The DUP is literally entirely at fault for the Irish Sea Border.

Its MPs held the balance of power when the crucial decisions were made, and cast the defining votes which made sure there would be one.

Let us just remember...

1/6

Shortly after the Referendum a DUP MP went on the radio to say there were no checks and the Norway-Sweden border.

He refused to apologise and accept this error even when he was shown pictures of the checks...

2/6

Another DUP MP then *visited* the Norway-Sweden border and argued the UK-Ireland border could be just like it.

Again, she was told clearly that it would only be like it if the UK were as close to the EU as Norway is.

*She then cast votes to make sure it wouldn't be.*

3/6

DUP MPs were then warned *during a parliamentary debate* that too great a distance from the EU could lead to food shortages.

One literally replied: "We'll just go to the chippy".

4/6

The DUP was also constantly warned that any regulatory border for goods would apply in the Irish Sea, because it is easier to apply these things where vehicles are already naturally stopped. Over and over and over again it was told this.

5/6

🚨The new lockdown regulations are here: coming into force on Thursday

The Health Protection (Coronavirus, Restrictions) (England) (No. 4) Regulations 2020

Analysis below as I read them (thread)

https://t.co/adPk9PsE0j

32 pages, 13,891 words...

As expected, "No person may leave or be outside of the place where they are living without reasonable excuse" - back to the language of the Mar 2020 regulations

Again, there is a *non-exhaustive* list (because: "include") of reasonable excuses, now referred to as "exceptions"

What are the exceptions? There are many. There are 13 listed, but a number have sub-categories of exception, particularly Exception 1 (leaving home necessary for certain purposes). Here they are, except I can't fit them into four screen grabs!

Here's number 5

You might notice that these are many more than in the first lockdown [screen shot from first lockdown regs below] - though some have made a reappearance. Basically this is a more detailed and complex set of reasons for people to not stay at home.

Mood among Tory MPs is seriously bad. Even those who think this is the right thing to do now are dismayed that it’s come to this.

“Shambolic. Rudderless ramblings. constituents getting in touch furious or in tears.”

“Grim grim grim”

“I think it could be his Suez”

All a bit late and cobbled too.

Cabinet ministers didn’t know that furlough was being extended or that “Stay At Home” was back until they saw it on the TV.

💥 Conservative minister: “The incompetence is another level. Is this a deliberate destruction of the Tory Party? People only vote for us because they think we don’t care, but are competent. Lose the competence and we’re fucked. We’ve lost the competence. And we are fucked.”

Another minister says: “The science seems sound. The comms in the lead up to this was shocking. What’s the point in having a tight, intimate decision making group when it leaks like a sieve?”

There is also scepticism among Tory MPs about the scary charts from Whitty and Vallance. Is the data driving the decisions or are the charts being rustled up to justify decisions?

BREAKING NEWS Thread: 1/6

From a very reliable source in the 'Tunnel... there will be a UK-EU trade deal agreed next week. I quote:

"Britain has CAVED. Unless someone in Westminster does something really stupid between now and then a deal will be signed."

2/6 this will give the UK access to the Single Market, tariff and quota free BUT with specific sanctions to be put on the UK if we lower standards or move away from the Level Playing Field on state aid etc. This means that

3/6 the UK becomes a rule taker inasmuch as when the EU implement new regulations or standards, the UK MUST also implement those new rules too but without being in the room or being able to vote on drafting the new regulations.

4/6 importantly this agreement does NOT keep the UK in the Customs Union meaning that the worst case scenario of thousands of stranded trucks in Kent is still on the table as are the 30 million customs declarations required between GB and Northern Ireland, not to mention the

5/6 hundreds of millions of new customs declarations required to ship from GB to EU customers.

Also: FISH. The UK will allow EU boats to continue to fish in UK waters, yes French ones too but the UKs quota will be gradually increased by agreement.

Based on history though,

An assessment of Johnson's press conference
Pros:
1. He has finally acted (better late than never)
2. He has extended the furlough scheme
3. He recognises test and trace needs to improve

Cons:
1. Even though coming 6 weeks after the SAGE call, with cases, hospitalisations and dealths now some 10 times as high, the measures are STILL weaker than proposed (e.g. no move to online teaching in universities)

2. No acknowledgement of the failures of the testing system, beyond numbers of tests (e.g. the falling proporttion of contacts being traced) and the need to root it in local public health structures.

3. A call for people to self-isolate, but no mention of the support needed to help people to do what is necessary: empty exhortations in the place of practical help.

4. No reversal of the laissez faire approach which simply hands over responsibility to others - employers, owners, head-teachers etc. - to create COVID safe facilities. No help to make this happen, no inspection to ensure it happens.

If anyone's thinking to spend the weekend fantasising about a left split from Labour, here's an updated summary of why it's crazy ... 1/ Labour is the only route to a left government in Britain. Even Podemos ended up in power as junior partners to PSOE...

2/ 56% support for Scottish independence and Labour on 13% in Holyrood polls mean 2024 is the last chance saloon. If Scotland is out of the UK there'll have to be something akin to the US Democrats, or Popular Front in 36 - until the demographics change

3/ The culture/values conflict is unavoidable and will be intensified inside any left party. Trans rights, migration, Brexit - all the issues that divide the Labour left would divide anything to the left of it: so then there'd be two left alternatives...

4/ What we need is an organised left alliance in the Labour Party - bigger than the SCG and Momentum and based around policy and activism... instead we get the self-defeating project of disaffiliating Unite slice by slice...

5/ The scale of the Covid and climate crises mean even traditional social-democrats are having to re-think - just as French liberals did in the 1930s. That means an anti-capitalist left in Labour has to engage constructively...

A short personal reflection on what happened yesterday.

I wanted to wait a bit before saying this as I think yesterday was for those who experienced the sharpest end of the disastrous breakdown between the Labour Party and Jewish people during the past 5 years.

I started talking about Labour antisemitism here in 2017 I think. My key aim was to try and act as a bridge between the left of the Jewish community and the left of the Labour Party. I used my platform on social media to do it and quite quickly I developed some back channels...

... to who I thought were sensible people in Jeremy Corbyn's office and Momentum. I kept those channels going for quite a long time. I found this paragraph from emails I exchanged in Spring 2018 with Laura Murray in Corbyn's office. It now seems quite prescient.

As I delved more into the issues and heard, privately, what was going on in the movement itself, I slowly and regrettably came to the conclusion that the issue was so serious it needed an "independent body" to come in. It was in Autumn 2018 that @antisemitism approached me...

... to assist in making a submission to the @EHRC to try and persuade them to enter the fray. I was skeptical, given the the UK's human rights organisations had stayed almost entirely silent (to this day, to their shame) on the issue, though I knew it was utterly necessary...

1/ Today’s Spending Review delivers on the priorities of the British people.

This thread covers 𝘀𝗼𝗺𝗲 𝗼𝗳 𝘁𝗵𝗲 𝗸𝗲𝘆 𝗮𝗻𝗻𝗼𝘂𝗻𝗰𝗲𝗺𝗲𝗻𝘁𝘀 from Departments across Government. #SR20

2/ This Spending Review delivers a historically high @UKHomeOffice budget which will help them to keep people safe and deliver new border and immigration arrangements. #SR20

3/ We’re providing over £76 billion for @educationgovuk to meet the government’s commitment to level up education standards across the country and drive economic growth through improving the skills pipeline; levelling up productivity and supporting people into work. #SR20

4/ We will enable @DWP to deliver efficient frontline services and ensure that support is targeted where it's needed most.

The new 3-year long £2.9 billion Restart programme will provide intensive, tailored support to over 1million unemployed people and help them find work #SR20

5/ @DCMS will increase economic growth and productivity through improved digital connectivity and data infrastructure.

We'll grow and evolve our sectors particularly those most affected by Covid-19 which include culture, sport, civil society and the creative industries. #SR20

SNP thread

1. Scotland's independence rested on the UK staying in the single market - that is why we saw repeated Brexit related litigation in the Scottish courts.

2. If an independent Scotland wished to join the EU, a hard border between Scotland & England would be required to protect the single market & prevent migrants using Scotland as a route into England.

3. Then there are the issues re currency & debt which would need to be settled before EU membership became a serious proposal.

Many in the SNP realise this, hence the divisions we're witnessing.

4. Just as the Brexit Party popularity waned after mission accomplished, the SNP's popularity rests on campaigning, rather than achieving what they're campaigning for.

Polls show that a hard border isn't popular in a country that relies heavily on tourism.

5. The SNP would have been better placed to set their sights lower & supported an Efta/EEA Brexit, but they went all out to stop the UK exiting the EU and ultimately lost.

A hollowed out cause is all that remains for the SNP, with no realistic prospect of success.

1/ Some EU frustration at UK griping over trade problems and suggestions Brussels needs to improve its attitude to make the relationship work better. There's a feeling of déjà vu, that the UK never really accepted the practical reality of the deal it wanted and still doesn't.

2/ In particular there's exasperation that the UK is moaning about the deal not including arrangements that it ruled out itself to keep its own red lines intact. It's seen as a pattern of behaviour - first there was visa-free travel for musicians, now it's shellfish.

3/ EU sources say the lack of provisions on shellfish exports was brought up numerous times in the talks as a concern. But the UK refused to engage, as it did on wider SPS issues, over fears of 'being drawn into the EU's regulatory sphere'.

4/ The EU has rules vis-a-vis third countries, they say, and the UK knew this. Indeed, as they see things it's the British attitude that needs a reset. 'The problem is it wants to be a better third country than others, and that’s not an option.'

5/ That's seen as particularly rich after the UK turned down the EU's offer for a much closer relationship in pursuit of a 'Canada-style' one. Recent complaints perpetuate concerns the UK still hasn't really come to terms with the sovereignty/access trade-off.

1/8 Britain is in almost complete lockdown. Nine months since the first. Europe is closing its borders to the British. Across Europe the pandemic is worsening. The US has over 300,000 dead. Far from getting better, the situation in the West is getting worse. The West has failed.

2/8 At what point will the West wake up to the fact this is an historic crisis of Western government, society and culture? Without a vaccine, the West has shown that it cannot deal with the virus. It has been forced to admit defeat and live with it. And it is losing the battle.

3/8 The West likes to think it is cosmopolitan. Wrong. It is increasingly provincial in its mentality. East Asian societies have conquered Covid-19. We barely even acknowledge the fact. We desperately try to ignore that China has succeeded where we have catastrophically failed.

4/8 If the West was cosmopolitan it would seek to learn from East Asia, ask why it is successful. Yet the worse things get, the less curious the West has become about East Asia. This is the story of the West as a failing, self-absorbed, inward-looking culture and civilization.

5/8 The success of East Asia, with China at its heart, has many explanations including: 1. Competent and strategic government; 2. Great respect amongst the people for government and authority; 3. A deep commitment to society and social bonds rather than selfish individualism.

There's a tragic irony to Johnson's love of Churchill.

When Churchill became prime minister, he said: "I have nothing to offer but blood, toil, tears and sweat". He was honest about the severity of the situation and what it entailed. He didn't pretend everything would magically be alright.

Johnson's approach is the exact opposite. He runs from bad news like a dog from fireworks. He invents nonsense timetables by which everything will be fine.

He assumes the public need constant good news and sacrifices his own trustworthiness in order to provide it - it'll be over in six weeks, by Easter, by summer, by Christmas, by February, whatever.

It's equivalent to Churchill using his first speech as PM to insist the war will be over by Christmas.