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I created a simple table to illustrate the individual impact of the "flexible second dose timing" now recommended in the UK.

Coincidentally, @bob_wachter & @ashishkjha just tackled the US policy question in this important piece. 1/
https://t.co/n5bHkdIo0c


I based this on recent statements from the UK chief medical officers, JCVI, and what we know from prior vaccine development. 2/

JCVI: https://t.co/6FQ25d6MFE

UK Chief Medical Officer (CMO) statement: https://t.co/RTpAIqgE1i

CMO letter to the profession:

This table and thread focuses on the AZ vaccine, where more data on a delayed second dose is available than with the Pfizer vaccine. It is not intended to address questions about single-dose regimens or mix & match approaches. 3/


In the table, persons “A” and “B” both receive their first dose in January. “A” receives their second dose in February (4 weeks later), and “B” receives their second dose in April (12 weeks later). “C” receives their first dose in April and second dose in May (4 weeks later). 4/


I made a qualitative comparison the potential efficacy during the two months between “A” and “B’s” second dose, as well as the potential longer-term efficacy after “B” receives their second dose. 5/
To those saying that those who have got their public health advice wrong earlier in the pandemic should put up their hands and apologise... a little cautionary lesson from another sector

A short 🧵

1/

Public health is not my thing

But Brexit is

And throughout 2019 and 2020 I have been trying to make predictions as to what will happen in that story. Lives do not depend on this, only my professional reputation (marginally) does

2/12

The three series of #BrexitDiagram I made in 2019 were extraordinarily accurate

Series 1/2
https://t.co/wOSzIXxJ2M

Series 3
https://t.co/E4fKeGoa5n

Series 4
https://t.co/yRsQ8mLGj1

Each series got that stage of Brexit right

3/12

The 2020 series was nowhere near as good - at one stage I had No Deal Brexit at 78% chance in early December - and that was not what

I own this error - I was wrong

I know *why* I was wrong - I thought the European Parliament would fight more on Provisional Application, and I thought agreeing everything in a week wouldn't work. I wasn't right

The Manston crisis / borders closing changed something too

5/12
@KathyGrants @slomoshun1966 @kk131066 @foe_us @nature_org @jane__eden @impakterdotcom @sillymickel @vegix @how_sustainable @JamesrossrJames @climatemessages @sustainableuni1 @LolaGayleC @ResisterForever @mmpadellan @AdamParkhomenko @glennkirschner2 @morethanmySLE All the clinical Neuropsychological and forensic testing manuals that match the clinical measures we use...
Then made cheat sheets. (ok geek comment alert) the reason to do this is because if you don't understand the base rates and how they were derived, the populations 1/

@slomoshun1966 @kk131066 @foe_us @nature_org @jane__eden @impakterdotcom @sillymickel @vegix @how_sustainable @JamesrossrJames @climatemessages @sustainableuni1 @LolaGayleC @ResisterForever @mmpadellan @AdamParkhomenko @glennkirschner2 @morethanmySLE sampled to gain those "norms" and the year in which this was done, your interpretation of testing data will be significantly "off". If you can't assess the accurate diagnosis (meaning you misdiagnose) you end up causing pain and suffering not to mention treatment especially 2/

@slomoshun1966 @kk131066 @foe_us @nature_org @jane__eden @impakterdotcom @sillymickel @vegix @how_sustainable @JamesrossrJames @climatemessages @sustainableuni1 @LolaGayleC @ResisterForever @mmpadellan @AdamParkhomenko @glennkirschner2 @morethanmySLE if it involves psychopharm (meds)doesn't treat what actually ails the patient. When this happens, at best no one's treated for the actual illness they have which causes undue pain & suffering, at worst symptoms are exacerbated and or meds cause adverse reactions that can 3/

@slomoshun1966 @kk131066 @foe_us @nature_org @jane__eden @impakterdotcom @sillymickel @vegix @how_sustainable @JamesrossrJames @climatemessages @sustainableuni1 @LolaGayleC @ResisterForever @mmpadellan @AdamParkhomenko @glennkirschner2 @morethanmySLE have lasting effects (more pain and suffering) not to mention totally messing with the outcomes of legal cases
In short an inaccurate Diagnosis totally messed with people's lives.
. ..... So, if I use a measure you can bet Ive read the manual and understand the cautions, and 4/

@slomoshun1966 @kk131066 @foe_us @nature_org @jane__eden @impakterdotcom @sillymickel @vegix @how_sustainable @JamesrossrJames @climatemessages @sustainableuni1 @LolaGayleC @ResisterForever @mmpadellan @AdamParkhomenko @glennkirschner2 @morethanmySLE when to augment via clinical judgement. That often puts me at odds with folks in terms of opinions but I can back it all up via research and what's written in the manuals which often have caveats re use and application that people miss. More, as I went along it became obvious 5/
EMPTY HOSPITALS IN THE UK...WHAT IS GOING ON?!!! #SCAMDEMIC2020


https://t.co/8amD9PQhfO


https://t.co/pmCsSJ6a1p


https://t.co/KRPpFVCSgz


https://t.co/9iyvqPyo9O
A lot of people are having trauma responses, and they don't even know it. Now trauma isn't a free pass to be an asshole, but one of the ways it can manifest is through 'over controlling'. They're scared, trying to push down that fear by attacking everyone around them.


Now, trauma doesn't make you a racist, but being a racist does inflict trauma.
When you're triggered and vulnerable (and being vulnerable feels unsafe), this can lead to fear. In a desperate attempt to avoid that fear, and lack of control, people can try to control everything.

Someone disagrees with you and threatens what you're using to make sense of the universe? You attack, because it feels like an attack on you, and what you think is keeping you safe.

It doesn't mean there aren't things you should be critiquing, or that you can't have discussions, but it does mean you can and should be mindful of how your vulnerabilities are interacting with the ways you are trying to make sense of the world.

The good news is, the Government has funded 20 sessions of Medicare, so hopefully everyone can go to therapy and figure out a way to navigate a world that has changed forever.