BC BITCOIN
Saved by @jay_millerjay

1/ The Price of Bitcoin

- Why price is entirely what matters
- How the price helps build Bitcoin

A thread👇

 2/ Marketing viral loop

“A viral loop is a mechanism that drives continuous referrals for continuous growth.

It’s how you drive your existing customers to refer others to your brand, and in turn, get those new customers to tell even more people about you." - @ReferralRock
3/ Most of us heard about Bitcoin in 2013, 2017, when friends and family were talking about the rapid price increase. It’s through this viral loop that Bitcoin grows in adoption.
4/ The price is that signal to folks that Bitcoin is interesting, solves a problem, and that others are recognizing it as a new money. If Bitcoin’s price had stayed at $100 none of us would be here. While there is volatility, we keep seeing higher lows = long term trend upwards.
5/ Satoshi built a viral loop into Bitcoin.

“As the number of users grows, the value per coin increases. It has the potential for a positive feedback loop; as users increase, the value goes up, which could attract more users to take advantage of the increasing value.” - Satoshi
6/ Satoshi wrote this before Bitcoin was even worth $0.01. In the chart below, we have Bitcoin’s price, inflation rate (aka issuance of new coins), and halvings which are the dotted lines. As we can see, a bull run has occurred after each halving.
7/ It is hypothesized that halvings induce these cycles (a reduction in new supply). The idea being a reduction in supply + increase in demand = number go up.
8/ What is unique to Bitcoin vs gold or oil is that there is no supply response to increases in demand.

This means that no more Bitcoin are produced as demand for it increases. With gold or oil, they can be sourced from increasingly more expensive/difficult places when demand ⬆️
9/ User Adoption

In bull runs, user adoption increases. For Bitcoin, as SoV, adoption = buying and HODLing. As we can see with the below chart of Coinbase users, 2017 and late 2020 had enormous increases in users as Bitcoin price started to climb.

https://t.co/6P3WIDxGBU
10/ Funding

With the price increase, more funding is thrown at the space to support a variety of existing and new businesses: exchanges, wallets, data providers, etc. This ensures that there are easy ways for people to buy Bitcoin, store it, and run full nodes.
11/ As we can see in the below chart, in 2018 there was an enormous surge in fundraising activity (Late 2017/early 2018 was the bull run).
12/ Liquidity

As the price rises, so does trading volume. When Bitcoin becomes more liquid, that enables larger and larger participants (ex: Institutional traders/Telsa) to buy substantial amounts of Bitcoin without too much slippage.
13/ This leads to a flywheel effect: as Bitcoin’s liquidity increases, the number of potential new traders does as well (more can get in and out of the position).
14/ Bitcoin core development

The below chart represents code commits for Bitcoin over time. As Bitcoin’s price has increased, so has developer activity and review of Bitcoin core code.
15/ Patron/corporate funding of Bitcoin developers has dramatically increased over the years as well. On the corporate side here is the breakdown of funding as of a year ago:
16/ And Bitcoindevlist is a more grassroots approach to core developer funding where you can fund different Bitcoin developers directly to their personal wallets. With the price appreciating, more of them receive funding!
17/ Security Model

As the price of BTC increases, the value of the block reward increases as well, which incentivizes miners to bring more hashrate online to mine. The higher the hash rate of a cryptocurrency network, the more expensive to 51% attack.
18/ In the early stages of the network, Bitcoin miners are rewarded more heavily by the block subsidy (newly minted coins) than transaction fees. With Bitcoin’s disinflationary monetary policy, approximately every 4 years the block subsidy drops by 50%.
19/ This creates both volatility and a price increase: if demand remains constant (or increases), the reduction in supply means demand is chasing less freshly minted Bitcoins hitting the market. Reduction in supply + increase in demand = price go up.
20/ While the two represent the same security budget, the block subsidy and transaction fees are very different. For the block subsidy, its value is both as a rational way to issue new Bitcoins and as a viral FOMO loop built into the protocol....
21/... which increases the number and network effect of believers in Bitcoin. It further stretches out the need for transaction fees to solely provide security. Hence why it’s called a “subsidy."
22/ Over the long term, a tradeoff occurs: as network effect becomes larger, demand for block space increases, thus decreasing the need for a block subsidy.

We’re seeing the miner % of revenue from fees start to climb up in the 2017 and 2020/2021 bull runs. Bitcoin is fine.
23/ Conclusion

Bitcoin’s price is the singular function that enables Bitcoin to grow in user adoption, liquidity, funding, security, and core development.

It is the most important aspect of Bitcoin. Don’t let anyone tell you otherwise.
24/ Enjoy this tweet storm?

Subscribe to my newsletter to get it first on Thursdays!

https://t.co/TYJDErcY6C

More from Dan Held

Dan Held
Dan Held
@danheld
1/ The Rebellion Begins

What happened with Robinhood and GameStop represents a rebellion against institutions, banks, and governments.

This is Bitcoin's moment.

A thread👇
TRADING
Dan Held
Dan Held
@danheld
1/ Why Silicon Valley Doesn't Get Bitcoin

Over the last 12 years of it’s existence, Bitcoin has been misunderstood by Silicon Valley which has led to many cringe worthy moments as they’ve endorsed silly ideas and even worse, scams.
BITCOIN
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Dan Held
Dan Held
@danheld
1/ Bitcoin: a bold new world.

Satoshi published the white paper on 10/31/2008. Right at the moment of peak despair during the 2008 financial crisis. Trust had been lost in a world that ran on trust.

2/ But why October 31st? It certainly wasn’t because Satoshi was a fan of halloween, it must have had a deeper meaning. With all of his actions, he demonstrated a careful precision.

He had been working on Bitcoin for at least a year and a half before publishing the white paper.

3/ “I believe I've worked through all those little details over the last year and a half while coding it, and there were a lot of them. The functional details are not covered in the paper, but the sourcecode is coming soon” - Satoshi Nakamoto

4/ On August 18, 2008 Satoshi registers registers https://t.co/rMWwiEwtxT through https://t.co/Uj8lMr10kB.

Satoshi was ready and waiting to hit the send button throughout 2008. What was so special about October 31st?

5/ I believe that Satoshi published the Bitcoin white paper on 10/31 as a hat tip to the ancient Gaelic festival of “Samhain” which was also the date in which Martin Luther nailed his 95 Theses to a church door. Both represent an end of the old and the beginning of the new.
CRYPTO
Dan Held
Dan Held
@danheld
1/ Fear and Bitcoin.

Whenever Bitcoin has a bull run, naysayers try to cope with missing the boat by rationalizing why it will fail through “Fear, Uncertainty, and Doubt” or what we Bitcoiners have nicknamed “FUD.”
CRYPTO , FUD
Dan Held
Dan Held
@danheld
1/ Satoshi’s Vision™ is a silly endeavor, as it doesn’t matter what it was, we are where we are now. However, those pushing the “Bitcoin was first made for payments” narrative insist on cherry-picking sentences from the white paper and forum posts to champion their perspective.

2/ The following tweetstorm is a categorical repudiation of this tired narrative. Bitcoin was purpose-built to first be a Store of Value (SoV), a thread:

3/ How do we determine Satoshi’s intention? We need to look at his ideology, description of functionality/architecture, timing, and audience. Let's start with how Satoshi describes the problem Bitcoin solves. In his first public comms after the whitepaper, in the first paragraph:

4/ “The root problem with conventional currency is all the trust that's required to make it work. The central bank must be trusted not to debase the currency, but the history of fiat currencies is full of breaches of that trust.” - Satoshi

5/ He later expands on that Libertarian thought in his other writings:

“[with Bitcoin] we can win a major battle in the arms race and gain a new territory of freedom for several years.” — Satoshi Nakamoto
BITCOIN

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Dan Held
Dan Held
@danheld
1/ Why Silicon Valley Doesn't Get Bitcoin

Over the last 12 years of it’s existence, Bitcoin has been misunderstood by Silicon Valley which has led to many cringe worthy moments as they’ve endorsed silly ideas and even worse, scams.
BITCOIN
Piyush Chaudhry
Piyush Chaudhry
@piyushchaudhry
#Bitcoin has completed a Zig Zag formation from it's inception.
Break below Orange Trendline would confirm the termination.
Post that it can correct to the shaded zone by the given time frame.
It's been a major surprise that it all transformed into a Zig Zag and not an Impulse.


Other Technical factors:
• An H&S breakdown
• Break below Anchored VWAP from March 2020 Lows
• Volume Distribution
BITCOIN
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Alex
Alex
@classicmacro
$BTC views

Price needs to let volatility wear off before its next big move. Thinking 30K-40K range for the next 1-2 weeks. Then either 50K straight or after piercing 30K and bouncing back above 30K within 1-2 days.


$27500-$27000 is the key area. If price heads back down to 30K, expect 30K to be breached, fall to that area, and bounce back. FAST. All very fast.


What do I do with this information?

Simple.

I'm trading the range against a core position. Buying when price pushes lower, selling when higher. It's like playing the achordeon. There's always air left inside.

Where exactly?

Nowhere.

I don't use limits for that. $BTC is liquid enough to trade at market without issues.

I'm watching PA, volume and rates for buying and euphoria as reflected in rates for reducing.

Decision making is dynamic. Nothing is set in stone. But most likely if price heads back down to 30K 'll be holding off next time. The gameplan is to have ammo to buy the dip (to redeploy). If 30K breaks absolutely no buying until down to 27Ks or back above 30K.
BITCOIN
Kirtan A Shah
Kirtan A Shah
@KirtanShahCFP
𝐀 𝐩𝐫𝐢𝐦𝐞𝐫 𝐨𝐧 𝐁𝐥𝐨𝐜𝐤𝐜𝐡𝐚𝐢𝐧 & 𝐂𝐫𝐲𝐩𝐭𝐨𝐬 🧵

I still everyday meet investors who think Bitcoin & Blockchain are the same & this thread is specifically for them

Do re-tweet & help us educate more invetsors ☺

#Investing #Cryptos #Bitcoin (1/n)

(Q1) Lets start with what was historically used as a method of payment?

- Barter system, you give me a cow and I give you 100 kgs of rice (2/n)

(Q2) So why dint we continue with the barter system?

- It was difficult to transact in fractions
- What if I want only 50 kgs of rice? I cant give you half a cow right?
- This is the prime reason for the introduction of smaller units of payment method we now call as coins (3/n)

(Q3) How did Gold coins get shortlisted for the job?
- It was malleable & portable
- It was non corrosive, could be stored for a long time
- It was a perfect combination of abundance & rare
- Plus it was eye catching & visually appealing (4/n)

(Q4) What about paper currencies?
a) When paper currencies were introduced, it was decided that a country could only print as much currency as the gold reserves they have but this was withdrawn in 1971 bcoz of which the central banks could then print as much money as they wanted
BITCOIN
Mayank Narula
Mayank Narula
@Mayank_Narula1
#Bitcoin weekly RSI is at the same level as it was during the March'20 crash.

Two possibilities:

1) Reversal
2) Crash to test the lower bound of the channel or even lower, as most of the crashes are preceded by oversold readings.

As of now, 2 has a higher probability.
BITCOIN

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