On this, I think it’s highly unlikely to occur in the timeframe given. For several reasons, I don’t think it’s realistic for Scotland to secede, and then join the EU, in 9 years.
For that, thanks goes to Brexit.
A thread because why not...
Firstly, prior to the 2014 referendum, the Nationalists proposed a date of March 2016 to secede.
Secondly, today - the end completion of Brexit five-and-a-half years after Cameron’s majority in 2015.
It’s importance will be seen shortly.
Again, it’s importance will be clear shortly.
The Nationalists’ original plan for a secession vote to be achieved in 2 years is neither realistic, nor credible. If Brexit took 4.5 years, secession will take much longer.
Free uni tuition, for example, will most likely end to get the deficit under 3% of GDP.
Keeping the pound in any way would not be possible. At all.
With every EU MS since Maastricht either legally obliged, making preparations to, or already having joined the Euro, Scotland would not be able to avoid it. After all, it would agree to join.
This makes maintaining the CTA much more difficult. Especially if a secession agreement has a poison pill for the event a separate Scotland signs an agreement incomparable with the CTA - like joining the EU
Again, the EU have shown that undermining its constitutional order, which avoiding Schengen is, is not an option.
It is simply not credible to suggest the EU will undermine its constitutional order to appease the Nationalists.
In short, not 9 years.
Again, Brexit showed the polls were inaccurate, as well as a consistent shift away from supporting Brexit in the first place.
It’s one thing to tick a box saying ‘yes’ on YouGove. It’s another to go and vote for irreversibly dividing Great Britain.
The border was, and is, always visible.
A customs, regulatory, and eventually Schengen border would be erected where once there was none. Selling one will not be easy.
That is not the case now.
From the UK to EU in 9 years is not ambitious, it’s unrealistic and not credible.
More from Brexit
In fact a long running joke in our 'group' is that Brexit will be a roaring success, if we all just believe hard it will be a roaring success.
2. The last couple of weeks have made it clearer than ever that blind belief that is impervious to evidence and facts is not a leave/remain thing. It's a human thing
3. I was accused of lying and hounding a 'vulnerable' person off Twitter. When the victims of that 'vulnerable' got the same treatment, it became necessary to take action.
4. So I gathered evidence (not all, but enough) and wrote a blog with contributions from several others. Then the blog was checked by experts to ensure that it was neither libellous (to protect authors) or a risk to any possible legal action (to protect victims).
5. I naively thought that would put an end to the false accusations and trolling.
Since publishing I've been accused of having called the "vulnerable' person and threatened members of their family, forcing them to confess to the police
2/ According to sources present, Michel Barnier also warned the UK that a deal would not be approved by member states if it pressed ahead with passing the Internal Market and the Finance Bills into law.
3/ He told the European Parliament’s Brexit coordination committee this morning that US President Elect Joe Biden was also “sensitive” to any impact of UK law on the Good Friday Agreement.
4/ Mr Barnier told MEPs the talks were in the “endgame” and that there would have to be a decision on whether or not there was to be an agreement by Thursday.
5/ He said if there was no deal then the European Commission would be ready “to react immediately” with contingency plans, according to sources present.
Its Day 1 outside the #EU so we wanted to remind you of all the things Remainers told you would happen on #Brexit day.
Never in the history of political movements has one side fibbed so spectacularly and (at times) hilariously.
 How are you all feeling today...down there?🍆
Well please be careful because now we've left the EU we are all due waves of super gonorrehoea.
Wrapping yourself in the #EU flag and putting #FBPE in your bio is the only known
 Are you hungry? Well get used to it.
We were fed (excuse the pun) stories as late as November 2020 that #Brexit would lead to 60% reduction in haulage meaning 'months' of food shortages.
 Forget those foreign holidays unless you fancy swimming the Channel.
As late as October 2020 we were told that all flights would be grounded.
Both sides quietly agreed to contingencies in December. Quelle
 In March 2020 as COVID hit Europe, we were told the only way to obtain ventilators was by joining the #EU scheme. We refused and Remainers screeched that the Government was putting Brexit over breathing.
The EU scheme obtained...zero...ventilators.
1) no-one wanted to get out of the EU or the single market to protect ourselves better against a pandemic. See Brexit Tory controlled government policy 2016-2020 regarding the NHS and pandemic preparedness.
2) we could have, and, perhaps thanks to the need to genuflect to nationalists, or out of pragmatic needs, chosen to go our own way on procurement even within the EU.
3) none of this explains why it's good to be outside the single market, restricting our trade and making us poorer.
4) the implicit celebration of the vaccine nationalist cause, seemingly [but not actually] permitted by Brexit, ignores how this game plays out, namely:
... The way so many leading REMAINERS have since become LEAVERS or accepted PEERAGES (see the HOUSE OF LORDS, RUSSIA REPORT), the way David CAMERON quit, the way Nick CLEGG went from leading the LIB DEMS to working for FACEBOOK (WTF???), George OSBORNE working for Evgeny LEBEDEV.
... the lack of criticism of BREXIT on the BBC (see manipulation by omission, PROPAGANDA, DISINFORMATION and MISINFORMATION), the lack of EXPERTS on the BBC, the super-abundance of Nigel FARAGE on the BBC (see QUESTION TIME)...
... the daily PROPAGANDA from our TABLOID PRESS and traditionally BROADSHEET NEWSPAPER... the mainstreaming of DUMBING DOWN across all media and formats...
... setting up of short-lived but potentially important CROSS-PARTY COALITIONS...
You May Also Like
2/ Marketplace startups have done incredibly well over the first few decades of the internet, reinventing the way we shop for goods, but have been less successful services. It's bc services are complex, subjective, fragmented, and often in real life. Makes it hard
3/ There's been 4 major eras at making the service economy work online. The Listings Era, the unbundled Craiglist era, the Uber for X era, and the Managed Marketplace era
4/ Each era has added more value than the last, and utilized technology innovations, from internet to social / "read/write web" to mobile. The "Unbundling Craigslist" era was particularly epic at generating startup ideas
5/ The problem is, all the low-hanging fruit has been picked off. The techniques that got us to here won't get us to the next phase. So we have to do some pretty different things. That's why "Managed Marketplaces" have been a big deal - hire folks as W-2s, certify quality, etc.
• I have curated some of the best tweets from the best traders we know of.
• Making one master thread and will keep posting all my threads under this.
• Go through this for super learning/value totally free of cost! 😃
1. 7 FREE OPTION TRADING COURSES FOR
A THREAD:— Aditya Todmal (@AdityaTodmal) November 28, 2020
7 FREE OPTION TRADING COURSES FOR BEGINNERS.
Been getting lot of dm's from people telling me they want to learn option trading and need some recommendations.
Here I'm listing the resources every beginner should go through to shorten their learning curve.
2. THE ABSOLUTE BEST 15 SCANNERS EXPERTS ARE USING
Got these scanners from the following accounts:
3. 12 TRADING SETUPS which experts are using.
These setups I found from the following 4 accounts:
4. Curated tweets on HOW TO SELL STRADDLES.
Everything covered in this thread.
2. How to initiate
3. When to exit straddles
5. Videos on
Curated tweets on How to Sell Straddles— Aditya Todmal (@AdityaTodmal) February 21, 2021
Everything covered in this thread.
2. How to initiate
3. When to exit straddles
5. Videos on Straddles
Share if you find this knowledgeable for the benefit of others.
18 Things I Would Do At 18:
I was a dumb 18-year-old. I thought I had the world figured out. I didn't.
I stayed up till the wee hours. Drank every liquor invented.
Partied non-stop. Woke up after noon.
Surfed the web aimlessly.
Read BS self-help.
If I could do it all over again, here's 18 things I would do...
PHASE ONE: GET MY MIND RIGHT
ACTION #1: Break the chains - I wish I made the decision earlier. I didn't. I was scared. Anxious. Nervous. I knew once I made the decision, there was no going back.
Don't be like me.
Make the decision at 18. The decision to pave your own path in life. To go against the herd. To choose your own adventure. To commit to whatever sets your heart on fire.
ACTION #2: Cut off every negative person in your life.
Scroll through the contacts in your phone...
Notice how the names make you feel.
Delete any and all names that fill you with doubt and negativity.
ACTION #3: Condition your mind to embrace the producer mindset instead of the consumer mindset.
Consume 20% of the time. Produce 80% of the time.
ACTION #4: Set an intention to make $10k a month and write it out every MORNING and NIGHT as if you already achieved it (in the past tense).
Visualize yourself already having the money as you write.
Does it work?
PHASE TWO: EDUCATION
One of the 32 Narsimha Kshetram of Andhra. It has a unique form of Narsimha, appearing like a shivlingam
It is said that Narsimha’s fierce nature is soothed by worshipping him with Varaha, considered a peaceful deity
The shrine is believed to have been constructed by Prahlada. With time, it crumbled.
In Treta yuga, King Pururava was passing from here in his vimana. The vimana was attracted to this place by a mystic power.
When the place was unearthed, the deity was found.
Pururava’s wife, Urvashi, had a dream that the deity should remain covered in sandalwood paste for the whole year except on Akshaya Tritiya.
This practice has continued till date.
The mukhya mandap here, has a pillar kappam stambham believed to possess curative powers.
Chandanotsava/ Chandan Yatra is the most important festival celebrated on Akshaya Tritiya. The sandalwood paste is removed from the moolavar deity and nijarupa darshan (original form of deity) for twelve hours of the day are done by devotees.
Over the last months @mmkaradeniz and I made a new version. We launched it last night:
@accountanalysis doesn't use machine learning or AI „magic“. Instead of telling users if an account is authentic or not, it helps them to evaluate the accounts themselves.
It visualizes the different features (date, time, type, app, etc.) of Tweets to make them interpretable. /1
@accountanalysis The core concept is still the same, but it looks much better and is easier to operate. Not only for the users, but us developers as well. Enabling us to continuously roll out new features in the future.
Side-by-side screenshots of the old and new version. /2
@accountanalysis Some people had questions what different charts displayed and how they could be interpreted. There are now explanations for all charts, that can be toggled on and off at any time. /3
@accountanalysis The selected/retrieved Tweet count moved to the top to make it clear that not all Tweets of an account are analyzed. 3200 is the API limit by Twitter. It's possible to get more through the Premium API, but I don't think people would pay $100+ for the analysis of one account. /4