The comment from renowned investor was in a lighter vein. You ought to listen to the tone. He was spot on in comparing the capability and scale of two businesses, as both started around the same time - one could scale up, whilst other couldn't. Let's not read too much into it 🙂

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Still waiting for those ~5 to go bankrupt. Future is unpredictable. We only need a few 100x over 15Y.

Tail-events generate the biggest panic and upside. If you survive the panic w/o jumping off the train, you deserve the 100x in few stocks.

Temperament + Business Analysis = ⤴️

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I like this heuristic, and have a few which are similar in intent to it:


Hiring efficiency:

How long does it take, measured from initial expression of interest through offer of employment signed, for a typical candidate cold inbounding to the company?

What is the *theoretical minimum* for *any* candidate?

How long does it take, as a developer newly hired at the company:

* To get a fully credentialed machine issued to you
* To get a fully functional development environment on that machine which could push code to production immediately
* To solo ship one material quanta of work

How long does it take, from first idea floated to "It's on the Internet", to create a piece of marketing collateral.

(For bonus points: break down by ambitiousness / form factor.)

How many people have to say yes to do something which is clearly worth doing which costs $5,000 / $15,000 / $250,000 and has never been done before.