1/ A challenge in parsing Brexit news is that businesses are facing overlapping types of challenges that can be difficult to separate.

The key questions are:
1⃣ Given the model of Brexit chosen, could this have been prevented, and by whom?
2⃣ Can it get better?

2/ To put those another way:

"If you knew everything you needed to know and did everything right, is your existing business and delivery model still viable and competitive?"

The answer to that question determines if for you the problem is Brexit, or how Brexit was delivered.
3/ Some of the challenges at borders could have been prevented while still having the exact same model of Brexit (No Single Market, No Customs Union, but an FTA).

That they're appearing is an implementation failure and you can fully support Brexit but still be pissed about them.
4/ Examples include:

1) Government guidance and IT systems being ready earlier and/or easier to navigate;

2) More support for businesses, and more affordable bespoke help;

3) More time to prepare and better government communication about what preparation actually requires.
5/ This thread you've all seen from Daniel Lambert the wine merchant (primarily) deals with problems in this category.

There's no policy reason he can't export his product, but the procedures are a nightmare to navigate and he's badly under-supported.

https://t.co/LoHYR31LtA
5/ The Scottish fishers on the other hand, may be up against a policy wall that no amount of improved implementation or preparation can scale.

It is simply very difficult to consistently get fresh seafood across a goods border as quickly as required.
6/ Now to be sure, there are implementation challenges here as well.

This thread by a cold chain expert lays out some of the preparation shortfalls. But even if every truck had every form correct, and a good French agent, there'd be no guarantees.

https://t.co/peM3bjNd0G
7/ Overlaying both these challenge types is the question of ongoing competitiveness.

Navigating the new bureaucracy costs money, and while some of that is a one time learning cost, most isn't.

Having a supplier that must navigate bureaucracy also adds risk.
8/ Competitiveness loss is permanent and a consequence of a policy decision (hard Brexit), not an implementation failure.

UK Gov hopes to mitigate that competitiveness loss by tweaking its domestic regulatory settings to enable improved productivity.

Not clear how yet.
9/ In coming months, we're going to learn more about which business models rode the wave well, which were let down by implementation, which by policy, and which by both.

In the meantime, separating what hard Brexit is inherently from how it was delivered will remain difficult.
10/ P.S: The reason this question should not be academic to those of you who support eventual readmission of the UK into the EU (or at least SM/CU) is that if you get it wrong, and focus on issues resulting from implementation, your argument will disappear once they are resolved.

More from Brexit

1. #Belfast #IrishSeaBorder There is no doubt that Brexit & the accompanying Irish Sea Border has destabilised the Union. Whilst the constitutional status of Northern Ireland has not changed, the fact of N.I remaining in the single market of the EU confirms it is”a place apart”.

2. Belfast Steve Aitkin/UUP, Mervyn Gibson/OrangeOrder,Jim Allister/TUV, Jamie Bryson/Unionist Blogger, etc etc, all see the Irish Sea Border & different economic arrangements for NI apart from Britain as a “betrayal”. It comes in a long line of Tory”betrayals”.

3. #Belfast They are correct. The Irish Sea Border & EU single market moves N.Ireland closer to the Republic of Ireland in terms of economic
https://t.co/tdKZhjKhWu,it doesn’t change the constitutional status of NI but it is a huge psychological blow to a Unionism.

4. #Belfast The DUP utterly failed to “strengthen the Union”. Their attempt to hold the minority Tory Theresa May govt to ransom backfired spectacularly when Boris Johnson won a significant majority. Their arrogance led them to be isolated & resented in Westminster.

5. #Belfast How does Unionism now react to this?Retreat to the”Bunker”?Repeat the ineffective “Flag”street activism of the past? The Union can now only be saved imo by reaching out to the 5-10% swing vote that will decide a future Border Poll on Irish unification,& it is coming.

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A THREAD ON @SarangSood

Decoded his way of analysis/logics for everyone to easily understand.

Have covered:
1. Analysis of volatility, how to foresee/signs.
2. Workbook
3. When to sell options
4. Diff category of days
5. How movement of option prices tell us what will happen

1. Keeps following volatility super closely.

Makes 7-8 different strategies to give him a sense of what's going on.

Whichever gives highest profit he trades in.


2. Theta falls when market moves.
Falls where market is headed towards not on our original position.


3. If you're an options seller then sell only when volatility is dropping, there is a high probability of you making the right trade and getting profit as a result

He believes in a market operator, if market mover sells volatility Sarang Sir joins him.


4. Theta decay vs Fall in vega

Sell when Vega is falling rather than for theta decay. You won't be trapped and higher probability of making profit.