As the transition period ends, the #BrexitDeal applies from tomorrow. But there's also a parallel significant legal change - most of the rest of the withdrawal agreement starts to apply. A thread on the legal issues in the rest of that agreement.

The citizens' rights provisions of the withdrawal agreement (on EU citizens who moved to the UK, and UK citizens who moved to the EU, before the end of the transition period) start to apply.

Annotation and detailed analysis of those provisions here: https://t.co/WLG4axw7qH
After today, UK citizens newly moving to the EU, or EU citizens newly moving to the UK, are in principle governed by national law (partly harmonised by the EU, on the EU side).

However, the #BrexitDeal contains some provisions on visas for service providers.
The #BrexitDeal also refers to the matching unilateral decisions of the EU and UK to waive a visa requirement for short tourist visits. Analysis of the EU law on that issue here: https://t.co/HNdlpnlIq6
UK citizens resident in the EU on the basis of the withdrawal agreement (or who move to EU in future) should be covered by the EU law on long-term resident non-EU citizens, which provides for a limited form of mobility between Member States. Analysis here: https://t.co/zngoZWBOCg
Next, a big chunk of the treaty on 'separation provisions' - ie what happens to pending European Arrest Warrants - starts to apply. For a number of issues (for instance, trade in goods and extradition) the #BrexitDeal will start to apply to any new transactions, requests etc.
The financial contributions part of the withdrawal agreement - which already applied during the transition period (ie the UK has already made a chunk of the contributions it provides for) - continues to apply as regards remaining contributions.
What if the EU and UK argue about this agreement? In place of the full jurisdiction of the CJEU, the arbitration rules in the withdrawal agreement start to apply. Some limited jurisdiction of the CJEU continues.

Analysis of dispute settlement issues here: https://t.co/D5lRc0w7mQ
There are broader questions about breach and termination of the agreement, which I discussed here - https://t.co/AkaMdIpbow

Note that issues of breach and termination are quite different in the #BrexitDeal, but they are separate treaties, ie ending the latter doesn't end the WA.
But for both the withdrawal agreement and the 'Brexit deal' there's a common misunderstanding that breaching the treaty automatically leads to its termination. That's incorrect as regards both treaties (and as regards international treaties in general).
Finally, the withdrawal agreement protocols. The protocol on Cypriot bases starts to apply; the protocol on Gibraltar mostly ends (we'll see if anything is agreed to replace it).

The NI protocol mostly starts: remember it's been supplemented by implementing measures this month.
My overview of the whole withdrawal agreement here: https://t.co/AzdiMxuNzj

And of the transition period here: https://t.co/Zj3UsmSIsp

More on the #BrexitDeal soon... //

More from Brexit

On this, I think it’s highly unlikely to occur in the timeframe given. For several reasons, I don’t think it’s realistic for Scotland to secede, and then join the EU, in 9 years.

For that, thanks goes to Brexit.

A thread because why not...


Two important dates: March 2016 and January 1st 2021.

Firstly, prior to the 2014 referendum, the Nationalists proposed a date of March 2016 to secede.

Secondly, today - the end completion of Brexit five-and-a-half years after Cameron’s majority in 2015.

Brexit has demonstrated many things, primarily that splitting unions is not easy. The UKs membership of the EU was 47 years and by the end it was not at the heart of the EU. The Union has existed for over 300 as a unitary state.

Dividing a unitary state, like the UK, will not be easy. Frankly, it will make Brexit look simple. Questions of debt, currency, defence, and more will need to be resolved ... something not addressed with Brexit.

Starting with debt. Scotland will end up with its proportionate share of the UKs national debt. It’s not credible to suggest otherwise. Negotiating what is proportionate won’t be easy when both sides disagree.

It’s importance will be seen shortly.
A quote from this excellent piece, neatly summarising a core impact of Brexit.

The Commission’s view, according to several sources, is that Brexit means existing distribution networks and supply chains are now defunct and will have to be replaced by other systems.


Of course, this was never written on the side of a bus. And never acknowledged by government. Everything was meant to be broadly fine apart from the inevitable teething problems.

It was, however, visible from space to balanced observers. You did not have to be a trade specialist to understand that replacing the Single Market with a third country trade arrangement meant the end of many if not all of the complex arrangements optimised for the former.

In the absence of substantive mitigations, the Brexit winners are those who subscribe to some woolly notion of ‘sovereignty’ and those who did not like freedom of movement. The losers are everyone else.

But, of course, that’s not good enough. For understandable reasons Brexit was sold as a benefit not a cost. The trading benefits of freedom would far outweigh the costs. Divergence would benefit all.

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Still wondering about this 🤔


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