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Why should we be careful when talking about a “jobs bounce-back” in South Africa? - A THREAD.

You don’t get better labour market economists in South Africa than the @NIDS_CRAM team, but the main finding of an “employment bounce-back” seems counterintuitive. What’s going on? 1/n

 NIDS-CRAM does NOT show a rebound to pre-COVID employment levels. They report 700,000 job lost between Feb and Oct 2020, this is massive = 3.85% fall (broad definition). The authors of the employment paper say this could be as high as 5.3% or 960,000 jobs. https://t.co/dw1RwUTPau
The authors @joshbudlender @ihsaanbassier (+ Rocco) also show that Oct employment is normally higher than Feb employment, super roughly Oct is plausibly around 102% of Feb. This means it’s plausible 360,000 jobs would have been gained between Feb-Oct *anyway*.
This would mean - within the study parameters - it’s possible COVID has caused up to (an outer outer limit) of 1.32 million job losses when comparing Oct 2020 with what we would have expected it to be in normal times. This is a total disaster in the context of the SA economy.
This is roughly what we should expect from the StatsSA QLFS. This showed 2.2 million jobs lost in first half of 2020, and 543,000 regained in Q3, meaning a loss of just under 1.7 million jobs in first 9 months. We’d definitely expect some more jobs regained in Oct-Dec.
This also represents up to an upper 7.3% gap between what we would have expected in Oct 2020 and what we actually got. Or a “real” gap of 7.3% if we were to adjust the Oct 2019 numbers for the usual employment growth and changes. Super rough.
So this means we have somewhere between a 3.9% and 7.3% “real” fall in employment. We’re now reaching levels that seem congruent with what else we know about the economy.
The IMF has projected a 7.5% fall in GDP in SA in 2020. Generally GDP and employment track each other.
We are also now closer to other data we have.

In Oct 2020 vs. Oct 2019:
→ Retail sales down 2.3%
→ Wholesale sales down 4.6%
In tourism + entertainment in Oct 2020:
→ The number of tourists from overseas was almost zero
→ Income for the tourist accommodation fell 66.4% based on 54% decrease in the no of nights sold + sold at lower price
→ Food and beverage income down 39%
Manufacturing also. Oct 2020 vs 2019:
→ Volume of manu production down 3.9%
→ Manu sales down 0.9%
→ Capacity utilisation down.
→ Freight transport down 8.7%
Mining (one of the least hit sectors) is also down.
→ Mining production -5.9%
High frequency data tracks immediate changes in behaviour. Oct 2020 vs pre-COVID:

→ Retail and recreation down average 16%
→ Grocery and pharmacy down average 1%
→ Transit stations down average 31%
→ Workplaces down average 18%

(Tx @EconTwitJosh for this data)
The upper half of this 3.9 - 7.3% and 700,000 - 1.32 million range also much more closely matches the rest of the world. There’s no reason to believe that the moribund SA economy would have bounced back MORE than elsewhere!

As pointed out by @IlanStrauss
It’s important to make explicit NIDS-CRAM is Feb vs. Oct 2020. So this doesn’t account for the subsequent lockdowns. Employment has yo-yoed during 2020 all over the place. So this could be an “October spike” also.
All of this assumes there are no problems with the underlying NIDS-CRAM data, which could still oversell the bounce-back due to sampling or other issues. Admittedly, above makes some VERY broad estimates. E.g. in normal times employment might not grow between Oct 2019 and 2020.
But all of this shows that it would be EXTREMELY irresponsible to interpret the NIDS-CRAM data to be showing the economy is rebounding. Hunger is up, women’s employment is growing more slowly, and a huge amount of jobs have been shed. We need renewed rescue measures urgently! END
I'd love to hear from authors @NicSpaull @ihsaanbassier @joshbudlender @NIDS_CRAM @MurrayLeibbrand @VimalRanchhod and others on this! And I may have made errors so please correct.

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Fuck Africa. I'm American. Any African mad at dem words, kick rocks. Don't like it, jump ship. Back 2 Africa. Need receipts. How much yall made off us? U think we didn't know? Mafucka, we the vibranium that made Africa pop. We werent stole. We were sold.

Yall sold us. Then yall hv the audacity 2 come here, pass as American niggas, lecture us about racism & white supremacy, police our emotion, critique our anger & then U have the bravado 2 lecture us about fighting when yall let Europeans come & take yall shit? Fuck out of here.

Immigrants by nature unpatriotic. When times got tough, you left your country. You abdicated the responsibility to make your country better. You didn't fight. You ran. We didn't leave. We stayed. We fighters. Yall runners. Ain't know runner can tell a fighter about a damn thing.

"Erik U dont understand. We wouldve been killed." So the fuck what. We died fo our shit, but yall weren't willing 2 die for yours & now U come here trying 2 cut the line & take our place & Bitch, dont be calling me by my 1st name. We aint cool like that. Thats Mr. Killmonger 2 U.

& we ain' family. I dont play crayola politics so I dont care we got da same skin color. I ain't got no Melanin infatuation like the rest of deese niggas. I's knows what yall done did to us. I gives as much afuck about Africans as George Jefferson gave about Archie Bunker.
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I laugh because those expectations are what keep a lot of people single. Being single is also not a bad thing as I have been more single in my lifetime than I have been in relationships. I also learned a lot about what kept me single for all those years. It was largely idealism.

Let me digress a bit to one of the pivotal encounters in my life when someone literally came out of the darkness to evangelize to me.

He deliberately ran towards me to deliver a message as if he had been sent on an errand. He told me that God doesn't want perfection.

He said, God wants us to strive towards perfection but knows we will never attain it. He said I should not beat myself up whenever I don't measure up but I should remain trying. It is the act of trying that is desirable. God is the only perfection and we strive to be like God.

I became an Atheist after that conversation. I took the opposite direction in search for perfection. In a roundabout way, it led me back to faith.

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@atsumori5834 An Argentinian variant of Italian fascism with stuff from German National Socialism that took an unexpected turn and led to a globalist and progressive ideology. Menemism was a conservative variant but not faithful to the doctrine and from that new generation arose Kirchnerism.

The Kirchnerists are antifascists and "supercapitalists", which is a term used by Juan Perón to refer to a deformed, monstrous style of government, the result of the fusion between Marxism and Capitalism (Globalism).

The Kirchneristas dubbed themselves Peronism and little by little they are making the orthodox Peronists treated like outdated garbage and surely soon persecuted as if they were authentic NationalSocialists. A tragedy.

Peronism is full of progressives, globalists, left liberals, feminists, zionists...
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