1/ A challenge in parsing Brexit news is that businesses ar…

2/ To put those another way:

"If you knew everything you needed to know and did everything right, is your existing business and delivery model still viable and competitive?"

The answer to that question determines if for you the problem is Brexit, or how Brexit was delivered.

3/ Some of the challenges at borders could have been prevented while still having the exact same model of Brexit (No Single Market, No Customs Union, but an FTA).

That they're appearing is an implementation failure and you can fully support Brexit but still be pissed about them.

4/ Examples include:

1) Government guidance and IT systems being ready earlier and/or easier to navigate;

2) More support for businesses, and more affordable bespoke help;

3) More time to prepare and better government communication about what preparation actually requires.

5/ This thread you've all seen from Daniel Lambert the wine merchant (primarily) deals with problems in this category.

There's no policy reason he can't export his product, but the procedures are a nightmare to navigate and he's badly under-supported.

https://t.co/LoHYR31LtA

Over the past 15 days I have not only been running my company as normal but I have been faced with largest threat to its future since it began in 1992. This is #Brexit & here is my thread on just how bad things are getting. 1/26
— Daniel Lambert (Wines). \U0001f1ea\U0001f1fa\U0001f1eb\U0001f1f7\U0001f3f4\U000e0067\U000e0062\U000e0077\U000e006c\U000e0073\U000e007f\U0001f347\U0001f942 (@DanielLambert29) January 16, 2021

5/ The Scottish fishers on the other hand, may be up against a policy wall that no amount of improved implementation or preparation can scale.

It is simply very difficult to consistently get fresh seafood across a goods border as quickly as required.

6/ Now to be sure, there are implementation challenges here as well.

This thread by a cold chain expert lays out some of the preparation shortfalls. But even if every truck had every form correct, and a good French agent, there'd be no guarantees.

https://t.co/peM3bjNd0G

A live example of the issues on why businesses are not better prepared for post-Brexit red tape - thread

Over past few days I have been really annoyed with myself that I did not foresee and warn #coldchain members about key processes on food (SPS) exports that have come to fore pic.twitter.com/oBJYCJHoIc
— Shane Brennan (@ColdChainShane) January 14, 2021

7/ Overlaying both these challenge types is the question of ongoing competitiveness.

Navigating the new bureaucracy costs money, and while some of that is a one time learning cost, most isn't.

Having a supplier that must navigate bureaucracy also adds risk.

8/ Competitiveness loss is permanent and a consequence of a policy decision (hard Brexit), not an implementation failure.

UK Gov hopes to mitigate that competitiveness loss by tweaking its domestic regulatory settings to enable improved productivity.

Not clear how yet.

9/ In coming months, we're going to learn more about which business models rode the wave well, which were let down by implementation, which by policy, and which by both.

In the meantime, separating what hard Brexit is inherently from how it was delivered will remain difficult.

10/ P.S: The reason this question should not be academic to those of you who support eventual readmission of the UK into the EU (or at least SM/CU) is that if you get it wrong, and focus on issues resulting from implementation, your argument will disappear once they are resolved.

1/ A challenge in parsing Brexit news is that businesses are facing overlapping types of challenges that can be difficult to separate.

The key questions are:
1⃣ Given the model of Brexit chosen, could this have been prevented, and by whom?
2⃣ Can it get better?

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1/ A challenge in parsing Brexit news is that businesses are facing overlapping types of challenges that can be difficult to separate. The key questions are:1⃣ Given the model of Brexit chosen, could this have been prevented, and by whom? 2⃣ Can it get better?

More from Brexit

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1/ A challenge in parsing Brexit news is that businesses are facing overlapping types of challenges that can be difficult to separate.

The key questions are:
1⃣ Given the model of Brexit chosen, could this have been prevented, and by whom?
2⃣ Can it get better?