How to identify momentum stocks for intraday trading

Explained in detail with examples with a scanner to scan stocks(link in youtube description)

https://t.co/wf4EOV9Ktt

#trading #youtube #markets

Trading Mistakes & Lessons Learnt 🧵

1) I always keep my mistakes & lessons learnt in front of my screen while trading.
Bcz we as traders tend to commit the same mistakes everytime.

So seeing your learnt lessons everyday ensures that you avoid them.

#trading #mistakes

2) In 2017, I analysed all my trades and saw that I have majorly lost in stock futures and profits came only via index trading.

I accepted that I am not great at stock trading & been trading index only majorly since then & have never missed a day trading BankNifty

3) I decided to adjust all of my past losses to 1 % of capital to see the effect of capping the downside.

I would have had a gain of more than 230 % if I had capped losses at 1% of cap.

Lesson: Keep losses per trade less than 1% of capital no matter what !

4) While trading index options, I lost sometimes due to IV rise,flash crash, and option freezes.

Lesson: Never take markets lightly & Always keep protective stops in the system (and not in your mind) to keep loss in control in case of blackswan.

5) Being an option seller, I have a tendency to manage my position by rolling up/converting to calendar etc.

So many times I have wasted 1 or 2 weeks just to close a loss making trade at cost😢

Lesson: I do manage now but exit as soon sold options become ITM or 2 x in value.

Options Thread

How options allows to change and adjust view dynamically.
Let’s understand with a live example.

Example : Nifty is at 11921 and you are bullish on Nifty.

1) Buy Naked 11900 CE(call) at 167

Breakeven : 12068
Max Loss : Rs 12555
Max Profit : Unlimited

2) Now your view changes from bullish to slightly bullish so you can convert naked call into a bull call spread by selling 12100 CE at 72

Breakeven : 11996
Max Loss : Rs 7100
Max Profit : Rs 7800

#OptionsTrading #trading

3) Now your changes from slightly bullish to slightly bearish. You can convert the bull call spread into a ratio spread by selling more 2 calls of 12100 CE

Breakeven : 12224
Max Loss : Unlimited above 12224
Max Profit : Rs 18550

#OptionsTrading

4) Now if your view changes to sideways then you can buy 2 lots of 12200 CE to convert the ratio spread in a butterfly spread.

Breakeven : 11936 to 12182
Max Loss : Rs 2600
Max Profit : Rs 12300

#OptionsTrading

Thread: Risk hai toh ishq hai ?

1) A lot of people talking about today’s freak trade in 37100 PE in BNF

We as traders are always exposed to various types of risk and it’s a part of our business.

Let me highlight certain risk faced in past years & also ways to manage it

2) Gap Risk

18th may 2009

Markets opened at 9:55 AM as this was the market opening time at that time
Nifty immediately hit an 20 % upper circuit at 10.01 am and the markets froze.
So markets were open only for 6 minutes.

There are many such instances of overnight gaps

3) Vega Risk

On 24th August 2015, the Indian markets declined close to 5.92%.

Nifty around 490 points but something unusual happened on that day.

Far otm Call options shot up inspite of such a huge fall😲

Vix shot up 64%

4)Gamma Risk

26th sept 2019

It was an expiry day and 30000 CE went from 50 to 1000+ in minutes and eventually closed at 0

This move caused lot of leveraged traders to lose a significant amount of their capital
Many such instances of gamma risk on expiry day

5) Flash Crash

31st may 2019

Flash crash in Banknifty of 1000+ points.

Friday’s high of the Bank Nifty was 31,783 and the low point of the index was 30,623

Such flash crash has been seen in many stocks as well on other instances

Thread
How to manage strangles dynamically incase of a violent move or IV spike ?

1) Yesterday and infact entire last week if you had created strangles you would have experienced that during upmove only call side were increasing but puts weren’t decaying.

#trading #Options

2)In morning I had created a short strangle
200 lots 25000 PE sell at 102
200 lots 27000 CE sell at 161

You can sell from below image that if I had waited in this strangle till day end I would have lost around -4.5 L

So lets see what all adjustments did I do logically.

3)After creating strangles the premiums strarted increasing as puts were not decaying and calls were increasing.
So I had kept 100 lots buy on 26500 CE at 400(day high)
My buy got executed at 400 around 12:15 pm & I exited 25000 PE at 75

4) I had kept more 100 lots buy at 435 (recent high made during upmove till now)

The buy got executed at 12:15 pm
So my current open postions now were

200 lots 26500 buy at average 420
200 lots 27000 CE sell at 161

5) Logic:
As short strangles are basically short vol so if there is a movement on one side with no decay then one can start buying atm calls.
What this does is it converts your strangles into ratio spread and if move continues eventually into a debit spread

Thank you @mystockedge @vivbajaj for creating these Scans.
This is the Next level and adding much needed value to my stock analysis.

#ADANIENT kaha jaake rukega?

- Next up Channel Top if crosses today's high so that comes to around 1250 - 1300 zone

#Commodities #Metal

Listing out the shares in metal pack where we can ride the commodity cycle even from the CMP

Will be posting long term charts here

Share and like for max reach 😊🖖

#TATASTEEL

🔩Stock is in a sideways channel since past 15y

🔩Breakout above 750

🔩 A monly close above 750 will push the stock towards 950/1050 levels

🔩 Above that it would be a decade long multi-year breakout

🔩Its going for 200/300%+ gains

🔩 On yearly charts a triangle pattern breakout can be seen

🔩Rising iron ore prices are supporting the field

🔩 All over the world major economies are giving out big infra push to get the economy going

🔩This rally is shaping well with the fundamentals and economic recovery

A simple thread to understand relationship between US Dollar and Emerging Markets.

The relationship between the performance of Emerging Market stocks and the US Dollar is one of the tightest macro relationships that exists in investing.

1/15

The weekly return correlation between US Dollar and MSCI Emerging Market Index is -0.70 over last 10 years. Which means when US Dollar weakens, Emerging Market stocks rally and vice versa.

2/15

As seen in this chart, the MSCI EM Index and the MSCI World Index ratio and the US Dollar Index are negatively-correlated.

When US Dollar weakens, EM index outperform World Index and when US Dollar strengthens EM index underperform World index.

3/15

From 1995 to 2000, the USD appreciated over 30%, while the MSCI EM Index underperformed the MSCI World Index by over 15% annualised.

Then from 2001 to 2010, the U.S. dollar depreciated over 18% while the MSCI EM Index outperformed the MSCI World Index by 14% annualised.

4/15

Then from 2011 to 2020, the U.S. dollar appreciated over 30%, while the MSCI EM Index underperformed the MSCI World Index by 7% annualized.

Overall, from 1995 to 2020, this relationship has a correlation of -0.35.

5/15