It is hard to overstate what a catastrophic failure the Govt & SAGE’s policy of continual restrictions & lockdown has been.

Not only has it caused economic devastation & misery for millions, it has not stopped high rates & surges in infections, hospitalisations & deaths.

Over the past 6 months, UK governments have tried mask mandates, curfews, local restrictions, regional restrictions, tiers, short *firebreaks*, national lockdowns, stricter tiers, extra tiers.

All have caused enormous costs yet look where we are at with Covid. Time to rethink.
“But it’s just obvious that lockdowns will work."

It’s past the time to indulge in wishful thinking about what you think *must* or *should* happen. Like it or not, we have to face reality: the continual lockdown/restriction cycle has failed on every possible measure.
“But things would have been even worse without the restrictions”

Hard to see how but, if you believe that, where is the evidence? e.g. have places with lighter restrictions had demonstrably worse Covid outcomes? Switzerland, Denmark, Sweden, Norway, Florida, Brazil?
“But it would have been different if we’d locked down more things/earlier/longer …”

More collateral damage & misery for certain, but where is the evidence Covid outcomes would be better? Look at Belgium, Italy, Peru, Spain, Czechia, New York, Illinois, France, Argentina.
“But New Zealand!”

Long term (& continued) border closures & extreme lockdown in an isolated island nation before the virus was endemic: whether you agree or disagree with what NZ did, it was just not relevant for the UK situation last March and certainly not now.
“But what’s your alternative?”

Please think that question through. If the lockdown strategy creates huge costs and doesn't help with Covid, it needs to be stopped whether or not there is anything else the Government should do.
Whatever side of the lockdown debate people have been on, to continue with this strategy despite the clear evidence of how badly it has failed is not just reckless but criminally negligent.
Eventually we need a proper inquiry into the advice SAGE has given but the urgent thing now is to reverse some of the most damaging measures: school closures, retail, hospitality & sporting shutdowns & the use of criminal law to stop families meeting up.
Can I end with a plea to journalists?

When ministers, scientists, union & council leaders push for more school closures & even tighter restrictions, at least provide *some* challenge on why we shd believe measures that have failed so disastrously up to now will succeed this time

More from Health

🚨Important changes to lockdown/self-isolation regulations from 5pm

The Health Protection (Coronavirus, Restrictions) (All Tiers and Self-Isolation) (England) (Amendment) Regulations 2021

£800 'house party' FPN & police can now access track & trace data

https://t.co/k9XCpVsXhC


“Large gathering offence”

As trailed by Home Secretary last week there is now a fixed penalty notice of £800 (or £400 if you pay within 14 days) for participating in an gathering of over 15 people in a private residence


Fixed Penalty Notices double for each subsequent “large gathering offence” up to £6,400

Compare:
- Ordinary fixed penalty notice is £200 or £100 if paid in 14 days
- Holding or being involved in the holding of a gathering of over 30 people is £10,000


Second big change:

Since September has been a legal requirement to sell-isolate if you test positive/notified by Track & Trace of exposure to someone else who tested positive

Police can now be given access to NHS Track & Trace data if for the purpose of enforcement/prosecution


This will make it easier for police to enforce people breaking self-isolation rules. Currently there has been practically no enforcement.

Data says only a small proportion of people meant to be self-isolating are fully doing so.

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I’m torn on how to approach the idea of luck. I’m the first to admit that I am one of the luckiest people on the planet. To be born into a prosperous American family in 1960 with smart parents is to start life on third base. The odds against my very existence are astronomical.


I’ve always felt that the luckiest people I know had a talent for recognizing circumstances, not of their own making, that were conducive to a favorable outcome and their ability to quickly take advantage of them.

In other words, dumb luck was just that, it required no awareness on the person’s part, whereas “smart” luck involved awareness followed by action before the circumstances changed.

So, was I “lucky” to be born when I was—nothing I had any control over—and that I came of age just as huge databases and computers were advancing to the point where I could use those tools to write “What Works on Wall Street?” Absolutely.

Was I lucky to start my stock market investments near the peak of interest rates which allowed me to spend the majority of my adult life in a falling rate environment? Yup.