With 10 days to go, there are three main outcomes of the #Brexit talks:
1) no deal
2) the two sides are still talking but run out of time - qu if can find other ways to buy more time
3) a deal is reached which the UK ratifies & EU provisionally applies

In some ways, option one is the most simple

If the two sides walk away then we dont need to see the govt recalling UK parliament & the european parliament also doesn't need to vote
But no deal isnt a sustainable endstate - lots of reasons the UK will need to work with EU in the future

While I dont think UK will be straight back to the negotiating table - esp if PM unwilling to compromise in current circumstances - there will still be unresolved issues
Option two is probably the most challenging - where both sides think there is a deal to be done but the clock just runs out...

They may want to buy more time for talks but as @GeorginaEWright has pointed out, it is really much more complicated than that: https://t.co/a9r2vzVjQ6
Which means that for many, option 3 (a deal) is really the best outcome

Although @aliceolilly has pointed out recall has been complicated by covid rules: https://t.co/kPaA7vXT32

There is still - just about - enough time for the UK parliament to pass implementing legislation
If not, it is possible that the govt implements some aspects of the treaty through SI (eg tariff changes) and deals with the rest in the new year - would undermine usual convention but is possible

More on UK process here: https://t.co/bHExrSh8xb
The european parliament's sunday night deadline has passed - if a deal had been reached by the EP would have voted on it before the end of the year

But, although politically difficult, the Council can still chose to provisionally apply the treaty: https://t.co/MNnTkxnry4
While MEPs may be unhappy with this approach, the alternative would be a huge amount of disruption for EU individuals & businesses for a short period of time - a decision that could be difficult for MS to justify
But worth remembering that huge changes are coming deal or no deal (more from @Joe_Marshall0 here: https://t.co/FyooxnPWK1) & the later it gets, the more difficult it is for businesses to put the necessary prep in place

As we discussed two weeks ago: https://t.co/COcWhsEA7E
It feels pretty astonishing to be ten days from the end of the transition period with so much uncertainty about what rules will govern trade with our nearest neighbour

It is looking increasingly difficult for the govt to justify its decision not to extend the transition period
Given where we are, the PM urgently needs to decide whether a compromise with the EU is worth it to get a deal

And if he decides it isn't, rather than talking about the UK 'prospering mightily', he needs to honestly communicate the realities of a no deal Brexit

More from Brexit

Another head-banging day for the £112bn UK creative sector that is starting to ingest how difficult #Brexit is going to make their lives - and how little the government is really willing to do to fix the lack of a 'mobility' chapter in the EU-UK trade deal. Quick update.../1

First Equity @EquityUK put out a letter to @BorisJohnson warning that #brexit was a "towering hurdle" (you'd want Brian Blessed reading that part) to UK actors plying their trade in EU - a double whammy with #COVID19 /2

https://t.co/mXjTAISqZk


@BorisJohnson One third of Equity members say they've seen job ads asking for EU passport holders: "Before, we were able to travel to Europe visa-free. Now we have to pay hundreds of pounds, fill in form after form, and spend weeks waiting for approval" /3

@BorisJohnson Worth recalling that all this goes back to the UK desire NOT to have a 'mobility' provision within the TCA - all part of 'ending Free Movement' and the professional services folk - including musicians, actors, fashion models etc -are all victim of

@BorisJohnson What's the government going to do about all this? Good question, which brings us to todays @CommonsDCMS hearing in which the Culture Minister Caroline Dinenage @cj_dinenage frankly pin-balled around the issues /5

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THIS.

Russia hasn't been a willing partner in this treaty for almost 3 decades. We should have ended the pretense long ago.

Naturally, Rand Paul is telling anyone who will listen to him that Trump is making a HUGE MISTAKE here.


Rand is just like his dad, Ron. 100% isolationist.

They've never grasped that 100% isolationist is not 'America First' when you examine it. It really means 'America Alone'.

The consistent grousing of pursuing military alliances with allies - like Trump is doing now with Saudi Arabia.

So of course Rand has also spent the last 2 days loudly calling for Trump to kill the arms deal with Saudi Arabia and end our alliance with them.

What Obama was engineering with his foreign policy was de facto isolationism: pull all the troops out of the ME, abandon the region to Iranian control as a client state of Russia.

Obama wasn't building an alliance with Iran; he was facilitating abandoning the ME to Iran.

Obama wouldn't even leave behind a token security force, so of course what happened was the rise of ISIS. He also pumped billions of dollars into the Iranian coffers, which the Mullah's used to fund destabilizing activity [wars/terrorism] & criminal enterprises all over the globe
THIS.

Russia hasn't been a willing partner in this treaty for almost 3 decades. We should have ended the pretense long ago.

Naturally, Rand Paul is telling anyone who will listen to him that Trump is making a HUGE MISTAKE here.


Rand is just like his dad, Ron. 100% isolationist.

They've never grasped that 100% isolationist is not 'America First' when you examine it. It really means 'America Alone'.

The consistent grousing of pursuing military alliances with allies - like Trump is doing now with Saudi Arabia.

So of course Rand has also spent the last 2 days loudly calling for Trump to kill the arms deal with Saudi Arabia and end our alliance with them.

What Obama was engineering with his foreign policy was de facto isolationism: pull all the troops out of the ME, abandon the region to Iranian control as a client state of Russia.

Obama wasn't building an alliance with Iran; he was facilitating abandoning the ME to Iran.

Obama wouldn't even leave behind a token security force, so of course what happened was the rise of ISIS. He also pumped billions of dollars into the Iranian coffers, which the Mullah's used to fund destabilizing activity [wars/terrorism] & criminal enterprises all over the globe