Lots of tweets about this today!
Let's see what we can see in the focal S:E484 build!

Phylogenetics (what I do - making 'family trees' from virus genetics) can be very informative to see how different variants are spreading, and how cases

There are two variants circulating predominantly in Brazil:
- 20B/S.484K seems to be older & more widespread. It has (among others) a mutation at position 484
- 20J/501Y.V3 is smaller & detected recently. It has mutations at 501 *and* 484.

2/10

https://t.co/Cw5u2kuATa
The variant predominantly in the UK (501Y.V1 / B.1.1.7) and the variant predominantly in South Africa (501Y.V2) also both have 501. 501Y.V2 *also* has the 484K mutation.

Why are there concerns about these mutations? You can read more at https://t.co/wVE7ubYBoy!

3/10
The view below is from an analysis focusing on sequences with a mutation at 484. It shows all the samples in the 2 variants (20B/S.484K & 20J/501Y.V3) & how they're related. More closely related = closer together (very, very roughly).

4/10
We can colour these samples by region to see where they're from. As we expect - most are in Brazil! A few are in Argentina (also red).

5/10

https://t.co/Cw5u2kuATa
If we look just at 20B/S.484K (top cluster), we can see there are clusters of sequences in the UK, Canada & the USA, and exports to Norway, Malaysia, & Australia.

6/10

https://t.co/D3AE3V9GOw
Importantly, the clusters in the USA & Canada are identical (though each country also has an additional imports), so they may be from a group of travellers returning, rather than local transmission (left pic). They also date from Nov - so not recent (right pic).

7/10
We can see 8 UK sequences in the 20B/S.484K cluster. There are 2 clusters, but neither are identical. They could be from a common exposure (same part of Brazil, same travel group), or possibly be local transmission. These samples are from Nov & Dec.

8/10

https://t.co/w5oISsCFYb
If we look at 20J/501Y.V3, we can see that sequences only are found in Brazil and Japan (known travel to Brazil), but no other countries.

9/10

https://t.co/4lzibcXzmW
Hopefully, this thread helps distinguish what the '2 variants' are that are circulating in Brazil, and from which there have been samples detected in the UK.

And, I hope it shows how phylogenetics can help us 'tell viruses apart' & follow them as they move & change!

10/10
To add: why are scientists concerned about these variants circulating primarily in Brazil?

@BillHanage write a fantastic thread here:

11/10

https://t.co/qvF92BV7CZ

More from Dr Emma Hodcroft

🎉Happy New Year!🎉

To kick off 2021, here's an update on:
- S:N501 variants (501Y.V1/V2) with data from 31 Dec 2020
- 69/70del variants
- 20A.EU1 variant (most prevalent variant in Europe)

(Here are some fireworks that look a bit like phylogenies! 🎆)

1/23


The latest sequences from 31 Dec show new sequences in the S:N501Y.V1 variant (originating from SE England) from Netherlands, Denmark, Australia, Italy, Canada, the USA, Germany, Switzerland, & India.

2/23

S:N501 link
https://t.co/TfHfPgBEBS

Image link
https://t.co/3aCKv1pAcI


Canada, Germany, & Switzerland all have sequences that fall in 501Y.V1 for the first time, scattered across the tree.

3/23


The USA also has its first 2 sequences that fall in 501Y.V1, from Colorado & California. India also had its first 3 sequences, also from different regions.

In both cases, the sequences are not connected, indicating separate introductions.

4/23


In countries with previous sequences:

6 new sequences from Netherlands, in orange/yellow (green are older).
1 is clearly separate - zooming in (& in divergence view, coloured by country) it is harder to determine the relationship between the others.

5/23

More from Society

So, as the #MegaMillions jackpot reaches a record $1.6B and #Powerball reaches $620M, here's my advice about how to spend the money in a way that will truly set you, your children and their kids up for life.

Ready?

Create a private foundation and give it all away. 1/

Let's stipulate first that lottery winners often have a hard time. Being publicly identified makes you a target for "friends" and "family" who want your money, as well as for non-family grifters and con men. 2/

The stress can be damaging, even deadly, and Uncle Sam takes his huge cut. Plus, having a big pool of disposable income can be irresistible to people not accustomed to managing wealth.
https://t.co/fiHsuJyZwz 3/

Meanwhile, the private foundation is as close as we come to Downton Abbey and the landed aristocracy in this country. It's a largely untaxed pot of money that grows significantly over time, and those who control them tend to entrench their own privileges and those of their kin. 4

Here's how it works for a big lotto winner:

1. Win the prize.
2. Announce that you are donating it to the YOUR NAME HERE Family Foundation.
3. Receive massive plaudits in the press. You will be a folk hero for this decision.
4. Appoint only trusted friends/family to board. 5/

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