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🎉Happy New Year!🎉

To kick off 2021, here's an update on:
- S:N501 variants (501Y.V1/V2) with data from 31 Dec 2020
- 69/70del variants
- 20A.EU1 variant (most prevalent variant in Europe)

(Here are some fireworks that look a bit like phylogenies! 🎆)

1/23


The latest sequences from 31 Dec show new sequences in the S:N501Y.V1 variant (originating from SE England) from Netherlands, Denmark, Australia, Italy, Canada, the USA, Germany, Switzerland, & India.

2/23

S:N501 link
https://t.co/TfHfPgBEBS

Image link
https://t.co/3aCKv1pAcI


Canada, Germany, & Switzerland all have sequences that fall in 501Y.V1 for the first time, scattered across the tree.

3/23


The USA also has its first 2 sequences that fall in 501Y.V1, from Colorado & California. India also had its first 3 sequences, also from different regions.

In both cases, the sequences are not connected, indicating separate introductions.

4/23


In countries with previous sequences:

6 new sequences from Netherlands, in orange/yellow (green are older).
1 is clearly separate - zooming in (& in divergence view, coloured by country) it is harder to determine the relationship between the others.

5/23
1. This thread has been given a new lease of life today. People keep saying, "We can't do #ZeroCovid, it doesn't fit with our way of life."

Look around.

What way of life?

The one we used to have?

The UK has been under varying degrees of restriction since March 23rd 2020.


2. Nearly a year of having our social and economic freedoms curtailed in one way or another. Nearly a year of muted economic activity. Nearly a year of mass death and disease.

#ZeroCovid doesn't fit with a way of life that doesn't exist anymore.

3. The question isn't whether it fits with our old freewheeling ways, but whether it would lead to better outcomes than the UK's current (poorly defined) strategy? Experiences in New Zealand, Australia, Vietnam, China, Taiwan and elsewhere very much suggest it would.

4. #ZeroCovid isn't about what's possible. It's about what's necessary. Decide what's necessary and figure out a way to make it possible. We can't force travellers to quarantine in hotels for two weeks? Why not? Taiwan does. And if that's what's necessary, why aren't we doing it?

5. I've heard some odd things said about #ZeroCovid

Simple-minded clod Matt Hancock said Zero Covid is impossible because no country has had zero cases.

Zero Covid sets out an ambition. It signals a country treats any infections as serious
"Communist Blogger" is my favorite Neutral Milk Hotel song


Anyway, here are some of the "communist" blog posts about the Qongresswoman from Georgia (thread)

In 2018, she agreed with someone who said that 9/11 was an inside job and argued that the school shooting in Parkland, FL was a false flag.

And then there's another time she said that the Parkland shooting was fake

She claimed that there was "never any evidence" that a plane was flown into the Pentagon on 9/11
[From a chat. Someone asked what the origin for most infection comes from close contact]

From the epi reports where you ask the person what they did for a week, etc, and then find that they were close to a positive at some point, so the conclusion is "aha, close contact"

You're never going to know if its because of the 2m with that person, or being in some small room with someone else, because nobody is looking for air spread. Conclusion is that it's the close contact.

Why? because EPI STUDIES ARE ALWAYS LOOKING FOR DROPLET

Every question, etc, asked, is from the point of view that nothing except certain specific viruses (measles, etc.) are airborne.

Because remember, to them, if air, R0 would = a billion.

https://t.co/cjJvGVY4Vr


That's why if you read the CDC reports, it's rare for them to analyse beyond 2m. Usually its asian studies that do. And even then barely (the South Korean one, even still, used droplet language).

SK