One of the favourite case studies that come up in my BFBV course at MDI is Relaxo. Every year I ask students to study this case which I had done along with @ravirpurohit in 2013 by assigning these

Then I update them on my thinking about this business, management and valuation. This year, I spoke that (which I won't discuss here) and also about some additional lessons. Listing them here:
The importance of distinguishing between things that are under your control and those that you cannot control.
Things you can control include defining what kinds of business you will invest into and which ones you will ignore, how you will make conservative estimates of probable earning power a few years from now and how you will restrain yourself from projecting very high exit multiples.
The one thing over which you have no control is the changes in multiple because that will be decided by the market, which is like a very moody person.
If your expected return REQUIRES significant multiple rerating BEYOND what's warranted from a pure bond valuation (non-growing perpetuity) multiple, then you are exposing yourself to outcomes dependent on how OTHERS will behave.
On the other hand, if your expected return is coming primarily from dividend and earnings growth component and not a lot from multiple increases, then you are on much safer ground.
Expecting a great business selling at below a bond valuation multiple to sell for at least the bond valuation multiple is reasonable. Don't ask for much more and the chances that you will be disappointed go way down.
When you pay a high entry multiple for an outstanding business, then you have to count on REMAINING lucky - in the sense that you cannot really afford significant multiple declines and yet that is what happens when high PE stocks with embedded high earnings growth expectations.
Many of them end up experiencing a slow down in the growth or even a decline in earnings. If that latter situation transpires, then you will get a double whammy as EPS goes down AND PE multiple also contracts.
In contrast, when you buy a great business (Relaxo was one) at a BELOW bond valuation, then you only have to get lucky ONCE SOMETIME IN THE NEXT 5 YEARS (for the multiple to rise) to earn a good return.
It's far better to position yourself to BENEFIT from good luck than get UNNECESSARY exposure to bad luck that can result in value destruction.
If you use this framework, then you will have lots of errors of OMISSION but far fewer errors of COMMISSION. Errors of commission destroy capital and meaningful destruction can set you back by a decade or totally take you out.
It's ok to make errors of OMISSION and be paranoid about making errors of COMMISSION. And yet, no matter how careful you are, there will be errors of commission.
When they occur you have to act and you have to act fast. You know what's to be done. And then you have to move on. You will quantify the loss, frame it as a tuition fee and move on, and resolve never to make the same type of error again.

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Fake chats claiming to be from the Irish African community are being disseminated by the far right in order to suggest that violence is imminent from #BLM supporters. This is straight out of the QAnon and Proud Boys playbook. Spread the word. Protest safely. #georgenkencho


There is co-ordination across the far right in Ireland now to stir both left and right in the hopes of creating a race war. Think critically! Fascists see the tragic killing of #georgenkencho, the grief of his community and pending investigation as a flashpoint for action.


Across Telegram, Twitter and Facebook disinformation is being peddled on the back of these tragic events. From false photographs to the tactics ofwhite supremacy, the far right is clumsily trying to drive hate against minority groups and figureheads.


Declan Ganley’s Burkean group and the incel wing of National Party (Gearóid Murphy, Mick O’Keeffe & Co.) as well as all the usuals are concerted in their efforts to demonstrate their white supremacist cred. The quiet parts are today being said out loud.


The best thing you can do is challenge disinformation and report posts where engagement isn’t appropriate. Many of these are blatantly racist posts designed to drive recruitment to NP and other Nationalist groups. By all means protest but stay safe.

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I hate when I learn something new (to me) & stunning about the Jeff Epstein network (h/t MoodyKnowsNada.)

Where to begin?

So our new Secretary of State Anthony Blinken's stepfather, Samuel Pisar, was "longtime lawyer and confidant of...Robert Maxwell," Ghislaine Maxwell's Dad.


"Pisar was one of the last people to speak to Maxwell, by phone, probably an hour before the chairman of Mirror Group Newspapers fell off his luxury yacht the Lady Ghislaine on 5 November, 1991."
https://t.co/DAEgchNyTP


OK, so that's just a coincidence. Moving on, Anthony Blinken "attended the prestigious Dalton School in New York City"...wait, what? https://t.co/DnE6AvHmJg

Dalton School...Dalton School...rings a

Oh that's right.

The dad of the U.S. Attorney General under both George W. Bush & Donald Trump, William Barr, was headmaster of the Dalton School.

Donald Barr was also quite a


I'm not going to even mention that Blinken's stepdad Sam Pisar's name was in Epstein's "black book."

Lots of names in that book. I mean, for example, Cuomo, Trump, Clinton, Prince Andrew, Bill Cosby, Woody Allen - all in that book, and their reputations are spotless.