see stocks where open = high/low .. and see how the candle is progressing.. if going strong then the trend can continue for the day :)
also keep lookout for the OI or volume change from yesterday if big enough, then major action is on the cards

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Repeat msg ::
Keep booking profit and deleveraging as mkt moves in your direction, few examples of money/position management
1) Book future and add In the money option
2) Book In the money option & buy Out of money
that way u can ride it while wont mind if sudden reversal comes

Bull Market Rotation: We all have heard about bull market rotation over last few months. 

Let's see how it looks. Below is the comparative chart of IT (candlestick chart) vs Metals (blue line chart). Let's see how it has moved from March'20 bottom till now. 

(1/4)

1) March'20 to July'20: Both going up but IT clearly outperforming metals during the period.

2) July to Aug: IT consolidating, metals outperforming.

3) Aug to Oct: IT moving up, metals under retracement.

(2/4)

4) Oct to Nov: Tables turning again in favour of metals.

5) Nov to Jan: Both moving up, but IT outperforming.

6) Jan to May: Metals outperforming IT after some initial retracement in first few weeks of Jan. Since last week of Jan to May, it's been all metals.

(3/4)

7) May to July: IT again leading, with metals consolidating.

Let's see how it turns from here.

(4/4)

Understanding HIGH & LOW VIX

VIX at 16: If you check today's IV behaviour, they were not spiking much even with decent delta move in BNF. The movement was subtle, giving some time to adjust. So someone having good adjustment mechanism can stay in the game longer.

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VIX at 20: The same delta move will be more fierce, coupled with rise in premiums. When premiums rise with movement, then the adjustment cost increases exponentially. The premiums can fall back at EOD, but the damage is done if caught in the spike.

2/

After talking to few traders, their backtest result was in favor of high VIX of 2020, rather than 2017-19. The key flaw in the backtest were the adjustments which are not easy to calculate. Combination of high theta & fixed SL during high VIX, the IV crush is cashed at EOD.

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Neutral option sellers who don't adjust & have fixed SL on a static straddle will not be able to benefit highly in low VIX. The straddle which moves away from ATM will increase no matter what. But if we keep on rolling our strikes, then we get good realisation of theta.

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I have made majority of my profits in option selling when VIX was at 13-15, mostly just relying on my adjustments. Since 2020 with high VIX, adjustments stopped working because of increase in the frequency of delta + IV spike combos & so had to shift to directional trading.

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