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2021 Predictions‼️

Made by James Howard Kunstler

👇🏻👀

 Kunstler is said to be one of the best thinkers and authors of our modern era. He’s well known as an expert in energy economics, among other topics.

He is NOT a fan of Trump which makes his predictions even more interesting.
1) The election is re-adjudicated, fraud subtracted from the tally, and President Trump is declared the winner.
2) The mail-in vote for the Georgia Senate seat runoff is disqualified as systematic fraud is revealed. Stacy Abrams is indicted for organizing the fraud.
3) A number of political celebrities, DC swamp rats, K-Street hustlers, media figures, and tech company executives are arrested and charged with serious crimes around election fraud.

4) The CIA is purged and reduced to a strictly analytical role for advising the executive.
5) The FBI is likewise purged; Director Wray is charged with obstruction of Justice.

6) Following the reversal of the news media’s election narrative (and the actual election results), BLM and Antifa are unleashed upon a number of cities and wreak considerable destruction..
... but eventually get their asses kicked by federal troops. City mayors who allowed the havoc to proceed are arrested, charged with abetting insurrection, and removed from office pending trial.
7) Nancy Pelosi replaced as Speaker of the House. Mitch McConnell replaced as Majority Leader.
8) US Attorney John Durham brings charges against lawyers involved in the Mueller Investigation, including Andrew Weissmann, Aaron Zebly, Brandon Van Grack and Jeanie Rhee. Mr. Mueller is named as an unindicted co-conspirator due to mental incompetence.
9) A special Prosecutor is named to investigate the Biden family business operations; indictments follow late 2021.
10) Stock market enters long, deep asset value deflation through first and second quarters and bottom-bounces the rest of the year. S & P falls to 550 range; DJI under 10,000; Nasdaq under 3000.

11) The dollar DXY index falls under 80 by 2nd quarter, 60 at year end.
12) US GDP down by 40-percent year end 2021.

13) US oil production (minus natural gas liquids) down by 40-percent, year-end 2021.
14) Banking system thrown into disarray due to non-payment of rents and mortgages. Federal government intervenes with direct renter relief payments. Home owners in default are allowed to remain in their houses on provisional basis (which is never reconciled).
15) Bubonic plague outbreak among homeless of Los Angeles as rats proliferate in their encampments.

16) Pension funds collapse as broken chain of rent-and-mortgage payments destroy Real Estate Investment Trusts.
17) Federal government forced to organize massive food giveaway programs.

18) Millions enrolled in make-work projects a la the New Deal (some of them of value).

19) New York City forced to curtail subway service to bare minimum as money runs out.
20) California Governor Gavin Newsom recalled out of office.

21) George Soros and several directors of Soros-funded NGOs charged with racketeering and election campaign finance crimes.
22) General Motors, Chrysler, and Ford are back seeking bankruptcy protection. This time, their assets are sold and reorganized into smaller companies. No bailouts.
23) Covid virus fades from the scene by 3rd quarter, but economic carnage remains. Huge amount of restaurant equipment sold for dimes on the dollar.

24) Bitcoin “Hodlers” becoming Bitcoin “Sodlers” as cryptos tank.
25) Woke” hysteria evaporates as Americans struggle with desperate reality-based problems of everyday life.
26) Collapse of higher education begins in earnest as college loan racket implodes. Scores of colleges and even some universities shutter; others shrink drastically in desperate effort to carry on.
27) Hollywood celebrities apologize en masse for past “Woke” behavior, beg forgiveness from cancel victims and fans. Nevertheless, collapse of the movie industry continues as, post-Covid, Americans desperately seek the company of other people instead of canned entertainments.
28) Professional sports collapse as business model fails. Impoverished Americans start-up low-cost, local baseball and football leagues.

29) Twitter and Faceback become public utilities.

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Some tips you can consider as a bystander depending on the situation (thread)

Have a code of conduct and circulate it. Make it clear that abusive behaviour will not be accepted. Build in accountability strategies (what happens if someone violates it). Have a moderator/chair to observe the dynamics of your group.

This kind of behaviour is very normalised and insidious, so train yourself to spot it. Is there somebody that usually interrupts? Is there somebody that usually gets interrupted and silenced? Are there signs of aggressive communication?

Not everyone might like that you jump at their defense - your heart might be in the right place but it can come across as patronising. Try to bring up the subject with your colleagues and see what they think. Foster a culture of positive communication.

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Caveat up front: this is not about Slate Star Codex, which I haven't read regularly enough to have an opinion on, or about the recent controversy between SSC & the NYT. I'm more interested in the *idea* of rationalism (vs. the practice).

The core premise of rationalism, as I understand it, is simply that humans' cognitive machinery was not designed by evolution to find truth, but rather to advance the interests & welfare of the collective -- a Venn overlap, but not the same thing. Therefore ...

... reasoning well, both individually & as groups, requires special effort. It requires consciously trying to set aside the parochialism, biases, & other distortions that typically characterize our thinking -- resisting, to some extent, the dynamics of group membership/welfare.

That's all fine. I agree entirely that we should make special effort to reason well & to guard against the typical failures of reasoning to which we humans are prone. I believe it's the best (maybe only) way forward as a species. So far so good.
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