Zurich axioms are simple rules in order to learn about betting to win.
Zurich axioms - A book on Risk taking, by Max Gunther
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Zurich axioms are simple rules in order to learn about betting to win.
ON RISK
- Life is an adventure. In order to experience life to its full potential one has to take meaningful risk.. All Investments are speculation. Some people accept it. some don’t.
Always play for meaningful stakes.
ON GREED
- One must take profits soon. Long winning streaks are rare and short ones are vastly common One doesn’t know how long a winning streak will continue. Averages overwhelmingly favor the ones who quit early.
- One must decide in advance how much gain one wants from a venture & when one gets it, square off the position.
- One way to reinforce the ending of a streak is to buy some kind of a reward from the gain.
ON HOPE
- When the ship starts to sink, don't pray. Jump.
- Knowing how to get out of the bad situation takes courage and a sense of honesty. A Professional speculator studies how he will save himself when things fall.
- Accept small losses cheerfully. Taking small losses is a much better way to protect oneself from the big one. Don’t sit on a sinking ship.
ON FORECAST
- Human behavior cannot be predicted. Distrust anyone who claims to know the future, however dimly.
- No one knows what's gonna happen in the future, great speculators don't listen to the forecasts.
On PATTERNS
- Chaos is not dangerous until it begins to look orderly.
World of money is a patternless disorder and utter chaos. Humans have a nature of keeping things in order, eg. unwarranted belief that history repeats itself.
ON MOBILITY
- Avoid putting down Roots. They impede motion. Do not become trapped in a souring venture because of sentiments like loyalty and nostalgia. It is a mistake to let oneself get too attached to businesses in which capital is invested.
- Never hesitate to abandon a venture if something more attractive comes into view.
- Preserve mobility, be ready to jump away from trouble and seize the opportunities quickly.
- All the moves should be made only after careful assessment of the odds for and odds against. When a venture is clearly souring one must sever those roots and go.
ON INTUITION
- A hunch can be trusted if it can be explained. A hunch is a mental event that feels something like knowledge but doesn't feel perfectly trustworthy.
- One is likely to be hit by hunches frequently. Learn to use them.
- When a hunch hits, ask whether a big enough library of data could exist in mind to have generated that hunch. Never lean on hunches too hard.
ON RELIGION AND THE OCCULT
- It is unlikely that God's plan for the universe includes making one rich. Sometimes occult beliefs can get in the way of sound speculative thinking. Leaning on such beliefs may not be hazardous to health, but it is to money.
ON OPTIMISM AND PESSIMISM
- Optimism means expecting the best, but confidence means knowing how to handle the worst. Never make a move solely on optimism. In poker, if a pro arrives at a situation where the odds say he shouldn’t bet then he doesn’t.
- Optimism feels much better than pessimism. It has a hypnotic allure. That’s why bulls outnumbers bears.
- Optimism leads to the ventures with no exits and when there is an exit, it persuades to not to use it.
ON CONSENSUS
- Majority opinions are probably wrong. One should try to come to his own conclusion.
- Never follow speculative fads. Unseen pressure of the majority can not only dislodge a good hunch but can also create doubts on one’s judgments.
- Various entities like brokers and people giving hot tips can constantly bombard an active speculator to buy whatever the majority is buying.
ON STUBBORNNESS
- One must defeat the emotion of perseverance when it is leading one astray.
- Perseverance is not a good idea for speculators. One must persevere to learn, improve and grow rich.
- Never try to save a bad investment by averaging down. Don’t hold your investments in the spirit of stubbornness.
- Value the freedom to choose investments on their merits alone.
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And by the way, you should never be worried that an offer would be withdrawn if you politely negotiate.
I have seen this happen *extremely* rarely, mostly to women, and anyway is a giant red flag. It suggests you probably didn’t want to work there.
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