BC TRADERLION
Saved by @SeekerHari

How to time the market (thread)

 There is the old saying that “Time in the market beats timing the market” The chart below from Dr. Wish’s @WishingWealth presentation at the @TraderLion_ conference shows that to be false.

Full presentation: https://t.co/o2f21GBXci
The green line is unattainable realistically, however, missing volatile times during corrections yields better performance than buy and hold and we can aim for the green line.

Investors usually only show the gray and red results.

More info:

https://t.co/Ud0irowGZK
There are many strategies for investing/trading in the stock market operating within different timeframes and with different objectives.

That is of course what creates a market and opportunity. Timing the market may not be what works for you or what fits your goals/lifestyle.
However, everyone involved in the market is here to make money over time and corrections can cause huge drawdowns in the high alpha names negating incredible performance during strong market uptrends.
To avoid the majority of the drawdowns and protect gains from the prior uptrend here are three things to track closely:

✅Your portfolio and recent trade results
✅The price and volume action of the market leaders
✅The market indexes (The Nasdaq, SPX, IWO...)
These factors will provide signs at important inflection points. We just have to interpret them correctly.
Timing the market does not mean calling tops and bottoms, instead it means being as exposed as possible when the markets are trending higher and limiting exposure when the tide turns.
As a trader, the goal is to make progress during uptrends and then scale back to limit drawdowns as much as possible.

Perform, go flat, repeat.
Traders must stay in tune with the market and learn when to press the gas and when to be minimally exposed.

The market cycles between periods of uptrends, consolidation, and downtrends.
We want to increase exposure during the start of uptrends and start to scale back when basing periods emerge with potential negative expectation breakers which could shift the market into a downtrend.
As @markminervini says in his excellent books: you must practice progressive exposure and trade your largest when things are working for you and your smallest when many of your recent trades have hit stops.

Listen to the market for feedback and react.

https://t.co/6SW2XB0DF7
Watching the market leaders is another key to interpreting the current market health.

How to find market leaders and judge stock market conditions ft. @duckman1717

https://t.co/a7X816bJe4
These market Leaders are the stocks under significant accumulation by institutions because they are changing the way we work live and play , are growing their earnings/sales at incredible rates, and are disrupting industries.
They combine the best fundamentals/story with price/volume action.

They as a group act as a barometer for the overall market.

If many potential leaders are moving up the right sides of their bases/breaking out to new highs the market will soon follow the trend.
Likewise when a significant run has already occurred and these leaders start changing character and breaking moving averages as institutions start to take profits, the market could soon follow and enter a correction.
By tracking a list of these leaders and updating it regularly, you can track the institutional appetite at the current time.
Finally, the indexes and their trend provide an overall picture.

Are they trending above or below their 21 ema’s and 50 sma’s.

How do they respond to gap downs?

Are they breaking out of bases into new highs or breaking down through lows?
Take all three market components I mentioned and you will have an excellent understanding of what is working in the market and how exposed you should be based on feedback and current trends.
Again I will repeat, timing the market does not mean calling tops and bottoms. That’s an ego thing.

React to what is actually happening to either protect gains or take a shot at new opportunities emerging.
Now to address a few main criticisms to timing the market.

🟣It’s impossible
🟣Taxes
🟣It's not worth the effort
First, many people say it’s impossible to time the market.

They are correct if they mean calling the top/bottom to a tick. But as I’ve mentioned timing the market is more about being in tune with what is actually going on and riding the trends after they are confirmed.
Traders/investors have been doing this since the very beginning. Read how many great historical traders navigated the markets in John Boik’s Lessons from the Greatest Stock Traders of All Time

https://t.co/dnS40TFlla
Second, Taxes.

Trading requires paying capital gains. However, I would rather protect my profits and sell when a stock breaks key moving averages than sit through a drawdown of unknown depth/time at a loss.

Timeframe and personality matters here for sure as well as cost basis.
Additionally, I highly recommend to anyone especially younger people to use Roth IRAs so you don’t have to worry about this.

https://t.co/0dNTmaR8Oi
Finally, many people say its not worth the effort.

Depending on your goals, timeframe, strategy this could be true. But I know many successful traders who use alerts to stay up to date with price action while they go live their lives.
Most of the work for keeping track of the leaders is done on the weekends (My routine takes about 2.5 hours including making a video)

This weeks:

https://t.co/IGB5qX3xZd
Timing the market is a divisive topic and it may not be for you. But for me it’s worth the higher performance potential which can add up to an incredible amount over time.

What are your thoughts? ⬇️

More from Richard Moglen 📽️🚢

Richard Moglen \U0001f981
Richard Moglen 🦁...
@RichardMoglen
Technical Green Flags

Gap up after Earnings
Relative Strength vs the market
Higher Highs, lows
Retaking MAs
Respect for logical support
Stage 2 Uptrend
Breakouts through resistance on HV
Pocket Pivots
Strong DCRs
Orderly price action
Near or at ATHs
Weekly Vol Spikes

What else?
SCREENERS
Richard Moglen \U0001f4fd\ufe0f\U0001f981\U0001f6a2
Richard Moglen 📽️🦁🚢...
@RichardMoglen
An Introduction to Price and Volume Action (thread)

An understanding of price and volume action is essential for judging supply and demand characteristics. This allows you to determine whether a stock is under accumulation or distribution and find proper buy and sell points

This thread is not about memorizing candlestick patterns, but instead understanding how supply and demand create patterns over and over again. The Stock Market is an auction, and the large buyers and sellers leave clues for us to find within price and volume.

Let’s start with one price bar. I personally use OHLC charts but feel free to use what makes sense to you, they each present the same information. A single bar can represent a minute, 15 minutes, a day, or a year. The higher the timeframe the more meaningful the price move.


I view each bar as a match of tug of war between the buyers and the sellers. Buying pressure tries to pull the stock price up while selling pressure tries to pull it down. The winner is reflected in the closing range.
TRADERLION
Advertisement
Richard Moglen \U0001f4fd\ufe0f\U0001f6a2\U0001f981
Richard Moglen 📽️🚢🦁...
@RichardMoglen
In the fall of 2018, I signed up for a class called "Introduction to the Stock Market and Technical Analysis" taught by Dr. Eric Wish

This class changed my life.

Here are 10 Lessons Dr. Wish taught me from his over 50 Years of Trading.

(Thread)

Before this class I had absolutely no knowledge about investing, trading, or how to read a stock chart

Today, trading & studying the commonalities between the greatest performing stocks is my passion, and what I’ve spent the past 1000+ days focused on

Now onto the first lesson

Financial Literacy

The first lesson Dr. Wish taught me was the importance of overall financial literacy.

Roth IRAs, interest rates, budgeting, building credit the right way.

You need to master money management before thinking moving on to trading/investing.

Overall Strategy

Throughout the class, Dr. Wish repeated his trading mantra.

As you gain trading knowledge and experience, you'll appreciate the simplicity and depth of this one sentence:


Determine the Market Trend

The vast majority of stocks follow the overall trend of the market. This is why the mantra begins with “In a Rising Market”

"At least 50% of the whole game is the general market."

-William O'Neil
TRADERLION , MARKET TREND
Richard Moglen \U0001f4fd\ufe0f\U0001f981\U0001f6a2
Richard Moglen 📽️🦁🚢...
@RichardMoglen
What is an Optimal Buy Point? (thread)

Your results as a trader/investor boil down to three statistics

Average Gain - Average % gain on winning Trades
Average Loss -Average % gain on losing Trades
Batting Average - % of trades that are gains

Like in baseball, you can find incredible success in the stock market winning only a handful of times out of ten. In fact a system that is profitable or break even with only a 30-50% BA is more robust and consistent

To establish such as system you need to manage the risk reward relationship (Average gain/Average Loss) so that you can survive winning only 30% of the time.

(I promise this is getting to optimal buy points shortly)

You should shoot for at least a 2:1 gain/loss ratio. 3:1 is even better.

With a 2:1 ratio you can loss 2/3 of the time and break even. With a 3:1 ratio you can lose 75% of the time
TRADERLION
Richard Moglen \U0001f4fd\ufe0f\U0001f6a2
Richard Moglen 📽️🚢...
@RichardMoglen
As Traders, Technical Analysis allows us to Judge Potential, Identify Accumulation, and Manage Risk.

It allows us to see through the noise and interpret price action.

Here is How To Read a Stock Chart For Beginners (Thread)

Let's start with the basics.

When you first pull up a stock chart you will see Price and Volume plotted versus time.


Each price bar represents one period of whatever timeframe you are on

Some people like candlesticks, I personally think Open/High/Low/Close (OHLC) Bars are more intuitive

For each bar/candle, the four important data points of each period are represented:

High
Low
Open
Close.


For each bar, we want to be able to determine whether buyers or sellers are in control and how much conviction they have.

To do this we use our tools: Price and Volume

Thing about turning a price Bar 90 degrees counter clockwise so the high is now on the left and the low is now on the right.

Then picture a game of tug of war with participants representing buying pressure on the left and selling pressure on the right.
TRADERLION

More from Traderlion

TraderLion \U0001f981
TraderLion 🦁
@TraderLion_
4 Simple Steps to Avoid Downtrends 📉 (a thread)

🧵


1. Know the difference between an uptrend & a downtrend 📈📉

At TraderLion, we identify an uptrend as stocks/markets that trade ABOVE a RISING 21DSMA and 50DSMA.

A downtrend occurs when stocks/markets trade BELOW a downsloping 21DSMA/50DSMA.

Let's look at an example 👇

$QQQ from 2020 shows what an uptrend, downtrend, and even chop period looks like.


2. Know when it is really time to make money on the long side.

Swing Traders: when markets/stocks are above the rising 21D
Position Traders: when market/stocks are above the rising 50D

We can take this one step further by understanding what a Power Trend is 💪

The trend is really your friend when we have a Power Trend in the general indexes. A concept coined by the @IBDinvestors team, we must have the following:

✅ Low > 21ema for past 10 sessions
✅ 21EMA > 50SMA for at least 5 sessions
✅ 50SMA slope is positive
✅ Market closes up
TRADERLION
TraderLion \U0001f981
TraderLion 🦁
@TraderLion_
The best traders in the world have made millions from one setup.

The setup? A breakout from a base.

But what do these bases have in common & what should you be looking for?

Here are the most important characteristics of a proper base, broken down one by one 🧵👇

By the end of this thread, you will:

✅Be able to identify the main characteristics of a proper base
✅Understand subtle clues of accumulation
✅Have access to 20+ real world examples

Let's get started! 👇

Proper bases all have the following characteristics:

▪️ Shallow Base Depths
▪️ Prior Uptrend of at least 20%
▪️ Early Stage Base
▪️ Daily & Weekly Accumulation Signatures
▪️ Relative Strength Periods

Follow along as we break down each aspect in greater detail below 👍

#1: Shallow Base Depths

Base depth is a key component of a proper base.

We measure a base's depth from the absolute peak to the absolute low.

Institutions are the major base builders in the market, & the shallower the base, the stronger the institutional hold in the name.

Here are some good criteria to keep in mind when analyzing bases:

< 20-30% off the highs = best
< 30-40% off the highs = good
< 40-50% off the highs = acceptable under certain circumstances
> 50%+ off the highs = avoid (with exception to some younger IPO names)
TRADERLION , ALL
Advertisement
Nick Schmidt \U0001f981
Nick Schmidt 🦁...
@NickSchmidt_
You can spend years looking for the best trading indicator.

Or you can just read this:

I've spent the last 7 years meeting the best traders in the world... and I realized they ALL use the same indicator.

The absolute best trading indicator in the world is your gut.

Like every indicator—before it can give reliable signals—it needs to be studied.

Your intuition only becomes finely tuned after a lot of trials and errors.

Let me explain...

First, we need to understand what intuition is. (that gut feeling)

As traders, intuition is how we make decisions without conscious thought.

Intuition grows (slowly) every time you see the same pattern unfold.

In other words, the more you trade, the more accurate your intuition gets.

Intuition is no different from muscle memory.
TRADERLION
TraderLion \U0001f981
TraderLion 🦁
@TraderLion_
There is one simple habit that William O’Neil, Nicolas Darvas, and every other Market Wizard share that is the KEY to their success & outperformance.

The habit? Analyzing their trading through post analysis.

Here is our guide to doing post analysis like a Market Wizard.

🧵👇

Post Trade Analysis (PTA) is one of the most important parts of any trading system.

It is the process of analyzing each & every one of your trades, highlighting:

✅ Setup/edge
✅ Market env. at time of trade
✅ What you do well/poorly

& more!

By the end of this thread, here’s what you’ll learn about PTA:

1. Non-negotiable Benefits of PTA
2. The most important metrics to look at
3. Letting results guide your trading
4. PTA Frequency guidelines
5. Top Trader Template
6. Secret Bonus Tip

Let's get right into it.

PTA Tip #1: Non-negotiable Benefits of PTA

By analyzing your trades, you are ensuring that:

· You will know what works best for you
· You will know what is holding your performance back
· You will know how to FIX your trading issues

& there's one more hidden benefit of PTA...

Analyzing who you are as a trader builds a foundation of CONFIDENCE.

If you are struggling with your confidence, there is no better place to start than taking a cold hard look at your results.
TRADERLION
TraderLion
TraderLion
@TraderLion_
10 Trading Tips for any strategy. (Thread)

1. Find a Trading Method That Fits Your Personality

Becoming a great trader is a process of self-discovery. It is very important to understand this from the get-go and start by finding a proven style, or methodology that jives with who you are.

2. Trade With The Trend

Did you know 3 out of every 4 stocks follow the direction of the general market? Anytime you are trading against the trend you are putting the odds heavily against yourself.

3. Stay With Your Trading Strategy After A Few Losing Trades

Next time you take a loss, try not to take it too personally. Sometimes you can do everything perfectly and you are still going to take a loss. That’s part of being a consistently successful trader.

4. Post Analysis Is The Secret To Success

By maintaining a trading journal and doing post-analysis, you can answer extremely important questions like…

What is working? What am I doing right?

What is not working? What am I doing wrong and how can I fix it?
TRADERLION

You May Also Like

Eric
Eric
@ericbahn
1/ Recently, I learned about the concept of ‘struggle porn’. This refers to the fetish of sacrificing nearly everything (health, relationships, time) for your startup. I fear that this label is creating more harm than good.

2/ @nateliason wrote a fabulous article about this topic, which first introduced me to this concept. Everyone should read it:

3/ @alexisohanian also recently spoke about struggle porn, though referring to it as ‘hustle porn.’ (as the co-founder of @hustlefundvc, obviously I take issue with this pejorative definition of ‘hustle’, but that’s another topic)

4/ Struggling in itself isn’t necessarily bad. Let’s be real here--if you’re going to start a startup, you will struggle. Founders should expect to work harder generally than employees. You will be challenged in many ways and also be super rewarded in others. This is normal.

5/ However, if you are over-indexing on hard work without clear purpose and degrading your mental health/relationships in the process--then this is very bad and we obviously should not celebrate this behavior.
STARTUPS
Katie Mack
Katie Mack
@AstroKatie
Light travels at about 1 foot per nanosecond.

Hold your hand up 12 inches from your face: you’re seeing your hand as it was a nanosecond ago. Everything you look at is, to one degree or another, in the past. The farther away in space, the more ancient in time.

You can’t see the Sun as it is now, but you can see it as it was about 8 minutes ago. You can’t see Alpha Centauri now, but you can see it 4.4 years ago. You can see the Andromeda Galaxy as it was 2.5 million years in the past. And so on.

With powerful telescopes, we can see galaxies whose light has been traveling to us for more than 13 billion years. We see them shining in a universe that’s still young, where gravity has just begun to pull matter together into stars and galaxies.

We can see something even more distant, and more ancient, than the first galaxies. If we peer out far enough, in between the galaxies, we can see parts of the Universe that are so far away, it has taken the light from that distance almost the entire age of the cosmos to reach us.
SCIENCE
Advertisement
Billy Bostickson \U0001f3f4\U0001f441&\U0001f441 \U0001f193
Billy Bostickson 🏴👁&👁 ...
@BillyBostickson
Tip from the Monkey
Pangolins, September 2019 and PLA are the key to this mystery
Stay Tuned!


1. Yang


2. A jacobin capuchin dangling a flagellin pangolin on a javelin while playing a mandolin and strangling a mannequin on a paladin's palanquin, said Saladin
More to come tomorrow!


3. Yigang Tong
https://t.co/CYtqYorhzH
Archived: https://t.co/ncz5ruwE2W


4. YT Interview
Some bats & pangolins carry viruses related with SARS-CoV-2, found in SE Asia and in Yunnan, & the pangolins carrying SARS-CoV-2 related viruses were smuggled from SE Asia, so there is a possibility that SARS-CoV-2 were coming from
ALL
Kavita
Kavita
@Kavitastocks
There are many strategies in market 📉and it's possible to get monthly 4% return consistently if you master 💪in one strategy .
One of those strategies which I like is Iron Fly✈️

Few important points on Iron fly stategy

This is fixed loss🔴 defined stategy ,so you are aware of your losses . You know your risk ⚠️and breakeven points to exit the positions.
Risk is defined , so at psychological🧠 level you are at peace🙋‍♀️

How to implement
1. Should be done on Tuesday or Wednesday for next week expiry after 1-2 pm
2. Take view of the market ,looking at daily chart
3. Then do weekly iron fly.
4. No need to hold this till expiry day .

5.Exit it one day before expiry or when you see more than 2% within the week.
5. High vix is preferred for iron fly
6. Can be executed with less capital of 3-5 lakhs .
https://t.co/MYDgWkjYo8 have R:2R so over all it should be good.

8. If you are able to get 6% return monthly ,it means close to 100% return on your capital per annum.
ALL , OPTIONSLEARNINGS
Vibhu Vashisth
Vibhu Vashisth
@VIBHU_Tweet
Do you know?

The Golden Shine on the artificial jewellery of modern times is a gift by Nagarjuna.

Now,u might be wondering,who is Nagarjuna?

Nagarjuna was the name of an ancient Indian scholar&scientist whose name is associated with the fields of Alchemy,Chemistry& Metallurgy.


He conducted a number of alchemic and Metallurgical experiments directed towards transforming base elements into Gold.
According to Eduard Sachau's Alberuni's India, Nagarjuna was termed as a Metallurgist who was born 100 yrs before Alberuni's time, who was born in 973 CE.


According to some records Nagarjuna was born in 9th century CE near Somnath,Gujarat and according to some Tibetan & Chinese sources he was born in Vidarbha,Maharashtra from where he later migrated to Deccan region.


Edward Schau quotes in his book,'They have a science similar to Alchemy and Nagarjuna is famous for this science which they call as 'Rasayana'.

Nagarjuna's book 'Rasaratnakara' is one of the earliest documented texts on Alchemy,Chemistry & Metallurgy in Sanskrit.Nagarjuna successfully discovered through his experiments the alchemy of transmutation of base metals into Gold.This was not real gold but a gold like substance.
ALL