Thread on something really important.
At the outset of the pandemic, @DrMikeRyan called on us to "break the chains of transmission".
We haven't. The chains now number over 100,000,000 people.
Why? A central measure is often overlooked: isolating those exposed to the virus.

The above graph by @Paul5cott compares policy measures around the world on isolation and quarantine.
A lot of focus has been on reducing the random seeding of new chains of transmission through travel.
That's important - but only one part of containing Covid-19 spread.
It sounds simple: if everyone who currently has the virus right now could be kept separate from other people for about two weeks, infections would drop to zero. Pandemic over.
But individuals cannot achieve it alone. Isolation only works within a system of support and enforcement
Survey data shows that a very low percentage of people who are just 'told' to self-isolate actually do it.
A study of 32,000 people in the UK over three months last year found only 18% of them actually kept away from others. In the Netherlands, data indicates it's about 44%.
A large proportion of those who ventured out despite being warned they had been exposed to Covid-19 did so to go to work.
Others have to buy groceries, or medicines, or need something for their child.
It's not just people being dicks -- they need support.
In order to stop chains of transmission, countries around the world have brought in a range of supports and enforcement for self-quarantine -- illustrated by @Paul5cott with data collected by @Patel_Jay_ of @GlobalHealthGP
Meal deliveries, daily check-ups, sick pay, enforcement.
Isolation, including of travellers, can be done at home. But only if the person is kept totally apart from other household members.
If not, then they need to be provided with somewhere like a hotel room to be alone, as in New York, Norway, Denmark, Singapore, Japan, many others.
(Ireland is strange here. The HSE sanctions mixing with other household members for people who have been exposed to Covid-19 -- a leaky isolation policy).
Here's what happens in Australia:
Anyone exposed to Covid-19 is handed a legally-binding quarantine order with instructions on what they can and can't do.
It lays out steep fines for breaking quarantine. The order alone is enough for vast majority to comply, says @NICU_doc_salone
People quarantining are then smothered with support.
"We call them usually every day, we can arrange groceries. If they need to see a GP for something different we can help them with that, if they are alcoholics we can find them support," @NICU_doc_salone told me.
Some places like South Korea use geo-tracking apps. In New York, teams of neighbourhood helpers knock door-to-door, arranging anything that the person in quarantine needs. In Taiwan, they'll organise garbage collection for you.
East Asian countries had the advantage in rolling out these systems of past epidemic experience and strong decentralised public health systems.
But examples in the US show how much can be done if we choose to adjust, like New York's hotel quarantines and neighbourhood health hubs
Here's an incredible figure: in the US, 27% of employees do not have paid sick leave.
This study found that the introduction of two weeks' emergency sick pay due to the pandemic saw a drop of 400 Covid-19 cases -- per day, per state! https://t.co/k9VAscnbyM
Advantage of keeping cases low is that you can surround those people exposed to the virus with every possible support. As cases grow exponentially, becomes exponentially harder to do.
Then, in lieu of targeted confinement, we end up with confinement of all https://t.co/zHFAMf1DcT

More from World

Watch the entire discussion if you have the time to do so. But if not, please make sure to watch Edhem Eldem summarizing ~150 years of democracy in Turkey in 6 minutes (starting on 57'). And if you can't watch it, fear not; I've transcribed it for you (as public service). Thread:


"Let me start by saying that I am a historian, I see dead people. But more seriously, I am constantly torn between the temptation to see patterns developing over time, and the fear of hasty generalizations and anachronistic comparisons. 1/n

"Nevertheless, the present situation forces me to explore the possible historical dimensions of the problem we're facing today. 2/n

"(...)I intend to go further back in time and widen the angle in order to focus on the confusion I  believe exists between the notions of 'state', 'government', and 'public institutions' in Turkey. 3/n

"In the summer of 1876, that's a historical quote, as Midhat Pasa was trying to draft a constitution, Edhem Pasa wrote to Saffet Pasa, and I quote in Turkish, 'Bize Konstitusyon degil enstitusyon lazim' ('It is not a constitution we need but institutions'). 4/n
Niger state shares borders with Zamfara, kebbi, Kaduna & Benin Republic. Terrorists from Niger republic and Burkina faso easily move money and arms across the borders of Kebbi, Zamfara and Benin R into Niger state. According to UN over 900,000 people have been displaced in B'Faso https://t.co/65YEMJhqDp


Niger, Mali and Burkina faso are weak countries populated by Shell terrorists who have now found a safe haven in the forests in Kaduna and Niger state. Birin Gwari, Mokwa forest, Nanati forests, Kanji lake areas.

No decent human resides permanently in forests.

We are facing both external and internal threats from these weak and failed countries we are surrounded with. As a senator you know that a FG police system with less than 300k officers can't actively police the landmass and borders in the North.
Form your state police now!

You and other senators should scrap the FG police system and devote the unaudited security votes and constituency allowance to policing your corridors and forests. Let the airforce bomb them and put your rangers in the forests. Issue an ultimatum for those in the forests to leave

You are all living in a dream if you think the current police structure will become efficient overnight.
Budget, Personnel, Technology, Equipment, Surveillance..It's impossible.
Form your state and community police and flush out the terrorists.

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The chorus of this song uses the shlokas taken from Sundarkand of Ramayana.

It is a series of Sanskrit shlokas recited by Jambavant to Hanuman to remind Him of his true potential.

1. धीवर प्रसार शौर्य भरा: The brave persevering one, your bravery is taking you forward.


2. उतसारा स्थिरा घम्भीरा: The one who is leaping higher and higher, who is firm and stable and seriously determined.

3. ुग्रामा असामा शौर्या भावा: He is strong, and without an equal in the ability/mentality to fight

4. रौद्रमा नवा भीतिर्मा: His anger will cause new fears in his foes.

5.विजिटरीपुरु धीरधारा, कलोथरा शिखरा कठोरा: This is a complex expression seen only in Indic language poetry. The poet is stating that Shivudu is experiencing the intensity of climbing a tough peak, and likening

it to the feeling in a hard battle, when you see your enemy defeated, and blood flowing like a rivulet. This is classical Veera rasa.

6.कुलकु थारथिलीथा गम्भीरा, जाया विराट वीरा: His rough body itself is like a sharp weapon (because he is determined to win). Hail this complete

hero of the world.

7.विलयगागनथाला भिकारा, गरज्जद्धरा गारा: The hero is destructive in the air/sky as well (because he can leap at an enemy from a great height). He can defeat the enemy (simply) with his fearsome roar of war.