7 days 30 days All time Recent Popular
To those saying that those who have got their public health advice wrong earlier in the pandemic should put up their hands and apologise... a little cautionary lesson from another sector

A short 🧵

1/

Public health is not my thing

But Brexit is

And throughout 2019 and 2020 I have been trying to make predictions as to what will happen in that story. Lives do not depend on this, only my professional reputation (marginally) does

2/12

The three series of #BrexitDiagram I made in 2019 were extraordinarily accurate

Series 1/2
https://t.co/wOSzIXxJ2M

Series 3
https://t.co/E4fKeGoa5n

Series 4
https://t.co/yRsQ8mLGj1

Each series got that stage of Brexit right

3/12

The 2020 series was nowhere near as good - at one stage I had No Deal Brexit at 78% chance in early December - and that was not what

I own this error - I was wrong

I know *why* I was wrong - I thought the European Parliament would fight more on Provisional Application, and I thought agreeing everything in a week wouldn't work. I wasn't right

The Manston crisis / borders closing changed something too

5/12
NHS beds, an explainer


Under normal circumstances, most NHS acute hospitals will have several types of inpatient areas

1. Assessment unit
2. Specialty wards
3. Intensive care

As well as outpatients, emergency department, day case surgery etc.

Patients admitted from A&E would go to 1, then move to 2. Some might go directly to 2, sickest ones to 3.

In many hospitals, the assessment unit is vital to flow of patients out of Emergency Department.

With COVID, several blocks have been introduced. Firstly patients have to be treated as "hot" in 2m apart bed spaces until their test results are back. This reduces an average six bedded bay to four.

There are rapid tests that turn around in around an hour or two, but their availability is limited. PCR still takes up to 24 hours to get back (often quicker), and lateral flow in the population admitted to hospital isn't sensitive enough to pick up silent cases.
EMPTY HOSPITALS IN THE UK...WHAT IS GOING ON?!!! #SCAMDEMIC2020


https://t.co/8amD9PQhfO


https://t.co/pmCsSJ6a1p


https://t.co/KRPpFVCSgz


https://t.co/9iyvqPyo9O
THREAD
I created a simple table to illustrate the individual impact of the "flexible second dose timing" now recommended in the UK.

Coincidentally, @bob_wachter & @ashishkjha just tackled the US policy question in this important piece. 1/
https://t.co/n5bHkdIo0c


I based this on recent statements from the UK chief medical officers, JCVI, and what we know from prior vaccine development. 2/

JCVI: https://t.co/6FQ25d6MFE

UK Chief Medical Officer (CMO) statement: https://t.co/RTpAIqgE1i

CMO letter to the profession:

This table and thread focuses on the AZ vaccine, where more data on a delayed second dose is available than with the Pfizer vaccine. It is not intended to address questions about single-dose regimens or mix & match approaches. 3/


In the table, persons “A” and “B” both receive their first dose in January. “A” receives their second dose in February (4 weeks later), and “B” receives their second dose in April (12 weeks later). “C” receives their first dose in April and second dose in May (4 weeks later). 4/


I made a qualitative comparison the potential efficacy during the two months between “A” and “B’s” second dose, as well as the potential longer-term efficacy after “B” receives their second dose. 5/
BOTOX FOR MIGRAINES: Key to success is depositing the Botox in the best tissue: mid-body & occipital insertion site of the most spastic Superior trapezius muscle; chronic spasm of which induces chronic muscle tension headaches and reflexive Migraine.


Way to discern spastic unilateral Superior trapezius muscle: look in mirror, view your auto driver license photo, & to pinch leading edge of each Superior trapezius to determine which leading edge is painful to pressure & also thicker; from supporting a chronically tilted head.

Looking in the mirror enables the person to view which shoulder is lower. The head usually tilts toward the lower shoulder side; causing Superior trapezius muscle on the higher shoulder side to be spastic from chronically supporting a tilted head (weighs about 10#).

The drivers license photo often confirms which shoulder is lower and provides clue as to which direction the head usually & chronically tilts. Some people pick a posed posture & straighten up when they pose for a photo. Therefore, other and more candid photos might be examined.

Often, especially in hyper-mobile women, the spine is curved with a functional scoliosis (straightens when reclined), and this is explanation for the asymmetric shoulders and tilted head.