BC BITCOIN
Saved by @Shubham51ngh

For those who were trading in 2017 or earlier bull markets this may be obvious, but these kinds of corrections are typically driven by overleveraged longs, not whales dumping on you. That hasn’t started yet. Let me break down why it happens and why it is worse on the weekends.

 I should probably have data to back this up, but I haven’t kept up to date with the latest trading data so much of this is based on intuition and experience trading through 2016-2018. If you have data that invalidates this please provide it, happy to be wrong here!
Firstly in an early bull market you have some OG holders taking profit around previous ATH, they have “learned their lesson” and are trying to not get rekt like last time. Once they finish taking some profits or hedging they are riding this up to multiples of previous ATH.
For example I sold around 5-10% of my ETH into stables between $500-$1200, over $1,200 you would need to claw it out of my cold dead hands before we hit $3k. If we don’t get there this cycle (we will) then I will just keep holding. I know a lot of people who did the same.
The problem with this is that the new money coming in and pushing the price up is highly leveraged, and the people with the most conviction are mainly holding and so while they might buy some dips they probably don’t have the dry powder to soak up huge liquidated positions.
That is why you get these very sharp corrections in a bull market, it is not people who held for years suddenly capitulating in a directional bull market, it is just longs being liquidated or delevered.
The most interesting thing about this BTC movement is that it appears to have been kicked off by institutional buying. If that is true what we can guess is they are not buying with leverage, and they are convicted enough they are not unwinding a position based on a -5% move.
That is why all of these deleveraging events keep getting bought up, but @fintechfrank is right, tomorrow (if we don’t bounce by then) will be a big test of that theory. If this dip is bought up Monday morning US time that would be strong evidence in favour.
Many of you remember this gem of a tweet: https://t.co/wpKpYWxlBp the question is why was I so wrong? Mainly because I kind of gave up on the institutions are coming narrative in 2018.
If institutions have actually arrived, we should see lower volatility during weekdays and high volatility on the weekends which over the last few weeks has started to become a pattern.
There is also a chance there is some unexplained magical process going on that lags the halvening by like six months that causes BTC to rally massively. I was never 100% convinced of this, but I mean three times now…
I’m confident the DeFi rally of summer 2020 would have picked up steam again this year without a massive BTC rally adding tailwinds, but this is obviously hugely helpful to both ETH and DeFi generally.
The key takeaway here is that if you are a new entrant to the market or you have been here for a while don’t be spooked by a -10% daily candle. While we all carry a little PTSD from late the 2018 capitulation it is important not to overreact to intraday moves, or even intraweek.
Make sure you are neither over-leveraged or over-exposed so you can comfortably ride out a few volatile days!

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Preston Pysh
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@PrestonPysh
Here’s my thoughts with BTC lending as this cycle heats up. During the previous cycle we saw BTC prices jump from 10,000 to 20,000 in 16 days. This means that if the borrower overcollateralized with an LTV of 50%, their escrow will be liquidated (unless margin is met)...1/

within half a month. Now, what happens if this cycle produces growth that keeps running at double the price action in another 16 days from there? Well, it means those that just met the previous margin calls, now only have 4 days to respond to the next. So what does 2/

this mean for spreads? It means borrowers start to disappear from the market...which also means the spreads in the derivative market don’t get market makers to service the short-side of the trade. For lending/borrowing platforms that are completely overcollateralized, there 3/

shouldn’t be any problems for the depositors, but if lending/borrowing platforms are cutting corners for some of their borrowers (and they aren’t overcollateralized), the borrowers ability to meet margin calls due to counter-party risks in other parts of their portfolio mix ...4/

could cause systematic risk for all participants of the borrowing/lending platform. This is why transparency on borrowing/lending platforms are paramount to long-term trust and growth in the industry. I suspect the risk to lending/borrowing platforms is actually....5/
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Harsh / \ud5c8\uc26c
Harsh / 허쉬
@_Harsh_Mehta_
#Bitcoin #BTC - Break of lower channel support at around 16500-17000 shall take it to 1750-1800

Massive price erosion in cryptos a very likely outcome. This shall spill over to equities as well but not to same extent.
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Piyush Chaudhry
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@piyushchaudhry
#Bitcoin has completed a Zig Zag formation from it's inception.
Break below Orange Trendline would confirm the termination.
Post that it can correct to the shaded zone by the given time frame.
It's been a major surprise that it all transformed into a Zig Zag and not an Impulse.


Other Technical factors:
• An H&S breakdown
• Break below Anchored VWAP from March 2020 Lows
• Volume Distribution
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cryptograffiti
cryptograffiti
@cryptograffiti
With Philadelphia now up, the billboard photo thread that teaches those about #Bitcoin as an alternative to our broken financial system is complete

Those in the 12 Federal Reserve Bank cities who see them are directed to the thread below as copied from @BTCvsFED ⬇️


Not long ago, the dollar was backed by gold

This meant you could redeem your dollar for gold & the government had to have enough gold to match the number of dollars they printed

“The Gold Standard” ended in 1971 b/c the US ran low on gold & needed more $ for war & welfare


Without a cap on how much money could be printed, The Federal Reserve (USA’s central bank) was now free to create unlimited quantities of dollars

When the Fed prints money, inflation occurs & prices go up b/c all dollars are worth less

If your earnings don't keep up w/ the rate of inflation the purchasing power of your dollars melts away

Imagine the economy is a pizza & The Fed gives you a slice ($1)

When printing new money, they cut your🍕into more pieces to give out


Yes, you still have a slice ($1) but you’re hungrier b/c that $1 doesn’t go as far

Many Americans hold dollars b/c they can’t afford a home & w/ bills to pay they can’t risk the stock market

Meanwhile, the wealthy move $ into real estate & other assets that better hold value
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Radigan Carter
Radigan Carter
@radigancarter
I have a different take on bitcoin, tether, and dollars

Can also speak with authority on nation state violence

"Nothing makes you feel more free than taking another person's freedom"


and @profplum99 concerns with tether, bitcoin, and decentralization make sense yet I remain long BTC

They are correct on force, I worked in decentralized societies, they are dangerous because the state does not have a monopoly on violence

For those in the first world who have never seen a milita ride out of the desert, kill and enslave farmers, and the government cannot stop it because the 21st century slave trade pays better than the UN, the reality of decentralization is might equals right

I know, that isn't the decentralized future Buterin talks about while wearing a t-shirt with a cat fighting space invaders on it (love those shirts)

But we need to be real, disrupting the global centralized economy won't be like Uber putting taxis out of work

It will be war and faminine level disruption as old empires come alive again

For decentralization to rise the centralized global power of the last 70 years (US Hegemony) has to weaken

Yes we will be rich, but as the Big Short says,

"you can be happy, just don't fucking dance"
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