Why should we be careful when talking about a “jobs bounce-back” in South Africa? - A THREAD.

You don’t get better labour market economists in South Africa than the @NIDS_CRAM team, but the main finding of an “employment bounce-back” seems counterintuitive. What’s going on? 1/n

NIDS-CRAM does NOT show a rebound to pre-COVID employment levels. They report 700,000 job lost between Feb and Oct 2020, this is massive = 3.85% fall (broad definition). The authors of the employment paper say this could be as high as 5.3% or 960,000 jobs.

The authors @joshbudlender @ihsaanbassier (+ Rocco) also show that Oct employment is normally higher than Feb employment, super roughly Oct is plausibly around 102% of Feb. This means it’s plausible 360,000 jobs would have been gained between Feb-Oct *anyway*.

This would mean - within the study parameters - it’s possible COVID has caused up to (an outer outer limit) of 1.32 million job losses when comparing Oct 2020 with what we would have expected it to be in normal times. This is a total disaster in the context of the SA economy.

This is roughly what we should expect from the StatsSA QLFS. This showed 2.2 million jobs lost in first half of 2020, and 543,000 regained in Q3, meaning a loss of just under 1.7 million jobs in first 9 months. We’d definitely expect some more jobs regained in Oct-Dec.

Around the world, very much including the Western world, real power is measured by the ability to silence criticism.

The highest reaches of power are measured by the ability to force people to speak in politically-approved ways.

The ability to silence criticism is a signifier of power. It's how truly powerful groups and regimes recognize each other. If free people can challenge your ideals or mock you without fear, you aren't TRULY powerful, no matter how much authority you might nominally possess.

And if you can force people to speak, force them to use your preferred language, penalize them socially or legally for failing to signal their support for your agenda, then you've entered the winner's circle. Your government or movement has taken a seat at the highest table.

This is one of the reasons people with authoritarian or totalitarian inclinations are constantly screaming that opponents are trying to silence them, even when it's manifestly untrue. It's a means of signaling their contempt for the opposition, of diminishing its stature.

These people would cheerfully allow themselves to be silenced by a regime or movement they truly respected. They pretend to be victims of oppression as a means of signaling the illegitimacy of leaders they despise.

I am in a meeting now that is so annoying but I want to take my mind off things that upset me to talk about love and marriage.

I have been listening to people talk in many @joinClubhouse rooms about what they expect from potential partners and laugh very hard each time.

I laugh because those expectations are what keep a lot of people single. Being single is also not a bad thing as I have been more single in my lifetime than I have been in relationships. I also learned a lot about what kept me single for all those years. It was largely idealism.

Let me digress a bit to one of the pivotal encounters in my life when someone literally came out of the darkness to evangelize to me.

He deliberately ran towards me to deliver a message as if he had been sent on an errand. He told me that God doesn't want perfection.

He said, God wants us to strive towards perfection but knows we will never attain it. He said I should not beat myself up whenever I don't measure up but I should remain trying. It is the act of trying that is desirable. God is the only perfection and we strive to be like God.

I became an Atheist after that conversation. I took the opposite direction in search for perfection. In a roundabout way, it led me back to faith.

That is also my story of love and relationships. The best came at my most skeptical moment after I gave up on everyone else.

Tomorrow on #HMD2021 we remember victims of the genocidal Nazi regime and of the many acts of other governments in the years since and in today. As it’s @Humanists_UK 125th anniversary and a year for humanist history, I also want to think about the Nazis' humanist victims. 1/9

In 1933 the Nazi government banned humanist and other freethinking and secular groups. Hitler boasted he'd won his ‘fight against the atheist movement’ and ‘stamped it out’. That year Hitler made many speeches saying that only Christian organisations could be permitted 2/9

The largest organisation that found itself banned was the Deutscher Freidenkerbund. It had 600,000 members and was founded just 15 years before @Humanists_UK. Its headquarters were confiscated and given to the Protestant churches, who converted it into a Christian mission 3/9

This is Max Sievers, who was the last chair of the Deutscher Freidenkerbund. He was already in exile in Belgium at the time the ban came into effect. He fled to the USA in 1939 but was denied a visa and returned. He was guillotined for treason in Brandenburg Prison in 1943. 4/9

Humanist culture had long been thriving in Germany (even the English word humanism came to us in the 19th century from the German Humanismus) but the attempted annihilation of it as a culture was very successful, as it was across Europe by both Fascism and Marxist-Leninism 5/9

Israel and Russia held intensive contacts in last few days over humanitarian issues related to Syria. Via ⁦@WallaNews⁩

2-Over last two days, talks between Netayahu and Putin, Israeli DM Gantz and Russian DM, Israeli FM Ashkenazi and Russian FM Sergey Lavrov. Israeli DM team says Gantz spoke to counterpart about "advancing humanitarian issues in the area."

3-Israel and Russia held intensive talks on Syria in last few days

4-Last Wednesday, on day of call between Gantz and Russian DM, Israeli ambassador to Russia Alex Ben Tzvi met w/Russian FM, Putin's Syria envoy Mikhail Bogdanov. IDF attache in Moscow attended. Russian MoD confirmed meeting in statement. Bogdanov and Ben Tzvi met again today

5-Meanwhile, Israeli cabinet convened today at 6:00 PM Israel time. Senior officials called meeting "urgent" to deal w/issue defined as "security-related and classified."

Biafra’s forgotten children.

The claim that Gabon’s president Ali Bongo is actually Nigerian has shone a spotlight on a subject not many were aware of, that of the children airlifted out of Biafra, and Nigeria, some never to be reunited with their families. Now they are adults.

In his latest book titled Nouvelle Affaires Africaine (New African Affairs), French writer Pierre Péan claims that Gabonese president, Ali Bongo is not actually from Gabon and that he is of Nigerian heritage. He claims that Ali Bongo was adopted from the secessionist state...

of Biafra during the bloody Nigerian Civil War by Omar Bongo, the now deceased previous Gabonese president and father of Ali Bongo.
Pierre Péan’s charge led Ali Bongo’s opposition to demand a DNA test from the president. Péan also claims that Bongo presented a forged birth...

certificate during the 2009 elections & that the elections were rigged, stating that the real winner was Andre Mba Obame.
Ali Bongo’s heritage & background has become a serious issue of contention for some, & has led to protests in Libreville over Bongo’s legitimacy as president.

According to the Constitution of Gabon, no one born to foreign parents can be president. It should be clear that these are all unsubstantiated claims. Ali Bongo ascended to the presidency in the 2009 elections, following the death of his father Omar Bongo who was President of...

Daily Bookmarks to GAVNet 01/15/2021

#Yemen is a very active topic on Twitter these days, with a number of online campaigns underway, some of which are trending globally. What’s new and interesting is the massive participation by Yemenis using these hashtags #HouthiTerrorismInYemen & #StopHouthiTerrorismInYemen 1/13

These hashtags were started by a group called “Aqyal,” an emerging social movement that fights Hashemite supremacy and calls for equal opportunities for all Yemenis. It’s widely supported by Yemeni youth, including those affiliated with the existing political parties. 2/13

Aqyal was able to rally people across the political spectrum against Houthis for the first time, and this success was due to 1) their independence, 2) all of them are volunteers, 3) transparency in organizing, and 4) the fact that it’s a just cause. 3/13

On the other hand, Houthi supporters have rallied behind these two hashtags #YemenCantWait & #DayofAction4Yemen
These hashtags were originally started by NGOs& independent activists, but their goal coincided with the goal of t Houthi, which is ending support for Saudi Arabia 4/13

The top goal of Houthis since 2015 is to neutralize Saudi Arabia, so the group can more easily take control over the rest of Yemen. Therefore, Houthis hid behind these campaigns, taking advantage of NGOs’ anti-Saudi message.5/13

Iranian Reformist Front (Jebheye Eslathalabane Iran) was officially founded yesterday in Jamaran, Khomeini's historic house near Tehran.

The founding meeting elected Behzad Nabavi as an interim head since he is oldest.

And also 5 people as a committee to draft the IRF's by-laws

The five are:

1- Outspoken Tehran MP @mah_sadeghi
2- Faraj Komijani, politician with a base in an official teachers union
3- Ali Bagheri (low-key politician)
4- @MansooriAzar , noted reformist politician
5- Rouhani's ex-VP @mowlaverdi

Some more pictures of the meeting.

The next meeting of the group is on Wednesday and will be held virtually.

The top question remains whether and who (and how many candidates) to run for the coming #IranElections2021

The founding statement says the reformists will run a single candidate agreed by all reformist parties but only if elections are to be "free, legal, competitive, just and constitutional"... which is obviously not what's going to happen!

The founding statement also includes big demands like call for a referendum to revise the constitution. But as usual these big words aren't followed by any actions.

What will it take to go after ISWAP enclaves in the Lake Chad region? These guys are building a freaking army !!. If we seriously want this war to end we have to create a buffer, isolate Boko Haram and keep them from having outside reinforcement of any kind.

No amount of appeasement will force the Chadian government or their French overlords from denying ISWAP the use of their territory as a staging ground. They are just not interested in doing that. Not because they cant, but because it goes against their interest,

Think about it. In February 2019 a series of French airstrikes targeted a group of “mercenaries and terrorists” from Libya. French Mirage fighters struck a column of 40 vehicles that crossed into Chad from southern Libya.

French military said it got involved at the Chadian government’s request. Think about this for a minute. They obliterated a convoy of 40 pickup trucks of an armed group that had travelled from Libya and was “penetrating deep into Chadian territory.

I implore you to look up a map and see the incredible amount of distance required to carry out such an undertaken. The fighter jets, based at the N’Djamena, first carried out a “show of force” flying low over the convoy. The awestruck militants would have been wondering

A lot has been written about what Mario Draghi's arrival in Italy means for Italy. But little has been said about what he could mean for Europe. I think Draghi could be a game changer for EU; he could even turn its toxic North-South dynamic on its head. Thread 1/

Why? The @EU_Commission is currently reviewing (quietly) member states reform plans. These are basis upon which EU capitals hope to begin receiving their allocation, in transfers & loans, from the €750 billion Recovery Fund, starting later this year 2/

Remember the numbers are unprecedented. Italy is eligible for ~€188bn (roughly €65.5bn in grants; €123bn in loans). Spain a €144bn, roughly €59bn in grants & €85bn in loans etc etc. The amounts for all member states are unprecedented 3/

Yet despite this, & fact Fr & Ger pushed hard for this deal, officials in Bxl are scathing about proposals advanced by.. Paris & Berlin. I oversimplify: but basically, Macron is distracted by Covid; Merkel, elections in Sept. Sweeping reforms are the last thing on their minds 4/

This puts Commission in its usual bind. If Bxl doesn’t raise the reform bar with Chancellery & @Elysee, it will have no credibility to push southern Europe to do same. But it also can’t impose reforms on countries that aren’t willing to do them, especially not the big 2 5/

BRITSH ARMY HEADCOUNT REDUCTION (Thread)
Looking back at personnel cuts made in 2010, a reduced Army of 82,000 didn’t help Britain regain its financial strength, it simply signified a hollowing-out of our ability to defend ourselves.
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It destroyed the credibility of David Cameron’s Coalition Government then and even more so in hindsight. It was military illiteracy on a grand scale. The problem wasn’t so much the reduction itself, but the fact that there was no real strategy behind it, no future plan.
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Back in 2010, the UK's involvement Iraq and Afghanistan didn’t really serve our national interests (See Ben Barry’s book). If these conflicts were sub-optimal uses of the Army, they raised the important question of what the Army’s underlying raison d’être should be.
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We hope the Integrated Review will provide a concrete response to this. In the meantime, the Integrated Operating Concept has been much talked about, but we have been left in the dark about what it signifies in terms of strategic priorities and a reconfigured force.
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The resulting strategy will obviously be threat-driven with Russia, China, North Korea and Iran representing near-peer threats and Islamic terror groups in Africa and the Middle East posing an asymmetric threat. This suggests a mix of high-end and light forces.
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Israel in Egypt - Handel - Downtown Voices and Trinity Baroque Orchestra... https://t.co/tKoopO1paE via @YouTube Plagues and Census' Old and New Testaments to #CovidPurpose #Covid19Aphorism Narrative by Aphorism #ArrestHancock

In what was United Bengal (modern day West Bengal+Bangladesh) back in 1941, Muslims were 56% of the population, and today they are approximately about 67% of the population. If you go back to the early 20th century or the late 19th century, Muslims weren't even a majority.

This

example of Bengal is what has been happening across the whole of the Indian sub-continent, albeit at a slower or faster pace as the case may be region to region, but the fact remains that the change has been unidirectional= As time goes by, the proportion of Muslims increases in

a given region and the proportion of Hindus goes down. Project the numbers out into 50 or 60 years and you have multiple states/regions of India with a Muslim plurality or outright majority. Project the numbers out to a century or so and it's difficult to argue how Hindus can

maintain cultural/political dominance in the long run. Some people like to say, "Oh well so what. Numbers don't matter, what have you achieved at 80% of the population which you're going to achieve at 90%!".

This is faulty thinking, because the direction of change itself is

the demgoraphic sense is quite critical of whether you are expanding or retreating civilisation. The more people you have relative to the enemy, the more the chances that you will adamant about taking over more territory. The less people you have relative to the enemy, the more

I have for the past one week been forced to put off tweets about weapons systems and focus instead on the international conspiracy. I thought today would be different. Apparently not. Media outlets are saying its time for Peace Talks with Boko Haram. Are these people for real?

If this is coming from some mediocre outlet one can easily disregarded. But when mainstream media is saying things like

''With options limited for fighting terrorists negotiations may be the best remaining alternative. How stupid of an idea is that? First of all Boko Haram

is not winning. Their goal of Islamizing Nigeria or set up a caliphate has clearly failed. The more cowardly attacks they mount against civilians the more obvious their desperation. They know they cannot hope to win. The number of jihadi groups fighting to overthrow

national governments and setup a state has grown steadily over the past decade. Sitting down with a murderous jihadi group that does not recognize or abide by the Geneva Convention is as good as recognizing and legitimizing them. Its that simple. I sincerely hope the Nigerian

government do not yield to these carefully planted ideas. Yesterday Amnesty received a $750,000 warchest. Today Nigerian media is talking about negotiating peace talks with a non state entity. Lemme try and explain the dynamic implications of sitting down with terrorist groups.

Welcome to a new Legislative Day in the Senate of the Federal Republic of Nigeria!

Senate President, @DrAhmadLawan leads the Principal Officers into the Chambers, takes the official prayers and begin the day's proceedings at 10:40am.

#TodayInSenatePlenary

Senator Ibrahim Oloriegbe moves for the adoption of Votes and Proceedings for Tuesday, 15th February, 2021.

Senator Ezenwa Onyewuchi seconds.

#TodayInSenatePlenary

Senator Ayo Akinyelure presents18 petitions from the Office of the President of the Senate to the floor of the Senate.

Petitions are laid and referred to the Committee on Ethics, Privileges and Public Petitions and to report back in six weeks.

#TodayInSenatePlenary

Senator Solomon Adeola {@YAYIAdeola} cites Order 43 to inform the Senate on the demise of Alhaji Lateef Kayode Jakande, the first civilian Governor of Lagos State.