1/ Some things *I think* I’ve learned messing around in crypto for the last 12 months.

2/ 🎲 These markets are *not* efficient.

Smaller, new tokens are explicitly manipulated and the lack of shorting leads to exponential price moves.

3/ 🏦 CEX listing events are historically bearish.

More liquidity plus shorting pressure invites greater efficiency, which is the killer of exponential moves.

4/ 🐳🦈🐠🎣🍣 Understand where you are in the information food chain.

Unless you have good reason to believe you’re early, assume you’re late.

(And, therefore, the exit liquidity.)

5/ 🤏 (Position) Size matters.

For stuff I expect to go exponential, I find selling in line with logarithmic moves a useful framework.

S&P500 is down 6.5% since the start of January.

Nasdaq is down over 10%, the Dow 6%.

Why do stocks go down when Treasury yields (i.e. interest rates) go up?

Especially tech stocks!

Thread 👇 🧵

1/ The standard textbook explanation is this:

The Fed ⬆️ rates, this ⬆️ borrowing costs for banks and pretty much everyone else.

The story then unfolds:

Interest rates ⬆️, mortgage and credit card rates ⬆️, disposable income 🔽

2/ Now you, the consumer, are spending less money.

When you spend less, firms sell less stuff.

This in turn affects company earnings, and by extension their stock prices.

3/ Tech stocks are particularly sensitive due to the discounted cash flow (DCF) model.

It’s just a way how investors value stocks.

Anticipating what the future cash flow of tech firms is worth today.

4/ The key metric here is the discount factor which lowers the present value of future earnings.

And the discount factor reflects interest rates in the economy.

As interest rates go ⬆️ the present value of future earnings goes 🔽

In 2006 I was meeting with Jeff Bezos to discuss acquiring Audible when he described their founder Don Katz as “a missionary, not a mercenary.” I later learned Jeff got this framing from John Doerr, and it struck me as a good distinction when evaluating people. Here's a 🧵:

Most great founders are missionaries. Starting a company requires a level of commitment that lends itself to missionary zeal. Of course some founders are primarily motivated by money, but mercenary founders tend not to build lasting companies, opting instead for a quicker exit.

Missionary founders also care about making money, but they are primarily motivated by a higher calling. The mission of the company means something to them in their bones. They truly believe in serving their customers, improving people's lives, putting a "dent in the universe."

I remember my new hire orientation at Amazon in 1999. They shared a letter from a customer living in a rural village in Eastern Europe who was grateful to have access to books. We left with stickers that read “Work hard. Have fun. Make history.” I remember thinking, Let’s Go!

Chris Cox delivered a new hire orientation speech at Facebook religiously every Monday talking about the evolution of communications from the printing press to the internet and social media. Cox’s missionary speech left everyone in the room with that same feeling, Let’s Go!

1/ Have been thinking about the evolution of VC investing in crypto, if we believe it to be as big or bigger than the internet shift of the late 90s and mobile of the 00s. Today, there are no more “internet” or “mobile” tech investors. To not be is to be irrelevant.

2/ In the last 5 years, early in the cycle, crypto-focused VC funds, mostly early-stage, achieved 5-100x returns with both index and concentrated strategies, with significant gains from those early in DeFi. Mean returns 7-8x. Notable funds all 10x+.

3/ This yr, generalist VCs and HFs have entered, while crypto-native funds have raised or grown larger from asset value growth. Crypto funding is on track to more than 10x this year vs 2020. Valuations grew commensurately.

4/ And still it feels so early. Current total mkt cap of all tokens is similar to that of just MSFT ($2.5T). There is still under 10M unique participants in DeFi. There is ~same daily txns on Eth as there are on Nasdaq in seconds.

5/ How will crypto investing evolve? Some predictions: (1) In the next 12-24 months, VCs with focused crypto expertise and a flexible mandate to fully participate in token investment and governance will continue to dominate, especially in early stage.

Most startups pitch like this...
• Problem
• Solution
• Market Size
• Competition
• Biz Model
• Projections
• Team

But, this is the WORST way to tell your story.

Instead, here's how you craft a BILLION dollar story that always hits the mark 🧵

The standard problem-solution pitch treats fundraising conversations like a checklist ☑️

It has the right pieces... but it's not a memorable story 😩

Investors have to sell you to the rest of their partners. All you've given them is a list of facts.

You need a better flow...

Instead, start your pitch with TRENDS 📈

Trends are macro market conditions that affect your startup.

Good trends make your startup inevitable. They make it impossible to fail.

(@businessbarista's last episode on Founder's Journal covers this)

Some relatable examples:

Ex 1: @Clubhouse

They BLEW UP in 2020, but this idea was bound to succeed.

Why?
1/ Covid made us crave human connection
2/ Big jump in influencers thanks to TikTok & Insta
3/ Airpods hit mass adoption — walking around with Airpods in was now normal (this was low-key huge)

The real genius is recognizing these trends early on 🔑

After you see these 3 trends happening at the same time, it's obvious that *someone* was going to build an audio-social network.

Rohan & Paul were smart enough to see it in 2019.

Probably some luck in there, too 😉

Most of the coins that will be in the top 10 of gaming crypto are still tiny OR haven't even launched a token yet.

You have time/a chance here to become one of those "I invested in bitcoin at $200" assholes (that everyone secretly wants to be).

500x gains. Focus.

If leveraged quickly, Twitter can lead to life-changing opportunities, jobs, mentors, and friendships.

It did for me.

But 95% of people have no idea how to start.

Here's a thread of 13 tips to help you turn Twitter into your most valuable resource:

1. Protect your attention from the algorithm.

Twitter is geared to try and serve content they think you like, not content that will create a positive impact for you.

To protect your attention:

• Use Twitter Lists
• Block Trending Topics
• Regularly Mute Conversations

2. Build Twitter Lists

The Twitter timeline is scattered. One second you are learning about NFTs, the next the best coffee shop in NYC.

Lists create content silos that allow you to build deeper understanding of the topics you actually care about.

(Video h/t @aaditsh)

2a. Use Lists on iOS

The majority of Twitter consumption happens on mobile.

Easily toggle between lists at the top of your screen by pinning them there!

3. Use Tweetdeck

Tweetdeck superpowers your Twitter experience.

• Displays all your lists in one place
• Timeline is organized by chronology not the algorithm
• Allows you to see the bios of your recent follows (DM the ones that interest you!)

So many small caps with strong fundamentals and teams that keep delivering that are flying under the radar!

1/ On NFTs 2030

However bullish you are on NFTs, you are wrong.

You are insufficiently bullish.

6529 has gone to the mountaintop and there is almost nothing in life that 6529 is as sure of as this

2/ First, the usual anti-FOMO advice.

The rest of this thread is giga-bull NFTs in general as a technology.

This does not mean that you should ape in the PFP collection "Silver Snails". Most individual NFTs are heading to zero.

Now back to the main event

3/ 6529 first came across BTC in 2011-2012 and ignored it.

It was not until August 2013 in my apartment in NYC when I actually engaged, read the white paper, downloaded a node, bought a BTC and sent $20 of BTC across the world instantly.

4/ It was an instant teleport to the future. But a very broad expansive future

Solving the Byzantine General's problem allowing for decentralized consensus is not a discovery that leads only to permissionless wire transfers or even digital gold or even uncensorable payments

5/ All of those things are super important and the OG Bitcoin decentralization maxis with their full nodes and paper wallets are providing an invaluable public service, keeping a global independent payment rail open and running.

They are sentries on our societal frontier

What if you want to startup, but you have no technical skills like web development, coding, etc?

😧

Interviewing at Techstars. Quick thread:

(Guide about the format/delivery, not the business)

Be yourself. No-one can do you better, so first and foremost stay true to yourself. If there is a conflict between this guide and you, choose you.

Knowing that if you're successful, this is the first of 10 years of meetings. Hence: build a connection. This isn't meant to be transactional. Connect on a human-level asking about anything you are genuinely curious about having read up on them prior.

Like attracts like. Bring good energy, positive vibes and gratitude. "So happy to be here", "Thank you for the time", "Thats a great question", "I appreciate that perspective!"

Answer all the questions you know, but feel free to say "I don't know" to one or some of them. Confidence is easy to show, coachability isn't. We want to know you're aware you don't have all the answers.

Fun fact: We don't either, but we'll get there together.

Can #cardano $ada pull a 100X price move from here... realistically?

thread

Note that there is a chance we see a pull back when smart contracts launch. "buy the rumor sell the news" effect.

Some don't think this will happen because SCs are too bullish.

Below staking launch chart

Those on 0 ADA could wait to buy, bag holders be ready for turbulence

But that is just a short term event, and you are not reading this thread for better buying opportunities. We are here to talk moon mission.

So what is a realistic price target for Cardano long term, say end of the decade?

Well a 4X pump would put ADA at the same market cap as Ethereum now = $10 per ADA

10X pump would give ADA same market cap as BTC now = $28 per ada

PARTING THE RED SEA: FACT OR FICTION?

1. The story says the man Pharoah Ramesses II freed his people the Israelites after years in slavery, was Moses. God initiated series of plagues, finally Pharoah agreed to release the Israelites, they leave Egypt & head for the promised land

2. Fast, racing against time, the Israelites head for freedom. But Pharoah changes his mind, sends his army to chase them down & kill them.

The Israelites increased their pace, off they ran, but their way is blocked by an impenetrable obstacle - the RED SEA.

3. They are trapped & Ramesses Egyptian army is closing in fast. The Bible tells us the next amazing thing, something extraordinary happened.

Moses stretched out his arm, the water parts & the Israelites escapes right through the exploded seabed.

4. As Egyptian army pursued, the waters flood back destroying Pharoah’s army.

A great story by many stretch, but did anything like this really ever happen? Most scholars agree the story of Moses & the Israelites have been in the time of Ramesses II, the Greatest of all Pharaohs!

5. He reached his highest powers around 1230 BC, so we have a precise date.

It’s an all too familiar story, but there’s a problem. Biblical text tells about the Israelites in Egypt for so many years. We are talking generations, but no one has found any physical trace of them.

The billion dollar Google Chrome extension club:

- Loom
- Honey
- Grammarly

These companies started as Chrome Extensions and created billions of value

Here's why it works:

- People barely uninstall extensions
- Barrier to install is low
- Extensions are "always on"
- People pay for many of them

Chrome Extensions are underrated

The cool thing about Chrome Extensions?

You could make millions to billions from extensions

Tons of opportunities small and large

Chrome Web Store:

2 billion users: 200,000 extensions = 10,000 users : 1 extension

Apple App Store:

100 million iPhone users : 2 million iOS apps = 50 users : 1 iOS app

Google Play Store:

2 billion Android users : 3 million apps = 667 users : 1 app

Bottom line:

Launching a Chrome extension gives you 200 times more potential users than an iOS app

🤔 Asking for a founder: what are growth hacks all early-stage founders should do?

At 40, Jim Simons left a famed math career to launch the most successful hedge fund ever: Renaissance Tech.

Even though it only won 51% of trades, the fund made 66%/yr for 30yrs (Simons worth = $25B). It's a story of genius, but also of how hard it is to beat markets.

THREAD🧵

1/ The crown jewel of RenTech is The Medallion Fund (launched in 1988).

◻️ From 1988-2018, it posted a return of 66%/yr (39% after fees)
◻️$1 invested in 1988 is now worth $14m+
◻️ Cumulative profit = $100B+ even with an avg. fund size of only $4.5B

2/ Before creating what Bloomberg calls the “greatest money-making machine ever”, Simons was a legendary mathematician.

3/ While at Stony Brook, Simons started trading commodities (with money staked by former MIT classmates).

The side investing was good enough that Simons -- also going through a divorce -- decided to leave academia and launch his own money management firm in 1978: Monemetrics.

4/ At the time, there were 2 main investment approaches:

◻️ Fundamental (understanding and forecasting an asset based on key drivers)
◻️ Technical analysis (studying price charts)

Simons’ strategy was to place a “fundamental lens” on currencies (eg. supply and demand).

This week I interviewed someone who:

- Built a $1.5B company as COO
- Sold a $1B company to Microsoft
- Invested in 25 🦄🦄🦄🦄

Here’s 10 timeless lessons from one of the greatest tech entrepreneurs of our generation:

is a legend and man of many titles:

Founder, Executive, Investor, Coach, Filmmaker.

He’s also a down to earth guy that’s incredibly generous with his time.

This convo was a follow on from a dialogue we started earlier this year.

Alright...onto the lessons:

Lesson #1: Startups should NOT “do things that don’t scale”

The whole point of technology is to find an elegant, scalable approach.

The sooner you do that, the better off you are.

When you glorify doing things that don’t scale, you end up with a startup that doesn’t scale.

Lesson #2: You can’t do it alone, no matter how great you are.

To win big, surround yourself with:

A. Other greats
B. Role players
C. A system that brings out the best in everyone.

All three of these are equally important and allow organizations to thrive.

Lesson #3: Silicon Valley is no longer a place. It’s a way of doing business

20 years ago SV was the home for innovation.

Today it's now spread to many other places.

Risk Capital + Knowledge + Support = a more inclusionary and global ecosystem.

That's a great thing.

I've rewritten 300+ websites for startups from pre-seed to unicorn.

Here are my top learnings 👇

Share the benefit, not the product.

Users don't care what you sell, they care about how they get value:

• Start with an action verb
• Make a bold claim
• Talk directly to your persona

Hook the users so they NEED to read on.

Turn your feature sections into narratives.

• Dig at your audience's problem
• Twist the knife at why the problem is bad
• Share your feature's solution

Make your feature sections both memorable AND relatable.

Give users a sense of FOMO (Fear Of Missing Out).

When pitching your product, make users feel like everyone else already knows about it.

• "2,194 trials started"
• "25,000+ privacy community"

Show users how easy it is to get started by handling objections.

• "Join our Beta. It's free."
• "No credit card required"
• "Cancel anytime"

Give users no excuse to NOT click through.