Gaps and Probabilities.
A 2019 Tweet.
#GapTheory - Do the Gaps get filled?
— Piyush Chaudhry (@piyushchaudhry) March 12, 2019
As per Thomas Bulkowski's 2005 study Odds for filling of the following Gaps -
Common Gaps: >70%
However,
Breakaway Gaps: <5%
Runaway Gaps: <20%
Exhaustion Gaps: >70%
Categorize the Gaps correctly and Look for Counter Signals.
More from Piyush Chaudhry
New All Time High.
#HINDUNILVR
EW
Long Term Chart of the Month. #HINDUNILVR
— Piyush Chaudhry (@piyushchaudhry) December 9, 2020
Sometime in the next decade I see a fair possibility of stock reaching 7000 odd.
Invalidation below Blue Trendline. #ElliottWave pic.twitter.com/uxQrzt1mbj
as per relative strength
One question that I often get is which of the two: #HINDUNILVR or #ITC would be a better Investment bet. While their individual charts are clear themselves, another approach is ratio chart. IMHO Lever should outperform ITC for several years going forward.https://t.co/3AFqm6FJ1Q pic.twitter.com/rLuIm8xyVw
— Piyush Chaudhry (@piyushchaudhry) December 30, 2020
#APOLLOHOSP @ 2110 - Long Term Chart.
— Piyush Chaudhry (@piyushchaudhry) November 12, 2020
I see a fair possibility of the stock rising to 3500-5000 zone over next few years and an open possibility of the next zone of 5000-7500 as well.
Invalidation on break below Blue TL. pic.twitter.com/QJ5aY4eTT8
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Not letting your capital rot is a gainful activity. https://t.co/iYo2SIEPVX
whats cooking in HGS ??
— Alok Jain \u26a1 (@WeekendInvestng) April 1, 2021
Are Hindujas offloading to put more into Indus ?? What's the buzz... the move seems as a precursor to a big news
just a guess..not a reco
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Decoded his way of analysis/logics for everyone to easily understand.
Have covered:
1. Analysis of volatility, how to foresee/signs.
2. Workbook
3. When to sell options
4. Diff category of days
5. How movement of option prices tell us what will happen
1. Keeps following volatility super closely.
Makes 7-8 different strategies to give him a sense of what's going on.
Whichever gives highest profit he trades in.
I am quite different from your style. I follow the market's volatility very closely. I have mock positions in 7-8 different strategies which allows me to stay connected. Whichever gives best profit is usually the one i trade in.
— Sarang Sood (@SarangSood) August 13, 2019
2. Theta falls when market moves.
Falls where market is headed towards not on our original position.
Anilji most of the time these days Theta only falls when market moves. So the Theta actually falls where market has moved to, not where our position was in the first place. By shifting we can come close to capturing the Theta fall but not always.
— Sarang Sood (@SarangSood) June 24, 2019
3. If you're an options seller then sell only when volatility is dropping, there is a high probability of you making the right trade and getting profit as a result
He believes in a market operator, if market mover sells volatility Sarang Sir joins him.
This week has been great so far. The main aim is to be in the right side of the volatility, rest the market will reward.
— Sarang Sood (@SarangSood) July 3, 2019
4. Theta decay vs Fall in vega
Sell when Vega is falling rather than for theta decay. You won't be trapped and higher probability of making profit.
There is a difference between theta decay & fall in vega. Decay is certain but there is no guaranteed profit as delta moves can increase cost. Fall in vega on the other hand is backed by a powerful force that sells options and gives handsome returns. Our job is to identify them.
— Sarang Sood (@SarangSood) February 12, 2020