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I'm kind of surprised I haven't seen an article in @FiveThirtyEight or somewhere similar using the Total Survey Error framework as a tool for categorizing potential sources of survey error and tests for those hypotheses as election results get finalized.
When survey researchers hear about "Shy Trump" voters, we hear it as measurement error, and there's good evidence that it's vanishingly small. But I think the broader public might also be including non-response error as part of how they understand that term
As we unpack the sources of survey error, it's worth keeping our eye on some patterns. For instance, this comparison of survey averages to projected results by @gelliottmorris shows a correlation between 2016 and 2020, but also an intercept shift
Putting out some hypotheses now that can be tested as vote counts get finalized (still not done counting!) and pollsters look back at their own data
1) Everything @davidshor says here about trust and non-response: https://t.co/aXYZMc5QO5
It's tricky to test for, because surveys aren't asking about trust and we don't have great national benchmarks either. That said ...
When survey researchers hear about "Shy Trump" voters, we hear it as measurement error, and there's good evidence that it's vanishingly small. But I think the broader public might also be including non-response error as part of how they understand that term

As we unpack the sources of survey error, it's worth keeping our eye on some patterns. For instance, this comparison of survey averages to projected results by @gelliottmorris shows a correlation between 2016 and 2020, but also an intercept shift

Putting out some hypotheses now that can be tested as vote counts get finalized (still not done counting!) and pollsters look back at their own data
1) Everything @davidshor says here about trust and non-response: https://t.co/aXYZMc5QO5
It's tricky to test for, because surveys aren't asking about trust and we don't have great national benchmarks either. That said ...
In honor of #VeteransDay2020 and to my fellow Native American Veterans, here a #thread of my photos I've taken as a journalist.
I am proud to be a Native Veteran.
And to all of the veterans out there, thank you for your service.
#HappyVeteransDay
#HappyVeteransDay2020
In honor of #VeteransDay2020 and to my fellow Native American Veterans, here a #thread of my photos I've taken as a journalist.
I am proud to be a Native Veteran.
And to all of the veterans out there, thank you for your service.
#HappyVeteransDay
#HappyVeteransDay2020
In honor of #VeteransDay2020 and to my fellow Native American Veterans, here a #thread of my photos I've taken as a journalist.
I am proud to be a Native Veteran.
And to all of the veterans out there, thank you for your service.
#HappyVeteransDay
#HappyVeteransDay2020
https://t.co/xNC3fd9ciA
In honor of #VeteransDay2020 and to my fellow Native American Veterans, here a #thread of my photos I've taken as a journalist.
I am proud to be a Native Veteran.
And to all of the veterans out there, thank you for your service.
#HappyVeteransDay
#HappyVeteransDay2020
I am proud to be a Native Veteran.
And to all of the veterans out there, thank you for your service.
#HappyVeteransDay
#HappyVeteransDay2020

In honor of #VeteransDay2020 and to my fellow Native American Veterans, here a #thread of my photos I've taken as a journalist.
I am proud to be a Native Veteran.
And to all of the veterans out there, thank you for your service.
#HappyVeteransDay
#HappyVeteransDay2020

In honor of #VeteransDay2020 and to my fellow Native American Veterans, here a #thread of my photos I've taken as a journalist.
I am proud to be a Native Veteran.
And to all of the veterans out there, thank you for your service.
#HappyVeteransDay
#HappyVeteransDay2020

https://t.co/xNC3fd9ciA

In honor of #VeteransDay2020 and to my fellow Native American Veterans, here a #thread of my photos I've taken as a journalist.
I am proud to be a Native Veteran.
And to all of the veterans out there, thank you for your service.
#HappyVeteransDay
#HappyVeteransDay2020

đđžBut I see that we are, to a great extent, producing a self-collapsing Christianity, insofar as our converts are told that the only important thing to do is to win more converts. Itâs like getting the people into the armed forces, and they ask what they are supposed to do. 1/
Oh well, you are supposed to recruit.â Then they recruit more and more people, and set them also to recruiting still other people. Some day someone says, âArenât we supposed to be fighting a war?â âOh yeah, thereâs a war.â ... 2/
Church Mission-which is absolutely basic & absolutely valid-is to extend the faith & transform people into reliable people of integrity. Kingdom Mission is when the church stops thinking abt itself & its members & pursues Godâs will in this world, not just pursues more members.3/
In his book Church Shift, Sunday Adelaja, the pastor of the largest church in Europe, says that when members do things like help in the nursery and direct traffic on Sunday, thatâs not mission. Itâs church housekeeping. đ 4/
The church exists to extend the glory of God & His will in society whether or not it makes advances in church membership. Many are leaving the church today because what secular people are doing is more exciting, more relevant, concrete, & may seem to be more Biblically valid. 5/
\U0001f92fRalph D. Winter has written the best short explanation of the 2020 polarization within Calvinist & conservative circles over CRT, race, Marxism, etc. If you want to know why many blacks who were involved in the TGC world in '05 no longer are, read this! https://t.co/PvrzxzLjUr
— Anthony B. Bradley (@drantbradley) November 9, 2020
Oh well, you are supposed to recruit.â Then they recruit more and more people, and set them also to recruiting still other people. Some day someone says, âArenât we supposed to be fighting a war?â âOh yeah, thereâs a war.â ... 2/
Church Mission-which is absolutely basic & absolutely valid-is to extend the faith & transform people into reliable people of integrity. Kingdom Mission is when the church stops thinking abt itself & its members & pursues Godâs will in this world, not just pursues more members.3/
In his book Church Shift, Sunday Adelaja, the pastor of the largest church in Europe, says that when members do things like help in the nursery and direct traffic on Sunday, thatâs not mission. Itâs church housekeeping. đ 4/
The church exists to extend the glory of God & His will in society whether or not it makes advances in church membership. Many are leaving the church today because what secular people are doing is more exciting, more relevant, concrete, & may seem to be more Biblically valid. 5/