A Thread
Joseph Hope, Editor-in-Chief of the New York Times:
Narendra Modi's sole aim is to make India a better Country.If he is not stopped, in the future India will become the most Powerful Nation in the World.. It will surprise the United States, the United Kingdom & Russia

Chile is the poster child for extreme economic inequality in a developed country. I spent time there last year for my book (which has a chapter on Chile) and what I found hardest to understand is why there wasn't more political unrest. Now there

A few choice facts about Chile and inequality:

In Chile, the social security system is basically designed to redistribute wealth from the masses to the rich, because workers are required to put their savings into private investment funds that charge ridiculous fees.

The commitment to private industry runs deep. If the available water is sufficient either for drinking or growing avocados... well, you get the idea.

The result in Chile is two worlds, side by side.

And what is most remarkable is that, for the longest time, even the ostensibly left-wing parties were on board. Chile's socialists basically don't like socialism.

Some quick reactions to the new lockdowns in Europe.

1. The degree of uncertainty is much higher than in the first wave. In the first wave, the (incorrect) belief was that the infection rate would quickly decrease and remain low thereafter.

1️⃣ How the Yemeni Civil War (2014–present) is portrayed in the main stream media

2️⃣ This one is a little different, it hits close to home in many different ways, the Yemeni Civil War is a unique phenomenon in moder warfare, the majority of people don't even know what's really going on and who's fighting who.

3️⃣ The combatants :
Iranian backed Supreme Political Council (Houthis)
  International recognized Government (Hadi-led government)
  South Yemen Nationalists Southern Transitional Council

4️⃣ The (allegedly Turkish and Qatari backed) Islamic State of Iraq and the Levant – Yemen Province (ISIL-YP)
 The (allegedly Iranian and Qatari backed) Ansar al-Sharia and Al-Qaeda in the Arabian Peninsula (AQAP)

5️⃣The so called Supreme political council of Yemen is a Mish mash of bad guys and misfits, Iran supplies the Houthis with arms, drones and ballistic missiles, Hezbollah delivers these arms through shell corporations and Hezbollah operators man the missiles

Why should we be careful when talking about a “jobs bounce-back” in South Africa? - A THREAD.

You don’t get better labour market economists in South Africa than the @NIDS_CRAM team, but the main finding of an “employment bounce-back” seems counterintuitive. What’s going on? 1/n

NIDS-CRAM does NOT show a rebound to pre-COVID employment levels. They report 700,000 job lost between Feb and Oct 2020, this is massive = 3.85% fall (broad definition). The authors of the employment paper say this could be as high as 5.3% or 960,000 jobs.

The authors @joshbudlender @ihsaanbassier (+ Rocco) also show that Oct employment is normally higher than Feb employment, super roughly Oct is plausibly around 102% of Feb. This means it’s plausible 360,000 jobs would have been gained between Feb-Oct *anyway*.

This would mean - within the study parameters - it’s possible COVID has caused up to (an outer outer limit) of 1.32 million job losses when comparing Oct 2020 with what we would have expected it to be in normal times. This is a total disaster in the context of the SA economy.

This is roughly what we should expect from the StatsSA QLFS. This showed 2.2 million jobs lost in first half of 2020, and 543,000 regained in Q3, meaning a loss of just under 1.7 million jobs in first 9 months. We’d definitely expect some more jobs regained in Oct-Dec.