BC TRADING
Saved by @Alex1Powell

One of the favourite case studies that come up in my BFBV course at MDI is Relaxo. Every year I ask students to study this case which I had done along with @ravirpurohit in 2013 by assigning these

 Then I update them on my thinking about this business, management and valuation. This year, I spoke that (which I won't discuss here) and also about some additional lessons. Listing them here:
The importance of distinguishing between things that are under your control and those that you cannot control.
Things you can control include defining what kinds of business you will invest into and which ones you will ignore, how you will make conservative estimates of probable earning power a few years from now and how you will restrain yourself from projecting very high exit multiples.
The one thing over which you have no control is the changes in multiple because that will be decided by the market, which is like a very moody person.
If your expected return REQUIRES significant multiple rerating BEYOND what's warranted from a pure bond valuation (non-growing perpetuity) multiple, then you are exposing yourself to outcomes dependent on how OTHERS will behave.
On the other hand, if your expected return is coming primarily from dividend and earnings growth component and not a lot from multiple increases, then you are on much safer ground.
Expecting a great business selling at below a bond valuation multiple to sell for at least the bond valuation multiple is reasonable. Don't ask for much more and the chances that you will be disappointed go way down.
When you pay a high entry multiple for an outstanding business, then you have to count on REMAINING lucky - in the sense that you cannot really afford significant multiple declines and yet that is what happens when high PE stocks with embedded high earnings growth expectations.
Many of them end up experiencing a slow down in the growth or even a decline in earnings. If that latter situation transpires, then you will get a double whammy as EPS goes down AND PE multiple also contracts.
In contrast, when you buy a great business (Relaxo was one) at a BELOW bond valuation, then you only have to get lucky ONCE SOMETIME IN THE NEXT 5 YEARS (for the multiple to rise) to earn a good return.
It's far better to position yourself to BENEFIT from good luck than get UNNECESSARY exposure to bad luck that can result in value destruction.
If you use this framework, then you will have lots of errors of OMISSION but far fewer errors of COMMISSION. Errors of commission destroy capital and meaningful destruction can set you back by a decade or totally take you out.
It's ok to make errors of OMISSION and be paranoid about making errors of COMMISSION. And yet, no matter how careful you are, there will be errors of commission.
When they occur you have to act and you have to act fast. You know what's to be done. And then you have to move on. You will quantify the loss, frame it as a tuition fee and move on, and resolve never to make the same type of error again.

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Fake chats claiming to be from the Irish African community are being disseminated by the far right in order to suggest that violence is imminent from #BLM supporters. This is straight out of the QAnon and Proud Boys playbook. Spread the word. Protest safely. #georgenkencho


There is co-ordination across the far right in Ireland now to stir both left and right in the hopes of creating a race war. Think critically! Fascists see the tragic killing of #georgenkencho, the grief of his community and pending investigation as a flashpoint for action.


Across Telegram, Twitter and Facebook disinformation is being peddled on the back of these tragic events. From false photographs to the tactics ofwhite supremacy, the far right is clumsily trying to drive hate against minority groups and figureheads.


Declan Ganley’s Burkean group and the incel wing of National Party (Gearóid Murphy, Mick O’Keeffe & Co.) as well as all the usuals are concerted in their efforts to demonstrate their white supremacist cred. The quiet parts are today being said out loud.


The best thing you can do is challenge disinformation and report posts where engagement isn’t appropriate. Many of these are blatantly racist posts designed to drive recruitment to NP and other Nationalist groups. By all means protest but stay safe.
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il Capo Of Ethereum
il Capo Of Ethereum
@CryptoCapo_
As a former professional poker player, I'm very clear about the importance of psychology in investing/trading.

You can have a very solid strategy, but if the mental aspect fails, everything fails, no matter how good you are.

Thread 👇

In this thread I will briefly describe the most important aspects of trading psychology, and give some simple tips to try to improve them.

It's good to always be aware of these aspects, to be able to detect them and act in time.

1) FEAR

This is one of the most important. It can make you get out of a position at the wrong time.

One of the main reasons you can have fear is because you are putting more at risk than you are willing to lose.

Tip: reduce the size of your position until you are comfortable.

2) GREED

Greed can be even worse than fear. It leads you to be overpositioned and to destroy your average entry.

Tip: learn to conform to what you have. Practice gratitude for everything that comes your way. Remember that the most important thing is to stay in the game.

3) TILT

This is well known in poker. There are many reasons why tilt can appear (downswings, injustice, mistakes...)

Tilt takes you away from your perfect strategy. From your A game.

After a losing streak you may think that the market is being unfair to you.
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In my 20 years of trading I have noticed this cycle play out again and again with traders that "make it":

1. Overconfidently reach for returns
2. Get humbled by the market
3. Simplify + concentrate on clear, high probability edges.

1/n

Nearly everyone starts with a lack of respect for how hard it is to consistently make money trading.

That leads them to pass over high-probability sources of returns in favor of more marginal ideas.

Or they overcomplicate the trading of a good edge.

2/n

Here's an example...

It is 2015. You look at a simple strategy.

You hold an equal dollar exposure to:
- Cap Weighted US Stocks (VTI)
- 20+ Yr US Treasury Bonds (TLT)
- Gold (GLD)

And rebalance each month.

(I've extended back a bit with mutual fund prices.)

3/n


It made money consistently with a few blips.

You'd have 4x your money from 1997 to 2015.

It makes sense. It's harnessing two big sources of risk premia (equity + duration).

It diversifies across 3 macro assets that tend to outperform in different econ environments

4/n

But, naturally, you turn your mind to how you could do better...

And here is where it gets dangerous!

There are good ways to try to "do better", and there are bad ways to try to "do better".

5/n
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Aditya Todmal
Aditya Todmal
@AdityaTodmal
Technical Analysis and 3 Strategies to deploy for Aggressive, Moderate, and Conservative Traders.

🧵 Weekly Bank Nifty Analysis for 8th December Expiry:


To form a view, let's have a look at:

1. Multi-timeframe Technical Analysis
2. Option Chain Data

Also, 3 strategies to deploy for:

1. Aggressive Traders (2.6%)
2. Moderate Risk Traders (1.3%)
3. Low-Risk Traders (0.8%)


1. Technicals

Let's start by doing some basic technical analysis.

We'll look at:

• Weekly charts.
• Daily charts.
• Hourly / 60 min charts.
• 15 min charts.

1. Weekly-

• The market has given 4 continuous green closes, so not expecting a big momentum on upside.

• This week my view is that it can take a pause.

• Longer term trend is super bullish.

• Any dip will towards 41800 will be a retest, and should be used to go long.


2. Daily:

• Candlestick pattern—Hanging Man

• Chart Pattern—Breakout Failure

• A pin bar candle is very powerful but only after a downmove.

• Here it forms near the top of upmove.

• Means some sellers are present. Below 43000 can sell calls above 43600 for the week.
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Zerodha
Zerodha
@zerodhaonline
ChartIQ charts on Kite web just got an upgrade with custom timeframe charts, new indicators, backtesting from charts, and much more.

Here’s how you can switch to the new version of ChartIQ: https://t.co/rhXrQ330G7

A thread on all the new features 👇


Custom timeframe charts

Charts with timeframes of 75 and 125 minutes were amongst the most popular feature requests. With the custom timeframe feature, you can now not only access 75 and 125-minute charts, but you can also do so for any timeframe of your choice.


Download historical data in CSV

You can now download chart data to Excel to run your own analyses.


Backtesting from charts

@StreakTech allows you to create and backtest trading strategies without any coding. Streak is now integrated with Kite charts. Clicking on the Streak icon will start a backtest of widely used strategies with the indicators applied on the charts.


Shortcut keys for various functions

Chart shortcuts are now available on ChartIQ 8. Shortcuts can be used to quickly perform actions such as invoking the order window, accessing drawing tools, zooming, etc.
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I've always appreciated his outspokenness.

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IT WAS RISHI KANADA WHO GAVE THE ATOMIC THEORY & TALKED ABOUT THE GRAVITY OF EARTH, 2600 YEARS BEFORE AN APPLE FELL IN FRONT OF NEWTON'S EYES:

Scientists of the modern world credit an English scientist John Dalton (1766 CE -1844 CE) for the Atomic Theory.


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Where to begin?

So our new Secretary of State Anthony Blinken's stepfather, Samuel Pisar, was "longtime lawyer and confidant of...Robert Maxwell," Ghislaine Maxwell's Dad.


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