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NHS beds, an explainer


Under normal circumstances, most NHS acute hospitals will have several types of inpatient areas

1. Assessment unit
2. Specialty wards
3. Intensive care

As well as outpatients, emergency department, day case surgery etc.

Patients admitted from A&E would go to 1, then move to 2. Some might go directly to 2, sickest ones to 3.

In many hospitals, the assessment unit is vital to flow of patients out of Emergency Department.

With COVID, several blocks have been introduced. Firstly patients have to be treated as "hot" in 2m apart bed spaces until their test results are back. This reduces an average six bedded bay to four.

There are rapid tests that turn around in around an hour or two, but their availability is limited. PCR still takes up to 24 hours to get back (often quicker), and lateral flow in the population admitted to hospital isn't sensitive enough to pick up silent cases.
THREAD
I created a simple table to illustrate the individual impact of the "flexible second dose timing" now recommended in the UK.

Coincidentally, @bob_wachter & @ashishkjha just tackled the US policy question in this important piece. 1/
https://t.co/n5bHkdIo0c


I based this on recent statements from the UK chief medical officers, JCVI, and what we know from prior vaccine development. 2/

JCVI: https://t.co/6FQ25d6MFE

UK Chief Medical Officer (CMO) statement: https://t.co/RTpAIqgE1i

CMO letter to the profession:

This table and thread focuses on the AZ vaccine, where more data on a delayed second dose is available than with the Pfizer vaccine. It is not intended to address questions about single-dose regimens or mix & match approaches. 3/


In the table, persons “A” and “B” both receive their first dose in January. “A” receives their second dose in February (4 weeks later), and “B” receives their second dose in April (12 weeks later). “C” receives their first dose in April and second dose in May (4 weeks later). 4/


I made a qualitative comparison the potential efficacy during the two months between “A” and “B’s” second dose, as well as the potential longer-term efficacy after “B” receives their second dose. 5/
EMPTY HOSPITALS IN THE UK...WHAT IS GOING ON?!!! #SCAMDEMIC2020


https://t.co/8amD9PQhfO


https://t.co/pmCsSJ6a1p


https://t.co/KRPpFVCSgz


https://t.co/9iyvqPyo9O