Hello everyone arguing about the #minimumwage! Someday I'll post a thread about the evidence our @UW team compiled in Seattle.

Today let's talk about hours.

Raise the wage on most low-paying jobs & workers still don't have enough to live on. Because they can't get enough hours.

The graph above is based on data from WA: one of only 4 states that collects systematic data on hours worked. It shows information for anyone earning under $11/hr in 2014-15, when the minimum wage was no more than $9.47.

The data have some important limitations:
-No information on gig/contractor employment
-No "informal" employment
-No jobs outside WA

However if a worker is holding 2+ job we can "see" all of them and include them all in calculating how many hours they work.

The median low wage worker works ~800 hours per year.
With a $15 minimum wage, working 800 hours/year, your annual income works out to $12,000.

That's below the poverty line for a single person, and less than half the poverty line for a family of 4.

Whereas if you could get full time hours (2,000/year) your income would be $30k.
The problem with low wage work (aside from low wages): these jobs tend to be unstable, seasonal, or offered by employers that need a large workforce for a limited number of hours per week.

Since the minimum wage is specified in dollars/hour, it can't guarantee a living income.
The @CityofSeattle, and a few other places, have tried to address the hours problem. They've enacted regulations to make hours more stable and predictable, which is a worthy goal. But a job offering a stable, predictable 10 hours a week isn't going to earn you a living.
A century ago, the first minimum wage policies adopted in states like Oregon and Massachusetts set a *weekly* minimum, not hourly. What would a policy like that look like today?

Imagine this: every job must offer either
a) $15/hour
b) $400/week for up to 40 hrs ($15/hr overtime)
Option b) allows businesses to pay as little as $10/hour, if they consistently offer full-time hours.

In exchange for a lower hourly rate, businesses would have to accept risk that, under current policy, they shift to workers.

Consider the case of a beer garden in Seattle.
If the weather's rainy, there won't be many customers and thus little revenue. When workers are paid by the hour, the beer garden passes a portion of this revenue hit to workers by telling them to stay home if it rains.

(at least in the days before Seattle regulated this!)
The hybrid weekly/hourly wage policy would give businesses a choice: they can pay less per hour if they're willing to bear risk themselves. Or they can pay a higher rate that compensates workers for bearing the risk instead.
The hybrid minimum, unlike a straight hourly minimum, would offer at least some workers a guaranteed income above the poverty line (for certain household sizes, anyway).

The main argument against? Same as for the traditional minimum wage: it might reduce employment.
Would it really reduce employment? If so, by how much? That's a thread for another day...

/fin

More from Society

We finally have the U.S. Citizenship Act Bill Text! I'm going to go through some portions of the bill right now and highlight some of the major changes and improvements that it would make to our immigration system.

Thread:


First the Bill makes a series of promises changes to the way we talk about immigrants and immigration law.

Gone would be the term "alien" and in its place is "noncitizen."

Also gone would be the term "alienage," replaced with "noncitizenship."


Now we get to the "earned path to citizenship" for all undocumented immigrants present in the United States on January 1, 2021.

Under this bill, anyone who satisfies the eligibility criteria for a new "lawful prospective immigrant status" can come out of the shadows.


So, what are the eligibility criteria for becoming a "lawful prospective immigrant status"? Those are in a new INA 245G and include:

- Payment of the appropriate fees
- Continuous presence after January 1, 2021
- Not having certain criminal record (but there's a waiver)


After a person has been in "lawful prospective immigrant status" for at least 5 years, they can apply for a green card, so long as they still pass background checks and have paid back any taxes they are required to do so by law.

However! Some groups don't have to wait 5 years.

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