BC MARKET CYCLE

Jiten Parmar
@jitenkparmar 5 years ago 634 views

@katalystwealth Yes Sir. Extremely difficult to predict the top. Often top comes much before the best results. One needs to have some kind of strategy to exit. Maybe something like a multiple of replacement cost, P/B, historical upcycle margins, etc. But there is no exact science to predict top.

More from Jiten Parmar

A thread I had done in sugar industry last year. A few things could have changed. But, I think there are huge challenges to the E20 story. Do we have underlying dynamics in place. Do read how much time it took for Brazil.

Disc: Invested in sugar only as tactical play.

Sugar Industry Insights (Feb 25, 2020)
Last few years sugar industry has been a beneficiary of government largesse. Sugar cycle turned in 2015. Post that there has been surplus production.
— Jiten Parmar (@jitenkparmar) February 25, 2020

Jiten Parmar
@jitenkparmar

A recently listed IPO (Sep 21). Promoter did OFS at X alongwith fresh issue. Made record for highest subscription ever. Company currently at more than 5X of OFS price.

Let's glance a bit on Financials.
1/2

Mcap - 3500 cr
Company does about 150 cr revenue. And about 15-20 cr in profits.

I am at a loss of words on valuations.

Maybe market is smart, promoters dumb and value investors like me dumber 🙂

My exp of almost 3 decades in the market tells me, this will end badly.
2/2

Jiten Parmar
@jitenkparmar

Accidents happens when one doesn't look at valuations.

A supposedly platform stock listed in 2019. OFS price was 320 Rs. High of 6396 made yesterday.

Mcap crossed 1 lac crore.

Company was affected by CoVid so will talk a bit on pre-CoVid nos.

1/3

Sales of 2300 cr in FY20. NP 730 cr. Company has a monopoly given by the govt. Business is good and many extensions taking place, which will take time to bear fruit, if at all. But valuation-wise it had gone bonkers.

2/3

Stock corrected 40%+ in 2 days. This is what can happen when one doesn't heed valuations. And ignores the risks to the business. And only looks at blue sky scenario.

A good company may not be a good investment, at any price.

3/3

Jiten Parmar
@jitenkparmar

A thread on my experience and observations of the grocery delivery apps in India.

@Grofers @bigbasket_com @JioMart @flipkart supermart, @amazonIN and DMart Ready.

Live in Pune. So my experience is of this city. User experience may vary according to location.

1/11

1)@Grofers - good app, good delivery timelines, decent prices, limited selection, delivery free above a certain threshold is a negative, point and Grofer cash not very good. Offers on checkout not proper and visible . Limited vegetables.
2/11

Private label selection, prices decent. Overall decent experience.

With advent of others may face stiff competition. Maybe acquired or merged with someone.

3/11

2) @bigbasket_com - good app, good delivery, timelines, decent prices, decent selection, delivery free over a threshold is a negative. Overall decent. Will face stiff competition. Will be acquired by someone.
4/11

3) @JioMart - started poorly. But improving by the day. Each experience better than prev one. First delivery was 4 days, then 2 days, then 1 day. Last delivery on same day. Not intimating delivery schedule is an irritant and needs improvement.
5/11

Jiten Parmar
@jitenkparmar

Sugar Industry Insights (Feb 25, 2020)
Last few years sugar industry has been a beneficiary of government largesse. Sugar cycle turned in 2015. Post that there has been surplus production.

Government has helped the industry by various incentives like export subsidy, ethanol blending, allowing cane juice to ethanol conversion, msp, etc. UP and Maharashtra are the 2 major states in sugarcane plantations.

The 2 largest players in the world are Brazil and India. In Brazil sugarcane is used for ethanol a lot lot more than in India. Brazil is way ahead of any country in ethanol from cane.

US is the largest producer of ethanol in the world followed by Brazil. US uses mainly corn for making ethanol.

Indian sugar scenario: Sugar still constitutes 85% of revenue in sugar companies. So, essentially it has to do well for sugar companies to be profitable. We have had record production in last couple of years. Sugar opening stock at end of last sugar year was 14.5 mt.

More from Market cycle

Shankar Sharma
@1shankarsharma

One oft- used , but rather silly, quote used by many is "Time in Mkt is more important than Timing the Mkt".
In reality, Time in the Market is profitable ONLY when your ( broad sector & theme) Timing of the Market right.

You need both. Period.

ishmohit
@ishmohit1

The divergence that happened between 2017-2019 might be a thing of the past if the broader markets/sectors start doing well. Plenty of signs

I track cos bottoms up, seeing signs of massive capex announcements and growth expectations in Numerous cos. Whether it is spechem or cement cos like Dalmia. It's visible

Andrew Kuhn
@FocusedCompound

Always read the oldest 10-K you can find on a company

Reading the oldest 10-K will give you added perspective on the business and it'll get you thinking about how the business has changed over time/how it will change in the future

Maitrey Patel
@MaitreyPatel11

@contrarianEPS Today Wonderla ran like anything due to opening of its parks. Wonderla has one of the strongest balance sheet in tourism, travel, entertainment and hotel related space. Some unlock investment(not trade) do work if selected properly.

Amit Mantri
@amitmantri

Bull markets are a great time for fraudster promoters to make money. If you are a fraudster and also want to benefit from this bull market, here's a thread that explains how you can defraud shareholders and get rich.

1. Have a good story to catch investor's attention. Something like "only listed XYZ company" will help. Has zero value in terms of improving long-term cash flows of the business but is excellent branding for a stock. Change the name of the company to what's booming in the market

2. Draw analogies to D-Mart or other businesses that investors love (next Page Industries maybe?). Doesn't matter if your business is nothing like the ones you are comparing it with.

3. Give aggressive guidance. 15% growth is pedestrian. Talk stuff like 1 lakh cr sales/loan book or 50% growth for next 10 years. Your stock should be a potential multi-multi-bagger. Claim that there is no limit to how large you can be.

4. Start making up the numbers. Only Revenue and PAT matters. So don't worry if the Balance Sheet has all sorts of large unexplained scary stuff. No one looks at the BS in a bull market.

A relationship begins to get stiff when excessive patterns begin to form.

Too many patterns leads to a boring, predictable, logical lifestyle.

Get the emotions involved.

Do something spontaneous out of the blue moon & flip the script.

'What's wrong with the patterns?'

Nothing is wrong with patterns.

However, there is a problem when all you have are patterns.

It's boring.

'Can you explain why?'

Sure 👇

The thing with relationships is that it's meant to be an emotional experience.

It's very difficult to logically explain love, right?

'Right.'

Well this is where you want to steer the ship the right way.

1. Too emotional is bad.

2. Too logical is bad.

Let me break it down.

1. Too emotional

If a relationship is completely ruled by emotions, then it's too volatile.

You will never reach productivity if you are aimlessly only following each others emotions.

This lifestyle tarnishes any structure for the couple.

'So why do people do it?'

Because it's fun.

You may ruled by this stage in the honeymoon phase.

Normal.

You'll be so spontaneous that it almost becomes a lifestyle.

But it's hard to level up your life when you're too spontaneous.

Avoid.

Sahil
@sahilypatel

Want to do an MBA for free ?

A thread 👇

1) Leadership: Foundations of Teamwork and Leadership

School: wharton

2) Marketing: Marketing Management

School: wharton

3) Microeconomics: Microeconomics for Managers

School:

4) Financial Theory

School:

$Ethan \U0001f468\u200d\U0001f3a4$

Ethan 👨‍🎤...
@Booligoosh

First update to https://t.co/lDdqjtKTZL since the challenge ended – Medium links!! Go add your Medium profile now 👀📝 (thanks @diannamallen for the suggestion 😁)

Just added Telegram links to https://t.co/lDdqjtKTZL too! Now you can provide a nice easy way for people to message you :)

Less than 1 hour since I started adding stuff to https://t.co/lDdqjtKTZL again, and profile pages are now responsive!!! 🥳 Check it out -> https://t.co/fVkEL4fu0L

Accounts page is now also responsive!! 📱✨

💪 I managed to make the whole site responsive in about an hour. On my roadmap I had it down as 4-5 hours!!! 🤘🤠🤘

Damodar Hegde
@DamodarHegde4

MUST READ TILL END:
FB POST BY MR PRABEER BASU,
IAS-1976(BIHAR)
" Received a hurtful post from an old friend and colleague. He was on my daily Broadcast list of WhatsApp. He requested that I do not send him any of my posts on 'political' issues. I gave him a long explaination
>2

2/29
on why I write and what I write. But he was not convinced.

Being alerted by him thus, I felt I should clarify to all who read my posts on what exactly I think and do.

The charge against me is that I wrongly support our current Prime Minister, Shri Narendra Modi..
>3

3/29
and that it establishes I am not rational and impartial anymore.
Let me try and explain.First and foremost,I do not write on 'political' issues. I write on 'national' issues. For example, I have no opinion on whether Rahul Gandhi should be President of his party or not.
>4

4/29

Similarly, I have no views whether BJP is a better party than Congress or vice versa.
Even after 36 years in the IAS I have no MLA, MP or anyone involved in politics whom I can classify as my friend or even acquaintance.
>5

5/29
So, naturally I don't care which party wins or loses as long as the winning party runs an honest government doing good to my nation.
Now, why I speak in favour of Shri Modi:

1. Ever since the beginning of my service I realised that Planning Commission was not serving..

>6

@katalystwealth Yes Sir. Extremely difficult to predict the top. Often top comes much before the best results. One needs to have some kind of strategy to exit. Maybe something like a multiple of replacement cost, P/B, historical upcycle margins, etc. But there is no exact science to predict top.

More from Jiten Parmar

More from Market cycle

You May Also Like