BC WORLD
Saved by @jay_millerjay

A quick thread on #Myitsone dam & #MyanmarChinaRelations in light of the SAC announcement that they would be restarting some stalled Chinese projects in Burma. This announcement has led to speculation about Myitsone, which has been suspended since 2011. Let’s go! ➡️ China has

 consistently misunderstood & underestimated popular opposition to Myitsone. First and foremost, to the Burmese people, this is about the “mother river” of Burma - the Irrawaddy- and it’s nearly sacred importance to them as a lifeline of their country. This is what drove the
organic anti-dam movement that started locally in Kachin but +/- 2007 was effectively picked up & nationalized by Burmese environmental CSOs. Instead of understanding this, the Chinese lashed out and blamed the United States when Thein Sein suspended the project. I assure you
the USG was as surprised as China when the project was suspended. But China never believed it was truly the desire of the Burmese people that stopped the project. Today, the dam doesn’t make sense economically for Beijing & will definitely alienate Burmese, yet they stubbornly
continue to push it. Why? Let’s unpack a bit further. In addition to Myitsone, there were other campaigns & protests targeting Chinese projects such as Letpadaung copper mine & Kyaukphyu pipeline, port & SEZ. While these campaigns had varying levels off effect, none was as
successful as the anti-Myitsone effort. The copper mine protests resulted in allegations security forces used white phosphorus (2012) & live ammunition (2014) on protesters. DASSK, as a newly-elected MP, was appointed to head the Govt’s investigation into the mine & protests.
The Chinese owners, Wanbao, launched a big PR & CSR push to show how they were benefiting the local community (here’s a cringey propaganda video: https://t.co/bwr6BBnrci ). The project continues but still faces some local opposition even though ASSK told people to stop protests.
Nonetheless the mine is operating. While Letpadaung did become a national campaign, it has been primarily a local issue since ASSK pronounced it resolved in 2016. With Kyaukphyu, a huge SEZ & port project in Rakhine state, there was again a national campaign but it reverted to a
primarily local grievance after ASSK’s govt renegotiated the project, downsizing it dramatically. When I asked Burmese thinkers, scholars & analysts about these Chinese mega projects under NLD governance as part of some 2016-2017 research, the replies were interesting- esp from
those who had been on Chinese lobbying/study tours. In crude summary, the general view was that Kyaukphyu SEZ was strategic for China but not for the NLD or Tatmadaw, both of which had, um, ‘issues’ with the local Rakhine leadership and communities‘. While China would be willing
to do just about anything to preserve its vital Indian Ocean access, the NLD could negotiate on it. Letpadaung was viewed as commercial for both, and therefore was also negotiable. Myitsone was different: for the Burmese side, at least at a popular level, it was & is existential
so there seemed to be little scope for any popularly elected govt to take the hit of restarting it. For the Chinese side, circa 2016, it was largely economic, but in a more strategic sense than a project like Letpadaung. Over time, it has become vastly more about politics for
China. I recently have been told by well informed Burmese that Beijing wants this project restarted because it was signed by Emperor Xi personally. This rings true to me for several reasons. 1) China has never seen the on-the-ground consequences of these mega-projects as being
their problem, and has very steadily worked all sides of Burma’s elite politics (see eg linked GT interview with their Amb to Burma). 2) Pressure on BRI overall has increased globally, but they continue to press forward as BRI is increasingly seen internally as inexorably linked
to Xi Jinping. 3) Xi’s consolidation of power since 2013 makes anything personally associated with him and related to his prestige a top priority for the party-state. So it will be interesting to watch all sides as this saga continues to unfold. #WhatsHappeninglnMyanmar

More from World

\u0938\u0940 \u092c\u0940 \u092a\u0902\u091c\u093e\u092c\u0940
सी बी पंजाबी...
@cbpunjabi
How PM Imran Khan was humiliated during OIC conference.

Pakistani Prime Minister Imran Khan has condemned the construction of the Ayodhya Ram Temple in India at the Conference of Islamic Countries (OIC).

UAE,which chaired the confernce asked Imran,What is the problem for the Islamic world with India building a temple in their country?
What is the problem for the Muslims of the world with the AyodhyaRama Temple? We hv no interest in interfering in the intrnal affairs of India.

In addition, we have provided 13 acres of land in our country for temple construction and 13.5 acres of land for parking and other facilities for Hindus.

Nowhere in the world have Hindus, who live and study attempt or incite riots or carry out suicide attacks in the name of

religion. They are peaceful and live according to the laws of the land.

Temple construction in India is an internal matter of India.  That is not the issue to be discussed here now.  India will look after India.

When will Pakistan repay the money it

borrowed from OlC? All Islamic countries except Pakistan contributed to this fund. Pakistan only borrows but failed to pay up.

Then the President of the Maldives stood up and began to say "The separatist and coup attempts instigated by Pakistan have created many internal
WORLD
Ruthless Focus
Ruthless Focus
@oremforever
Let me talk to those who are planning to buy cars these year; Buying a car is good. Very essential for making life easier. However, a car isn’t cheap, the cheapest car is around 450USD in Kenya. Today owning a car may seem very easy as compared to the 70s, THREAD 1/3


Today you can buy a car either in cash 💰, by bank finance, hire purchase and through trade in. But my interest on this post is on bank financing and Hire purchase. Bank finance is where the bank buys for you a car and you pay the bank for a period of time.

Hire purchase terms of purchase is where by you identify a car in a dealership, negotiate for its final price, pay an agreed deposit upfront then clear balance in defined period of time I.e in 6/12/18/20/24 months. So HP =Deposit + total Monthly Installments.

Whenever a bank offers to buy you a car, there is always a 99.9% chance that they will retain the logbook[A substitute for a collateral in lending] A logbook is the only instrument of ownership for any car in Kenya. So the bank will issue you with your logbook once you finish,

Finish paying for the car. The only problem I have with bank financing is the possibility of the buyer losing the car and servicing the loan. It has happened and it does happen. The bank repossesses the car and they auction it. You shall have lost two important things; the money
WORLD
Advertisement
Paul Mason
Paul Mason
@paulmasonnews
The fascist danger is not over: a thread. 1/ What's important is that Trump incited the attack; the administration did not stop him; the chain of command protecting the legislature evaporated; and he is still in office inciting objections to the

2/ The Proud Boys led this, but the militias were largely absent. 45% of Republican voters *support* the attack on Congress. This is what Fox, Parler and the talk radio shows have created: a mass fascist network prepared to overthrow the US Constitution...

3/ There are similar moments in the 1930s... Hitler's Schluss Jetzt slogan in 1932 - "end the republic now" - and Paris 6 Feb 1934, when a fascist mob stormed parliament...


4/ The key is to demand the police do their job while preparing for them to break under pressure and via collusion. That's what let Mussolini's thugs march to power and, in the late stages, allowed the SA to run riot in Germany...

5/ I want all liberal and democratic politicians to say, today, "I am antifascist" - it's a moment to choose: you can't ignore them anymore. We have to fight them as in the 1930s... an alliance of the centre and the left...
WORLD
Gilad Isaacs
Gilad Isaacs
@GiladIsaacs
Why should we be careful when talking about a “jobs bounce-back” in South Africa? - A THREAD.

You don’t get better labour market economists in South Africa than the @NIDS_CRAM team, but the main finding of an “employment bounce-back” seems counterintuitive. What’s going on? 1/n

NIDS-CRAM does NOT show a rebound to pre-COVID employment levels. They report 700,000 job lost between Feb and Oct 2020, this is massive = 3.85% fall (broad definition). The authors of the employment paper say this could be as high as 5.3% or 960,000 jobs.

The authors @joshbudlender @ihsaanbassier (+ Rocco) also show that Oct employment is normally higher than Feb employment, super roughly Oct is plausibly around 102% of Feb. This means it’s plausible 360,000 jobs would have been gained between Feb-Oct *anyway*.


This would mean - within the study parameters - it’s possible COVID has caused up to (an outer outer limit) of 1.32 million job losses when comparing Oct 2020 with what we would have expected it to be in normal times. This is a total disaster in the context of the SA economy.

This is roughly what we should expect from the StatsSA QLFS. This showed 2.2 million jobs lost in first half of 2020, and 543,000 regained in Q3, meaning a loss of just under 1.7 million jobs in first 9 months. We’d definitely expect some more jobs regained in Oct-Dec.
WORLD
Shahin-ur Rahman
Shahin-ur Rahman
@ShahinRahmanUK
[Thread]What makes a hadith authentic? The basics of #HadithLiteracy

Five criteria must be met for a hadith to be classed as authentic.
1. Morally upright narrators
2. Precision in transmission
3. Connected chain
4. Free from inconsistencies with other reports
5. Solitary reports must be free from reasons for suspicion

The first three of these deal with internal defects. The remaining two deal with external (or ‘hidden’) defects. The objective of these criteria is to ensure there be no chance of forgeries and to mitigate against the likelihood of errors in reports.

1) All narrators must be morally upright and known for their honesty. This is to eliminate all chances of deliberate lies in the name of the Prophet ﷺ. A morally upright Muslim would never lie about Allah and His Messenger ﷺ.

2) Precision in transmission is likewise necessary to mitigate against unintended mistakes. An upright narrator with weak memory, for instance, might not consciously lie but is nonetheless prone to erring when conveying a report.
WORLD

You May Also Like

Guillaume Chaslot
Guillaume Chaslot
@gchaslot
The YouTube algorithm that I helped build in 2011 still recommends the flat earth theory by the *hundreds of millions*. This investigation by @RawStory shows some of the real-life consequences of this badly designed AI.


This spring at SxSW, @SusanWojcicki promised "Wikipedia snippets" on debated videos. But they didn't put them on flat earth videos, and instead @YouTube is promoting merchandising such as "NASA lies - Never Trust a Snake". 2/


A few example of flat earth videos that were promoted by YouTube #today:
https://t.co/TumQiX2tlj 3/

https://t.co/uAORIJ5BYX 4/

https://t.co/yOGZ0pLfHG 5/
TECH , FLAT EARTH
asif
asif
@aj_raja
PAKISTAN-INDIA WATER ISSUES – HOW INDIA STOPPED WATER IN PAKISTAN's CANALS IN 1948

Thread

After partition in 1947, the water system was also bifurcated between Pakistan n India.

India cheated Pakistan when on April 1, 1948, India suddenly n without warning stopped...
1/n


...the supply of waters flowing into Pakistan's Central Bari Doab and Dipalpur Canals.

The boundary award on the partition of the sub-continent had left the headworks of these canals in Indian territory, and in accepting it India had implied her willingness to leave...

2/n


...the historic distribution of common waters undisturbed.

India's action was therefore in flagrant disregard not only of international law n morality, but of her solemn commitments with Pakistan and a gross violation of this country's historical rights over common waters.

3/n

Faced with a threat of utter desolation of millions of acres of fertile land, Pakistan had perforce to sign a document with India in which she agreed to "India's progressively diminishing water supplies to these canals and to the West Punjab government's tapping...

4/n

...alternative resources".

A specific reservation was made in the document with regard to India's claim that she had full property rights over waters flowing into her territory, and could therefore use them as she liked.

The issue was, however, to be examined...

5/n
INDIA
Advertisement
Aditya Todmal
Aditya Todmal
@AdityaTodmal
12 TRADING SETUPS which experts are using.

These setups I found from the following 4 accounts:

1. @Pathik_Trader
2. @sourabhsiso19
3. @ITRADE191
4. @DillikiBiili

Share for the benefit of everyone.

Here are the setups from @Pathik_Trader Sir first.

1. Open Drive (Intraday Setup explained)


Bactesting results of Open Drive


2. Two Price Action setups to get good long side trade for intraday.

1. PDC Acts as Support
2. PDH Acts as


Example of PDC/PDH Setup given
STOCKLEARNINGS , LEARNSTOCKTRADING
Seth Abramson
Seth Abramson
@SethAbramson
(THREAD) Pre-election Russia collusion may take down Trump. It's equally possible the Trumps' pre- and post-election collusion with Saudi Arabia, the UAE, and Israel will do it—a course of collusion also connected to the Kremlin. I explain here. I hope you'll read on and retweet.


1/ I must stress how unbelievably complex the "Grand Bargain" theory of the Trump-Russia case is—a different thing from saying it's not substantiated. It's substantiated in *almost every single particular*—it just *also* happens to be very confusing. Not byzantine—just confusing.

2/ The basics: Saudi Arabia, Israel, and the UAE all view Iran as their chief regional enemy. Iran is propped up by Russia. Therefore the Saudis, Israelis, and Emiratis all need a US government willing to find a way to get the Kremlin to *stop* supporting Iran in the Middle East.

3/ The best way to get Russia to stop supporting Iran—or reduce support—was/is to drop all sanctions on Russia over its 2014 annexation of Crimea, as that'd be worth *trillions* to the Kremlin over the next decade. Everyone knew that Clinton wouldn't do this—and that Trump would.

4/ Per the NYT, on August 3, 2016, Donald Trump Jr. met secretly at Trump Tower with a Saudi and Emirati emissary, George Nader, as well as an Israeli intelligence expert, Joel Zamel, with *significant* ties to both Israeli intelligence *and* Russian oligarchs allied with Putin.
POLITICS
Delilah S. Dawson
Delilah S. Dawson
@DelilahSDawson
Hello, writers! How about a thread on LITERARY AGENTS? How to get one, how to talk to one, how to keep one happy. Spoiler alert: I am 100% pro agent and can't imagine not having one on my side. 1/

Why would you want a literary agent?
* you want to be traditionally published
* you want someone experienced to help guide your career
* you want to learn how to edit like a pro
* you want to sell foreign and movie rights
* you want answers to your newbie questions 2/

Why you might *NOT* want a literary agent:
* you want to self publish
* you're not willing to compromise on your edits
* you don't think their expertise is worth 15% of your advance
I... can't think this way. Literary agents have been crucial to my career. 3/

So, how do you get a literary agent?
1. Have a finished, revised, edited, polished manuscript.
2. Write a query letter for your book
3. Send your query to agents who rep your genre and are open to submissions
4. Repeat steps 1-4 until you're offered representation. 4/

So, let's go through those four steps. First of all, you must have a finished, revised, edited, polished book, and it must be sellable. That is, you can't sell a 600k picture book or a 40k adult Fantasy, etc. You must read extensively in the genre you're writing. 5/
WRITING