For fun I made a Robinhood account. It took me 5 minutes to sign up, get approved and transfer funds for trading...

Here's some details... Read on.

...it took me another 5 minutes to get qualified for options.

If I share a sign up I get "free shares" and I can share as much as I want up to 500$ worth.

The main UI has a prepopulated "list" of stocks/crypto to watch and links to news.

Clicking a stock opens a "trade" button that looks like this.

Notice options is first, buy second.

Options took me to an approval process (which took about a minute) and now away I go trading Baba options.

Buying stock looks like this. It emphasizes fractional shares.

My number 1 stock pick for 2021 is: Pine Island Acquisition Corp.

$PIPP

Let me break down why I think this will be THE SPAC of 2021. 👇

TL:DR – the management team is loaded with President Biden’s closest friends and advisors. No other SPAC has this level of access.

$PIPP company overview:

-focused on defense, government service & aerospace
-perfect focus when you consider who is on their Management Team

$PIPP Management

-here's where it gets EXCITING
-founded by John Thain (ex Merrill Lynch CEO and Uber director)
-then STACKED with veteran Government and Administration key figures

$PIPP Insane Management Connections

-the list of PIPP "DC Partners" includes:

-- President Biden's pick for Secretary of State (Tony Blinken)
-- President Biden's pick for Secretary of Defense (Gen. Lloyd Austin).

$PIPP - The Joe Biden Connection

- Tony Blinken and President Biden are close allies.
- Blinken has been an advisor to Biden for decades
- Blinken set to be appointed Sec. of State

A thread on SCALING IN - OUT METHOD -

What is scaling in - out?

1. Scaling in is adding on to the positions when they move in our favor (Pyramiding).

2. Scaling - out is exiting the portion of the position when the trade moves in our favor.

I have explained about pyramiding in previous tweets.

// Why use scaling out instead of exiting all position at once ?

When you are using ALL - out method where you exit positions at once, mostly you use wider Trail SL as you want to capture big moves and exit all when trail sl hits.

The problem with this method is that either you make too big or many times your medium size winners turns out to become Scratch trades.

So, when we use the scaling out method, we are trying to capture most of our medium size trades , so that they do not turn into scratch trades.

// How to use scaling out method -

Say we have to got a signal to enter in a trade, and we have to buy 1200 qty according to our Position sizing.

So, we have to divide this 1200 qty into parts, how much? It depends on you.

We can divide into 3 parts, each part 400 qty.

FINDING EDGE IN OPTIONS

24/08/15: Nifty gap down 250 points & another 250 after that. Previous few months return gone, but since I'm quick to take my losses, was saved from ruin. Before that my only edge in option selling was adjustments & my forever edge of following PA. (1/n)

I soon realised that theta decay with sound adjustments is not an edge, which i earlier thought was & which gave me good returns over the years. After that i went deeper in understanding volatility behaviour, how/where it manifests & all the discrepancies in option chain. (2/n)

With finding edge in logistics i mean how to keep the greeks in check, SL in place & optimum ways of adjustments with minimum slippages. So the main aim here is to write theta without following vol behaviour & having any actual knowledge of what's going on in the markets. (3/n)

A dedicated trader can learn all this in few years & it is something which is 'obvious' to become successful. But majority can't reach this level, as this also requires consistent hustle in live markets. All the seminar/webinar business teaches you till this level only.(4/n)

If you get passed this level though, the real work starts, when you have to find your real edge. This can't be taught in a webinar. It needs serious introspection of your trading skills, psychology & strategies in use, which ultimately allow you to book excellent profits. (5/n)

A thread on Trend-lines

// What are trend-lines?

Trend-lines are support and resistance lines which are formed by connecting Important swing points.

The beauty of using them is that We can use them when stock is not Respecting the Horizontal S&R zones, they can indicate us when the trend may change.

// Things To consider while Making trendlines?

• A trendline formed by using 3 Major-Swing points is a potential trendline, But we will also use 2 points to form a trendline, will discuss how, as you read further.

• Trendline can be formed by two ways-

1. Wicks-

In this method we only connect the wicks to make a trendline, this is a precise way of making a trendline.

// Why only connect the wicks?

There are two type of levels - Precise and Less precise (Which we call zones).

So what we are doing is by only connecting the wicks we are making a precise level where we can take trades, either Mean reversion or Breakout trades.

Examples-

Here's how the UK's situation will change after the transition period ends, compared to our former EU membership...

(Come back to this thread. It will keep growing!)

- UK can negotiate its own trade deals
- No more automatic participation in new trade deals reached by the EU

- UK gets to keep fish equivalent to 25% of the catch EU boats previously caught in UK waters, staggered over 5.5 years
- Costly export health certificates for fishery products
- Inbound and outbound customs and regulatory checks (UK side will defer some of these temporarily)

- Stringent rules of origin and local content requirements
- Loss of freedom of movement for UK citizens in the EU and EU citizens in the UK (Ireland excepted)
- No Erasmus programme
- No equivalence decision for financial services

- A border down the Irish sea between NI & GB
- No access to the Galileo military
- Temporary agreement on data, which expires in 6 months
- 2 parallel trademark systems, requiring firms to file twice in the UK and the EU

- 2 parallel product conformity assessment systems (CE and UKCA), requiring firms to file twice in the UK and the EU. One year grace period (with exceptions).
- 2 parallel chemical regulatory systems (REACH and UK REACH), requiring firms to register twice in the UK and the EU

THREAD ON DELTA (The most important GREEK)

Many traders don't indulge in understanding GREEKS because they think they are very complicated.

There are 4 primary greeks:

Delta
Gamma
Theta
Vega

In my experience, understanding DELTA is enough to take benefit of greeks.(1/n)

Delta measures the rate of change of options price based on the directional movement of the underlying.

So this means we can know in advance (theoretically) how much an option will move with the underlying & so we can prepare our strategies accordingly. (2/n)

Value of delta varies between 0 & 1 for calls and -1 & 0 for puts. This figure tells how much an option price will change, when the underlying moves 1 point. So example a delta of .2 of call indicates that for every 1 point change in the underlying, the price will move .2 (3/n)

For option writers who want to trade in neutral strategies like straddle, strangle, ratios, calendar etc, delta can be very helpful. So be it any complex strategy, knowing the NET DELTA can give you an idea of how your strategy will perform in different scenarios. (4/n)

Net delta is just the sum of the deltas of all the bull options (call+ & put-) minus the bear options (call- & put+).

So if we can track this, we will always be in the know of how much exposed our position is. It makes it easier then to adjust our position. (5/n)

Circle of Competence 101

Warren Buffett and Charlie Munger often reference the importance of knowing the boundaries of your circle of competence.

But what is a Circle of Competence and how does it work?

Here's Circle of Competence 101!

1/ First, a few definitions.

A Circle of Competence is the set of topic areas that align with a person's expertise.

If the entire world of information were to be expressed in a circle, an individual's Circle of Competence is the small sub-circle that represents their expertise.

2/ The idea surfaced in the 1996 BH annual letter.

"You don’t have to be an expert on every company...you only have to be able to evaluate companies within your circle of competence. The size of that circle is not very important; knowing its boundaries, however, is vital."

3/ A Circle of Competence is built over time.

It is built through experience, reading, dedicated study, and effort.

It is dynamic, not static.

It can expand as you deepen your knowledge in new areas. It can contract if you fail to nurture your existing areas of expertise.

4/ To engage this mental model in your life, there are two key processes to go through:

(1) Identify what falls within your circle
(2) Identify the boundaries of your circle

(1) is all about figuring out what you know, while (2) is about humbly admitting what you don’t.

So..had a great conversation last night with older investment types, old friends whom I traded with/against and managed money against or for. Age diff from me is > 10+ years so the takes were interesting but the common theme was a little disturbing (depends on your view)

Was looking at the landscape of the world & quite concerned where we are (I do not share your optimism for a shinny happy future). I am a Bond guy + Cycles & my view approach is ALWAYS what is the worst that can happen (that is how I was taught to trade & manage money) As a Bond

Money manager you never every want to apologize for a negative year, most people don't understand bonds can lose lots and lots and lots of money. So my view on life is always negative & fuck you approach.

The others are similar but have more equity exposure and FX, one other is really good via commodities so the conversation was from a top down look with some bottom up approaches. So.....after looking at the notes of the great conversation this is how it looked:

basically the world changed 2007/2008 especially North America. The GFC set in motion financial engineering games and here we are. The issues pre this (2000 to 2007) set ALL this up so lots of blame to go around but to pin point certain things the real problems started with QE &

𝗧𝗛𝗘 𝗢𝗣𝗧𝗜𝗢𝗡𝗦 𝗧𝗛𝗥𝗘𝗔𝗗-𝟮
So we had discussed a few pointers in the previous thread about options,its time now we discuss further implications and applicability in this thread which will help you in NEW YEAR.
Let’s go and dive into the world of options trading.

-The amount of decay can be measured by theta. This is why you can be right on stock price direction and still lose money. The time decay portion of the option price overpowers the directional move in the underlying stock price.

-During result days due to the heightened uncertainty, there is opportunity for options sellers because of the expensive premium. When entering into an earnings trade, it is optimal to initiate the trade as close in time to the event as possible.

-Keep some cash on sidelines. This would help in adjustments,margin expansion,face losses and also during new opportunities which suddenly arise. A lot of people do the mistake of going all in and regretting later.

-Everything in trading has a trade off.

Unlimited profit comes at the expense of low probability of profit. Give up some profit potential, and you gain a higher probability of profit.
-By using portfolio beta weighted delta, you can accurately gauge your overall portfolio risk. If your portfolio is leaning too far in..

@RaoulGMI Good Morning! You asked what is happening to #Gold and #Silver. This is my take - a summary of the governing Thesis on https://t.co/1Cy03QuMgb for a long time! Hope you can use the input! 🙋‍♂️🙂

Since ~2000 we have been in Kondratiev's Winter. A period where GLOBAL DEBT causes low and falling growth rates. Central banks try to counter this by printing money (Monetary Stimulus). However, Deflationary forces from debt causes deflations to unfold - despite extreme measures

To the frustration of Central Banks, they cannot create inflation despite extreme money printing. They stimulate by infusing money into the system but cannot make the money circulate. Velocity drops dramatically. What they miss...You cannot solve a solvency problem with Liquidity

Despite Central banks efforts (especially since 2008), the above creates a DEFLATIONARY ENVIRONMENT! This can be observed across #COMMODITIES. Declining despite Money Printing...?! Now - nothing lasts forever.... and suddenly we will see the KETHCUP effect of their rogue actions

#Commodities give the major picture of where we are in the INFLATION-DEFLATION cycle! We are close to bottom (of Ending Diagonal) but not there yet! ONE MORE DEFLATIONARY BUST before MAJOR SECULAR BOTTOM! Why BUST....? Because of #Covid19 2nd wave!

THREAD Thoughts on Software I don’t post on individual names I own professionally unless they are > $100bn in market cap. This means I rarely post about individual software names so I thought I’d post about software as a whole.

While some investors love software because of the recurring nature of the revenues, stickiness of the contracts, and high gross margins, what I look for in a software company is the same thing I look for in every company: 1) growth trajectory and 2) eventual earnings power.

I am willing to pay 20+X revenue for a company that is currently unprofitable if I think the revenue base will eventually be many multiples of what it is today and operating margins somewhere in the 20-40% range Long Term.

Internet vs. Software Investors
I’ve been on the buyside for ~3yrs. Prior to that I was on the SS covering Internet. I did other things before this. It is my belief that in general, few software investor will ever know their names/space as well as an internet investor does.

The knowledge barrier to pick up a GRUB or Z just isn’t the same as Kubernetes or anything DevOps. Instead of building 1,000+ row rev tabs like I used to covering Internet (which I think are better for just learning the biz and true drivers rather than modeling precision),

After running an investment property for 5 years at an average return of 24.6% per year. Here are my 7 guidelines to increasing the probability of success in an investment property business. [Thread]

1. Don't pay transfer duties. Buying anything under R1m or buying into a development means that you will not incur transfer duties. This fee is something to try avoid as it will significantly damage your returns. The under R1m market is more liquid and in higher demand anyway.

2. Buying a brand spanking new place has meant that I have had no major maintenance costs in the past 5 years. I can mention all things I’ve had to fix in the past 5 years: one door handle, minor paint work, one loose tap and a few hair line tile cracks.

3. The less space under your responsibility the easier to manage. I don’t worry about gardens or geysers. The place uses a central heating system supplying water to six units. Insurance for this is covered in my levies. It's also more energy efficient = reduced electricity bills.

4. Would you want to live there? Put yourself in a potential tenant’s shoes, if what you're offering is attractive, well priced, safe and comfortable you won’t have a problem attracting suitable tenants. If you aren’t confident that you can offer this, then don’t buy the place.

Are you planning on handing over your money to an algo trading platform?

Maybe you want to subscribe to a strategy or two and make insane returns.

Here's why you shouldn't do it, and save your money instead.

1/ Maybe you want to have a strategy development company deploy such algorithms on your account with respective brokers.

Or the service itself has strategies that you just subscribe to and authorize your trading account with, and it will automatically trade your money.

2/ When it comes to @Tradetron1 there are a slew of issues.

Let's keep aside the lack of transparency and the total regulatory non-compliance for a moment.

First off, with most of the strategies, the backtests are BOGUS.

3/ Any systematic trader with even a little bit of experience will look at the strategies and tell you which ones are baloney.

Most of them are.

Don't take my word for it. Do your own due diligence.

And, those backtests aren't even for 10+ yrs. Some were done only for months.

4/ Secondly, SEBI has put rules in place on parameters like

- minimum net worth of the company
- qualifications of the fund manager
- minimum number of clients
- minimum amount to start with

and so on, for qualifying people who want to manage other people's money.

Circle of Competence 101:

@SahilBloom x @jackbutcher

↓

1/

A Circle of Competence is the set of topic areas that align with a person's expertise.

If the entire world of information were to be expressed in a circle, an individual's Circle of Competence is the small sub-circle that represents their expertise.

2/

The idea surfaced in the 1996 BH annual letter.

"You don’t have to be an expert on every company...you only have to be able to evaluate companies within your circle of competence. The size of that circle is not very important; knowing its boundaries, however, is vital."

3/

A Circle of Competence is built over time.

It is built through experience, reading, dedicated study, and effort.

It is dynamic, not static.

It can expand as you deepen your knowledge in new areas. It can contract if you fail to nurture your existing areas of expertise.

4/

To engage this mental model in your life, there are two key processes to go through:

(1) Identify what falls within your circle
(2) Identify the boundaries of your circle

(1) is all about figuring out what you know, while (2) is about humbly admitting what you don’t.

"The Millennial Consumer Index" - My picks for a DJIA style 30 stock Index with Co.'s that best serve that demographic.

Fellow Millennials, What would be some of your picks?😀
@richard_chu97 @saxena_puru @FromValue @TMFJMo @dhaval_kotecha @adventuresinfi @reshoftc @BrianFeroldi

My criteria & list is
✔️US Consumer centric
✔️No B2B stuff (unless end-user uses it for non-Business reasons also)

This is just a Fun-Friday exercise. So don't take it too seriously and ask me why your fav co isn't there. Just add yours in the comments. 😂

Picks ⬇️⬇️
E-Commerce : $AMZN $ETSY $W $LULU $CHWY
Entertainment : $GOOG $NFLX $SPOT $ROKU
Social : $FB $SNAP $PINS
Finance : $SQ $PYPL $LMND
Food/Beverage : $CMG $SBUX $DPZ $CELH
Online Services : $MTCH $ZM $DOCU $TDOC $RDFN $FVRR
Life style : $AAPL $TSLA $PTON $ABNB $UBER

Let's keep aside the discussions about recent hype or over-valuations for any of these Co's.

This thread is about which Companies (in my Portfolio/Watchlist/Universe) are doing an awesome job of serving/engaging the Millennial Consumers (in US).

The intersection of Technology, Demographic, and Consumer (behavior) trends are incredibly powerful.⚡️

We often over-estimate what can happen in the short-term (hype) and under-estimate what can happen in 1-2 decades (strong trends).