BC TRADING
Saved by @CodyyyGardner

0/ [RESEARCH RECAP PUBLIC RELEASE]

First, a huge thank you to everyone who's supported the Delphi team this past year!

As a small token of appreciation, we’re releasing a special edition report covering some of our best work recently!

TLDR thread

 1/ Bitcoin is King of the Hill…Again

@Kevin_Kelly_II illustrates why #bitcoin can no longer be ignored by investment managers on the back of its 2nd consecutive year outperforming just about every major asset class.

https://t.co/aR8iwhbgnD
2/ The Bitcoin Bull Case: 2021 & Beyond

@mediodelphi's rigorous on-chain analysis paints the ideal setup for BTC while @Kevin_Kelly_II reaffirms several technical & macro tailwinds heading into 2021.

$BTC is up ~70% since the report was first published.
https://t.co/uu1Hdx2Zi9
3/ 'Tis the Season

@mediodelphi examines seasonality and foreshadows $ETH outperformance heading into early 2021.

Return since publish (12/23):
🔸ETH = 79%
🔸BTC = 38%
https://t.co/uUu7jM9PxZ
4/ #Ethereum Ecosystem Analysis & ETH 2.0

@Alex_Ged's marquee monthly deep dive into all things ETH.

$ETH began heating up in late Nov. as holders refused to sell & the amount held by centralized exchanges fell ~15%.

A staple report for us internally.
https://t.co/vVvnO2Y2MV
5/ As this market matures, institutions & traditional investors will begin to wade into DeFi.

Pros: strong project teams will attract more capital, harnessing the potential of DeFi.

Cons: greater congestion = higher gas prices.
The savior from this new norm? L2 solutions.
6/ Layer 2: Rollups

@Alex_Ged takes a 28-page deep dive into L2 solutions and provides a comparative analysis for each.

While L2 adoption is far from mainstream, it's important to understand the best potential solutions for various projects.
https://t.co/9LyLVrgG4P
7/ Polkadot’s DeFi Stack

@ashwath_22 examines @Polkadot's focus on scalability & connectivity as a layer 0 protocol and the network’s attempt to recreate similar functionality to Ethereum’s DeFi ecosystem.

This was one of our most read reports of Q4.
https://t.co/GKodsLC0LU
8/ If you’re a fan of @AaveAave then you’ll enjoy @ZeMariaMacedo's back-to-back reports on $AAVE token economic structure and proposed enhancements.

The first reviews Aave's current model and how it can be further optimized (11/10/20).
https://t.co/nacxoeeWck
9/ Aave Token Architecture v2

Capital protection is paramount & the core focus of the 2nd report.

Aided by @JonathanErlichL, our team breaks down the strengths & drawbacks of Aave’s Safety Module, which underwrites all risks for protocol participants.
https://t.co/Hz3lzSXWQD
10/ A Look Into Public DeFi Treasuries

When researching any token, it’s important to fully understand the project’s issuance schedule and treasury management

@ashwath_22 explores the treasury models of major projects & their potential impact on price.
https://t.co/sX2MdI7MVK
11/ @iearnfinance didn’t have the luxury of pre-funding a treasury and because the token is fully issued, $YFI adopted a new fee structure with the hopes of using the protocol’s cash flow to attract skilled strategy creators.
12/ On the other hand, @synthetix_io is not fully diluted and is benefiting from the recent $SNX price run up.

With close to 20% of the total $SNX supply, the DAO can generate passive income via trading fees on the protocol paid to stakers, on top of SNX staking rewards.
13/ Meanwhile, @thorchain_org / $RUNE is using its treasury for the sole purpose of funding of its ongoing development.

The model is straightforward and the team doesn’t intend on having a long-lasting treasury, with plans to become obsolete in mid-2022.
14/ Now for DeFi’s golden child: @UniswapProtocol.

As of now, 43% of $UNI supply is vested to its treasury over 4 years. With both $UNI vesting and the free cash flow levels, this protocol may be the best funded treasury around.

Our recap includes 3 possible scenarios:
15/ @iearnfinance was the first major protocol to merge with not one but two DeFi protocols.

Read @ashwath_22's take on the $Pickle acquisition in late November, a relevant topic for those expecting more protocol M&A.
https://t.co/d2iRPoXrwj
16/ The Great yBundling (YFI)

@Shaughnessy119 dissects The Great Unbundling (s/o @benthompson) and the implications for $YFI's moat & value proposition.

One of our most popular Delphi Daily's.
https://t.co/MTglMNVNgq
18/ Public Goods Problem

There are things we all agree we want but remain underfunded. In “Coordination, Public Goods and Crypto (Parts 1 & 2)” @ZeMariaMacedo explores how crypto may be able to solve this problem.
https://t.co/JwRYAFicN2
19/ Jose also provided a great framework for thinking about the broader picture of crypto investing alongside some of the key considerations unique to this market.

Through his exploration, he highlights why insurance might still be undervalued.
https://t.co/Pn6WiV6GsG
20/ The Graph: Our Experience Creating a Subgraph for $ESD

@lukedelphi walks through the subgraph he and our team built for @emptysetdollar using @graphprotocol.

Also includes a step-by-step guide for those more technically inclined!
https://t.co/kSxmbk3jzv
21/ We round out the research recap with a selection of @PodcastDelphi highlights & complimentary access to several FULL length Delphi Daily’s!

To receive our free weekly Delphi Debrief, sign up at → https://t.co/uu9A2zs72k

More from Trading

Gene Kim
Gene Kim
@RealGeneKim
Many of you have seen the famous Westrum Organizational Typology model, so prominently featured in State of DevOps Research, Accelerate, DevOps Handbook, etc.

This model was created Dr. Ron Westrum, a widely-cited sociologist who studied the impact of culture on safety


Thanks to Dr. @nicolefv, I was able to interview him for an upcoming episode of the Idealcast! 🤯

It was a very heady experience, and while preparing to interview him, I was startled to discover how much work he's done in healthcare, aviation, spaceflight, but also innovation.

I've read 4+ of his papers, so I thought I was familiar with his work. (Here's one paper: https://t.co/7X00O67VgS)

I was startled to learn he has also studied in depth what enables innovation. He wrote a wonderful book "Sidewinder: Creative Missile Development at China Lake"


Dr. Westrum writes about China Lake Research Labs: "its design and structure had one purpose: to foster technical creativity. It did; China Lake operated far outside the normal envelope... Sidewinder & others were "impossible" accomplishments,

I love this book because it describes traits of organizations that routinely create and maintain greatness: US space program (Mercury, Gemini, Apollo), US Naval Reactors, Toyota, Team of Teams, Tesla, the tech giants (Amazon, Google, Netflix, Google)
TRADING
Aaron D.
Aaron D.
@MrBrownEyes2020
So what will be the aftermath of this GME event?

These are simply my guesses, I don't actually know.

Wallstreet will likely push for licenses being necessary to trade, or put more limits on how many trades you can make, or some other way to screw the average person trading. 1/

FYI, you can only make 4 trades in a day, but if you have more than $25,000 in your account you can make as many as you want.

The system is rigged against the poor, and weighted heavily in favour of the rich. 2/

Will the government shut down the market?

It's possible, but I doubt it.
It would open up new precedents and the optics would be terrible- i.e. shutting down the market because greedy hedgefunds fucked up, and normal people are taking them to the cleaners. 3/

If the government gives in to Wallstreet, they lose all credibility, because this story is basically David vs Goliath, where the Reddit guys are the good guys, and the hedgefunds are the bad guys.

4/

Likely they will implement similar rules to Europe, that stops naked short selling.

Anything more than that, I'm not sure.
I think the media will push the threat of the government shutting down trading, in order to scare people into selling, to give short sellers a way out. 5/
TRADING
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Trader knight
Trader knight
@Traderknight007
Three things which will make a difference in Your trading Results.

A thread-


1. Clarity- When the mind is free from fear and ego

The first step to successful trading is to be clear about everything you do.

BUT, the reality is that most traders don't even know what they are doing.

And because of this-

They don't have any goals.
They don't have any Trading plan
They don't know what is suitable for them
And the list goes, on and on.

If you are among the people as described above, don't worry, There is nothing wrong with you, almost 90% of Traders are like that.

So, what do you have to do to get CLARITY in your Trading-

Find one style that is suitable to your personality and double down on it.

Why?


In this world where we have plethora of information just one click away, most people are distracted and see a Glowy thing every time they go over the social media.

They Find something new every now and then, jumping from one strategy to another, searching for Holy grail.
TRADING , ALL
Gurjot Ahluwalia
Gurjot Ahluwalia
@gurjota
I analyzed 25+ years of #Nifty data to better understand bear markets 🐻

Why?

Given the recent market sell-off and bearish stance of market participants, history and data is your best guide to prepare if we're headed for a bear market.

Thread with findings below 🧵👇
1/n


But first, do you know the definition of a bear market?

When any index falls 20% or more from it's all time high, it is termed to be in a #bearmarket 🐻

How do you calculate length of a bear market? The time duration in days from previous all-time high to market bottom.

2/n


🇮🇳 Nifty last 25 years (1997-2022*)

Number of Bear Markets = 8

Average drawdown % = -38.5%

Average bear market duration = 246 days (8 m)

Key takeaway - Bear markets occur every ~3 years and take on average 8 months to bottom

3/n


1997 and 2006 saw the fastest bear markets with Nifty correcting 20-30% in just ~1 month.

Unbelievably, 1997 had 2 bear markets! Just imagine suffering 20% drawdowns twice in a few months!

Mar 2020 Covid crash was the 3rd fastest and 3rd worst bear market.

4/n


Okay, how should we define Bear Market Recovery?

The no of days from market bottom to a new all-time high.

Sadly, bear markets take time to recover.

Almost double the time to recover to a new ATH compared to the time to form a bottom.

Avg recovery duration – 495 days

5/n
TRADING , BULL AND BEAR MARKET
Robot James
Robot James
@therobotjames
In my 20 years of trading I have noticed this cycle play out again and again with traders that "make it":

1. Overconfidently reach for returns
2. Get humbled by the market
3. Simplify + concentrate on clear, high probability edges.

1/n

Nearly everyone starts with a lack of respect for how hard it is to consistently make money trading.

That leads them to pass over high-probability sources of returns in favor of more marginal ideas.

Or they overcomplicate the trading of a good edge.

2/n

Here's an example...

It is 2015. You look at a simple strategy.

You hold an equal dollar exposure to:
- Cap Weighted US Stocks (VTI)
- 20+ Yr US Treasury Bonds (TLT)
- Gold (GLD)

And rebalance each month.

(I've extended back a bit with mutual fund prices.)

3/n


It made money consistently with a few blips.

You'd have 4x your money from 1997 to 2015.

It makes sense. It's harnessing two big sources of risk premia (equity + duration).

It diversifies across 3 macro assets that tend to outperform in different econ environments

4/n

But, naturally, you turn your mind to how you could do better...

And here is where it gets dangerous!

There are good ways to try to "do better", and there are bad ways to try to "do better".

5/n
TRADING

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Ryan Caldbeck
Ryan Caldbeck
@ryan_caldbeck
1/ I am seeing more and more founder secondary in venture rounds (Secondary = founders selling some of their shares before some other shareholders are able). Series B-D. I see both as an investor and through entrepreneur circles.

2/ I like secondary for entrepreneurs. Moderation is key but in a lot of situations I think it helps accelerate the co. Lots of very smart investors disagree. Here are my thoughts.

3/ Magnitude: My basic rule of thumb from what I see is market is 4+ yrs and up to 10% of founder’s equity stake with some $ cap that makes sense given stage etc. (typically <$10m)

4/ The entrepreneurial journey is brutally hard. Giving some financial relief helps remove one piece of pressure. I don’t think that secondary in the magnitude mentioned impacts the drive/persistence of great entrepreneurs.

5/ That secondary means they will be able to just sleep knowing they can pay their kids’ tuition. Secondary will make most founders better at their jobs, thus accelerating the co.
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Filippo Valsorda
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“We don’t negotiate salaries” is a negotiation tactic.

Always. No, your company is not an exception.

A tactic I don’t appreciate at all because of how unfairly it penalizes low-leverage, junior employees, and those loyal enough not to question it, but that’s negotiation for you after all. Weaponized information asymmetry.

Listen to Aditya


And by the way, you should never be worried that an offer would be withdrawn if you politely negotiate.

I have seen this happen *extremely* rarely, mostly to women, and anyway is a giant red flag. It suggests you probably didn’t want to work there.

You wish there was no negotiating so it would all be more fair? I feel you, but it’s not happening.

Instead, negotiate hard, use your privilege, and then go and share numbers with your underrepresented and underpaid colleagues. […]
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Khatvaanga
Khatvaanga
@khatvaanga
Sri Gurubhyo Namaha.


After the phenomenon called Sri Chandrasekhara Bharati came another one - Sri Abhinava Vidya Teertha [1954-1989] the 35th Jagadguru. Srinivasa was born on Nov 13, 1917. He was initiated into Sanyasa by Sri Chandrasekhara Bharati in 1931. He was Jagadguru for 35 years.

He was chosen and specifically trained to take over Peetadhipatyam from Sri Mahaswami. He is majorly responsible for the way Sringeri currently is. He built various buildings for devotees, Gajashala, Gooshala etc.

Acharya on conversions:
Once a person approached Sri Acharya that some other religions are trying to convert Hindus and requested Sri AVT to do prevent these conversions.

AVT replied - what do u mean by religion? Religion i.e. mata is related to 'mati' or intellect.
Caste is called 'jAti' which is related to janana or birth.
Ex- breed of a cow. we cannot change its qualities to resemble another breed by changing its name.
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V\u0936\u0941\u0926\u094d\u0927\u093f
Vशुद्धि...
@V_Shuddhi
क्या आप जानते हैं कि क्या है, पितृ पक्ष में कौवे को खाना देने के पीछे का वैज्ञानिक कारण!

श्राद्ध पक्ष में कौओं का बड़ा ही महत्व है। कहते है कौआ यम का प्रतीक है, यदि आपके हाथों दिया गया भोजन ग्रहण कर ले, तो ऐसा माना जाता है कि पितरों की कृपा आपके ऊपर है और वे आपसे ख़ुश है।


कुछ लोग कहते हैं की व्यक्ति मरकर सबसे पहले कौवे के रूप में जन्म लेता है और उसे खाना खिलाने से वह भोजन पितरों को मिलता है

शायद हम सबने अपने घर के किसी बड़े बुज़ुर्ग, किसी पंडित या ज्योतिषाचार्य से ये सुना होगा। वे अनगिनत किस्से सुनाएंगे, कहेंगे बड़े बुज़ुर्ग कह गए इसीलिए ऐसा करना

शायद ही हमें कोई इसके पीछे का वैज्ञानिक कारण बता सके।

हमारे ऋषि मुनि और पौराणिक काल में रहने वाले लोग मुर्ख नहीं थे! कभी सोचियेगा कौवों को पितृ पक्ष में खिलाई खीर हमारे पूर्वजों तक कैसे पहुंचेगी?

हमारे ऋषि मुनि विद्वान थे, वे जो बात करते या कहते थे उसके पीछे कोई न कोई वैज्ञानिक कारण छुपा होता था।

एक बहुत रोचक तथ्य है पितृ पक्ष, भादो( भाद्रपद) प्रकृति और काक के बीच।

एक बात जो कह सकते कि हम सब ने स्वतः उग आये पीपल या बरगद का पेड़/ पौधा किसी न किसी दीवार, पुरानी

इमारत, पर्वत या अट्टालिकाओं पर ज़रूर देखा होगा। देखा है न?

ज़रा सोचिये पीपल या बरगद की बीज कैसे पहुंचे होंगे वहाँ तक? इनके बीज इतने हल्के भी नहीं होते के हवा उन्हें उड़ाके ले जा सके।
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Chuck Wendig
Chuck Wendig
@ChuckWendig
TRUMP: "I've decided to eat babies."

PEOPLE: "He can't eat babies, that's super illegal."

TRUMP, on TV, eating babies, not even cooking them first: "People are saying that I really am the best baby-eater, folks."

NYT: "Trump Vs. Babies: The Rhetoric On Both Sides Must Stop"

Jeff Flake tweets: "It is a sad day in America when this callous man can eat babies live on TV"

Jeff Flake, 10 seconds later, votes to help him install a series of 4,000 new judges that are very, very pro-babyphagia.

Judge Kavanaugh, found drunk in a Capitol Hill closet: "I LIKE BEER. OKAY? I LIKE BEER AND I LIKE BABIES AND THAT'S NOT SO WRONG. THAT'S RIGHT. I LIKE BABIES DIPPED IN BEER. I JUST DIP EM. IN THE BEER. THE BABIES. THE BABIES I EAT. OKAY? THAT'S AMERICA."

Mike Pence, wringing his hands about the baby-eating: "We must take care of our children. Our youngest must be protected on this troubling day."

Mike Pence then invites a Baby Chef to say a prayer.

Twitter Users: "It's a distraction technique! Trump eating babies is trying to DISTRACT YOU from ALL THE OTHER HORRORS, which are themselves distractions from the BABY-EATING. It's DISTRACTIONS ALL THE WAY DOWN."

Trump: *eats tons of babies at a rally*

*literal tons of babies*
POLITICS


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