BC TRADING
Saved by @Alex1Powell

You're about to invest in the next biggest company to list on the stock exchange. You dream of a luxury island & a private jet - but you end up eating canned food instead.

Here's a guide to the insider secrets of IPOs [Thread]

 Hold on, what is an IPO? Indian Police Officer?

No, it's an Initial Public Offering

It's when a private company issues stock to the public to raise capital. Facebook, Airbnb & Apple are IPO companies

It's not just US companies. I worked on IPOs in London, Johannesburg & Lagos
"The Roadshow/ Marketing"

The IPO process can be long!

The company hires a few investment banks to go out & sell the story to investors. Think of it as a series of dates. Do you tell her you leave towels on the floor on the first date? No.

Investment banks sell the highlights
Pro-tip: NEVER invest into a company purely off the company roadshow materials. Having spent hours curating these docs - the wording is ALWAYS massaged.

Your go-to is the prospectus - the Bible for an IPO

Here's the Airbnb prospectus - check it out
https://t.co/jSxk2zwfuZ
What should I be looking for in the prospectus?

Just like your cheating ex - don't focus on what he's saying, focus on what isn't being said.

- Forecasts: always take these with a pinch of salt
- Key risks: dry but important
- Why we need the money: MOST IMPORTANT!
Whenever you see "use of proceeds will be used for general corporate purposes" just know someone is getting paid racks.

If there's a pipeline of acquisitions or a perfectly crafted growth plan - great! If the uses of capital are for day to day activities - it's worth pausing.
Let's take a look at the Airbnb IPO. UP OVER 100% ON IPO DAY!!

That's amazing! Surely everyone should be celebrating. This is what success looks like right? Management must be popping champagne.

No - this is a complete fuck up... read on
Whenever company prices rocket up on IPO it's called a "first day pop". Less flattering term is "money left on the table".

You hire me to sell your house. I sell it for $1m.

The same day the new buyer RE-SELLS your house to someone else for $2m.

You should be pissed off.
Why didn't you get $2m in the first place?!

(Besides investment banks getting it wrong...)

1. IPOs are generally underpriced to fill up the order book
2. Retail investors have fuelled the IPO pop
3. Companies price lower to avoid a failure
4. The market right now is HOT
1. IPOs are underpriced

Investment banks are also underwriters. This means if they don't sell their blocks of stock they have to pick it up themselves.

Wait, isn't that an incentive to underprice... sadly, yes

Here's all the banks on the Airbnb IPO - literally everyone
2. Retail investors are driving demand

Managing the order book is tricky. You need to balance liquidity/ trading volume with price tension. Short term investors create price action at the expense of volatility.

Recently, retail investors are far more active & drive up demand.
3. Companies don't want to fail

"Under promise/ over deliver"

Failed IPOs can happen for a number of reasons but most of all it's a fucked up signal to the market.

Many times it's not the companies fault, it's terrible timing resulting in valuation expectations not being met.
4. The IPO market is HOT

In a market fueled through Fed stimulus, stock splits and a deep disconnect of forward valuation multiples to the real economy - the market for equity issuances is attractive (albeit risky)

In short: stocks are fucking expensive right now
How much money do investment banks make from capital raising?

Nothing major - a few billion $

Underwriting fees in Hong Kong are as low as 2.5% on the size of the IPO but I have seen clients pay more than 4% on IPOs

There's A LOT of money out there but it is VERY competitive
I'm still reading this thread... I want to be an investment banker listing companies and running IPOs!

Sure it's exciting to switch on Bloomberg & see your company trading or read about your IPO on the front page of the financial times BUT most of the IPO process is VERY dry...
It's clear the IPO process is broken, how do we fix it?

Enter the wave of direct listings, hybrid listings & SPACs

A SPAC is basically an empty vehicle that lists on the exchange which promises to fill up passengers (companies) within a short space of time

Massive business!
Should I invest in companies that aren't making money?

Sure - but be VERY selective

Cash burn rates are very important especially when it ends up in higher leverage (debt) or more equity issuances

Traditional "value" investing has underperformed growth during this bull market
Can I always make money investing in an IPO?

No!

For every hot listing, there's another that doesn't get talked about which is a black hole that soaks up all your capital and returns less than nothing...

Here are a couple NASDAQ IPOs
I need to read more on IPOs - I need more!
here's another thread on IPOs which deals with Aramco
https://t.co/6k5Ap1bTiG
If SOMEHOW you made it to the end! Shout-out, I appreciate you!!

For more IPO analysis & terrible jokes, feel free to join our Telegram channel:
https://t.co/v3uNq6IvBk

More from Koshiek Karan

Koshiek Karan
Koshiek Karan
@iamkoshiek
Bonds explained in 90 seconds! [Thread]

Wait, what's a bond?

Very simply, it's a loan.

Instead of borrowing money from a bank, a company (or government) will borrow from investors. So investors will give the company money & in exchange they get paid interest (called coupons)

Fancy term for the IOU is "bond issuance"


I'm an investor, how do the mechanics work?

Company sells you a bond for $100 and promises you 5% every year for 3 years. They also pay you $100 at the end.

Yr 1: $5
Yr 2: $5
Yr 3: $5 + $100

That's $115 (or a 15% return) after 3 years. Right?

The real return is closer to 10%


Why are my returns so much lower?

$100 today is worth more than $100 in 3 years from now - yes, inflation!

Even at a modest 1.5% inflation each year, the $100 you give up today is worth less than $96 in 3 years from now.

ILBs (inflation linked bonds) try & help solve this.


How come bonds are always quoted in yields (%s) instead of actual prices like shares?

Bonds have different maturities* & coupons - quoting a percentage makes it easy to compare different bonds & compare against other assets.

*Maturity = time to get paid back (3yrs in example)
BONDS
Koshiek Karan
Koshiek Karan
@iamkoshiek
Here are 20 of my best threads from 2020 covering personal finance, entrepreneurship, economics & finance, investment banking ++ useful resources.

Massively grateful to everyone who took time out to read, comment & share these across the year. I really appreciate you.

[Thread]

1. Breaking-in – study notes, free textbooks & past


2. Breaking-in – the job connector


3. Breaking-in – book smart vs. street


4. Personal Finance – MEGA Property
TWITTER
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Don Petty Cash
Don Petty Cash
@iamkoshiek
Contemplating quitting your corporate job to become your own boss? [Thread]

Money

Making money is much easier when you have money. More importantly, having dry powder buys you time.

Starting with anything less than 6 months salary can be suicide. Bonus if you can get to a year saved up.

Flicking the switch on monetizing a new business isn't instant.

The fine print

Scrape through your employment contract to check for non-compete clauses, lock-in periods for approaching competitors, policy on recruiting existing employees.

Check what the notice period is, number of leave days you have to cash & how to transfer your pension.

IP

NEVER work on your personal business using a company device. Also resist the urge to send that sexy excel model to your personal email. Imagine chilling in Pollsmoor for a workbook.

Many companies run a check when you resign to check what you recently emailed & printed.

Skills

Level up as much as you can. Make a detailed checklist of everything you want to master before you bounce. Ideal skills are versatile, resilient and future-proof.

The more advanced your skills, the better your chances of someone paying you for those abilities.
ALL
Koshiek Karan
Koshiek Karan
@iamkoshiek
Running a small company or need cash for your side hustle? Here's the ultimate capital raising guide [Thread]

Ways to raise capital:

1. Bootstrapping
2. Bank Debt
3. Working Capital/ Revolving Facilities
4. Angle Investors
5. Venture Capital
6. Private Equity
7. Crowdfunding
8. Government Agencies
9. Get a Business Partner
10. Funding competitions

1. Bootstrapping

The cheapest way of funding. Build the company with savings & family contributions. Privilege is a massive factor in getting off the ground.

Jeff Bezos' parents ploughed $245k into his e-commerce startup. Bill Gates' parents funded his founding company.

2. Bank Debt

Banks take credit risk which means they're often fucking conservative. They will focus on your ability to repay the debt & pricing depends on the probability of you defaulting*

*Pro-tip: don't use bank funding to frequent strip clubs, use shareholder money instead

3. Drawdown facilities

Probably the most underused, useful type of funding. You can borrow against the assets of your company for really cheap. Most companies have short-term liquidity issues

I have worked on deals where these type of facilities were used to buy small companies
ALL
Koshiek Karan
Koshiek Karan
@iamkoshiek
Step by step guide on how to buy/ sell tweets

You're essentially minting a tweet, creating a NFT, transacting on the blockchain & settling payment in ETH


NFT is a non-fungible token

Fancy term for a digital certificate for intellectual property. Think of it like an autograph. Someone pays for your autograph and keeps it as an investment.

Your autograph (NFT) here is a digital certificate of your tweet.

What info is on the digital certificate?

The tweet remains on Twitter under your account. The digital certificate contains metadata of the original tweet.

Metadata = when you posted the tweeted, the time, contents, your digital signature from your crypto wallet

Here's the steps:

1. Verification & Tweet Listing
Login to https://t.co/2UhT8QJTFQ so Twitter can verify which tweets are yours

2. Set up crypto wallet
Add the metamask extension to your browser to interact with cryptocurrency https://t.co/59kxXX5JUt

3. Review & accept offers
TRADING TWEETS

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Trader knight
Trader knight
@Traderknight007
THE TRADER'S EDGE: THINKING IN PROBABILITIES

Casinos make consistent profits day after day and year after year, doing something random

At the same time, most traders believe that the outcome of the market's behavior is not random,yet can't produce consistent profits

Thread 🧵


What casino owners ,professional traders know is that probable outcomes can also produce consistent results if you " Have an edge" and trade on a large enough sample size.

The best traders treat trading like a numbers game.

1. To illustrate, let's look at the game of blackjack-


In blackjack, the casinos have approximately a 4.5-percent edge over the player.

This means that casinos will make profit over a large enough sample size, even after several winning streaks and big profits of many players.

At the end of the day, week, month, or year, the casino always ends up with approximately 4.5 percent of the total amount wagered.

That 4.5 percent might not sound like a lot, but let's put it in perspective.

Suppose a total of $100 million dollars is wagered collectively at all of a casino's blackjack tables over the course of a year. The casino will net $4.5 million.

What casino owners and pro traders understand about the nature of probabilities is that each individual hand played
TRADING
Fabiana Cecin \U0001f3f4 \U0001f339
Fabiana Cecin 🏴 🌹...
@fabianacecin
I'm having difficulty seeing the need for any other currency in the world other than G$.

If it works, and it is decentralized, then why would we need more than one global-reach currency?

If it does the job perfectly, then why do we need another?

I don't mean there won't be others. What I mean is that maybe Crypto UBI will be like the existing non-democratic crypto market ranking. There will be a first-place market cap amount, and exponential decay to the #2, #3, #4, etc.

This is in contrast to the simplistic view where we assume there will be X systems and they all have more or less the same abstract Y market cap or reach, and they all add up to an integrated system with X*Y market cap.

All you have to do is design the controls the way they want to be designed. If you don't introduce some unneeded damage in it, then there won't be the need to come up with another system that fixes the damage and actually does complete "the system" that we will use.

E.g. Bitcoin would have worked, except it introduced the damage that is Proof-of-Work, which means it is unusable and will be replaced by Ethereum, which will use PoS, thus fixing the damage.
TRADING
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JayneshKasliwal
JayneshKasliwal
@JayneshKasliwal
𝗡𝗶𝗳𝘁𝘆-𝗕𝗮𝗻𝗸𝗻𝗶𝗳𝘁𝘆 𝗢𝗽𝘁𝗶𝗼𝗻 𝗕𝘂𝘆𝗶𝗻𝗴 𝗦𝘁𝗿𝗮𝘁𝗲𝗴𝘆

Complete Backtest and Indicator link

🧵 A Thread 🧵

𝗦𝗲𝘁𝘂𝗽:
🔸 Monthly Option Buying
🔸 50 ema on 3 min timeframe
🔸 Supertrend 10 , 3
🔸 Chart : Banknifty , Nifty Futures as we backtested on futures
🔸 Entry 9:20 to 3:00
🔸 Max 3 Entries per day
🔸 Premium nearest to 200 Rs only

[2/18]

Why Monthly Option buying ?
🔸 Less theta decay compared to weekly options
🔸 Less Volatility
🔸 Supertrend and MA Settings
[3/18]


🔸 Indicator Link
🔸 Click on the below 𝘭𝘪𝘯𝘬 -> 𝘈𝘥𝘥 𝘵𝘰 𝘍𝘢𝘷𝘰𝘶𝘳𝘪𝘵𝘦𝘴 -> 𝘈𝘥𝘥 𝘰𝘯 𝘊𝘩𝘢𝘳𝘵 from favourites and start using it !

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𝗜𝗻𝗱𝗶𝗰𝗮𝘁𝗼𝗿 𝗦𝗲𝘁𝘁𝗶𝗻𝗴𝘀 :
🔸 Max 6 Trades per day ( Both CE and PE buy)
🔸 Timings 9:20 am to 3:00 pm
🔸 Supertrend : 10,3
🔸 Moving Average 50 ema
[5/18]
ALL , TRADING , A OPTION BUYING INDICATOR
Vikrant
Vikrant
@Trading0secrets
My swing cash strategy ☢️
(In simple language)

1⃣ #stock selection process - always choose that stock which are consolidating near all time high

(Because whenever stock will give all time high breakout then it will easily give 20/30% return in 1/2 months

2⃣Volume analysis - In that consolidating period volume should be high of up move days then down move days. And last 3/4 month volume of accumulation is must higher then previous days.

3️⃣ fund diversification - always deploy your capital in 3/4 stocks, not more then that or not less then 3.

And, your 3/4 stocks must be from different strong sectors.

4⃣comunding magic - If you hold 10 stocks then if 2 stocks will give 100% return then portfolio impact is 20% only. (here time period is 8/15 months)

If you hold 3 stocks out of them 2 will give 40% then ur portfolio impact is 25%
(Here time period is 1/3 months)

5⃣sectors analysis - always choose that sector stocks which are near support or breakout stage.

If any stocks is out of nifty sector then u can open stock scanner website and check their peer charts.If out of 5 ,3 are strong then u can select that
TRADING STRATEGIES , TRADING , ALL
Emperor\U0001f451
Emperor👑
@EmperorBTC
Crypto Day-Trading Secret Strategy.

SIMPLE. HIGH PROFIT. NO NONSENSE.

One of the best strategies for Scalping crypto.

Share it to help all beginners.

(A THREAD)🚀🚀


We will use three basic indicators.

1. Pivot Points
2. Stoch RSI
3. VWAP

Note- This strategy will have a MUCH higher probability of success if basic Price action, volume and Candlestick pattern is kept in mind.

USE THE STRATEGY:

I will introduce the tools and then explain the strategy.

I Will talk about the calculations to arrive at the indicators separately.

IMPORTANT- Don't use the indicators alone.
Eg. Stoch RSI has less than 26% hit rate so you can't use it alone to trade.

Tool 1- Pivot Points:

They are reversal points based the historical prices.
Go to the indicators tab and type 'Pivot point standard'

The settings to be used have been disclosed in the pic below.

Note- You can choose your own settings but I have disclosed the ones I use.


This is what they will Look like.

Ignore All notations and just remember.
ALL the lines are Support or Resistance lines
(Lines of Interest)

It doesn't matter if it's been denoted as P,R or S.

We will learn how to use them below, practically.
TRADING

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Billy Bostickson \U0001f3f4\U0001f441&\U0001f441 \U0001f193
Billy Bostickson 🏴👁&👁 ...
@BillyBostickson
Tip from the Monkey
Pangolins, September 2019 and PLA are the key to this mystery
Stay Tuned!


1. Yang


2. A jacobin capuchin dangling a flagellin pangolin on a javelin while playing a mandolin and strangling a mannequin on a paladin's palanquin, said Saladin
More to come tomorrow!


3. Yigang Tong
https://t.co/CYtqYorhzH
Archived: https://t.co/ncz5ruwE2W


4. YT Interview
Some bats & pangolins carry viruses related with SARS-CoV-2, found in SE Asia and in Yunnan, & the pangolins carrying SARS-CoV-2 related viruses were smuggled from SE Asia, so there is a possibility that SARS-CoV-2 were coming from
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SK
SK
@sk_diary1
A #story from #Thiruvilayadal puranam- one of divine leelas of Bhagwan Shiva

#threadseries #madurai

Koodal Kaandam

Story 21 - it is about how stone elephant came to life and ate sugarcane - When Raja Abhisheka Pandyan met Ellam Valla Siddhar

கல்யானைக்கு கரும்பருத்திய படலம்


Raja Abhisheka Pandiyan went ahead to meet Ellam Valla Siddhar on the premises of the temple.On seeing the arrival of Raja, people surrounding Siddhar moved back. Abhisheka Pandiyan introduced himself to Siddhar &asked about his whereabouts.Also his purpose of visit to Madurai.

Raja asked why he performed magical acts, does he expect anything from him or people of Madurai.

Siddhar laughed & replied to Raja that he was from Kasi. He had heard a lot about Madurai in Kashi.Also told that this place is a Mukti Kshetram,so he had come to stay here.

Siddhar asked Raja if he has the capability &power to give anything that he asks for. Siddhar told King that he has power to do things even if he think of it.Siddhar asked King to ask whatever he wants & it would be provided, whatever these people had asked, they were granted.


Abhisheka Pandyan was shocked to receive such a reply from Siddhar,& he decided to test the power of this Siddhar. By that time, Raja saw a person in crowd having Sugarcane.

Raja took Sugarcane from that person.
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Justin Kan
Justin Kan
@justinkan
1/ Throughout my startup career, I’ve seen many founders have an aversion to sales. This is a mistake that can kill your startup.

2/ Sales is often viewed as either a saving grace or proof that the product isn’t good enough (because it should sell itself). Neither are ever true. Some common mistakes that result in...

3/ Mistake 1: Hire a sales rep before reaching product/market fit to get your initial batch of customers. This is a mistake because founders need to work through their MVP with early adopters to truly understand what it is they’re selling.

4/ Mistake 2: Reach product/market fit, need to scale, and rely entirely on self-serve. For enterprise products that require big commitments and internal shifts, almost no product is self-explanatory enough to sell itself.

5/ Mistake 3: Make a first sales hire who isn’t scrappy enough to help mold the sales process from scratch. Some salespeople are amazing at their jobs, but not cut out to establish the processes that others end up following. This skillset is what @rdedatta calls a “sales ninja”.
STARTUPS
Nikita Poojary
Nikita Poojary
@niki_poojary
One of the most successful stock trader with special focus on cash stocks and who has a very creative mind to look out for opportunities in dark times

Covering one of the most unique set ups: Extended moves & Reversal plays

Time for a 🧵 to learn the above from @iManasArora

What qualifies for an extended move?

30-40% move in just 5-6 days is one example of extended move

How Manas used this info to book


Post that the plight of the


Example 2: Booking profits when the stock is extended from 10WMA

10WMA =


Another hack to identify extended move in a stock:

Too many green days!

Read
SCREENERS , A SCREENER
Dr Catherine Pemble is #SocialDistancing
Dr Catherine Pemble is...
@CatherinePemble
Right, screw it. Here's a thread on *that* FBLive by Alex Cairnie about #Govanhill. Lets do a watch-through shall we? (Mind, I'm a resident of Govanhill, and a sociologist. I'm also 5'3, and a visibly queer woman so if half his claims are true I should be living in terror)

00:30: Welcomes viewers and uses points out that his videos are only getting attention b/c they're 'horrific'. Directs folk to his Youtube page. So already clout hunting.

1:08: "I've been warned to stay out of Govanhill. I'm a marked man" (proceeds to use a beanie as a disguise)

1:30 "Laughing and joking aside, here's somebodys front garden." Proceeds to show litter and claim its thrown from windows and this is 'common'. I know a handful of streets with litter issues like this, but its neither common nor unique to #govanhill and other deprived areas.

2:10 "Don't be under any illusion I'm only showing you the bad bits" - only shows you the bad bits.

3:45: He's had offers of help, but hes said no because hes not responsible for 'anybody elses safety' Good lord.

5:01: "Its not that bad. But its not all good either" -Correct

6:00: TW: child abuse - He starts claiming to have been contacted by a health professional and told about child abuse 'in the area'. Huge ethical issues here as the 'professional' who has 'been in the game a long time' is reporting to Facebook Dude and not authorities.
HEALTH


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