BC BREXIT
Saved by @Mollyycolllinss

Small business in particular struggling with new Brexit red tape. Entirely predictable, and a function of a world trade system distorted against smaller traders. Stay with me a short while as Brexit threadmeister and story author @pmdfoster may say... 1/

 The nub of the issue is the extra costs for most exports, whether this is paperwork or meeting different regulatory requirements. A fixed cost per exported load inevitably adds a higher percentage cost to small than larger business... and they may lack expertise. 2/
You'll note that in the EU, with virtually no paperwork or differing regulations, the costs of exports are similar for smaller and large companies - though even there there is a big company bias, because who can afford to lobby for friendly regulations? 3/
The same unfortunately typically applies to trade deals. If you are Nissan and threaten to leave the country without the right deal you have more clout than a small cheesemaker. As we see. But is it just the EU that is over-bureaucratic? Sadly not... 4/
One of the best UK business groups on trade policy @BritAmBusiness (and yes you can quote me @EmanueAdam) has a new report out on a UK-US trade deal and SMEs. It shows opportunities. But unfortunately problems unlikely to be solved. 5/ https://t.co/PhOzGv6IZV
The US regulatory system is just as prescriptive and difficult as the EU one, as suggested in this clip from the BAB report. And no trade deal the US has ever done has helped this, because USTR guard the independence of regulators fiercely. Hopes to change this in TTIP failed. 6/
So what of dedicated SME chapters in trade agreements, pioneered by the EU and enthusiastically adopted by the UK (here clipped from foreword to the BAB report by @GregHands)? Well, you'd rather have them than not. But their focus looks rather limited. 7/
I recall discussing limitations of a proposed trade agreement SME chapter with the EU Commission in 2015. That information is nice, but to make a difference you need to tilt the balance towards SMEs, for example implementing a dedicated small business issue resolution service. 8/
Suffice to say we still haven't really seen a good trade agreement SME chapter from EU or UK. Some SMEs trade well, in services with fewer clear barriers, niche high value goods, or as part of multinational supply chains. But too many struggle. 9/
But finishing with Brexit, once again we have to face new long term trading realities, that small business will be particularly disadvantaged by the end of seamless trade. Government could choose to do more to help, but so far SMEs are not their priority. 10 / end

More from David Henig

David Henig
David Henig
@DavidHenigUK
This potential benefit list from CPTPP is not the longest and is still misleading. Those Malaysian whisky tariffs - emilimated over 15 years (if they don't seek any specific exemption for UK). Those rules of origin benefits? Only apply to import / export to CPTPP countries. https://t.co/9TbheOVhsR


Here's my more realistic take on CPTPP. Economic gains limited, but politically in terms of trade this makes some sort of sense, these are likely allies. DIT doesn't say this, presumably the idea of Australia or Canada as our equal upsets them.


As previously noted agriculture interests in Australia and New Zealand expect us to reach generous agreements in WTO talks and bilaterals before acceding to CPTPP. So this isn't a definite. Oh and Australia wants to know if we'll allow hormone treated beef

Ultimately trade deals are political, and the UK really wants CPTPP as part of the pivot to indo-pacific, and some adherents also hope it forces us to change food laws without having to do it in a US deal (isn't certain if this is the case or not).

If we can accede to CPTPP without having to make changes to domestic laws it is fine. Just shouldn't be our priority, as it does little for services, is geographically remote, and hardly cutting edge on issues like climate change or animal welfare.
SOCIETY
David Henig
David Henig
@DavidHenigUK
The first working day of the new UK-EU relationship. We're going to hear a lot this year from all sides (remain and Brexit in UK, EU, etc) using any possible scrap of evidence. But what we need to look for is trends, over time, so a few to think about in this thread... 1/

Obvious disruption or reduction to UK-EU trade flow. Here we may be thinking e.g. of a permanent 10% fall in traffic, or regular queues, or indeed no change. And apart from goods, the same with individual travel, for work, residence etc... 2/

As a reminder we're not expecting permanent scenes like those of the week before Christmas when borders were closed. But 5-10% reductions in UK-EU traffic would not seem to be out of line with economic forecasts of a hit to the UK economy. 3/

Then we'll need to look at whether UK-EU trade is being substituted by UK-non EU trade. This probably should happen to a degree, and in theory efficiencies could come this way. But its also possible that all UK trade falls, with the UK no longer an EU entry point. 4/

Inward investment is another key post-Brexit indicator. There isn't a single obvious data set here, but the impression of the last four years has been a fall off in manufacturing, but not in services, particularly tech. Continuation would suggest economy tilting to services. 5/
BREXIT
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David Henig
David Henig
@DavidHenigUK
Breathless accounts of brilliant negotiating are oddly unaccompanied by statements of UK wins.

Twice the PM has signed up to deals he previously said no PM could sign up for. The level of self-deception in turning these into triumphs is off the scale.

A wise man has suggested that Johnson's self delusions are good for the UK in the way he folds under EU pressure but denies it - that this actually delivers the best result.

But it doesn't do much for the country's politcal debate to have such delusions at the heart of the most important economic relationship. And they don't have such delusions in Belfast.

Perhaps it is the way of UK politics that no leader can be seen to be pro-EU, that the UK must be seen to be bigger than the EU, even though the UK is obviously smaller and needs the EU for trade.
BREXIT
David Henig
David Henig
@DavidHenigUK
Delusional. And no way to run a country. Far higher barriers to trade with the EU from Friday. And still subject to EU influence on our laws. To deny this is also to deny the ability to tackle the problems we will face.

We ended up with particularly high level playing field conditions in the EU deal because the UK didn't take the subject seriously. We got a worse deal on fish than anyone thought possible, and got nothing in return. All because of cakeism. Or patriotism as they call it.

Now we face higher trade barriers to our nearest market, which means our businesses need to be even more competitive to overcome them and succeed. Is that acknowledged?

Our neighbours, the EU, use all manner of pressures to keep neighbours in line in terms of trade. That financial services equivalence, pity if you didn't get that. Data equivalence, have 6 months free if you don't change your laws while we make you sweat...

Northern Ireland, as we repeat endlessly, Johnson cakeism of no checks? Somehow no longer mentioned after the EU got what they wanted. See also, fish, level playing field. EU priorities, EU won. Johnson cake, all gone, not eaten.
GOVERNMENT
David Henig
David Henig
@DavidHenigUK
How to make sense of the increasing number of UK-EU trade disruption stories?

In short - outside of a single market product checks and people working restrictions are inevitable. And outside a customs union you will have tariffs and / or rules of origin.

Detail ---> 1/

The UK decided to leave a Customs Union. Within that Customs Union, no tariffs, just a common external tariff or preferential rates for bilateral deals or developing countries. Hence, distribution hubs in one country for all make a lot of sense. 2/

Outside a Customs Union our choice was tariffs under WTO rules or remove them subject to rules of origin with a deal. We chose the latter, but it means we can't just import from China, rebadge, and get zero tariffs from the EU. As we could until December 31. 3/

Net result of being outside of the Customs Union - it no longer makes sense for the UK to be a distribution hub for the whole of Europe. Particularly when so many neighbouring countries remain in it. No trade deal changes that. 4/

Now, product checks, of the sort causing problems for food exporters (see Scottish seafood). In the single market, we shared regulations, so a safe product in the UK was safe in France. No inspections. We chose to leave that system, as we want to change some regulations. 5/
BREXIT

More from Brexit

Tony Connelly
Tony Connelly
@tconnellyRTE
New: the European Parliament's announcement that it will not ratify any treaty before the end of December unless the deal is concluded by midnight on Sunday comes amid signals that, despite progress, a deal won't be concluded until early next week.

2/ This is because there are still some formidable hurdles in the way of closure on the level playing field issue, and they haven't even got into fisheries in a big way yet. And both sides say things there are "extremely difficult".

3/ Yesterday there were some signals that a deal could be done by the weekend, but the mood seems to have dipped somewhat.

4/ The EP is saying it wants a "provisional" text from the European Commission "as soon as possible" - not clear if that means even before the midnight deadline

5/ If a deal is not concluded by Sunday night then we are in uncharted waters
BREXIT
Joe Mayes
Joe Mayes
@Joe_Mayes
It's been another torrid week at the border - inundated customs agents, goods stuck for days, companies buckling under the paperwork 1/ https://t.co/2A301guhB6 w/ @lizzzburden

Take Branimir Vuckovic, 45, who runs goods between the U.K. and EU. He spent this week stuck in Kent because he couldn't find a customs broker to do his Brexit paperwork. Even with traffic levels below normal, the system is being overwhelmed 2/


The government has admitted this problem itself. On a Q&A with businesses on Thursday, Heather Jones from the Border Delivery Group said: `We are starting to realize that customs agents’ capacity and capability is being extremely stretched' 3/ 🚨

Eddie Maybank, an independent customs broker, says he's been having a breakdown. He's forwarding inbound queries on to other agents in Dover, but they've told him to stop. `I’m inundated, and so is everyone else,' he said 4/

UK-Ireland trade has been badly affected, particularly food shipments. Stephen McAneney of Allied Fleet Services in NI said he saw consignments of potatoes, apples and cream being destroyed at ports because they lacked the right documents 5/
BREXIT
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Anand Menon
Anand Menon
@anandMenon1
IT’S HERE The new bumper @ukandeu report that tells you all you need to know – or at least all the questions you need to ask – about the UK after Brexit. https://t.co/S1lHP6TBJ1 1/27


A disclaimer. What follows is a selection of randomly selected highlights, nothing more nothing less. There’s far, far more in this report than I can possibly cover here. And the cricket got exciting so I ran out of steam. 2/27

It is made up of 70-odd pieces (I counted twice and came up with diff numbers) by an eye watering collection of eminent social scientists . Explaining the big issues from housing to dealing with China, from prospects for the economy to the prospects for the Labour Party 3/27


It’s intended as a guide to the key questions that will confront us over the years to come. Each contributor ponders,where we’ve come from, where we are now and where we’re headed. And because we’re really kind, we’ve divided things up into a number of sections. First: 4/ 27


And oh, my Lord do we have a stellar line up of people, including inter alia, @_Paul_Tobin_ @tcstvns @watsonjim2 @CharlieBEU @drsarah_hall @BD_Stew @AntovaIvanka @PRT1969 @IvanRajicUK @cartelsman
Download it, tell your boss your wifi has crashed, and have a read. 5/27
BREXIT
Tigger \U0001f3f4\U000e0067\U000e0062\U000e0065\U000e006e\U000e0067\U000e007f\U0001f1ea\U0001f1fa\U0001f1ec\U0001f1e7
Tigger 🏴󠁧󠁢󠁥󠁮󠁧󠁿🇪🇺🇬🇧...
@tiggerish_
I am in the market for positive, optimistic articles about Brexit - it may not be how I’m feeling but I’m sure I’ve missed things + want to avoid confirmation bias so I’m opening my mind, + this seemed like a good place to

Elliott argues that ‘the UK has deep, structural economic problems’ - true, but correlation is not causation: we look in vain for an argument that these problems are caused by EU membership and/or that membership is preventing them being tackled

The argument would be stronger if Elliott could show that other countries in the EU faced similar structural problems, but he doesn’t + I don’t think he could - the EU manages to incorporate a wide range of economic models, + regional inequalities vary hugely between EU countries

He does not attempt to acknowledge + explain the boom in inward investment in UK manufacturing in the last few decades, one of the few economic positives for ‘left behind areas’, though that may have been hard without referring to single market membership + European supply chains

‘Brexit means that those farmers who want their fruit harvested will now have to...pay higher wages or invest in new machinery.’ Maybe they will (but I’m not convinced) but this would have unintended consequences eg higher prices for healthy food
BREXIT
Chris Randone
Chris Randone
@ChrisRandone
Many bearish sentiments across the mortgage sector because they believe companies won't succeed as much when rate finally go back up (3 maybe 4 years from now). Which makes sense except for $GHIV and here's why. In 2016 Brexit came & rates went down which lead to huge success...

in mortgages. Business was great for many companies but then in ‘17 and ‘18, rates went up. What happened you might ask? A lot of people got compressed, margins got compressed, rates went down, & people struggled in the mortgage market...

Well UWM ( $GHIV ) compound annual growth rate, from ‘16 to ’18, was 28%. Companies that focused on refi struggled, so obviously a very successful company like Rocket or Quicken, they went down 14% in compound annual growth rate in those years...

$GHIV actually grew, and so did their profits, so the opportunity to continue to grow in all cycles is a big differentiator for UWM, and the broker channel versus a lot of our competitors. When rates rise, it's actually even better for $GHIV (UWM)..

If rates stay low, great UWM will continue to crush but when the rates rise, they will continue to steal even more market share because of how they operate in the mortgage sector. People also talk about the speed in closing a loan & that other competitors are faster...
BREXIT

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KrishnaLeela
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🌿𝑻𝒉𝒆 𝒔𝒕𝒐𝒓𝒚 𝒐𝒇 𝒂 𝑺𝒕𝒂𝒓 : 𝑫𝒉𝒓𝒖𝒗𝒂 & 𝑽𝒊𝒔𝒉𝒏𝒖

Once upon a time there was a Raja named Uttānapāda born of Svayambhuva Manu,1st man on earth.He had 2 beautiful wives - Suniti & Suruchi & two sons were born of them Dhruva & Uttama respectively.
#talesofkrishna https://t.co/E85MTPkF9W


Now Suniti was the daughter of a tribal chief while Suruchi was the daughter of a rich king. Hence Suruchi was always favored the most by Raja while Suniti was ignored. But while Suniti was gentle & kind hearted by nature Suruchi was venomous inside.
#KrishnaLeela


The story is of a time when ideally the eldest son of the king becomes the heir to the throne. Hence the sinhasan of the Raja belonged to Dhruva.This is why Suruchi who was the 2nd wife nourished poison in her heart for Dhruva as she knew her son will never get the throne.


One day when Dhruva was just 5 years old he went on to sit on his father's lap. Suruchi, the jealous queen, got enraged and shoved him away from Raja as she never wanted Raja to shower Dhruva with his fatherly affection.


Dhruva protested questioning his step mother "why can't i sit on my own father's lap?" A furious Suruchi berated him saying "only God can allow him that privilege. Go ask him"
RELIGION
Conviction | Patience
Conviction | Patience
@unseenvalue
H was always unseen in S2NL :)

Those who exited at 1500 needed money. They can always come back near 969. Those who exited at 230 also needed money. They can come back near 95.

Those who sold L @ 660 can always come back at 360. Those who sold S last week can be back @ 301
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ArmaniTalks 🎙🔥...
@ArmaniTalks
Make them irrelevant > Hold a grudge

Holding a grudge is the easy thing to do.

But holding a grudge is not the right thing to do.

A grudge puts poison in your body & rewires your subconscious mind.

You consume the poison & destroy your reality while your attacker sleeps like a baby.
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SK
SK
@sk_diary1
Kolaru Pathigam-Thevaram hymn composed by ThiruGnana Sambandar- #Thread

In Tamil Kol means planets,Aru means cut- set of songs in Kolaru Pathigam addresses all Navagrahas& last 2 lines of every song with end a plea to Bhagwan Shiva to reduce/erase the ill effects of Navagrahas


கோளறு பதிகம் - This pathigam was sung by Thirugnana Sambandar at Thirumaraikadu Kshetram -Vedaranyam,Tamilnadu

Thirugnana Sambandar & Appar(Thirunavukkarasar) travelled together to various Shiva Alayam to spread shivam & bhakti among people.They both reached Thirumaraikadu.


Thirumaraikadu(Vedaranyam) -
Appar & Sambandar were asked to enter the temple through side entrance.The main door was locked by Vedas many years ago.Appar&Sambandar sang devotional hymns praising Shiva, after which the gates opened & closed.After which main door opened for all.


After darshan of Bhagwan Shiva at Thirumaraikkadu,Sambandar received a message to travel to Madurai.
During that time, Samanam was on the rise in the Pandya Kingdom.The Pandya King converted to Samanam.The Queen Mangaiyarkkarasi was a staunch Shiva devotee and was upset.

Kularchirai Nayanar ,Chief Minister of Pandya kingdom was in agony by the turn of events.Queen requested Kulachirai Nayanar to escort Thiru gnana Sambandar to Madurai.Kularchirai Nayanar met Thiru gnana Sambandar at Thirumaraikkadu & requested him to visit Madurai.
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Lakshminarayan G
Lakshminarayan G
@narayanagl
The Chanting of following names of Bhagwan Vishnu, immensely helps us in overcoming the obstacles in our daily life.
These names are from Sri Vishnu Sahasranama!
|. "Om Vashatkaaraaya Namaha" : For Success in Business.
||. "Om Aksharaaya Namaha" : For Success in Studies.


|||. "Om Bhuthabhavanaya Namaha" : For Good Health.
|V. "Om Paramaathmane Namaha" : For Self Confidence.

Src: VAK magazine from Chilkur Balaji Temple, Hyderabad - Sri @csranga
#SanatanaDharma #SanatanaSanskriti #Sattology

One needs to chant the following slokas 28 times to get rid of certain problems in life.
Om Hrushikesaya Namah - For Overcoming Bad habits
Om Vashatkaaraya Namah - For Success in Business, Interviews, visa interviews, building relationships


Om Srimate Namah - For Handsome appearance & wealth
Om Aksharaya Namah - For Education & better financial strength
Om Paramatmane Namah - For self employed people, for promotions and success in games.
Om Putatmane Namah - To remove mental stress & for mental peace


Om Sarmane Namah - For Job Satisfaction
Om Bhutadaye Namah -To amend soured friendship or any personal relationship
Om Dhatre Namah - For issueless couple
Om vidhatre Namah - Pregnant Ladies to Chant for healthy babies.
Chant the following 108 times :
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