@katalystwealth Yes Sir. Extremely difficult to predict the top. Often top comes much before the best results. One needs to have some kind of strategy to exit. Maybe something like a multiple of replacement cost, P/B, historical upcycle margins, etc. But there is no exact science to predict top.
More from Jiten Parmar
EV/tonne of the mentioned companies currently
Anjani - 100
Deccan Cem - 40
KCP - 44 (will be lower if value to other biz given)
NCL - 61 (has boards biz too)
Sagar - 59
Anjani - 100
Deccan Cem - 40
KCP - 44 (will be lower if value to other biz given)
NCL - 61 (has boards biz too)
Sagar - 59
EV/tonne of the companies in that region.
— Jiten Parmar (@jitenkparmar) July 8, 2020
Anjani Portland - 42
Deccan Cem - 20
KCP - conglomerate (has Vietnam sugar, hotel, engg too) - 43 (on mcap)
NCL - 31 (has boards biz too)
Sagar - 47
No recommendations. Just data.
A thread I had done in sugar industry last year. A few things could have changed. But, I think there are huge challenges to the E20 story. Do we have underlying dynamics in place. Do read how much time it took for Brazil.
Disc: Invested in sugar only as tactical play.
Disc: Invested in sugar only as tactical play.
Sugar Industry Insights (Feb 25, 2020)
— Jiten Parmar (@jitenkparmar) February 25, 2020
Last few years sugar industry has been a beneficiary of government largesse. Sugar cycle turned in 2015. Post that there has been surplus production.
More from Market cycle
You May Also Like
THREAD: 12 Things Everyone Should Know About IQ
1. IQ is one of the most heritable psychological traits – that is, individual differences in IQ are strongly associated with individual differences in genes (at least in fairly typical modern environments). https://t.co/3XxzW9bxLE
2. The heritability of IQ *increases* from childhood to adulthood. Meanwhile, the effect of the shared environment largely fades away. In other words, when it comes to IQ, nature becomes more important as we get older, nurture less. https://t.co/UqtS1lpw3n
3. IQ scores have been increasing for the last century or so, a phenomenon known as the Flynn effect. https://t.co/sCZvCst3hw (N ≈ 4 million)
(Note that the Flynn effect shows that IQ isn't 100% genetic; it doesn't show that it's 100% environmental.)
4. IQ predicts many important real world outcomes.
For example, though far from perfect, IQ is the single-best predictor of job performance we have – much better than Emotional Intelligence, the Big Five, Grit, etc. https://t.co/rKUgKDAAVx https://t.co/DWbVI8QSU3
5. Higher IQ is associated with a lower risk of death from most causes, including cardiovascular disease, respiratory disease, most forms of cancer, homicide, suicide, and accident. https://t.co/PJjGNyeQRA (N = 728,160)
1. IQ is one of the most heritable psychological traits – that is, individual differences in IQ are strongly associated with individual differences in genes (at least in fairly typical modern environments). https://t.co/3XxzW9bxLE
2. The heritability of IQ *increases* from childhood to adulthood. Meanwhile, the effect of the shared environment largely fades away. In other words, when it comes to IQ, nature becomes more important as we get older, nurture less. https://t.co/UqtS1lpw3n
3. IQ scores have been increasing for the last century or so, a phenomenon known as the Flynn effect. https://t.co/sCZvCst3hw (N ≈ 4 million)
(Note that the Flynn effect shows that IQ isn't 100% genetic; it doesn't show that it's 100% environmental.)
4. IQ predicts many important real world outcomes.
For example, though far from perfect, IQ is the single-best predictor of job performance we have – much better than Emotional Intelligence, the Big Five, Grit, etc. https://t.co/rKUgKDAAVx https://t.co/DWbVI8QSU3
5. Higher IQ is associated with a lower risk of death from most causes, including cardiovascular disease, respiratory disease, most forms of cancer, homicide, suicide, and accident. https://t.co/PJjGNyeQRA (N = 728,160)