment. 4/n

So Boris choosing one of his letters; May wanting to end free movement; SNP/Lib Dems/ChangeUK (remember them?) not voting for customs union; they all contributed to a higher probability of Hard Brexit. But it's all so fantastically contingent that we can't pick out one. 5/n
BREXIT
George Peretz QC
George Peretz QC
@GeorgePeretzQC
A further thread on the EU/UK musicians/visa for paid work issue (the issue is paid work: travelling to sing or play at eg a charity event for free can be done without a visa).


The position that we now have now (no relevant provisions under the TCA) is complicated. For EU musicians visiting the UK see


In essence the UK permits foreign (including EU) nationals to stay up to 30 days to carry out paid engagements, but they must (a) prove they are a professional musician and (b) be invited by an established UK business.

Either condition could be tricky for a young musician starting out and wanting to play gigs. And 30 days isn’t long enough for a part in a show with a run.

Longer stays require a T5 visa - which generally requires you to be in a shortage occupation (play an instrument not played in the UK?) or to have an established international reputation.
BREXIT
Peter Foster
Peter Foster
@pmdfoster
The UK refusing to give full diplomatic status the EU's mission in London is baffling at at time when @BorisJohnson is trying to connect with @JoeBiden - because it recalls what Trump administration did to the EU ambassador back in 2019. Stay with

@JoeBiden The spat has been going for a while - we reported it in May, when the #Brexit trade talks were getting testy and - I assumed - it was the UK seeking a bit of leverage as the talks progressed. But we have a deal...and still no deal on the EU

@JoeBiden Essentially the UK government wants to treat the @EUdelegationUK as a "international organisation based in London" - and not accord it full diplomatic status, as almost every other country in the world does, including the United States /3

@JoeBiden @EUdelegationUK Indeed when EU formed it's External Action Service (EEAS) the UK supported the idea that EU representatives should be full ambassadors - a fact reflected in the Treaty of Lisbon which we signed - and which reflected on fact EU had a currency, made laws etc. /4

@JoeBiden @EUdelegationUK It took some time for everyone to recognise this, but after @BarackObama came to power in 2016 even the USA did the same....then along came Donald Trump and in 2019 surreptitiously downgraded the status of the EU ambassador @D0Sullivan /4
BREXIT

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