Some early theories on went went wrong with the pre-election polling this

Before we go into what went wrong, let's just call a spade a spade here: this was a bad polling error. It's comparable to 2016 in size, but pollsters don't have the excuses they did last time.
This year's polls would have been *way* worse than 2016 with a 2016 methodology

There are really two halves of polling: the quality of the sample you get, and the adjustments you take to improve the representativeness of your sample.
Since 2016, pollsters got better at the adjustments, but the underlying sample got worse

To my mind, the easiest way to see it: the crosstabs on white voters nationwide, particularly whites without a degree
In 2016, the polls *did* show Trump doing way better among those voters.
In 2020, they did not. And they were dead wrong.
Same story with seniors.

So what happened? How did the samples get that much worse over the last four years, especially among white voters without a degree and seniors?
At this stage, it's really just speculation. We'll know more later--it's too early for an autopsy.
But here's some early speculation

🚨THREAD🚨

Unusual turnout in Democrat-controlled areas where we have also uncovered serious allegations of fraud

President Trump performed about the same in these counties as in 2016

Yet Joe Biden's totals surged where the counting was paused and Democrats were way behind

Milwaukee County, WI

2016:
H - 288,822 (65%)
T - 126,069 (28%)

2020:
B - 317,251 (69%)
T - 134,355 (29%)

That's a 9.8% increase of ballots for Biden over Hillary

28,429 more ballots

Wayne County, MI

2016:
H - 519,444 (66%)
T - 228,993 (29%)

2020:
B - 587,074 (68%)
T - 264,149 (30%)

That's a 13.0% increase of ballots for Biden over Hillary

67,630 more ballots

Dekalb County

2016:
H - 251,370 (79%)
T - 51,468 (16%)

2020:
B - 308,102 (83%)
T - 58,361 (15%)

That's a 22% increase of ballots for Biden over Hillary

56,732 more ballots

Fulton County

2016:
H - 297,051 (67%)
T - 117,783 (26%)

2020:
B - 379,095 (72%)
T - 136,716 (26%)

That's a 27.6% increase of ballots for Biden over Hillary

82,044 more ballots

10 GAME’s RULES :

1 - Sometimes to win a girl, you have to be ready to loose her.

2 - You demonstrate higher value.

3 - You attract the girl and you create comfort.

4 - You approach girls that scare you.

good morning. i have something I’d like to talk about. a short thread. (1/)

as a freshman in college, i had a job in ministry, working with both my peers and adults. that year there was an aspirant for the order working with us. he was very kind, outgoing and funny. we became friends, and started to hang out. (2/)

by “hanging out” I mean we’d walk around campus together, late at night, alone. I was a pretty sheltered kid, born of a stoic German movement, so though this seemed weird, I thought that maybe this was just how they did things here, a notion no one disabused me of. (3/)

except for one of my dear friends, who told me that this was NOT normal, not how our brothers acted, and i should stay away from him. But she was only a couple years older than me - and surely if he was acting oddly, an adult would step in? But none ever did. (4/)

In the meantime he got into a relationship with a female employee and left the order. All fine, all good. We passed a peaceful couple of years.
And then he came back. And they were set to let him take his vows. And that female employee was acting awfully strange. (5/)

This is a memo to white folks who have gotten activated to fight for social justice over the last four years, as part of resisting the agenda of the current administration:

The work isn't over. We're glad you're here, and we need you to keep showing up.

1/x Thread.

Imagine a world in which every shooting by police of an unarmed Black person was met with the energy and urgency of the 2017 Women's March or the airport protests after the Muslim Ban was announced.

Imagine people mobilizing every time a state wanted to pass draconian abortion restrictions the way they did when the Affordable Care Act was up for a repeal in 2018.

Imagine the canvassing, the text banking, the GOTV work that has happened in 2018 and 2020 happening every single time, for every single election. Imagine what might be possible.

Imagine the outcry and passion for immigrant rights, for just immigration laws that has happened over the last few years continuing to happen, in an ongoing way, until every last person yearning to breathe free is safe.

As a woman of color & immigrant in higher education & career services - I have some pressing thoughts. Here goes:

A daughter of immigrants as Vice President. The first woman Vice President. The first Black woman Vice President. The first South Asian woman Vice President. 1/X

Of course, we must acknowledge that no candidate is perfect – President-Elect Biden is not perfect. Vice President-Elect Harris is not perfect. There is much work to be done to continue to move forward towards a more progressive and truly inclusive America. 2/X

We cannot back to a version of “normal” that actively excludes certain individuals based on their race, country of origin, immigration status, size, ability, experience with addiction, religion, sexual orientation, gender expression, and more. 3/X

However, it is critical that we, as members of the workforce, take note of a specific aspect of this election that cannot be ignored: the power of sponsorship. 4/X

I long for the day when women of color need not wait for a door of opportunity to open. However, our reality is that sponsorship is currently a critical element of workplace success – and I say this as a woman of color myself. 5/X

I decided to make “awesome election tweets” thread 🏆
1/

Warning. With remote access to e-poll books (yes, vendors have it & I’m told they pass around a url to watch), bad actors cld track in real time how many votes they need & where to alter election outcomes. This wld NOT work w/ vote by mail. 1/

I remain very concerned about e-pollbooks, which have exploded in use since 2016. A former election official told me about the Election Day remote access & URL. 2/

I wrote about America’s largest e-pollbook vendor, Knowink, here. Knowink is managed by a former Republican election official. It’s product manager is Religious Right. It’s products are in 23 states now. 3/

I was told about the passing around of a URL re: Tenex. They can watch voters sign in as they sign in. They can tell what party they are from. 4/

In theory, w/ e-pollbooks (electronic sign ins), bad actors cld fraudulently sign in real voters who rarely vote in order to pad vote totals. This wld work best at the end of Election Day. Mail voting wld obviously throw this off. 5/

Rare sappy personal thread. Four years ago today, I opened a restaurant, a dream I had had for years. Two years ago today, I closed that restaurant. I’ve just been accumulating thoughts since then, so here they are. 1/

My first thought is of my wife and sons. I regret the stress I put them through. I worked 70+ hours a week for about three years. My wife supported our family and my youngest was born just before the restaurant opened. I missed out on so many memories of his development. 2/

I got home between twelve and three o’clock any given night, and I think I can count on one hand the number of times I couldn’t answer the bell at six or six-thirty. I knew we had obligations, and we mostly met them, but meeting them took a toll on me. On my wife more than me. 3/

I never knew there was a “first year twenty.” I learned later that restaurateurs joke that you lose 20 lbs the first year opening your new place. I was lean when we started, so I wound up severely underweight. I am 6’3” and at the peak of it all I weighed just under 170 lbs. 4/

My motto in taking care of my employees was “the house always eats last.” It was a good metaphor, but I hardly ever ate. I drank. I knew the wakeup call was coming in a few hours, and I needed to decompress from the mania of the floor. 5/

Hawkins Scale of Consiousness can be a great storytelling tool.

Allow me to explain...

↓

This is David Hawkins Scale of Consciousness.

It shows the emotional expression of people as they increase their vibration and get closer to enlightenment.

Whether it is true or valid is irrelevant to out discussion here.

We’re looking at it as a tool for creating stories

↓

With great stories

EMOTION DICTATES PLOT

The emotion comes first which then tells you what events to write about.

Beginners get this backwards.

They come up with a bunch of mere events without the emotional journey.

Using the Scale of Consciousness fixes this.

↓

A HEROIC TALE

A happy story involves the story of a character moving Up the scale.

So the protagonist might start off as a timid person (Fear)
Suffer a tragedy (grief)
Tackle their demons (anger)
And stumble bc of ego (pride)
Before overcoming & being ready for life (hope)

↓

See how it works?

And this was linear for the sake of simplicity.

You can move a character up &down the scale, snakes and ladders-like to build tension.

If you reflect this is how real life journeys transpire. Two steps forward one step back.

Boring stories are too smooth

↓

The basis of this entire crisis is that Republicans are still so upset they got caught in massive amounts of criminal misconduct between 2016-2020 they will do and say anything to smear everyone else with the same accusations that led to their own tarnished reputations.

Michael Cohen, former RNC Fundraising Chair: convicted felon.

Elliot Broidy, former RNC Fundraising Chair: convicted felon.

Roger Stone, former RNC and Trump Advisor: convicted felon.

Paul Manafort, former Republican campaign manager: convicted felon.

Mist. Anfang verpasst. Hat Tim Good Morning gesagt?
ErnstgemeinteFrage. #AppleEvent

Bitte, bitte, rettet den Planeten und kauft unser Zeug! #AppleEvent

Ok, ok, hat Tim jetzt, noch, nicht gesagt. Aber ich hab da so ein Gefühl. Aber der Mac Clip war schon geil. 👍

„With Jonny“ und ich so geil, der Ive ist back, back, more back, aber nein, anderer Jonny. #appleevent

M1? Und was sagt @BMWDeutschland dazu? #appleevent

While everybody was losing their minds that @GaSecofState was meeting minimum standards of his job, I forgot to tell y’all a wild-ass story about a *different* GA Secretary of State, fighting a contested election with a whole other pack of racist honking geese!

BEN FORTSON 🍑🧵

Ben Fortson was the longest-serving SecState in GA history. TEN governors he served with (90% of whom were total shitbirds, Jimmy Carter being the reliable exception).

I’m not trying to rehab the reputations of old-timey segregationists here, but Ben Fortson was a BAMF.

I’m going to tell you a story from the late 1940’s, but the background history you need to know is this:

Georgia did not always elect a Lt. Gov, but in 1946, the state figured there ought to be a backup.

(Of note, Gov/Lt Gov are still elected independently. Not a ticket race.)

So! 1946, Georgia elects a new Governor— Eugene Talmadge. And also elected the state’s very first Lt. Gov as well; a dude named Melvin Thompson.

Talmadge was a thoroughbred shit, and I’ll hear no arguments otherwise.

He died in December 1946, before he could take office.

The legal protocol would seem clear to us today— newly-elected Lt. Gov Melvin Thompson gets sworn in as Governor, right? Easy peasy, lemon squeezy.

But this is Georgia.

So you know these chicken lip politicians are going to make it difficult difficult, lemon difficult.

To my friends who supported Biden: Your candidate won. I and many others wanted a truly progressive candidate, but we were blunted by the efforts of the corporate rulers of this party.

That said, with the election behind us (regardless of Trump and GOP's distractions by calling the election illigitimate) I am formally asking all of you to join me in a fight for a true people's agenda. No compromises.

There can be no compromise when it comes to the lives of our neighbors. I need you to join me in the fight for:

-Medicare for All, to guarantee healthcare for all ppl and stop the deaths of what medical researchers say is 68K ppl a year due to for-profit health insurance system

-A full Green New Deal, because our planet is burning and scientists say we have 8 to 9 years to stop it from getting worse. Incremental change and compromise is not recognized by the Earth.

-A massive transfer of wealth from the wealthiest Americans back to the working class through a guaranteed Universal Basic Income, retro to March of this year, as well as a liveable wage of at least $15 an hour now, not in 5 years.

Human, local, oriented, taken, and iterative, these are the change-harvester's bywords. In iterative change, we not only accept the reality of gradual stepwise refinement -- changing what we've already changed before -- we actually anticipate it and take advantage of it.

Before we begin: Folks, I know many are celebrating last week's results . I see them as one small pass towards the change I seek. Take a short break, then it's back to work?

Black lives matter.
Voting rights matter.
Women matter.

Stay safe, stay strong, stay angry, stay kind.

(And a *second* prefatory note: I've been not writing for six weeks. It was a combination of several factors, including illness, distraction, and the need to finish a gig. I'm happy to be back at content, now, but also very nervous. Bear with me while I regain my sea legs.)

With iteration, I think a great starting point for the concept is to watch just about any youtube video where a skilled artist draws a realistic rendering. What you will see almost inevitably is a direct implementation of iterative change.

The strokes begin quite broadly, faintly indicating the broad contours of the subject. Experience is relevant here: those who are most familiar with drawing that particular kind of subject, will make contours that seem "right" more quickly than those less experienced.

In 1637, the Dutch Republic erupted into a speculative fever over an unlikely item...the tulip.

Tulip Mania has become a legend synonymous with market euphoria and bubbles. But is this tale all it's cracked up to be?

Who's up for a story?

👇👇👇

1/ The tulip is a spring-blooming flower native to the valleys of the Tien Shan Mountains in Central Asia.

It is believed to have been introduced to Europe in 1554, when an ambassador of the Holy Roman Emperor sent tulip bulbs and seeds to Vienna from the Ottoman Empire.

2/ Tulips gained in popularity as people were attracted to their rich color and ability to grow in sub-optimal conditions.

They soon became a coveted status symbol for the wealthy.

The Semper Augustus, with its colorful, flame-like streaks, was the most desired of them all.

3/ By the early 1600s, the Dutch Republic was entering a golden age.

Many financial innovations popped up during this time - the first stock exchange, for example.

But it was another financial innovation that would propel tulips into historical lore: the futures contract.

4/ As tulips grow slowly and may take several years to bloom, paper contracts were written that entitled the buyer to the future tulips.

These contracts were freely-traded.

So in addition to the physical market for tulip bulbs, a thriving paper market was established.