Catch me if you can @Mitesh_Engr

Time for a🧵
Mitesh Sir's EXPIRY Option Selling 101:
• What to look for?
• Strike Selection & Ratios
• SL mgmt
• Avoiding freezes
• Monthy Expiry
• Event days
• How he would have traded last expiry?

In collaboration with @AdityaTodmal

Edward de Bono says intelligence is like a🚗 Automobile

“A powerful car may be driven badly. A less powerful car may be driven well. The skill of the car driver determines how the power of the car is used.”

What @Mitesh_Engr Sir looks at for Expiry Trading:

• Technicals of BNF
• Individual Heavyweight stocks of BNF
• Support/Resistance of BNF on weekly TF
• Also has Superb SL management
• When it comes to adjustments, he is always on toes

How to Select Strikes to Sell?

• You can't sell based on premium
• Follow only trend
• Price action is best to sell on expiry day
• Never wait for the options to go to zero

Using Ratios to Sell:

• If BNF is in a range then strangles
• If breakout/ breakdown from a range then directional
• Selling 70/30 or 80/20 ratios
• 2 examples on how he used ratios

Time for a Thread🧵On yesterday’s “F&O Pe Charcha - Diary Of An Option Seller” with @Mitesh_Engr by @Paytm Money

Why Gain/loss ratio is important that the batting average
• More than the Win Loss ratio check the total Gain /loss ratio
• If your avg loss is 1% and avg gain is +5% then even if you are losing in 7 positions and winning in 3 out of 10 still you will be net profitable

Treat Trading as a business:
• Stick to a single strategy. Eg: A restaurateur usually wouldn’t be changing his recipe on a daily basis
• Mitesh Sir only works on BO or BD strategy, as he is a versatile trader

• Any trader should atleast experience 3 scenarios i.e. bull, bear & consolidation
• Target 4% per month i.e. 48% p.a.
• Option buying requires skill, everyday there wont be huge momentum, so buying options won’t yield good results, but high chances of falling into a bad habit

Stock Selection:
• In F&O segment there are ~150 stocks
• Not everyday all stocks will move
• Only 5-7 stocks move upside or downside
• Focus only these momentum stocks
• Check which one is moving
• Range BO/BD never disappoints. BO/BD from a rectangle (consolidation)

Subasish Pani revealed the most simple, yet successful strategy: 5EMA set up!

Here is a thread of 23 video clips on the 5EMA set-up that will save you hundreds of hours and available to you for no cost!

5EMA set-up: 🧵!

Collaborated with @AdityaTodmal

1/Don't hate on any style:

• Admire the fact that money can be made from intraday, scalping, positional, option buying, selling, futures, etc

• Try to understand which one fits you the most and apply that, then ignore the rest!

2/ System with a R/R of minimum 1:3:

• Here is a system that works for investing, scaping, positional, options buying and selling, futures etc.

• The R/R of this set up in intraday is 1:3 & for investing can go beyond.

3/ Why EMA over SMA? :

• Exponential moving average is used, as it places a greater weight and significance on the most recent data points.

4/ 5EMA moves very close to the prices:

• Mean reversion theory: Asset prices usually tend to go back to normal or average levels after an extreme price move.

• Prices routinely oscillate around the mean but tend to return to that same average price over and over.

Sep 1, 2021, fresh month starts with a challenge i.e. introduction of Peak Margin rules by SEBI

Time for a 🧵

Lets demystify the Peak Margin rules and try to find solutions for the option sellers!

Peak Margin by SEBI:
• 100% upfront margin for intraday trades in the derivative segment
• Effectively MIS orders = NRML orders, as both will attract same margin in the derivative segment
• Minimum margin for equity intraday trades will be 20% of trade value i.e. 5X leverage

How things used to operate erstwhile?
• Until last year there were no standardization of leverage
• Brokerage firms used to offer their clients intraday leverage of 5x, 10, 15x, 20x etc. as margin reporting was done on EoD basis

• Brokerage firms were allowing customers to take intraday positions with margins far lesser than required via products like MIS, BO, CO, etc. as the positions used to get squared off before the trading hours

• Eg: If 1 lot of Nifty futures require (SPAN + exposure of) Rs. 1.1L, brokerage houses would allow to trade with just 20-30% of this amount i.e Rs. 33k

Mr. Vijay Kedia built a net worth of over Rs. 800 crores.

But you probably never read past that headline.

So I binged hours of interviews to learn his investing principles and strategies.

Here are 20 lessons on investing from @VijayKedia1 Sir:

Collaborated with @AdityaTodmal

Before I start, a quick disclaimer, please don't ape his portfolio.

As the entry price, horizon and risk appetite would be far different than yours.

Rather lets draw inspiration and try to learn his stock picking skills.

Now let's DIVE IN👇

1/ Started off as a trader:

- Soon, beginner’s luck started to fade out and loses started to mount, to an extent where his mother was about to sell her ornaments.

- Although he was able to dodge the situation.

- This incident taught him the biggest lesson to have a stop-loss.

2/ Punjab Tractors:

- In 1990, he made his first investment by putting in his 10-years savings of Rs 35,000 in this stock, based on a news trigger that tractor industry will witness a turnaround.

- It worked and fetched him 4-5 times which he calls it as a fluke.

3/ He believes that an investor must possess three qualities:

i. Knowledge,
ii. Courage, and
iii. Patience.

Sep 23, 2021 - Weekly expiry, preceded by the FOMC meet and not to mention the gap up which then turned out to be a trending day

Here’s how the strangles were converted into straddles & how the positions were managed!

Time for a Thread 🧵

• Wednesday night (IST) there was an event, FOMC meet
• Markets were jittery, as they say, when US sneezes the world catches cold
• Both Dow & Nifty were weak
• All eyes were fixed on the Fed Reserve Chair Jerome Powell’s take on interest rate and the pace of asset purchases

• So didn’t wanted to get caught on the wrong side, hence on Wednesday noon Shorted a strangle
• ~700-800 points away from where the BNF was about to close i.e. 37k levels
• 37800 CE @ 43 & 37700 CE @ 34 & 36200 PE 28 & 36300 PE at 34

• On Wednesday 37K strike witnessed heavy CE & PE Open interest 2.5mn & 2mn of CE & PE writing respectively

• On Wed night, the cat was out of the bag and Mr. Powell kept interest rates at zero & continued the current pace of asset purchases
• Dow celebrated the news and on Thursday morning (weekly expiry) i.e. Sep 23, 2021 BNF opened with a gap up of ~300 points and opened at 37241

Few weeks ago @Ronak_Unadkat Sir conducted an exclusive session for me & @adityatodmal to explain how he trades.

He was kind enough to share all his trade strategies and was patient enough to answer our doubts.

Thought of making a 🧵for the benefit of the larger audience here.

Sir's Option Selling Logic 🧵:
• Reversals in Intraday Option selling
• Strike Selection & SL
• Hedging for any Black Swan Event
• Positional Option selling
• Ratio Spreads
• How to manage the positions
• Capital mgmt

In collaboration with @AdityaTodmal

How to play reversals
• Always look at the chart as a starting point
• Spot the Swing low
• Sell Strikes 300-400 points below that swing low
• Buy a proper hedge

• Example on how to play reversals on Intraday
• Instead of the selling the support strike sell a bit far

• As the strike is far from the support you get enough cushion

• As soon as the SL is hit, you can exit the positions

• without your strike coming into ITM

Undisputed champion 🏆 in option selling and undoubtedly India's best trader @Mitesh_Engr Sir

Lessons on how to trade in such difficult times from the Indian Options Conclave 3.0 by Jainam Broking Ltd

Time for a🧵

Collaborated with @AdityaTodmal

How to trade in options during high volatility i.e. India vix>22-23 ?

In the current scenario, option sellers who are deploying strangles are unable to make money

E.g.: If a trader is selling a strangle of Rs. 100 each leg then during a fast momentum on either side, one leg becomes 80 & the other one Rs. 200
So overall, the strangle seller is at a loss

Strangles & Straddles are easy to manage in low vix

During high vix, find reversals

Mitesh Sir follows 3min TF in Bank nifty futures chart

Specimen:

In a down trending market people are tempted to sell CE & avoid selling PE's, however it would be disastrous to hold those CE's till expiry

Trailing is the answer during high VIX, as the momentum is faster on both sides

Check past few days charts on 3min TF for more clarity

Full Price Action Course in this thread 🧵

This course is worth 50k

Collaborated with @AdityaTodmal

1/ How to read Candlestick:

Green/Blue candle indicates buyers candle & red candle indicates sellers candle

2/ 24 candlestick patterns explained

3/ Price Action (PA) trading:

PA helps to predict market movements by spotting patterns or ‘signals’ in the price movements of an underlying market.

Learn different price action strategies

4/ How to plot Support &

The most valuable aspect in trading you aren't using:

POSITION SIZING

Sizing is the key, you'll make big money only if you own a significant size without compromising on risk.

Here are 10 of them, and they are for free: 🧵

Collaborated with @AdityaTodmal

1/ For a faster growth, one needs to have a bigger size:

• What difference would it make if a stock moves by 300%?

• But then, what if you had only 1% capital allocation?

• Despite the stock performing spectacularly, your account won't reflect the same, due to small sizing.

2/ Three types of position sizing:

1. Fixed absolute Rupee amount that one is willing to risk.
2. % risk of the total capital.
3. Basis the edge.

Risk tolerance should be taken into consideration while determining appropriate position sizing.

3/ Fixed absolute Rupee Amount:

• Eg: Total capital is Rs. 10 lacs and the max risk per trade is Rs. 7500

• Lets say a stock is trading at 1200 and your SL is 1120 (i.e. your risk per unit us Rs. 1200-1120 =Rs. 80)

• Optimum qty: 7500/80 = 94 units

4/ Percentage risk of total capital:

• Lets say you want to risk 1% of the total capital on each trade.

• Considering the total capital of Rs. 10 lacs, you shall risk Rs. 10,000 i.e. 1% of 10lacs on each trade.

• Quantity to be traded/invested calculation remains the same.

How to save taxes on the trading profits for an individual

4 Legit ways to retain most of the trading income: 🧵

Collaborated with @AdityaTodmal

1. Divide your capital amongst your family members:

• Ensure they are not salaried employees as they might not be allowed to trade as per their employer's policy.

• Your family is your strength, not just emotionally, but financially too.

• E.g. your net taxable income works out to Rs. 50 lacs, as per the new tax regime, you are in the 30% tax bracket.

However, if you divide the capital amongst your family members in such a way that the net taxable income works out to Rs. 12.5 lacs per member (assuming 4).

This way the tax bracket gets shifted from 30% to 20%, clear saving of 10%

2. Expenses a trader can claim:

All the expenses directly related to the trading business can be claimed.

i) Rent Expense: If one has an office on rented premises, rent paid is a valid expense. However, you should have the rent receipts & rent agreement as valid proof.

Short Straddle is the highest payoff strategy.

However it comes with undefined risk.

Most traders don't know when & how to adjust the short straddle when it goes wrong.

Here are 16 adjustments to lower risk & increase profitability:🧵

Collaborated with @AdityaTodmal

1/ Longer-term short straddle:

• Helps in getting a big range: trade in biweekly, monthly, or far months.

• The only drawback with longer term straddles is the slippage.

• Also go for round levels both in NF and BNF as they have better liquidity.

2/ Weekly expiries will have short range:

• Leading to higher risk.

• Would require frequent adjustments.

3/ When to sit tight?

• As long as the underlying is between the breakeven point of the Short straddle, we do nothing.

• Don't adjust till breakeven comes, simply sit tight.

• Adjusting a short straddle typically brings in more credit, which increases the profit potential.

4/ When does a short straddle come into loss:

• The moment the underlying price moves towards one end of the breakeven point, your short straddle will be in loss.

• Adjustments would require additional funds, so don't go all in with your capital for shorting straddles.

90 million active demat accounts in India.

Less than 1% understand Fibonacci retracement.

This mega thread will help you understand better—starting today:

Collaborated with @AdityaTodmal

1/What is Fibonnaci (Fibo) retracement?:

•Fibo retracement levels help us to identify potential reversal area or identifying potential entry point after a pullback.

•It represents various levels of significance within a swing high and low.

2/How to plot the Fibo?

•Spot the recent swing high & swing low (usually a peak & a low) on a chart.

•Plot the Fibo on these points.

•You'll get 5 key levels of support & resistance (S/R) in between the peak & low.

•Key Fibonacci ratios: 23.6%, 38.2%, 50%, 61.8%, & 100%.

3/ Importance of retracement levels:

• The retracement level forecast can determine the level at which retracement is likely to occur.

• These retracement levels offer traders a favourable entry to open new trades in the direction of the trend.

4/ When to apply Fibo:

•Fibonacci analysis can be applied when there is a noticeable up-move or down-move in prices.

•Applying it in range bound markets would turn out to be a futile exercise.

@AdityaTodmal Stan Weinstein's Secrets For Profiting in Bull and Bear Markets

& Mark Minervini Books

7 effective trading journal tools that you can use to make better decisions (instead of just maintaining a trading journal):🧵

Collaborated with @AdityaTodmal

Lets start with the harsh truth.

80% of traders just maintain a trading journal and never evaluate.

Recording your trades on day-to-day basis is just maintaining a trade book which your broker can furnish anytime.

Hence this exercise of recording trades is simply futile.

Things to record in the Trading Journal:

1.Long/ Short
2. Symbol
3. Qty
4. Buy Date
5. Buy price
6. Sell Date
7. Sell price
8. Profit/Loss
9. SL
10. % of cap risked
11.RoI %
12.RoCE %
13.Days held
14.R/R
15.Set up used

Once all the records are in place you need to build an analytics tool.

Trade records on its own is just the raw data which needs to be processed to derive info out of it.

Record your 50 or 100 trades.

Thereafter, analyse the following:

1. No. of wins
2. No. of Losses
3. % of winning trades ( No. of wins/Total trades)
4. Avg gain %
5. Avg loss %
6. Gain to Loss ratio ( 4./5.)
7. Reward to Risk ratio
8. Open Risk

𝐁𝐚𝐬𝐢𝐜𝐬 𝐨𝐟 𝐃𝐞𝐫𝐢𝐯𝐚𝐭𝐢𝐯𝐞𝐬 - 𝐏𝐚𝐫𝐭 𝐈𝐈𝐈

Topics covered:

• Moneyness of an Option

• Intrinsic value & Time value of an option

• Why Intrinsic value & time value matters

• Implied Volatility

Time for a 🧵

Curated in collaboration with
@AdityaTodmal

• Moneyness of Option contract:
• ITM option
• ATM option
• OTM option

• Intrinsic Value of an option:
• Positive payoff for the buyer

• Intrinsic value of ITM CE options = Spot- Strike

• Intrinsic value of an:
i) ITM for a CE option: Positive
ii) ATM for a CE option: Zero
• Intrinsic value is never Negative