BC BREXIT
Saved by @jay_millerjay

So many stories of new barriers to trade between UK and EU, but you might be thinking at some point these will run out. The government is certainly hoping so. Well they may slow down, but trade relations and regulations are not static, and changes will lead to further problems.

 The likelihood of continued trade problems for a £650 bn trade relationship is why there should be a huge cross-government effort led by the Foreign Office and Department for International Trade to put in place the necessary resources to seek best results.

There isn't.
So the UK's relationship with the EU currently consists of two not particularly good deals and no consistent effort to manage current problems or prevent future ones. Joint committees are a second order problem to putting in place the right internal structures.
But that's been the consistent UK problem in relations with the EU since 2016. Lack of focus on getting the right internal structures, people, asks, strategy, too much attention on being tough and a single leader.
News just in. This doesn't necessarily mean the right structure being put into UK-EU relations. I suspect Frost's main role is to ensure no renegotiations with the EU.

Also, wonder what this says about the PM's trust in Michael Gove? https://t.co/7VOJTATToP
In fact Frost takes over Gove's role in EU relations. Buckle up, I suspect this means turbulence ahead. Frost appears much more hardline in thinking than Gove, though end result of UK climbdown has typically been the same. https://t.co/5PUvsAQcgu
This tallies with my instinct. In particular I think Frost had a hand in the rather strong Northern Ireland letter sent by Gove, was probably not happy Gove then backed down completely over the content... https://t.co/kDiLc45wtJ
I am far from clear that today means Lord Frost will now be Cabinet lead for the whole EU relationship, as in managing all the day to day issues. Still much to be worked out I suspect. https://t.co/yCK7sTBaki
Also just considering the possibility that Michael Gove might want David Frost to own all the consequences of his Brexit deal, and the compromises that will be required. But surely such thinking is too cynical?
Personalities aside I agree with this. Negotiating and operating a deal are not the same job, and it makes a lot of sense to hand over. But the politics I suspect do not allow. https://t.co/2FtXpxQyVW
This is important on UK-EU relations. Problems including:

1/ Northern Ireland protocol
2/ Existing business lost / compensation
3/ Financial services equivalence
4/ Large business asking for stronger EU ties
5/ Potential new EU restrictions

https://t.co/9RBUDEktXE
What if we shout loudly, slowly and (I'm sure this is important) in English? https://t.co/TLdSCWBV6N
Not feeling particularly reassured. "What the new Minister meant to say was that his first priority was the country and he thinks he may best of service continuing with EU relations..."

Nah. My ball, give it back... https://t.co/kMM1Rtt3Sr
The deals, both the Withdrawal Agreement and Trade and Cooperation Agreement, are poor from a UK point of view. So poor the PM can't honestly admit their content. Politically they look safe from Labour, but internal tensions grow (musicians, farmers etc). Watch that...

More from David Henig

David Henig
David Henig
@DavidHenigUK
As is traditional for this time of year, and more in hope than expectation, my top ten trade / Brexit hopes for 2021...

1 - The UK Government ditches the unnecessary secrecy and engages much more openly with business, NGOs etc about their priorities, and reflects them

2 - Parliament steps up its game on government scrutiny beyond select committee reports and starts expecting answers on why priorities have been chosen, why trade agreements with which countries, what the content should be etc

3 - UK business do their best to keep on exporting and importing, innovating and partnering, to overcome the new barriers in their way, and also to keep shouting for government to remove barriers as they arise

4 - Brexiteers show even the vaguest hint of interest in the views of those who continue to want strong ties with the EU, rather then repeating over and over again, to even the vaguest hint of criticism, "you lost suckers, get over it"

5 - Remainers, rejoiners and the like stop talking quite so much about how the 2016 referendum was stolen from them, which is becoming both history and suggests that 17 odd million people were conned

(NB not confident on the last two)
BREXIT
David Henig
David Henig
@DavidHenigUK
Plenty of talk this morning about how UK sovereignty is what is stopping an EU deal, that the EU want to impinge on this.

Sorry, the argument is totally bogus. It is a combination of EU hatred and cakeism dressed up in respectable clothing. 1/ n

How do we define sovereignty in trade deals? Complex question, so let's just look at this government. It believes in trade deals and membership of the WTO. These contain binding rules. Therefore for this government sovereignty and binding rules are compatible. 2/

Therefore sovereignty in terms of trade rules for this government is a relative concept either in content or partner terms. So when they say the EU proposals go too far is that because of what is proposed, or who it is proposed with? 3/

We haven't been told the detail. But with regard to the level playing field it is suggested that no country could sign up to a situation where not following the rules leads to tariffs being imposed. However we agree to this in the WTO and FTAs. So that is untrue. 4/

Fish is a slightly different matter, and it is being said that the EU proposal would deny the UK control of our waters. But definitionally that can't be true. We're showing our control through the discussion. We don't have to do a deal. 5/
UK & EU
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David Henig
David Henig
@DavidHenigUK
Breathless accounts of brilliant negotiating are oddly unaccompanied by statements of UK wins.

Twice the PM has signed up to deals he previously said no PM could sign up for. The level of self-deception in turning these into triumphs is off the scale.

A wise man has suggested that Johnson's self delusions are good for the UK in the way he folds under EU pressure but denies it - that this actually delivers the best result.

But it doesn't do much for the country's politcal debate to have such delusions at the heart of the most important economic relationship. And they don't have such delusions in Belfast.

Perhaps it is the way of UK politics that no leader can be seen to be pro-EU, that the UK must be seen to be bigger than the EU, even though the UK is obviously smaller and needs the EU for trade.
BREXIT
David Henig
David Henig
@DavidHenigUK
The first working day of the new UK-EU relationship. We're going to hear a lot this year from all sides (remain and Brexit in UK, EU, etc) using any possible scrap of evidence. But what we need to look for is trends, over time, so a few to think about in this thread... 1/

Obvious disruption or reduction to UK-EU trade flow. Here we may be thinking e.g. of a permanent 10% fall in traffic, or regular queues, or indeed no change. And apart from goods, the same with individual travel, for work, residence etc... 2/

As a reminder we're not expecting permanent scenes like those of the week before Christmas when borders were closed. But 5-10% reductions in UK-EU traffic would not seem to be out of line with economic forecasts of a hit to the UK economy. 3/

Then we'll need to look at whether UK-EU trade is being substituted by UK-non EU trade. This probably should happen to a degree, and in theory efficiencies could come this way. But its also possible that all UK trade falls, with the UK no longer an EU entry point. 4/

Inward investment is another key post-Brexit indicator. There isn't a single obvious data set here, but the impression of the last four years has been a fall off in manufacturing, but not in services, particularly tech. Continuation would suggest economy tilting to services. 5/
BREXIT
David Henig
David Henig
@DavidHenigUK
Small business in particular struggling with new Brexit red tape. Entirely predictable, and a function of a world trade system distorted against smaller traders. Stay with me a short while as Brexit threadmeister and story author @pmdfoster may say... 1/

The nub of the issue is the extra costs for most exports, whether this is paperwork or meeting different regulatory requirements. A fixed cost per exported load inevitably adds a higher percentage cost to small than larger business... and they may lack expertise. 2/


You'll note that in the EU, with virtually no paperwork or differing regulations, the costs of exports are similar for smaller and large companies - though even there there is a big company bias, because who can afford to lobby for friendly regulations? 3/

The same unfortunately typically applies to trade deals. If you are Nissan and threaten to leave the country without the right deal you have more clout than a small cheesemaker. As we see. But is it just the EU that is over-bureaucratic? Sadly not... 4/


One of the best UK business groups on trade policy @BritAmBusiness (and yes you can quote me @EmanueAdam) has a new report out on a UK-US trade deal and SMEs. It shows opportunities. But unfortunately problems unlikely to be solved. 5/
BREXIT

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Tony Connelly
Tony Connelly
@tconnellyRTE
Ireland's foreign min @SimonCoveney says there will be no breakthru at the #euco this wk, that EU fishermen will not be "sold out" in order to secure a future relationship deal, and that if there is a deal it will not be ratified unless the UK "remove" Internal Mkt Bill clauses

2/ Speaking at the General Affairs Council Mr Coveney said: “We value fishermen, we value their contribution across the EU and cerainly EU fishermen are not going to be sold out in an effort to get an agreement on a future relationship with the UK on trade.”

3/ He said that while there had been some progress on the level playing field area, there had been “little or no” movement on fisheries. Both sides, he said, had legitimate concerns on the issue.

4/ Mr Coveney had bilateral meetings with both @MichelBarnier and @MarosSefcovic

5/ “There was a very clear message that if we do manage to negotiate a deal on a future relationship agreement that involves many different areas, before that deal can be ratified or finalised, the domestic legislation that the UK has introduced...
BREXIT
Antonello Guerrera
Antonello Guerrera
@antoguerrera
EXCLUSIVE. "We want a Brexit deal with the UK. But the EU is ready for No Deal"

I interviewed Joao @ValedeAlmeidaEU, EU’s first ambassador to the UK. He expressed many interesting comments on the ongoing #Brexit negotiations

THREAD with some

1. Ambassador Vale de Almeida:

the aim is a "fruitful, ambitious, forward-looking relationship between the EU and the UK after Brexit". BUT "it is very important to make sure that the Withdrawal Agreement is fully and completely implemented".

#Brexit

2. Then he said:

Another challenge is "to engage with the British authorities, [...] Whitehall, No10, FCDO and beyond, but also with the DEVOLVED UK nations. This country is a union. It's not only the government in London, BUT ALSO the governments in the 3 devolved nations".

3. But we'll talk later about this.

Then the Ambassador said that #Brexit "is a moment of sadness because we're losing one member of the family, but also we [the EU] need to reflect, draw lessons from it" and "to be humble as well about Europe and the project itself".

4. Which lessons?

Amb: "We [EU] need to connect better with people, understand better what are people's concerns, accept that there are national situations that need to be given full attention. We need to be humble and question ourselves: "Are we doing the right thing"

#Brexit
BREXIT
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BtaD #FBPE
BtaD #FBPE
@BtaD42255016
@SpecCoffeeHouse @NicholasTyrone I think you have missed the essential point that we have now passed peak Brexit. From now on only the disastrous reality will come at us from all sides. 57% already were Remainers on the day we joined. Soon a huge majority will hate Brexit. I expect poll tax riots response level

@NicholasTyrone Already the biggest vote winner, fish , has turned out to be a disaster. We’ve ended up with a FTA smaller than the UK itself. Gibraltar joined Schengen, Falklands shafted. UK regions never wanted It. #BrexitReality . #Brexitbenefits , there are none. #Brexitears from now on

@NicholasTyrone Remember too, this was a Tory internal civil war foisted on an uninterested country that they only won because of the #Austeridiocy policy falsely foisted after the financial crash. It was a protest vote. There are no benefits to Brexit. It’s a #ToryBrexitShambles .

@NicholasTyrone There will only be one direction of travel now, back towards the EU. We are currently effectively a vassal state and #Whatsovereignty ? We have only lost it. We have also become a sprat in a puddle not the leading big fish in the big bloc, the EU. This was always a fishy affair

@NicholasTyrone Oh yes. We’re also one of the biggest jokes on the planet, and will take centre stage as the worlds biggest Buffoon departs.... #Brexitisntworking #brexitleavesbritainnaked
BREXIT
David Henig
David Henig
@DavidHenigUK
Today's UK-EU trade deal reflection - what is rarely stated in discussions about the deal's shortcomings is that they reflect UK government policy choices - in particular that control of immigration and a US trade deal are a higher priority than an EU deal.

Thus, why was it not a UK government priority to secure for UK musicians the rights to tour the EU? Because that would probably have required a reciprocal right to be given to those in the EU, which we didn't want to give. Choice.

Meanwhile why did the UK government not seek or secure a reduction in food inspections for GB products going to the EU? Because that would probably have required fixing food regulations in a way that might have been an obstacle to a US trade deal.

Works the other way as well. Why did the EU refuse UK requests on mutual recognition of industrial testing? In part at least because of UK lack of commitment on maintaining the previous EU system of standards and conformity assessment which might be a problem in a US deal.

One of the strangest opinions in the London politics bubble is that the UK government isn't that bothered about a US trade deal, as it so obviously goes against the evidence. There might be domestic opposition, but this was to be Brexit Dividend Number 1.
BREXIT
Dr Matt Prescott
Dr Matt Prescott
@mattprescott
As someone whose been researching BREXT, TRUMP + RUSSIA for a couple of years, it's pretty amazing to see the media suddenly starting to ring alarm bells - after yesterday's FASCIST COUP attempt! Too many have been positively incurious or complicit with boosting TRUMP + BREXIT.

The number of JOURNALISTS and CITIZEN RESEARCHERS who have been trying to investigate the links between TRUMP, BREXIT and RUSSIA is remarkably small, and so tiny that we have all more or less found each other on Twitter... I think this is shameful.

Below I will try to credit some of the people who have made important contributions and tried to explore different aspects of this terrifying, sophisticated and wide-ranging attack on democracy... Some won't want public acknowledgement because of the associated attacks + dangers.

Carole CADWALLADR : @carolecadwalla : has done more than anyone else to highlight the role of social media, data mining and profiling in attacking DEMOCRACY. Her warnings and scoops have been studiously ignored by many in power.

... a library of Carole's articles can be found here :
BREXIT

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