1/Politics thread time.
To me, the most important aspect of the 2018 midterms wasn't even about partisan control, but about democracy and voting rights. That's the real battle.
That suggests there is still SOME grassroots support for democracy that transcends partisanship.
We seem to have accepted electoral dysfunction in Florida as a permanent thing. The 2000 election has never really ended.
Bad ballot design led to a lot of undervotes for Bill Nelson in Broward Co., possibly even enough to cost him his Senate seat. They do appear to be real undervotes, though, instead of tabulation errors. He doesn't really seem to have a path to victory. https://t.co/utUhY2KTaR— Nate Silver (@NateSilver538) November 16, 2018
The big worry is that it functioned as a trial balloon.
The GOP abandoned hope of winning over nonwhite voters, and went with the "Sailer Strategy": https://t.co/jBH0K4JUv4 …
Which is why voting rights have become such a central issue.
It's about breaking the Sailer Strategy, and putting to bed the idea that electioneering can make nonwhite voters disappear.
More from Noah Smith
Knowing whether old ideas are more likely to be good requires understanding whether conditions have changed in important ways.
Horse archery was an amazing method of warfare for over a thousand years...then people invented guns, and suddenly this great idea that had stood the test of time became obsolete.
Then again, when underlying conditions don't change much, tried-and-true approaches are probably better.
"Learning the lessons of history" usually just means assuming ergodicity and stationarity in an informal time-series model...
I will be live-tweeting again, and you can also watch video at either the Twitter or Facebook links below!
Kaissar: Every industry gets regulated when it gets big. The question is what kind of regulation Big Tech will get,and whether the companies will be proactive in shaping it.
Kaissar: More profitable companies have higher returns. Why? Maybe it's a risk factor, because more profit = higher risk of getting regulated.
Bershidskyis showing a diagram of GDPR complaince pop-ups. What a massive ill-conceived bureaucratic mess.
Ritholtz: It's 2018 and we're still talking about Facebook privacy settings?! If you're still giving your personal data to Facebook, you just don't care about privacy!
Basically, America, on its own, has a LOT power to stop climate change than almost anyone admits.
2/China now emits far more CO2 than the U.S. It emits almost as much as Europe and the U.S. combined.
3/In fact, even this huge disparity dramatically understates the degree to which China is in the driver's seat of climate change.
China, being still much poorer than us, has much more room to grow its economy. Hence, the emissions gap will only grow larger.
4/This leads to an uncomfortable but unavoidable fact: The battle to halt climate change will be won or lost in China.
America's power - and thus, the power of American politicians, activists, businesses, etc. - to save the planet from climate catastrophe is very marginal.
5/This is just a fact. But it's an uncomfortable one for a people like Americans who are used to thinking that the world lives or dies at their command.
Thus, I see many Americans desperately trying to preserve the illusion of control with respect to climate change.
2/Apu's presence in Springfield represented a basic reality of America in the late 20th and early 21st century: the presence of nonwhite immigrants.
3/As Tomas Jimenez writes in "The Other Side of Assimilation", for my generation, immigrants from India, China, Mexico, and many other countries aren't strange or foreign. On the contrary, they're a
4/But that America I grew up with is fundamentally ephemeral. The kids of immigrants don't retain their parents' culture. They merge into the local culture (and, as Jimenez documents, the local culture changes to reflect their influence).
5/Simpsons character don't change. But real people, and real communities, do. So a character who once represented the diversity that immigrants brought to American towns now represents a stereotype of Indian-Americans as "permanent foreigners".
This is an excellent, short, highly readable, very important book. Every business executive and politician should have a copy.
Why are skilled immigrants so good, and so important?
Because they're the backbone of high-value industries where the U.S. has a dominant position.
If we don't bring skilled immigrants to the United States, high-value industries will migrate to other countries, and America will lose industrial dominance and be a poorer country.
Contrary to popular belief, skilled immigrants - including H-1b workers - RAISE wages for native-born skilled workers.
Because downward wage pressure from competition is more than canceled out by the upward wage pressure from CLUSTERING.
More from Politics
These are my observations based on what I saw and the evidence that’s been collected so far. I reserve the right to adjust my analysis as needed.
Let’s talk about the organization of the coup first. Seeing some people insist that the coup must have been highly planned and coordinated.
Yes and no. This was a #StochasticCoup. We’ll see little evidence of direct communication between Trump and the insurrectionists.
Within the insurrectionists, there was not one group that executed the storming of the Capitol.
Rather, there were a number of smaller groups working independently towards the same goal. I expect you’ll see little evidence that these various groups communicated with each other.
What you will see is detailed planning and coordination within these small groups.
Then there were the joyriders, those Trump supporters who weren’t directly involved in any plotting but who were more than happy to go along for the ride once the coup was in motion.
After four years, the insurrectionists were carefully attuned to Trump’s messaging.
Every tweet and statement of his was treated as marching orders and carefully dissected for meaning.
It’s why shutting down Trump’s Twitter account was so important.
2) All EU leaders watching tomorrow’s vote. Of course they want to avoid a no deal #Brexit BUT they feel the deal - so painfully negotiated between EU and UK - is too fresh to re-open. Clarifications, yes but fundamental renegotiations, no.
3) The EU’s international reputation as a tough deal-maker is at stake here too. If Brussels now suddenly “gives in” to U.K. on EU red lines (eg backstop) then that would weaken the EU’s reputation in future trade negotiations with other non EU countries
4) Also on backstop the EU is unlikely to cave in to favour a relationship with a leaving member state (UK) against the explicit wishes and ignoring the deep concerns of a continuing member: Ireland.
5) Both the EU and the PM signed up to a guarantee to protect the border between Northern Ireland and the Republic of Ireland. If either the U.K. or EU can leave the backstop unilaterally then this clearly is no longer a guarantee.
The one time it functioned as intended, confusingly, was the time it didn't happen: Richard Nixon wasn't impeached! But the impeachment process, which came at the low ebb of party polarization in American history, convinced his party to force him to resign.
Would Republicans force Nixon to resign today?
Oh, you're cute. Thank you. I needed that.
The problem of impeachment is pretty simple: Presidents are leaders of parties. Parties are tied to the political fortunes of presidents. You're asking a party to basically wreck its immediate political future for the good of the system.
This doesn't just have the effect of making impeachment ineffective as a remedy. It's worse than that. It makes impeachment dangerous to the president's party, and gives them a reason to defend him and either normalize or minimize his crimes. As we are seeing right now.
1/ Back in the mid-aughts, I was a Koufax Award-nominated political blogger (I don't know what Drezner was doing then; I first heard of him about a year ago). So I was into the blogosphere pretty deep, as I also ran a second high-traffic blog that was focused on the art world.
2/ The "blogosphere" was an outgrowth of MySpace and LiveJournal, inasmuch as in the heady early days of the internet people suddenly realized that they could engage in private diaristic writing—a very specific subgenre of writing—in the public square, and it was suddenly "okay."
3/ So the blogosphere as such had *nothing* to do with journalism, which needless to say was in a different state just 15 years ago (note: unlike Drezner, I also teach writing and journalism at the university level, so this thread is squarely "in my area," unlike his Post piece).
4/ The blogosphere was a manifestation of the transformation of the public-private binary at the dawn of the internet—and *also* connected to the "creative writing" explosion (what I did a PhD on); in the aughts, creative writing was the fastest-growing discipline *in the world*.
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Good luck with that folks.
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2/ “But they’re different types of cars so they aren’t comparable!” That’s why we put them into our physics based model that simulates EPA range to separate out form factor from battery/drivetrain efficiency.
3/ Even accounting for the fact that the Jaguar iPace is an SUV, it’s far less efficient than the Model 3.
4/ Which means Tesla should be able produce a car of a given range (or at least the drivetrain) for cheaper than its competitors. (This doesn't even take into account that Tesla is likely making batteries for less than its competitors).
5/ Why is the Bolt so efficient? Perhaps it sacrifices performance to achieve it. Either way the “Tesla Killers” look like they’re throwing everything out the window to try & match Tesla performance.