Doesn't matter what's the market cap is - micro or large, the quality of any business is never unseen. You screen through the last 5-10 years of balance sheet and cash flows and you'd know what can and cannot compound wealth. Narrative alone is useless. Numbers have to match.

@harindersnanda @soicfinance Most were bullish on #SeQuent a day before the annual results the other week. Most would have left the train in next few quarters due to ESOP led margin compression on P&L. Playing long innings like Rahul Dravid is not same as watching him play :)

@RemindMe_OfThis in 200 days

"The global natural cosmetics market is expected to be worth $48.04 billion by 2025..... #Biotechnology could be the game-changer for natural beauty lovers – and, more crucially, Planet Earth."

https://t.co/PEvcSXrrW1

#Fermentation | Industry 5.0 Vision 2 🧬

Unseen rule 1 :: whatever be the reason, never justify the valuations of a rising stock price

Unseen rule 2 :: whatever be the reason, never defend the quality/reason of a falling stock price

Unseen rule 3 :: never react in an impulsive manner to a rising/falling stock price

@soicfinance @suru27 Indeed. For later, industry/sector has to be within your circle of competence to judge the turnaround correctly.

Because according to Warren Buffett
"Both our operating and investment experience cause us to conclude that turnarounds seldom turn"

Never make the mistake of selling a great business just because it's overvalued.

1/ Howard Marks once said that before buying an asset, above anything, he wants to know “the amount of optimism that’s in the price.”

All investors can do this with a handy tool: The Reverse DCF.

I'll also leave a download link to my compact DCF Model at the end of this thread.

2/ We all know a regular DCF. But's what a "Reverse DCF"?

If we consider that a DCF is a Linear Equation, we could say the 'X' (The unknown variable) is the Intrinsic Value.

In a Reverse DCF, we start with the Market Price and try to find some other variable, say Sales Growth.

3/ Let's start by taking an example: VST Industries, a Cigarette-maker based in India.

I valued them on my blog a while ago. I'll be retaining the old assumptions, but using the latest financials.

So please note that the Valuation isn't accurate

4/ This is a "Regular DCF" of VST Industries. The Assumptions I've made indicate an Overvaluation.

The Intrinsic Value is Rs. 3,012, but the Market Price is Rs. 3,492.

Let's not dwell on whether this is correct, since we discussed earlier that this isn't an accurate Valuation.

5/ If we want to do a "Reverse DCF" instead, we need to pick a different variable to 'find'. Say, I will pick the Sales Growth numbers.

I will now remove the Sales Growth numbers from the Model and assume that Sales Growth is the same across the years for ease of calculation.

@Gautam__Baid He laid down very similar principles a decade ago in his 1976 letter (Source: https://t.co/6Z5v0qEaIg)

What's amazing is how consistent he's been in following his philosophy even after nearly 5

In @HowardMarksBook's memo early this year, one key thing I realized is how wrong I was to dismiss some businesses because I thought they were overvalued simply after looking at the P/E, P/S ratio etc.

You can't determine a business is overvalued without knowing the in-depth qualitative fundamentals of the business, because otherwise where is your edge? Anyone in the world can simply look at a company's P/E ratio.

I know this seems obvious, but so many people on fintwit are very guilty of this - myself included.

Unless I really know and understand a business, even if it has a seemingly absurd P/E or P/S ratio, I will refrain from concluding it is overvalued. It's just lazy and wrong.

The weird thing about this is that when I'm normally researching a business, I totally understand this about valuation and do in-depth research and determine if it's undervalued. But then I'm quickly dismissive of a tech company that trades at 50x earnings and say it's overvalued