In his recent article, @cjsnowdon claims that England's November lockdown was a good example of lockdown effectiveness. Let’s look at that claim using the ONS death-by-date registration data which have now been updated for the relevant period.

Although there is some uncertainty over the average lag between infections and death, we should expect any effect of lockdown to be visible in the deaths series after about three weeks.

If the 5th November lockdown had been effective, we might expect a beneficial effect on the deaths trend from about 26 Nov and an adverse effect from about 23 Dec, reflecting the relaxation on 2 Dec.

So what actually happened?

Nationally, deaths peak on 21 Nov, 16 days after the lockdown, almost certainly too early for that to be the cause.

Deaths increase again from 4 Dec implying infections increased right in the middle of the national lockdown.

That increase may be due to the new variant, but we would still expect to see a steeper increase 3 weeks or so after lockdown was released. In fact, there is little if any clear effect on the trend.

It is hard to overstate what a catastrophic failure the Govt & SAGE’s policy of continual restrictions & lockdown has been.

Not only has it caused economic devastation & misery for millions, it has not stopped high rates & surges in infections, hospitalisations & deaths.

Over the past 6 months, UK governments have tried mask mandates, curfews, local restrictions, regional restrictions, tiers, short *firebreaks*, national lockdowns, stricter tiers, extra tiers.

All have caused enormous costs yet look where we are at with Covid. Time to rethink.

“But it’s just obvious that lockdowns will work."

It’s past the time to indulge in wishful thinking about what you think *must* or *should* happen. Like it or not, we have to face reality: the continual lockdown/restriction cycle has failed on every possible measure.

“But things would have been even worse without the restrictions”

Hard to see how but, if you believe that, where is the evidence? e.g. have places with lighter restrictions had demonstrably worse Covid outcomes? Switzerland, Denmark, Sweden, Norway, Florida, Brazil?

“But it would have been different if we’d locked down more things/earlier/longer …”

More collateral damage & misery for certain, but where is the evidence Covid outcomes would be better? Look at Belgium, Italy, Peru, Spain, Czechia, New York, Illinois, France, Argentina.